Double A Breakdown: Week 16 vs Chiefs

[Andy]

Haven't posted one of these in awhile on the forum:

 

 

The 9-5 Indianapolis Colts will travel to Kansas City to face one of the most explosive teams in the league, the 11-3 Kansas City Chiefs. Last year's matchup was a close one and the Colts walked away with the 7 point victory. The Chiefs are much different this year and should be a tough challenge. Both teams have clinched the playoffs, and this matchup should be a preview of what's to come in 2 weeks.

 

 

 

 

What the Colts Need to do to Win

 

The Colts will have a tough matchup in Kansas City, with a tough crowd and tough weather. The weather they can't control, but to eliminate the crowd, they should get the ball early, stay on the field and keep their offense off the field. This is a crazy crowd and they need to take them out of it early.

 

Andrew Luck will be called to make plays through the air and on the ground. For once, this is a game where he will have to have an impact on the ground. Luck will have to be smart with the ball, because this is an elite defense that thrives off turnovers. They will take advantage of Luck if he makes mistakes. Luck will need to find TY Hilton (if healthy) and he'll need to be a focal point in the offense. If he can't go, Da'Rick Rogers, Griff Whalen and Lavon Brazill will need to all make up and have equally big parts in the offense. Fleener will have to become a big focal point as well and will need to find the right matchups (and a lot of his great mismatches come when he's in the slot). Luck will have to do a lot of work, and they should tell him to be free with his legs; let him use them often. The Colts need this win and Luck will need to be on his A-game if they expect to win.

 

The running game will be extremely important in this game. The weather will not be nice and in order for the Colts to effectively move the ball down the field, they'll need to have some help from Trent Richardson and Donald Brown (if he plays). They'll have to mix up the types of runs and they should really try to run it to the outside to Houston's or his backup's side. They need to find the weaknesses in their defense when it comes to stopping the run, and running it to the outside and in between the tackle and guard opposite to Derrick Johnson's side are the glaring weaknesses. They need to attack there.

 

The offensive line will have an extremely tough challenge this game. They'll have good players coming at them from all different angles. Tackles Anthony Castonzo and Gosder Cherilus will have to face Justin Houston (if he plays) and Tamba Hali, which is a scary duo. The interior o-line will have to watch for Dontari Poe, who has been a good pass rusher this year. Mike Devito and Tyson Jackson are run stoppers and the one on the strong-side of the play needs to be doubled teamed. The interior O-line will also need to watch out for Derrick Johnson, who likes to blitz at times. They will have to watch out for a lot of blitzes and they will need to be able to identify it and account for it, because it will happen and they will need to be prepared for it. They should even have an extra blocker on the line on most plays because the pressure will get to Luck if there's only 5 guys blocking.

 

The offensive philosophy should be to establish the run early, try and get something going there and then they should really start to get Andrew Luck going and then leave the ball in his hands in the 2nd half. They should really start slinging it in the 2nd half, rain or shine, because they need to find a way to get points on the board. They'll need to put up 25+ points to win this game.

 

As for the defense, if the Colts can shut down Jamaal Charles, they will win this game. It doesn't matter if the game is in KC, if they can stop Charles, they will win this game.

 

The problem is, if you stop Jamaal Charles on the ground, you have to watch out about his receiving ability. This guy can take a screen pass to the house, or he can run a route 40 yards down the field make a great catch, avoid tacklers and score a touchdown. If you want to see how good he can receive the ball, look at what he did against the Raiders last week. They'll need to stop him on the ground and then they'll have to put Vontae Davis against him through the air.

 

The defensive ends will have to draw one on ones throughout the game as it will give them an advantage vs the run and in the passing game. Against the run, if a running back comes their way, it'll make it easier to break off the blocker and tackle the ball carrier. Double teams are almost impossible to break away from. Aubrayo Franklin should try and draw double teams, which in turn will create some holes, making the linebackers' life easier.

 

The linebackers will be crucial in shutting down Jamaal Charles in the running game. They'll be responsible for playing contain against him and for setting the edge, as well as stopping any inside runs. However, I've noticed with Charles that he likes to run it off-tackle and to the outside more often than not, and that's where the Colts' focus should be, on making him run in between the guards. Statistically, according to Pro Football Focus, Jamaal Charles runs the ball better to the left side of the offensive line, and the Colts shouldn't assume that going into the game, but it's something to watch for in the game. Jerrell Freeman should spy on Charles the whole game and be his shadow, following him everywhere. They need to watch out for screen passes and must identify it quickly. He needs to continue to adapt as the game goes on. They must do everything they can to not allow Charles to have a big game. They need to slow him down at the line of scrimmage and they need to get contact on him before he gets past his offensive line.

 

The secondary will have two main focuses in the game: Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. Charles is a serious threat in the receiving game and you will see him play out wide like a receiver. Bowe is also a good receiver and has proven to be a threat in the redzone. Vontae Davis should be placed against him and Bowe is a physical receiver so trying to out-muscle him probably won't work. They should play off him a bit and make him have to work. As for Donnie Avery, the other wide receiver, they can be physical against him, but they need to watch out because he can take off and speed past you and create a big play. They need to play to those receivers' weaknesses. As for Jamaal Charles, the linebackers will do a lot of the covering, but if he goes out wide, the cornerback should treat him like a receiver and jam him, play him tight. They need to be physical against him.

 

On special teams, and this week I'm putting more emphasis on it. They need to really be wary of both their return teams. Dexter McCluster is an all-star punt returner and Knile Davis is a star kick returner. Pat McAfee should try and angle his punts towards the sidelines and try and get some air under it. He cannot punt a line driver and give McCluster room to run. He should either angle it out of bounds or put some air under it and take some distance off. On the kickoffs, they will need to have their outside guys contain the returner inside and these guys need to stay in their lanes. Their TDs come when the "chasing" team breaks apart and run out of their lanes. THEY NEED TO STAY DISCIPLINED!

 

 

 

 

 

 

What the Chiefs Need to do to Win

 

On offense, the Chiefs have to get Jamaal Charles going and that means that they'll have to utilize a run heavy attack. There's suppose to be bad weather tomorrow, which gives them more incentive to give Charles the rock and let him pound it. They need to get him going if they intend on winning this game. Jamaal Charles has proven to be the best receiver on the team as well, so they should not be afraid to put him out wide and give him some patterns. What also worked is screen passes and calling 5 of them in the game needs to happen. Their offense revolves around him, and in a game where the weather will be bad, they need to get him going.

 

Alex Smith will need to be patient with the ball and not get aggressive with it. If they go run heavy, they should have a conservative short passing attack, and not have much reliance on Smith. He should try and target Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery on the short-to intermediate passes. What the Chiefs have to watch out for in the passing game are the unorthodox blitzes the Colts have used the last 2 weeks. They've been blitzing Antoine Bethea and some linebackers and it has worked. A play must not start without the offensive line recognizing what the linebackers and safeties are doing. They need to be wary of blitzes.

 

On defense, they need to find ways of stacking the middle and getting pressure on Andrew Luck. To get pressure on Andrew Luck, they'll need to have Houston (if he plays) and Hali in full force. They won't have an easy test, but they'll need to have these guys go one on one against the tackles. They cannot be double teamed or chipped or they'll be stopped. To avoid them being doubled teamed, the Chiefs should bring blitzes up the middle and make the Colts have to focus on the interior part. They need to give those outside guys one on one matchups.

 

As for stopping the run, they should be stacking the box a lot. The Colts are expected to run the ball a lot, because that's their offensive mentality and the weather is expected to be bad which would mean more emphasis on establishing the run. The Chiefs should try and bring Eric Berry into the box and give them another "linebacker-like" player that can help them shut down the run, and even the short passes.

 

On offense, they'll need to find every way possible of getting Jamaal Charles going and to have a conservative short passing attack. On defense, they'll need to blitz the interior part of the line a lot to give Houston (if he plays) and Hali one on one matchups on the side.

 

 

 

 

Intriguing Matchups

 

The most intriguing matchup has to be the Colts' front 7 vs Jamaal Charles. Jamaal Charles completely exploded last week and had 5 touchdowns. The Colts front 7 will have the responsibility of shutting him down in the backfield and that will include playing complain and stacking the box. They'll also need to watch out for him when he plays out wide. This actually includes the whole defense.

 

 

 

 

Bold Prediction

 

Jamaal Charles will have under 120 yards total.

 

 

 

 

Prediction

 

Kansas City Chiefs 24 vs Indianapolis Colts 20

 

 

[ColtsSociety]

Great Post!

[SLILLINGTON10]

Is Toler playing? I didn't see him on the "out" list

[Bluefire4]

I

 

Is Toler playing? I didn't see him on the "out" list

Yes I believe he is.

[Bluefire4]

I predict again (like last week) that the Colts score on their first drive even against this vaunted Kansas City defense. Da'Rick will also have a long touchdown pass.

[IndyScribe]

I predict again (like last week) that the Colts score on their first drive even against this vaunted Kansas City defense. Da'Rick will also have a long touchdown pass.

And Richardson is going to have a breakout game.