Double A Breakdown -- Week 4 Vs Bucs

[Andy]

Week 4 -- Colts vs Buccaneers

What the Colts Need To Do To Win

The Colts are going to have to run the ball well to win. They need to at least get 100 yards rushing. The reason we have to do this is because we have a quarterback making his first start. If the running game doesn't produce, the Colts have to rely on this quarterback, and having all that pressure can lead to bad decisions that in the end could cost us the game. Curtis Painter is also going to have to make some key throws, especially on 3rd downs. That was something Kerry really struggled with, and we want Curtis to do well. With all that being said, Curtis has Reggie Wayne, who seems to be Curtis' number 1 fan, and Curtis' favourite target, as we all saw in the preseason. On defense, we need to stop the run. Their passing game has been mediocre at best with Josh Freeman having 2 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Worry more about the run, but don't forget about the pass. We need to stop LaGarrette Blount, but we have done well against the running backs in the last two weeks. Holding them to about 120 yards total (both weeks combined). We did exceptionally well against Mendenhall, and hopefully Angerer can stop Blount like he stopped Mendenhall... 13 tackles against Mendenhall. Watch out for the deep ball for Arrelious Been, and the short pass to Preston Parker and Kellen Winslow. Mike Williams is also a guy to keep an eye out for. We stack up well against this young tough Bucs team.

What The Buccaneers Need to Do To Win

On offense, all they need to do is run the ball well. They run the ball well, they get the first downs, and they don't let the Colts' offense on the field. They would like to have a good game from Freeman, but it's not necessary if Blount plays well. Their defense needs to stop the run. They stop the run, they stop their offense. Odds are, Curtis Painter can't win the game on his own, so he will need to rely on the running game. Stop that running game. They've really improved at running the ball, so don't underestimate them. Also, you should constantly blitz and pressure Painter, making him nervous and making him throw stupid passes. We saw last week against the Steelers that if they blitz him they'll sack him and probably fumble it. They need to have an aggressive defensive gameplan. Finally, if you get in the redzone, don't settle for field goals, you have a bunch of great red-zone players, go for the TD.

Breakout Performers/ Key Matchup

For the Colts, it has to be Joseph Addai. If he has a good game, like last week or even better than last week, I'm confident the Colts will win. If he doesn't, then odds are the Colts will lose.

For the Buccaneers, it's the O-line. They need to protect Josh Freeman, because Freeney and Mathis are better than ever, and are sacking and forcing fumbles every game! Also, Drake Nevis is really coming along and so is Antonio Johnson so Davin Joseph and Jeremy Zuttah will need to block will and open up holes inside the line.

The Key Matchup is LeGarrette Blount vs Pat Angerer. Last week, Pat Angerer had Rashard Mendenhall's number, tackling him more than 11 or 12 times. That's incredible. If Blount could win vs Angerer, that means Blount has a great game running, and if Angerer wins then the defense stops another big running back.

What I Think Will Happen

Let me start off by saying that the Colts will win this game. I think Curtis Painter will go 14 - 26 for 187 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT. The offense will do well because of Joe Addai. Addai will rush for 97 yards, and have 45 yards receiving with 1 rushing TD. The big receiver will be Reggie Wayne, who will have 6 catches for 72 yards. Pierre Garcon will have 2 catches for 27 yards and Austin Collie will have 2 catches for 13 yards and Dallas Clark will have 3 catches for 20 yards and a TD. The offensive line will provide good protection for most of the game, but Jeff Linkenbach and Anthony Castonzo will have some slip ups. On defense, the Colts will again stop the run. Pat Angerer will record 11 tackles, 6 against Blount. LaGarrette Blount will have 20 rushes for 54 yards. Josh Freeman will however have a pretty good game, going 21 - 28 and 253 yards and 1 TD. The main problem for the Bucs will be their red-zone offense. The Colts red-zone D will stop them and hold them to 3 field goals instead of 3 touchdowns. There will be no interceptions this game, but Jacob Lacey will have a good game, and I'm not joking. He will hold Mike Williams to 3 catches for 31 yards. Jerraud Powers will have mediocre game letting Arrelious Benn catch 9 passes for 95 yards. Kellen Winslow will have a good game too; he'll have 5 catches for 56 yards and 1 TD. The rest of the catches will go Ernest Graham and Preston Parker. The Colts' pass defense will be mediocre, but the run defense will be great for another week.

Prediction

Colts 20 vs Buccaneers 16

Last Time They Played

2007 NFL Season -- Week 5

Colts 33 vs Buccaneers 14

[BmoreColt]

What the Colts Need To Do To Win:

Tampa Bay has a very underappreciated and one of the more under rated defensive lines in football. They completely shut down Turner and the physical Atlanta Falcons offensive line Sunday. I don’t think the Colts are going to have this success running the football, but I also don’t think the Colts are going to have a lot of success throwing on the perimeter, the Bucs have a good secondary, personally I think your on to something with Addai in the passing game, as I think the Colts will have success working the middle of the field and inside the numbers.

The Colts D line needs to get the same penetration from the interior of the line to collapse the pocket on Freeman, as Freeney and Mathis should be able to contain on the outside. This will also help penetrate the backfield on Blount and keep him from having clean running lanes.

What the Buccaneers Need to Do To Win:

The Bucs need to create balance on offense. Running the ball will open up the passing game and vice versa. They need to throw the ball around, which doesn’t seem too difficult a task to accomplish against the Colts this season. You are really sleeping on Freeman and the Tampa aerial attack, especially with how bad this Colt’s secondary is!

Breakout Performers/ Key Matchup:

Colts breakout performer will be Dallas Clarke and Joseph Addai in the passing game.

Bucs breakout performer will be Legarette Blount and Mike Williams on the ground and in the air.

Key Matchup is the Colts secondary vs. Bucs Williams, Benn, Winslow

What I Think Will Happen:

Colts will be beat in the secondary forcing a drop into coverage for the safeties and linebackers opening up the running game for the Bucs. The Colts offense will struggle but will find some success working the middle of the field, Bucs lost their quarterback on defense Barrett Rudd to free agency this year, which has shown to be a key loss. This Tampa team is a lot better than you are giving them credit for on both sides of the ball, they will jump out to an early lead and the game will be over quick. This is not a team where the Colts are going to get their first win, sorry

Prediction:

Colts 13 – Bucs 27

[MAC]

The biggest problem with it being Painters first start is that they may end up being too predictable. While they need to establish the run, they can't run on every first down, or very quickly they may find themselves passing on every third down - and that's when the big mistakes are likely to happen. They'd be better off using the "hurry up" like they would with Peyton, and try to take what the defense is giving.

I'm guessing they'll take a shot down field early just to try to keep the defense from settling in. It would be nice if it worked too. I've never seen Freeman but I understand that he's very mobile. I imagine that that would be of less use to them if we have the lead.

I'm certainly looking forward to this game more than any since January. Here's hoping we can pull it out. Can you imagine how much pressure that would release!

[swflacoltsfans]

We need to limit turnovers. Painter can't fumble the ball away or throw interceptions.

[YOUNGRY35]

What the Colts Need To Do To Win:

Tampa Bay has a very underappreciated and one of the more under rated defensive lines in football. They completely shut down Turner and the physical Atlanta Falcons offensive line Sunday. I don’t think the Colts are going to have this success running the football, but I also don’t think the Colts are going to have a lot of success throwing on the perimeter, the Bucs have a good secondary, personally I think your on to something with Addai in the passing game, as I think the Colts will have success working the middle of the field and inside the numbers.

The Colts D line needs to get the same penetration from the interior of the line to collapse the pocket on Freeman, as Freeney and Mathis should be able to contain on the outside. This will also help penetrate the backfield on Blount and keep him from having clean running lanes.

What the Buccaneers Need to Do To Win:

The Bucs need to create balance on offense. Running the ball will open up the passing game and vice versa. They need to throw the ball around, which doesn’t seem too difficult a task to accomplish against the Colts this season. You are really sleeping on Freeman and the Tampa aerial attack, especially with how bad this Colt’s secondary is!

Breakout Performers/ Key Matchup:

Colts breakout performer will be Dallas Clarke and Joseph Addai in the passing game.

Bucs breakout performer will be Legarette Blount and Mike Williams on the ground and in the air.

Key Matchup is the Colts secondary vs. Bucs Williams, Benn, Winslow

What I Think Will Happen:

Colts will be beat in the secondary forcing a drop into coverage for the safeties and linebackers opening up the running game for the Bucs. The Colts offense will struggle but will find some success working the middle of the field, Bucs lost their quarterback on defense Barrett Rudd to free agency this year, which has shown to be a key loss. This Tampa team is a lot better than you are giving them credit for on both sides of the ball, they will jump out to an early lead and the game will be over quick. This is not a team where the Colts are going to get their first win, sorry

Prediction:

Colts 13 – Bucs 27

Greetings from Tampa!

I just wanted to touch on the sentence I bolded. Most people who are Bucs fans ABSOLUTELY love that Barrett Ruud is gone. The guy was slow and soft.....He would make Ryan Torain look like Earl Cambell on the field...He racked up a ton of tackles but always 5-10 yards downfield...He never made any splash plays and frankly, he sucked at tackling. With that said, TAMPA is even more excited about Ruud's replacement, Mason Foster......This guy shows resemblances to Ray Lewis....Very instinctive, nasty, physical player......Looking at both Ruud and Foster through 3 games...It is pretty clear we do not miss Ruud one bit!

Ruud: 20 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 forced fumbles

Foster: 22 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 foced fumble

Other than that my friend, you hit it spot on with your analysis!

I will just throw my .02 out there as a Bucs fan and say what I think we have to do to beat the Colts (I haven't followed you guys enough this year to know your strengths and weaknesses so I'll leave the Colts breakdown to the Colts fans ;))

On offense: Not a fan at all at our offensive player caller (he is Jon Gruden 2.0 except not as smart and in my opinion, limits Freeman as a QB and athlete)....He ditches the run far too often and doesn't spread the field enough. With that said, HE HAS been improving this season. Each game he has called has gotten better. WHEN THE BUCS ARE NOT ABLE TO RUN THE FOOTBALL WE STRUGGLE ON OFFENSE. But when we find success early from running the ball...watch out because Olson really thrives off that balance of running/throwing. If you guys can stop Blount (big IF but sometimes WE DONT EVEN GIVE HIM THE BALL ENOUGH) then you will limit Greg Olson's playcalling..

Defense: Our defensive line BY FAR had its best showing against ATL last week. McCoy looked like the guy we drafted with the #3 overall pick with 6 QB pressures and .5 sack, Clayborn also added a sack while almost ripping Matt Ryan's head off and our "Clay Matthews" player Dekoda Watson added a constant edge rush.....THE PROBLEM IS, WHO KNOWS IF THEY WILL BRING IT THIS WEEK AGAINST THE COLTS......The first two games our D-line wasn't NEAR the dominance it was last week...So who knows....We are still the youngest team in the NFL. Our SS Cody Grimm had a season ending injury last week so I will be looking at our back up vs. Dallas Clark....If I were the Colts I would definitely want to take advantage of that. Our back up is actually a better coverage safety than Grimm so I'm not too worried about it.

Special teams: Just expect a lot of touch backs....Our Kick off guy isn't allowing any returns this year. Our return man is a great threat not only in the return game but you will also see him as our slot reciever and probably Freeman's GO-TO guy in 3rd downs if K2 is covered.

Final Thoughts: I believe this is the week that the Bucs connect on all cylinders. In my opinion, I just don't see the Colts scoring many points with Painter. But who knows...I've been wrong before and may be wrong again...You guys still have weapons and Mathis/Freeney combo is the best starting DE's in the league. I'm definitely not taking this game lightly. Go Bucs!

[AlaskaColtsFan]

Youngry, welcome to the forum. It is always nice to see opposing fans contribute to an intelligent discussion instead of comming here to troll.

[YOUNGRY35]

Youngry, welcome to the forum. It is always nice to see opposing fans contribute to an intelligent discussion instead of comming here to troll.

Thanks TW.....One of the more intelligent team message boards I've visited this year.....Try talking football with Falcon fans! They are impossible to reason with lol

[shecolt]

Youngry, welcome to the forum. It is always nice to see opposing fans contribute to an intelligent discussion instead of comming here to troll.

Couldn't agree with you more, Timberwolf.

Welcome, Youngry!

[jgstriker]

I just don't see this week as one we can win... But otherwise a pretty decent analysis by most of you....

Except I just don't see Garcon having 2 catches for 27 yards. I really am thinking more like 3 catches for 22.

Plus I think Angerer will only be able to tackle Blount like 5 times 6 is just pushing it for me...