Colts at Browns: Quick look at unit matchup stats/ranks

[EastStreet]

Browns Offense vs (Colts Defense)
YPG: #14 vs (#1)
PassYPG: #30 vs (#1)
RushYPG: #1 vs (#4)
PPG: #4 vs  (#1)

 

Comments:
1. While the Browns are ranked 30th in PYPG, Mayfield is still a very respectalbe 12th in QBR, and they are tied for 8th in passing TDs.
2. Cleaveland is one of only 6 teams to throw it less than the Colts (we are 26th, they are 28th in attempts).
3. OBJ has 3 TDs, tied for 9th (one more and he'd be tied for 4th). Both he and Landry will be a test for our DBs.
4. While Chubb being out is a huge loss, Hunt is very capable, and still averaging 5.5 YPC. D'Ernest Johnson, their RB3 is also very capable. putting up close to 100 vs Dallas. Interestingly enough, he sat behind Mack at USF. 
5. Cleveland is the #2 RZ O, but only 20th on third down. Better shut the door instead of bending too much. 
6. Definitely the best OL we'll meet thus far. Top 5, and won OL of the week last week. Two of their OLs named to team of the week. Teller, their RG, is pancaking guys like Q (used to) and was named offensive player of the week (not OL of the week, player of the week.
7. Colts have allowed the least EPA since W2, and the Browns have the 3rd most EPA since W2. 

 

Vid of Teller.

 

Good article from PFF is interested.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-4-pff-team-of-the-week-key-takeaways-weekly-awards-and-more

Prediction:
Browns Run O vs Colts Run D
Great match up of Top 5 vs Top 5. I highly doubt we hold these guys to our average (77 YPG). The absense of Chubb helps our cause, but the absense of Leonard likely evens things up a bit. Likely we nearly split the difference between their average 204 YPG and ours 77 YPG, so going with 130ish. I'll be very happy with that or anything below. We've been consistently solid vs the run the last couple years, so really not worried here.

 

Browns Pass O vs Colts Pass D 
This looks on the surface like a total mismatch of #1 pass D vs #30 pass O. Our #1 pass D should roll, right? Mayfield is #12 in QBR and top 10 in passing TDs. The QBs we've faced thus far are 26th, 27th, 28th, in QBR, and the lone QB inside the top 20 is Minshew at 19th in week 1 (and we all know we made Minshew look like a surgeon). We also haven't faced anywhere close to a threesome like OBJ, Landry, and Hooper. Mayfield is averaging 182 YPG, and we're giving up 159 YPG. My guess is he's a bit over 200 this game, and attacking us short like he did vs Dallas. If he's 250 or more without junk yards, we're likely in trouble. Even if their yardage passing is low, they're still capable of putting up passing scores. Likely a test for us, and thank god our DBs seem healthy. Going to guess Blackmon and Willis will be tested early. 

 

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Browns Defense vs (Colts Offense)
YPG:  #25 vs (#21)
PassYPG:  #30 vs (#18)
RushYPG:  #5 vs (#15)
PPG:  #27 vs (#17)

 

Comments:
1. Cleavland is ranked right after us giving up only 92 YPG rushing, 20 less than Chicago who we played last week.
2. Ogunjobi (DT) is out, but he didn't set the world on fire. Not sure how much that will help our run or pass game.
3. Garrett is truly legit. I'd be a little surprised if he doesn't line up over AC's replacment at least part of time. Not really worried about he remainder of their front 7.
4. Ward is the only legit DB, so as long as we're not forcing it his way, no reason we can't throw for thier average which is 310. Not that we need to throw for 310, but we should be able to.
5. Cleveland's 3rd down D is 26th. Not as bad as our 30th ranked 3rd down offense, but I'm going to guess we improve our standing here. 
6. Similar to #5 above, their 25th ranked RZ D should make our 28th ranked RZ O look a bit bitter.

 

Prediction
Browns Run D vs Colts Run O
This is probably not the game to try and force the run. Cleveland only gave up 111 yards against the Ravens, one of the best rushing teams in the league. Do we need to keep them honest, of course we do. Do we try and run it down their throats without AC, I hope not.

 

Browns Pass D vs Colts Pass O
Browns are giving up 310 YPG passing and ranked 30th. Given they are the 5th best vs the run, is there any reason not to pass more tomorrow? River's quick release should nulify Garret for the most part, and AC being out.

 

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Game Prediction: 
Colts: 30
Browns: 27

 

Bonus prediction - if we run Hines up the middle a bunch in the redzone and lose, EastStreet might have to replace a TV or two on Monday.
 

[2006Coltsbestever]

15 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Browns Offense vs (Colts Defense)
YPG: #14 vs (#1)
PassYPG: #30 vs (#1)
RushYPG: #1 vs (#4)
PPG: #4 vs  (#1)

 

Comments:
1. While the Browns are ranked 30th in PYPG, Mayfield is still a very respectalbe 12th in QBR, and they are tied for 8th in passing TDs.
2. Cleaveland is one of only 6 teams to throw it less than the Colts (we are 26th, they are 28th in attempts).
3. OBJ has 3 TDs, tied for 9th (one more and he'd be tied for 4th). Both he and Landry will be a test for our DBs.
4. While Chubb being out is a huge loss, Hunt is very capable, and still averaging 5.5 YPC. D'Ernest Johnson, their RB3 is also very capable. putting up close to 100 vs Dallas. Interestingly enough, he sat behind Mack at USF. 
5. Cleveland is the #2 RZ O, but only 20th on third down. Better shut the door instead of bending too much. 
6. Definitely the best OL we'll meet thus far. Top 5, and won OL of the week last week. Two of their OLs named to team of the week. Teller, their RG, is pancaking guys like Q (used to) and was named offensive player of the week (not OL of the week, player of the week.
7. Colts have allowed the least EPA since W2, and the Browns have the 3rd most EPA since W2. 

 

Vid of Teller.

 

Good article from PFF is interested.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-4-pff-team-of-the-week-key-takeaways-weekly-awards-and-more

Prediction:
Browns Run O vs Colts Run D
Great match up of Top 5 vs Top 5. I highly doubt we hold these guys to our average (77 YPG). The absense of Chubb helps our cause, but the absense of Leonard likely evens things up a bit. Likely we nearly split the difference between their average 204 YPG and ours 77 YPG, so going with 130ish. I'll be very happy with that or anything below. We've been consistently solid vs the run the last couple years, so really not worried here.

 

Browns Pass O vs Colts Pass D 
This looks on the surface like a total mismatch of #1 pass D vs #30 pass O. Our #1 pass D should roll, right? Mayfield is #12 in QBR and top 10 in passing TDs. The QBs we've faced thus far are 26th, 27th, 28th, in QBR, and the lone QB inside the top 20 is Minshew at 19th in week 1 (and we all know we made Minshew look like a surgeon). We also haven't faced anywhere close to a threesome like OBJ, Landry, and Hooper. Mayfield is averaging 182 YPG, and we're giving up 159 YPG. My guess is he's a bit over 200 this game, and attacking us short like he did vs Dallas. If he's 250 or more without junk yards, we're likely in trouble. Even if their yardage passing is low, they're still capable of putting up passing scores. Likely a test for us, and thank god our DBs seem healthy. Going to guess Blackmon and Willis will be tested early. 

 

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Browns Defense vs (Colts Offense)
YPG:  #25 vs (#21)
PassYPG:  #30 vs (#18)
RushYPG:  #5 vs (#15)
PPG:  #27 vs (#17)

 

Comments:
1. Cleavland is ranked right after us giving up only 92 YPG rushing, 20 less than Chicago who we played last week.
2. Ogunjobi (DT) is out, but he didn't set the world on fire. Not sure how much that will help our run or pass game.
3. Garrett is truly legit. I'd be a little surprised if he doesn't line up over AC's replacment at least part of time. Not really worried about he remainder of their front 7.
4. Ward is the only legit DB, so as long as we're not forcing it his way, no reason we can't throw for thier average which is 310. Not that we need to throw for 310, but we should be able to.
5. Cleveland's 3rd down D is 26th. Not as bad as our 30th ranked 3rd down offense, but I'm going to guess we improve our standing here. 
6. Similar to #5 above, their 25th ranked RZ D should make our 28th ranked RZ O look a bit bitter.

 

Prediction
Browns Run D vs Colts Run O
This is probably not the game to try and force the run. Cleveland only gave up 111 yards against the Ravens, one of the best rushing teams in the league. Do we need to keep them honest, of course we do. Do we try and run it down their throats without AC, I hope not.

 

Browns Pass D vs Colts Pass O
Browns are giving up 310 YPG passing and ranked 30th. Given they are the 5th best vs the run, is there any reason not to pass more tomorrow? River's quick release should nulify Garret for the most part, and AC being out.

 

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Game Prediction: 
Colts: 30
Browns: 27

 

Bonus prediction - if we run Hines up the middle a bunch in the redzone and lose, EastStreet might have to replace a TV or two on Monday.
 

Great post, I laughed because of your last comment. I have us winning as well 23-20 in OT. 

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Great post, I laughed because of your last comment. I have us winning as well 23-20 in OT. 

Thank bud. I'm more nervous for this game than last week. I have a few buds that are Browns fans too, so need this one.

Really interested to see what both sides of the ball do.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Thank bud. I'm more nervous for this game than last week. I have a few buds that are Browns fans too, so need this one.

Really interested to see what both sides of the ball do.

See last week was big for me because I have 2 friends that are diehard Bears fans and I work with one too. Because of the Browns capability of putting up points in bundles, I think this game will be tougher though. No Leonard or AC, that is concerning. 

[Mr.Debonair]

Very detailed post! Great stuff. Not sure if this a weekly thing but it def should be. Thanks man!!!!

[EastStreet]

17 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

See last week was big for me because I have 2 friends that are diehard Bears fans and I work with one too. Because of the Browns capability of putting up points in bundles, I think this game will be tougher though. No Leonard or AC, that is concerning. 

I have family that are Bears fans so it was good for me too. Crickets from them lol...

10 minutes ago, Mr.Debonair said:

Very detailed post! Great stuff. Not sure if this a weekly thing but it def should be. Thanks man!!!!

Thanks Mr. D. I do plan on doing this weekly. Was just waiting on a decent sample size of stats for this format. I did a few other posts for previous games, but used last years ranks, and focused more on personnel changes. Going to keep it simple like this going forward now that we have a good sample, and most should be aware of who has been added/lost. Let me know if there's anything specific you want to see.