Double A Breakdown: Week 10 vs Rams

[Andy]

The 6-2 Indianapolis Colts come back home to play the Sam Bradford-less 3-6 St Louis Rams. The Colts are on 2 game winning streak, whereas the Rams are on a 3 game losing streak. However, both sides have been receiving some great performance from their playmakers, which means that this match could get interesting. You see this matchup once every 4 years so take advantage!

 

What the Colts have to do to Win

The Colts are heavy favorites in this game, but if they play lousy and make mistakes, they will almost certainly lose. They need to be sharp, these aren't the Jaguars.

On offense, the Colts should try and have a balanced attack. Luck doesn't need to have the ball in his hands 40 times to win this game. The Rams don't have a great run defense, and that evident last week against the Titans. 

When Andrew Luck does have the ball, he will need to be efficient with the ball. He doesn't have to be overly aggressive, but he needs to be efficient. This means that he has to be on the same page as his receivers, and vice versa. What killed the Colts last week, especially in the first half, was the amount of drops by the receivers. It was just ridiculous, and Luck actually made a lot of bad throws too. He needs to be on point with the ball, and he needs to give the receivers a chance. If he gives the receivers a good chance of getting the ball and making a play, he's done his job. The rest is up to the receivers, and if they drop the ball, they cost the team (and I hope they get killed for it on the sidelines). Luck should try and find TY Hilton and Coby Fleener, because these are the 2 guys that for the rest of the season will be the main guys when it comes to receiving. Fleener had some big plays last week and TY was a star. Both are improving as possesion receivers and I'd go as for to saying that they are reliable receivers. He needs to find the guys he's most comfortable with, and the guys he feels the most comfortable with are TY Hilton and Coby Fleener.

When it comes to running the ball, it's going to come down to the interior offensive line. If they can block well and open up some holes, I think we can see a breakout game for Trent Richardson. Look at Chris Johnson last week. In terms of what Trent and Donald can control, they're going to have to be on their game and have to use their vision to spot opportunities. This is a St Louis Rams defense that disguises a lot of things, so not only does the quarterback need to spot it, but the running backs as well. They can't just run into pileups, they need to start reacting more. Donald Brown has done that better in the last month than Trent Richardson. Both of them will need to show up in order for the Colts to fully and properly the balanced offensive attack. Finally, and maybe most importantly, I would like to see the Colts give Trent Richardson more opportunities, either as a receiver or a runner. Give him more outside runs or screen passes. It's obvious that in space this guy is outstanding. Give that man the rock.

When it comes to the offensive line, I mentioned earlier that the interior line will be extremely crucial when it comes to opening lanes for the inside running game. People give Richardson a lot of crap for being unable to rush up the gut, but he can't do that because the interior offensive line fails to open up lanes. They all get clogged up. As for the pass protection... Anthony Castonzo and Gosder Cherilus will have to be on their games. They will be going up against one of the pass rushing duos in the league in Robert Quinn and Chris Long. Both are animals that can change games. Don't believe me? Look at the Seahawks game where each of them had 3 sacks. They must be contained if the Colts want to have a passing game.

As for the defense...

The main focus has to be on Zac Stacy, who is the only reason this Rams offense is respectable. This guy gets better every week. They have to contain Stacy, and if they do, there's a good chance they keep the Rams to single digits. 

The front 7 will be crucial this game, and will be the guys that will have to stop Stacy. The defensive line will have to clog up lanes and make running it on the inside impossible. If they can clog up the middle, their only option for running the ball will be to go to the outside. That's what they want to do: to force Stacy to the outside. Pass pressure isn't the main worry, but they should really bring the heat on 3rd down, where you can expect to see pass most of the time. 

The linebackers will be crucial in this game. The outside guys will need to find a way to get pressure on Clemens. If they get consistent pressure on him, game over. Here's what I want to see from the coaches. If Robert Mathis is not performing on one side, they should move him over to the outside. Mathis was shut down last week, and they didn't even move him over to the outside. Getting pressure on the quarterback is all about finding the right matchups. If your best rusher is in a bad matchup (against Jake Long, who is, well who knows), they have to move him to the outside. They have to move him around and find what works. As for the inside guys, Jerrell Freeman and Pat Angerer will be responsible for following Stacy and covering the middle "flat" area of the field. If the defensive line properly shuts down the middle, these will be the guys that will have to scrap over and play contain. The inside linebackers must watch Stacy the whole game.

Then in the secondary, it should be a relatively straight forward matchup. Don't expect the Rams to go pass heavy, and there is not that one receiver threat on their team. That's already two advantages. They should put Vontae Davis against Chris Givens, who plays on the outside, have Darius Butler against Tavon Austin in the slot and Cassius Vaughn against Austin Pettis on the outside. If the Colts can get these matchups, they'll be able to stop their receivers for most of the game. The Colts secondary, even without Toler, is better than the Rams' receiving core. The secondary will need to be wary of the deep passes, so having Bethea play over the strong side is not a bad idea. They should have Laron Landry play off too, but I'd rather see the hard hitting specialist play in the box and defend the run. If the Rams start passing more, a little Cover 2 or even Cover 4 doesn't hurt.

The defensive strategy should be to stop Zac Stacy and make sure the Rams go pass heavy. If they clog up the middle and make the Rams offense adjust, the Colts D is already winning. 

 

What the Rams have to do to WIn

For starters, the Rams will have to go in with a ground and pound gameplan that keeps the Colts offense off the field. They should watch the Chargers game and take notes.

Because they're on the road, they need to take time off the clock early and take the crowd out of it. Those Colts fans can be crazy with the momentum on their side. How do you take time off the clock? You build an effective ground and pound attack with a conservative passing game. You want to complete those passes and make the clock run. If the Rams can dominate the time of possesion clock, they'll be right in this game. The Colts only scored 9 points against San Diego. So, if they can effectively use the clock and get Stacy going on the ground, which means that Williams and Wells (and Smith with Dahl out) will need to work in sync (something that has been inconsistent this year). 

On defense, they'll need to do everything to get to luck. They'll have to utlize their two studs, Robert Quinn and Chris Long, and even use a lot of twists, which means bringing those two guys inside (start outside, scrap over, rush inside and go against the guard). If they can get pressure on Luck, they'll be able to slow down this offense. They should also bring down Ogletree and even Laurinaitis to get pressure. Constant blitzing has worked for the Dolphins and the Chargers in their games this year. They should also have a safety play over the top of TY Hilton's side, because if they can eliminate Hilton, it will make Luck's life very difficult as well.

 

Intriguing Matchups

The most intriguing matchup has to be the Rams' defensive line vs the Colts' offensive line, and more specifically the defensive ends vs the Colts offensive tackles, and even more specifically, Anthony Castonzo vs Robert Quinn. The winner of those battles won't decide who wins the game, but it will decide how the Colts do on offense. The Colts have struggled against good pass rushes this year.

 

Bold Prediction

Anthony Castonzo gets revenge on Robert Quinn (from the Boston College-North Carolina game) and shuts him down.

 

Prediction

Indianapolis Colts 24 vs St Louis Rams 16

[dudeski]

Not bad

[southwest1]

I like that you break down both teams approaches to winning this Sunday not just the Blue Horseshoe strategy to winning. Zac Stacy is a freaking stud if that line creates creases of daylight for him, it will be a bloody dogfight for us. 

 

You are a good NFL analyst Andy. If you had a TV show, I'd watch it & I might learn something valuable. If Skip Bayless is still on TV, the standards of stellar journalism cannot be that high to begin with right?