shasta519

Edit: I fudged the PPG because I forgot to count TEN: 7 Games with 35 sacks: 17 ppg 10 Game with 16 sacks: 29.6 ppg Still a massive disparity as one is a top 3 defense and one is a bottom 3 defense.

ESPN has the Colts #5 for pass rush win rate, although they only have DeFo (#5 for DT pass rush win rate) and Ebukam (#16 for EDGE pass rush win rate) even ranked in the top 20 for IDL or ERs. I suppose if we buy that stat, then we have to buy that the OL was bad bad in pass pro (#26 in pass block win rate). But I am sure PFF would you tell that the Colts OL is elite at pass blocking with how they grade them, so who knows with these advanced stats. Still, even if the Colts were #5 in PRWR, it could still be largely due to those 7 games, where they had an extremely high win rate that turned into sacks. I agree that the numbers are largely circumstantial. Not that the Colts are the only team that does this, but I think this year is a bit of an outlier in terms of the schedule and the overall QB play. Next year will likely be a very different story. If the Colts are giving up 30+ PPG to CLE (with a backup), NO, CIN (with a backup), ATL (with a backup)...then what happens when those teams become BUF, MIA, DET, GB, MIN.

Doubt he wants to be franchised at all. Think he's saying this so that Ballard backs up the truck for him or it could be a problem.

We know the Colts faced a very easy schedule on defense. I believe I saw it was the #28 SOS, based on season-long EPA of those offenses. But in reality, it's likely closer to #32 than #28 because of some favorable circumstances of certain games: Played HOU in Week 2 with most of their starting OL out. HOU's OL got healthier, Stroud got better and their offense took off, which improved their season-long EPA. Played BAL Week 3 in bad weather with key OL starters out. Clearly, that team got healthy and was far better as the season went on, with a much higher EPA. Played CLE with Phillip Walker instead of the Joe Flacco, who vastly improved their offense and EPA over the back half. Played PIT with Mitch Trubisky instead of Kenny Pickett/Mason Rudolph. PIT avg'd 13 ppg with Trubisky and were flat out terrible. IND put up 14 sacks in 3 of those games (HOU, BAL and PIT). They added another 21 sacks against CAR (bad OL and bad rookie QB), NE (bad OL and bad QB), TB (bad OL) and TEN (bad OL and bad QB). That accounts for 35 of their 51 sacks in only 7 games, all with either very favorable circumstances/bad opponents/bad OLs/bad QBs. They allowed 13 ppg in those 7 games too. In the other 10 games combined, they had 16 sacks. They also allowed 32.4 ppg in those 10 games (which would have been #32 in the NFL by ~2 ppg). Looking at that huge disparity (#1 defense in 7 games vs. #32 defense in 10 games), it's reasonable to suggest that they weren't really that effective as a pass rush unit overall (as the sack totals indicate) and they overachieved on sacks, mainly due to circumstances. And because they were given enough opportunity to do so, it skewed the entire season total. It's also fair to suggest that the other 10 games are likely more indicative of what to expect with their low pressure rate. Those 10 games are a larger sample size and probably a fairer indication of the play of the defense this year too. Maybe not the #32 defense, but certainly not a good one. And those games are more in line with what a normal SOS would look like for a team. So I have a hard time trusting these overly positive narratives around certain players and the defense overall.

It's very likely going to be an outlier. The inconsistency game to game sort of speaks to that. But they also faced a very soft schedule on defense, including a lot of bad QBs, and put up big sack totals in those games.

So the Colts are overachieving with sacks, based on how much they get pressure? That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it does seem unsustainable. Lots of bad QBs and bad OLs though: 6 sacks against HOU in Week 2 when 4/5 of their OL was hurt 4 sacks against BAL in Week 3 when 2/5 of their OL was hurt 4 sacks against CAR and Bryce Young and their awful OL 5 sacks against NE and Mac Jones (though a decent OL) 6 sacks against TEN and Wil Levis and their awful OL 4 sacks against PIT and Trubisky and their awful OL That's 29 sacks in just 6/15 games. Colts do have a tendency to put up big numbers in good situations.

His true catch rate is 83.8%. Sounds like a really high number, but that ranks #89 among WRs. https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/alec-pierce/

Both AJ and Holt have higher yds/game in their careers. And I would argue they had a higher peak. AJ sort of changed the position. And Holt has TWO seasons where he put up 100+ game. But Wayne will get in eventually. I think 2012 solidified that. Interesting to me that Boldin and Steve Smith weren't top 15 finalists. They will likely have to wait their turn as well. But both have pretty similar resumes to Wayne. So I think Wayne gets in and then they will.

So true. People are talking about it like he made some huge play when he basically just walked into the sack because the PHI DL forced the QB right into him. At least that's how I remember it when it happened. He also made a TFL unblocked too. Somehow this is getting blown up into him having a great game.

Oke had a really good season as a WILL last year in Bradley's scheme. He has played very well for the NYG as a MIKE, but he never really showed that level of play as a MIKE in Indy. So that would have been a tough call, and having Zaire already under contract made it tougher. Now if Shaq was gone or off the books as of last offseason...then I think Ballard absolutely re-signs Oke to play WILL.

Thanks for the kind words. I will certainly be active through ROS and in the offseason discussions. These past few months have been a bit hectic at work with projects.

Yep. The talent gap between PHI and IND at the skill positions is huge. But this is assuming they would run an AR-led offense like that going forward. Guess we don't know that yet. I can't imagine an offseason where they aren't adding a notable pass catcher. MHJ isn't happening, but I think a WR in R1 is almost a lock. Odunze would be my prediction. unless he finds himself in the top 10 post Combine.

I think Bradley is all but gone, unless they make the playoffs. Beyond the coaching staff, the defense has a lot of question marks this offseason. 1. Do they retain Kenny Moore? 2. Do they retain Blackmon? 3. Do they retain Grove? 4. Do they extend DeFo? 5. Do they continue to depend on Speed and Zaire at LB? Lots of questions before even getting to the CB position. A new coaching staff would only add to it. But my guess is the defense will look very different in two years.

Before the season, it was likely that this offense was going to run through MPJ and Downs. When Steichen was in PHI, there really wasn't a WR3, aside from occasional deep ball. AJB and Smith were often the top two reads in the RPO. Whether it was a rookie QB or Minshew, we should have expected this to continue. And MPJ and Downs are far better fits for that type of offense. Hopefully AP gets a chance next year. I have been critical enough of AP and not much has changed for me. He will be on the roster next year, but the Colts are going to add a WR to pair with MPJ.

Probably had already scheduled it on this date earlier or before the season. Definitely can't do it Week 18. Either that game matters (it likely will) and you don't want to distract...OR the season is over and less people will be there.

So it WAS WAS eh

But if Downs had his "franchise QB" throwing to him all year, he wouldn't have better stats because they wouldn't be throwing as much as they do with Minshew. AR's injury has been a huge boost to both MPJ and Downs from an opportunity/target standpoint.

That was WAS that hurt Manning's neck I believe.

If they re-sign Moore and Blackmon, then they are basically just running it back. Maybe throw in a draft pick or two. And then next season, once the Colts are no longer playing a bottom 3 schedule against terrible QBs like Phillip Walker, Bryce Young or Mac Jones...I have a feeling we are all going to wonder what happened to the secondary from last season? That said, I imagine it will depend on what (if anything) happens with Bradley.

Kenny Moore - Overall 73.4 - 60 total snaps (30 Rdef, 30 Cov) - No penalties. (Defense) -- Run defense - 61.8 -- Tackling - 80.5 - 3 Tackles, 2 Stops, No missed tackles. -- Passrush - 80.5 - No Sacks, Hits or Hurries. -- Coverage - 71.0 - Gave up 7/8 targets for 99 yards (14.1 Y/REC), Gave up 2 TDs, 1 Pass breakup. Now this makes me question PFF. Moore gets a 73.4 grade overall and a 71 coverage grade? He gave up a perfect passer rating and two TDs...no way that can be considered above average. And his run grade wasn't very high either. He didn't even blitz, so his pass rush grade is irrelevant. Yet, that pass rush grade and 3 tkls is enough to boost his overall grade to above average? I just find that strange.

But that's kind of a point on its own. I really like Downs, but I would also say Dell is a better WR/playmaker. He looks the part of a potential PBer, whereas Downs seems like a good slot WR. The Colts seem to get guys that are one tier below and that's even more reason for them not to stand pat at WR.

You might be in the minority, but I don't think you're wrong to have higher expectations for a R2 pick...especially with the hype before last season and then heading into this season. Prior to last season, people were actually talking about him unseating MPJ as the WR1 on this team. And then this year was going to be his big breakout.

In PHI, Steichen ran the offense through two WRs (AJB and Smith). He had a guy like Quez Watkins to stretch the field, but he was a small part of the offense. Even with AR, I think it's still going to be MPJ and Downs because they are those first/second read type WRs. But AR should give him a few more opportunities...I just think Pierce's role is still going to be diminished for the expectations coming into the NFL.

Well, stats can be objective, whereas fans aren't. I am not sure what there is to suggest that Pierce is any more than a depth WR. The biggest thing he has going for him is draft capital.

Agree. The LB room has become really overrated for some reason. Franklin is can ask, but he's not going to get it. If they are extending any d guys into their 30s, it has to be Grover or DeFo.