shasta519

Yep. Maybe Joel and Holder are just being contrarians because the more vocal sentiment is dissatisfaction among the fanbase. But I have long held that the local "media" in Indy is incredibly Ballard-friendly, to the point that they will often carry his water. Doyel and Bowen (sorta) can be critical, but that's really it. Dakich doesn't count lol But guys like Keefer (when he was still here), Holder, the Indy Star guys, Chappy, all of the podcasters, bloggers...they all tend to operate like some extension of Colts PR with how they hype up players/moves and how they spin narratives. The bias is blatant.

Yep. They revamped their entire DL around Anderson, who could be an AP ER. They have elite DL potential. Hunter and Autry had 28 sacks last year alone. They are trying to be contenders.

You’re not to supposed to ask questions. Or at least wait until the end of the presentation.

They do, but PHI had to let Hargrave walk last year. And now SF (who signed Hargrave) is letting Armstead walk. It’s tough to pay $40M to your interior DL, let alone when they are 30+. But we will see…DeFo should retire a Colt.

They have been in talks about Aiyuk. Let’s hope it just remains flirting

Holder is on Twitter talking about how great this team has drafted to be keeping guys they drafted 6-7 year ago. It’s always spin. HOU swapped out Greenard (coming off his first great season) for an AP ER in Hunter. Also brought in Autry as well. Upgraded at LB and added some DB help. Can’t take anyone seriously who say they haven’t improved. Grover would have gotten a good deal from someone. And Moore too. But that’s a lame reason to re-sign a player.

I still don’t believe that Ballard will pay both Grove and DeFo into their 30s. But hope I am wrong.

Depends on which Flacco you get. The CLE version was probably similar (though Minshew already knew the scheme), but Flacco was pretty bad with the NYJ the year before.

Love it. But Flacco should know that this is where aging vet QBs go to end their careers. So maybe he just knows it time. It also allows me to post the dancing Flacco raven, which is one of the best ESPN graphics of all time:

It's not just Gus' scheme. He was really bad in the same scheme in 2022, so teams likely factor that in. It's that he's a limited player, who can only play inside. I also don't think other teams (like Colts fans) forgot how bad he was in 2022, or near the end of 2021. It's on the tape. And even last season, many of his stats did not rank well: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/kenny-moore/ CBs stat-tracking and grading can be tough, given it's hard to definitively know coverage assignments, so always have to take with a grain of salt. But his stats do not match up with his PFF grade (who places huge emphasis on big plays). And on that note, he had two pick 6s in the same game. But outside of that game, and even with the second-lowest aDOT of any CB, his stats were much more like 2022 than "the best slot CB in the NFL." You can see from the link above, and PFR has his passer rating in those other 16 games as 113 (vs. 117 in 2022). The Colts also played a bottom 5 strength of schedule on defense and a slew of bad QBs last year (like a rookie Bryce Young). Down the stretch, we started to see late 2021 and 2022 Kenny. 4 TDs allowed in 3 games, a 140+ passer rating allowed. Plays like: Kyle Pitts TD where Kenny isn't even close Diontae Johnson TD where he's 4 steps too late Tanner Hudson TD where he just lets Hudson catch it and then gets dragged into the EZ Chase Brown TD where he's slow to come over, takes a bad angle, gets tossed out of the play and Brown takes it all the way for a TD Now he's going to be a year older, at a position where guys lose it fast. And he already can't cover downfield. I am sure people think I am a Kenny Moore hater...and that's perfectly fine. Because after watching this guy for the past 3 years (two of them in the current system), I feel like I am taking crazy pills with how he's perceived. The comeback narrative was so predictable too...the media was even writing about it BEFORE this past season. Even before the CAR game too. I don't care about the contract so much, it's the idea of committing to an aging CB (for more money) who can only play inside (with questionable coverage). It's a position they should be able to fill with a draft pick or should have somebody ready to take over. Assuming the Colts SoS gets tougher (as it should), by mid season, I predict people will be saying "what happened to last year's Kenny Moore?" with the more negative people claiming that "Moore is washed." Which is actually what people were saying BEFORE last season's "comeback" when he was discussed as a potential cut candidate.

Like an in-the-box S who exclusively plays near the LOS and doesn't have to cover much past that? Sure, that's largely his role now. Which is why I wanted to see them try to fill that role via the draft. But as a FS? I think that seems very counterintuitive. For starters, you would lose what he brings in run defense, which IMO, is by far his most valuable trait at this point (in addition to leadership). Secondly, he would likely be a massive liability having to cover downfield. He's never done that and he's also not very big. In Gus' system, his aDOT last year was the second-lowest of all CBs (around 4 yds), likely by design. He struggled defending 8 yds downfield...so if the aDOT was twice that (like it can be for FSs), I think teams would target him.

Right. Not liking AR doesn't necessarily mean he's trolling. It's a slippery slope to consider an unpopular opinion as trolling, as long they aren't spamming discussion threads with comments or the home page with a bunch of posts they created. If it's just a few posts/comments here and there, it's easy to just ignore and move on (which is always the best thing to do when it looks like trolling anyways). I also think some people use this forum (and others) like a soap box, not because they want to engage in discourse.

OP is just now realizing all of this? A little late to the party. The AR hype train and narratives began even before he was drafted. Once he became a Colts...fuhgetaboutit. On Twitter, a the day after the SB, a chunk of Colts podcasters/fan accounts were all posting that AR would be the one to dethrone Mahomes. Some of that is trolling other teams and their QBs, but there is a huge contingent of this fanbase that sort of behaves like a cult. The truth is all we have is a very small sample size, so we can't really draw any conclusions yet. If somebody wants to be optimistic, that's fine with me. But the hyperbole and suplerlatives are a bit annoying at times.

It’s also PFF. Two of those weeks where he graded top 5, I don’t think he caught a pass (JAC and CLE). He’s also a STer, so I wonder if these were overall grades, or just his grade as a TE. Or if that gets separated (don’t have PFF sub). Noticed too that his PFF grades regressed as his ST snaps decreased. Could just be a coincidence though.

Yeah. I doubt he’s already signed. Should have a nice market, even with all the Ss out there.

This is interesting. I think part of this is rule changes. But also, Ss typically play at a high level longer than other positions, so you have guys getting paid from several different draft classes at the same time. Whatever the reason, Ballard should be signing at least two of these guys. Blackmon might only get a one-year deal with that many other Ss out there.

DT would make a lot of people angry, but it actually makes sense because of how the roster is constructed. Both Grove and DeFo are or will be 30 soon, so they have to get younger there somehow.

They often do. All offseason, Hicks has been trying to convince everyone the reason the DL couldn't pressure often was because QBs just threw the ball so fast the DL couldn't get there. Only thing the Gilly and Sneed moves have in common is the position, but the Sneed move is much more like the DeFo move, in that will require draft capital AND a massive extension. I think $15-18M is probably even on the low side. Every year, we get to FA and we are like "woah...these contracts are crazy." Just wait. The cap raised 14% from where people thought it was. It's going to be insane.

Wilkins would be a dream signing. He's two years younger and better than Grove. The problem is how do you sign him AND extend DeFo? That would be a lot of money tied up in interior DL. I suppose if they went ER at #15 (Verse or Turner), that would offset it a bit. Then they can decide between Paye and Dayo for an extension after next season.

Signals? You mean like not signing an extension to this point and talking about exploring options? We can just ignore these signals as meaningless but see other signals as him being clear about wanting to stay here? That seems selective. The difference from JT is that JT plays a less valuable position with a far shorter shelf life, which is why he pushed the issue. MPJ has far more options and he seems to exploring them. The stipulation about two R1 picks is largely irrelevant. It hasn’t happened since 2000. It’s not going to happen. Players have been tagged and traded for less many times. MPJ coming back is the most likely outcome, but until he signs, it’s still worth speculation. If it doesn’t interest you, why are you responding?

We went through the entire JT trade/extension drama only months ago, so it’s natural to entertain different outcomes for a player from the same class who will likely be asking for nearly 2x the money. Besides, what else is there to discuss? FA hasn’t started and the draft is still several weeks away.

Agree. It's not like MPJ would just walk...he would net at least a R2 pick plus something else. And I think you could give lots of WRs 156 targets and get similar production. That's just a huge volume. But I don't think the Colts want to trade him at all. Colts have intentionally locked up players early. They even did so with JT. It's just part of their philosophy. I would assume the Colts wanted to do the same with MPJ and avoid using the tag in the first place. But if the Colts want him back (they seem to be clear on this), and his market is largely set (it's not really a money issue), why hasn't he signed? People say it's a lock he wants to be here because he has said so, but he also has said he wants to explore his options. He's an ultra-competitive WR who has played with uncertainty at QB for 4 years and a self-admitted "sore loser" on a team that has not won anything in the past 3 years. And while he at least knows who his QB is, he's still an unproven QB. Whether it's winning or trajectory to a SB, QB certainty, personal accolades, production potential...I don't blame him for wanting to explore his options and I wouldn't blame him for finding greener grass. I am not concerned about any outcome TBH...I just think it's interesting that people are so sure he's a lock to be back. And I wonder what the reaction would be if he wasn't.

That's certainly the idea. But I think it's highly unlikely he's getting 10 tgts/game with AR, let alone combining that with extra deep targets. Something will have to give. It's just math. Colts threw the ball 574x last year with JT missing 7 games, Minshew playing 85% of the snaps and giving MPJ an incredible 30% target share. That's how you get to 156 targets in 16 games. If Steichen's PHI's offense is any indicator, we should expect PAs to decrease to 510-520 with AR. You add in in that they committed $14M AAV to JT, and there could be even more of a focus on the run game. I can't imagine they paid JT to not give him 300+ carries. Assuming MPJ falls back into a target share range closer to the 25% he was in the previous two years, we are talking about 125-30 targets over 17 games at best. So hopefully his aDOT does jump back up to 2021 levels because the 2022-23 version of MPJ doesn't hit 1k yards with that usage. I just think the AR impact to his role and prominence in the offense could actually be the opposite of what hope. Doesn't mean it won't be a net gain to the offense though, especially if Downs takes a step or they add another weapon. But the idea that AR will lift MPJ to an all-around WR, help AP take the leap to a legit WR2 AND turns Downs in a potential 1k WR...is just not feasible. And until he signs his new deal, I wonder if MPJ has considered it as well.

He has maintained since the season ended that he wanted to see what was out there. And the tag will allow him to do that. There are also other prominent WRs who could be upping the ante soon as well, so I am sure his agent has advised him of that as well. But he did say that he wouldn't "sacrifice his career potential for comfortability." That could mean money or it could mean something else. I don't think there is anything to freak out about, but tagged players do get traded. It's happened several times in recent years, though it's typically been ERs. I thought about the length of the deal as well. He could be eyeing something shorter that allows him to hit FA again in a couple years. And two for $48M on the tag wouldn't be much different.

MPJ hasn't really been used as a deep threat WR since the middle of the 2021 season with Wentz. Basically, since Antoine Winfield took his lunch money on a deep pass that turned into an INT. Felt like they stopped throwing him deep after that or some time around then. And this has now spanned 2.5 seasons with two coaching staffs. After 2021, they used their first pick (R2) to draft Alec Pierce, whose only known skillset was as a deep threat/contested catch player. Now it's 2024 and Ballard/Steichen are still talking about ADDING explosive plays to the offense. Even in their short amount of time, I don't recall AR taking any shots to MPJ...only Downs, AP or a TE. Though it was a very small sample size. I just don't know if I see his role changing much. He's valuable in his current role. If anything, I actually have a different view on what AR might do to MPJ as a WR. And for all I know, MPJ and his agent might be thinking the same thing.