shasta519

That's the thing. He certainly had flashes, but we knew he would do that. What we also saw was inconsistency from drive to drive, quarter to quarter, half to half. Week 1: Played in the 1H against JAC and then his passing cratered in the 2H Week 2: Two TD drives to start and then two 3-and-outs...leaves game Week 4: Bad 1H and great 2H in a comeback effort Week 5: Good start...but then the injury In the games he was knocked out, he was playing well. So that's what people remember. In the LAR game, he played well in the 2H, so that's what people remember. We never really got to see him adjust or see other teams adjust. And it's not like the Colts offense was lighting it up with him on the field. So while there are things to be excited about, some of the advanced stats paint a different picture. And I just don't see how a small sample size of games has convinced 99% of the fanbase that is indeed the future. Not to mention that he still has to recover and get back to 100% from a shoulder surgery. If the Colts' season tanks and they find themselves in position, they have to consider a QB. But that likely won't happen. What could happen though, is that they draft a project QB on Day 2...somebody with a similar playing style. That will provide insurance and continuity to the offense. Plus, then they won't have to pay Minshew a bunch of money (which he should absolutely be asking for since he's playing 85% of the season).

Maybe they were further down the Rhodes with him than JT.

Some of these players played more on the year... Vick Ballard Boom Herron Ahmad Bradshaw (if you add up the games he played for IND, it's probably close to a season) Erik Walden (and his 10 sack season) Donnie Avery (still the most productive WR not named TY, Reggie or MPJ I think) Julian Blackmon (strong start to rookie campaign, but not since) Rodney Thomas (this is a guess) Eric Ebron (monster year with Luck, then just stunk the following year) Chris Reed (great filling in for Q, but then left to MIN)

So is he going to play? When I hear wording like "available to play" it doesn't exactly make it sound it like he's a full go. I wonder if the plan will be to use him in certain packages for a while and then ramp it up from there.

Agree. I understand why JT is doing what he is doing. It's because of the bolded above. He knows what the Colts know...and it's that his role will likely be diminished, which will likely diminish his production and impact his contract value. He won't be able to produce to the level he has shown in the past to secure the contract he wants, especially paired with his injury-plagued 2022 season. I roll my eyes because the Colts already know this, which is partly why they aren't going to pay him as a top 5 or maybe even top 10 RB. The "wait and see how he does" approach is really just to identify how low his value will be, not an opportunity for him to ball out and get the big contract he wants. I still think a trade is the best move going forward for JT. And it does seem like JT is trying to engineer that move. But I also think it's the best course for the Colts as well. Next year's draft class is pretty deep with Day 2 RBs. If they can get back a couple Day 2 picks, they can find a viable replacement that will better fit the reduced role in Steichen's scheme.

I remember that game. It was a blowout. Really wish they had won the week before against HOU.

I mean...technically, JAC blew the game they lost against IND cause they gave up a late TD on 3rd and 10. But NFL games often tend to be close. I just think, for at least this upcoming season, we can't count on the AFCS for a few wins like we could in the past.

If the Colts had made an offer, I think it would have been reported. But who knows.

Hines contract ran through 2022-24. So Hines would have to have been cut before JT's new contract kicked in. I don't see Ballard doing that. And that's sort of a technicality because Ballard would likely put money into JT's 4th season. So really there would have been a two-year overlap from 2023 and 2024. I am not sure what you mean by the narrative about Hines' contract. Many questioned the contract when it was signed. So if Hines was still here, I don't see how it wouldn't be relevant (to at least some) that another RB on the team would be getting paid more to provide a fraction of the production. But I do agree that the Colts aren't obligated to pay him, especially $16M AAV. I actually think trading him is the right course of action because I don't think they want to pay him. But this thread was partly about who is to blame for the situation. The Colts are the ones who have switched course and drawn this line in the sand. They are responding to the RB market, but they are also responding to last season's collapse, which they created. None of the current conditions are on JT, unless he's hiding an injury. He's just reacting to their changes and adjusting his strategy to get paid, like other players are. Also, the Colts won't offer a new commitment right now to JT or anybody else, yet will continue to honor their commitments to several underperforming players (Moore, Kelly, MAC)? Maybe JT's situation is just collateral damage from Ballard handing out bad contracts. But that's not on JT either. The moping around practice is on him. But the idea that he should just "suit up and honor his contract" because the team switched course is a bit of a double standard. If anything, I blame the current RB market and the CBA. But between the team and JT, I don't think it's nearly as one-sided as the poll would suggest. The injury situation makes this much murkier for me as well. We clearly aren't getting all of the facts. I think both sides are putting out information to make the other look worse. I guess it's part of the business though. As for MPJ... while he is also eligible for an extension, JT has a much better track record. IF MPJ had that track record or close to it, I think the conversation/situation would be very different, like it was when Deebo, AJB, Diontae Johnson, DK and McLaurin were entering the final years of their rookie deals. But that's JMO.

Oh it's definitely relevant in JT's mind. That was his teammate in the RB room. I just meant it's not as relevant because it was two years ago and it wasn't a contract on the level that JT is asking for. I remember having this conversation as well. At the time, I thought that deal would all but ensure they would have to pay JT big money and pay him early.

And I am good with that. If they don't want to give him the contract, that's fine. I get the arguments for that. It's the "just wait out this season and we will pay you then" that makes me roll my eyes. I just hope they are able to trade him and get back legit draft capital.

And the rookie contract stipulates that, after 3 years, the player can seek an extension. So they are also honoring the conditions. It's weird that you think it's fine for a team to cut players (and their salaries), but it's bad form for a player to want to be given an extension when he's eligible. And paying other teammates early might mean nothing to you, but it means something to JT.

The Hines deal isn't really relevant. Different times and different players and different commitment. But Hines is still an example of how this team has approached keeping players. But mostly, if Hines were still in IND, I think far more people would be on JT's side in this...because it would be unfair for JT to not only have to play out his rookie deal (Hines didn't), but also make less than the guy behind him on the depth chart when he is eligible for an extension. I think that would be a big talking point. I am not sure if we have gotten any real facts so far. But this is far from done I would expect it to lever up as we get to mid Oct.

We will just have to agree to disagree about him honoring his contract. Teams don't honor contracts. They cut players all the time. This is an understood part of the CBA. Players are eligible to get extensions after year 3 (or year 2 for UDFAs). Him asking for a new deal is not any different than when other good players do it. And considering that many of JT's teammates didn't have to suck it up and honor their deals, I can see where he is coming from.

But several of his teammates were still on their respective rookie contracts when they got big extensions. JT is not getting that treatment for reasons out of his control (unless he is actually hiding an injury). You can't compare his situation to MPJ. The franchise tag for MPJ will pay him 2x what it will pay JT. And WRs have much longer careers than RBs. And the market has exploded in recent years. MPJ knows he will get paid by somebody, even if it's not the Colts. And more importantly, MPJ wasn't an All Pro like JT. He hasn't been a top 5 player at his position like JT. He doesn't have the track record to be chirping about a new contract. I just think it's an unfair comparison. And I actually wouldn't be surprised to see MPJ get an in-season extension at some point.

But he's a RB. He won't have the same earning potential as other positions and could be out of the league by his late 20s even. He's likely only getting one shot at a huge contract. And he's going to be worth more at age 24 than he is age 25 or even age 26 (if he gets tagged). Plus, injuries are a major risk to that earning potential as well. Look at what happened to his own teammate, Marlon Mack. Tore his Achilles in Week 1 of the last year of his rookie deal. The Colts threw him a bone last year, but Mack will makee a fraction of what he would have made if he got an extension early OR got to hit FA. And Mack isn't on JT's level. The difference in earning potential for JT in that scenario would be tens of millions.

1. The Colts haven't even made him an offer though. 2. I think he gets traded by the TDL if he's healthy. There will be injuries around the NFL, which will provide them with some leverage. And obviously, there shouldn't be questions around his health like there were a week or two ago. If the Colts come out slow, they are likely fading in the AFCS race, which makes JT a bit of a luxury. 3. Agree. But like you said, this is nothing new. 4. I was hoping they would have traded him, but that seemed more like a dog and pony show all along. 5. My stance on the FO and mgt. hasn't changed either. They are allowed to change their approach. And they did allow him to "test the market." But maybe at least acknowledge that this is a shift though. That's where the media comes in. Maybe I missed it, but did anybody ask them about this? I don't think the "situation just sucks" is a valid explanation from the GM. But that's more on the media than the GM. 6. My stance on JT hasn't really changed either. From all accounts, he is very intelligent. Unless he is hiding an injury, I think he's playing the only hand he can if he truly wants out to get out of IND and/or get paid. If we step back a bit, he's not the first player to request a trade out of IND in the last calendar year either. Those were different situations, obviously, but JT is allowed to look after #1 too.

I didn't break it, but I am certainly one of the few who voted the other way. Here's my take on it. I don't think either side is blameless. And there is also the RB market overall that is part of the issue. But the Colts FO set a precedent on paying guys early. Ballard has long preached about paying your own and he has practiced what he preached...several times. He even did so at the same position as JT. And he's been praised for this philosophy. And now, when it's JT's turn, they say "well let's wait and see." They want him to prove his worth (again), except this time in a new system with a first time HC and mobile QB who isn't going to check down to him, will likely take 8-10 carries of his...AND will vulture goal line TDs. In his mind, it will be very difficult to put up close to his AP year and get the contract that he seeks. Now maybe JT overvalues himself, given the overall RB market. But he is one of the best RBs in the NFL. Miles Sanders played in this system on an elite offense with an elite QB, made a PB and still only got $6M AAV. JT won't be playing in an elite offense or with an elite QB. So I don't blame JT for feeling a sense of urgency or wanting to get out. He doesn't want to burn another year of his career on a rebuilding team in the hopes that he MIGHT get paid. And with how the FO has shifted their mindset into doing things they haven't done before, I wouldn't trust them to not use the franchise tag either...even though they haven't since Ballard got here. Meanwhile, Jim Irsay is on Twitter saying silly stuff about how nobody would care if JT was out of the league. JT did hire a questionable agent. And he has continued to employ him. But that same agent got his teammate, Shaq Leonard, nearly $100M out of contract negotiations with the same GM. And he apparently was able to get valid contract offers from teams when he was seeking a trade. So was it really that questionable of a choice? JT moping around practice is on him though. But he's been dealt a bad hand.

Here's why I think there is some validity to this. The offense should be better. It has to be. However, the defense is what kept last year's team in games. And I think the defense has a chance to be far worse than we are accustomed to seeing. The secondary is full of young and/or unproven players. Even with Gilmore, Rodgers and McLeod playing really good ball last year, the Colts were bottom 3 in passer rating and comp % against. They were #18 in pass defense EPA. And the LB room lost Oke, who filled in at WILL for Shaq. Oke is now gone and there are big question marks about Shaq coming back, let alone being the same player he was before. That leaves the starting LB duo as Franklin and Speed without much depth. From a pass coverage standpoint, that is not ideal. The potential is there for the pass defense to be swiss cheese against the pass. And if that happens, the Colts will find themselves with far less margin for error and playing catchup far more often. That's just not an ideal situation for a raw rookie QB who is still developing as a passer. I can see a scenario similar to CHI last year.

The Colts went 1-4-1 against the lowly AFC South last year. JAC is clearly on the way up and are the favorites. Colts haven't beat TEN in the past 5 games. They fired their awful OC and added DHop, which can only help their offense. The defense is still stout. HOU hired a new coaching staff, including the passing game coordinator from SF. They drafted the QB2 prospect and hvae added a lot of talent in the draft the past two years, in addition to adding several vets in FA. Meanwhile, the Colts did draft a QB as well. And they hired a new HC to install a new scheme. But the defense lost key players and they are relying on a very unproven secondary. They will be without JT for at least 4 weeks (2 of which are AFCS games). If JT is out for 6 weeks, he will miss 4/6 AFCS games. Not really sure I see 3 wins, unless AR is far better than I think. Even then, the defense could be far worse than we have seen before.

Ballard will get so much credit if AR pans out. If he doesn't, Ballard will be accountable, but Brown will be the scapegoat. Dodds has wisely made it known that he had reservations about AR during the scouting process. The fence-sitting will likely serve him well.

The worst part is that this was a reaggravation of a hamstring injury he suffered back in spring. Hamstring injuries are really tricky. And Woods is a huge person. Hopefully they give him plenty of time to heal up.

Looks like the WR room is shaping up: MPJ Pierce Downs McKenzie Rodgers Strachan

Probably won't be able to get Williams unless they have #1 pick. But Maye could be a possibility. If they land a top 3 pick, Ballard will just trade it back and then grab a DL/OL player.

A fully torn hamstring is a grade 3 strain. A partially torn is a Grade 2 strain. And a grade 1 strain is really just a pulled hammy. I am guessing it's at least grade 2 strain if they are using the word "torn." Not good for a bigger guy who is also a pass catcher.