shasta519

I forgot about those Irsay comments. Looks like they were all the way back in 2017. Seems pretty clear that there had been some discussion of it at some point, or at least of his mental state. Luck even chronicled his journey in that one interview, so it all sort of tracks. For me, I actually thought there was a decent chance might be done once he missed all of 2017. I had sort of accepted that reality (and maybe other fans had as well). But then he comes back and starts playing an AP QB in 2018. It a roller coaster of two years for a fan. Can only imagine what it was like inside the org.

I don't buy it either. And I sort of feel like TY is taking an unnecessary shot at the fanbase. There weren't even many fans there and they certainly didn't represent the Colts fanbase at large. The situation was unprecedented and I think the booing has been way overblown. People were clearly booing the idea that Luck would no longer be their QB, not the man himself. If you look at it from that perspective, that shows how much the fans loved him. I mean...I still remember exactly where I was when that news broke. I was stunned and devastated. It was one of those types of moments. It was like a long-term relationship ending. So I can see why there was a visceral reaction.

I don't think Luck strung along the org. in 2017. That was Irsay. They took a similar approach with Peyton as well when he was hurt.

It does make sense that evening was when Luck told some or most of his teammates in the locker room. And it would make sense one of them or someone else in that locker room leaked it to Schefter, who confirmed and then tweeted it out. But as far as the org. leaders, I will always have a hard time believing they didn't know well before that. Or at least know he was strongly considering it. Not saying they knew in April or whatever, but weeks before seems possible. And we know that they can keep things close to the vest.

It was just a rumor I saw. No idea if it was remotely true and can't find it. I only remembered it because it seemed like a weird thing to make up out of thin air and it sort of tracks with the mental dilemma that Luck was facing at that time. Don't know about him going back to Europe, but him asking the org. for more time doesn't seem too far-fetched given the gravity of the decision he was making.

Agree. Will people keep that same energy if AR gets hurt more? All I see is people saying that AR needs to protect himself better, which is exactly what was said about Luck for years. But Luck was a physical QB. And for 3 years, he was basically Superman. And then he took a bad shot to the right shoulder early in year 4 and that was that. Happens all the time in the NFL. And his other injuries were either a result of his physicality or snowboarding. At least Luck got to year 4…AR made it to game 4 so far. I don’t think Luck would have come back if not for those boos. That sounds like a silly thing for TY to say. Maybe he meant make more appearances around the org.

There were rumors that he did ask to take time off and convalesce in Europe. But they said no.

It's interesting. One could argue that being surrounded by premium weapons has allowed him to thrive. But one might also argue that the weapons around him has limited his opportunity to show that he is an alpha WR1. But he doesn't elite speed. I think he's been pretty dynamic with the ball, but everybody in SF seems to be able to do that. His 17.9 ypc, might be an outlier, but if he settles somewhere in-between that and the previous two seasons, I think he could be a guy that puts up 1,400 yds with more target volume. And what he does do is run great routes and catch the ball. Plus, he's got those long arms that make him more like a 6'2'' or 6'3'' WR than a 6'0'' guy. But am biased cause I have wanted him since he was at ASU. Was hoping he would be there when the Colts picked MPJ. So pairing them up, while costly, would be fun.

Yep. Getting premium talent heading into their 2nd deals is one way you can flex your might with cap space. But getting aging premium talent on big contracts is another for cheap is another way. But that Adams contract is wild. I think the base salary jumps up to $35M in 2025 and 2026. Would have to restructure big-time.

Yep. Aiyuk is exactly who you target for this kind of move. Deebo is still on the books for two more years. Kittle as well. CMC isn't going anywhere. Ballard dealt with Lynch before in the DeFo trade, so they have some rapport. Similar circumstances in a way. Close to the same pick as well (#13 vs. #15).

I do get your point. But we can only evaluate based on what HAS happened. You can take out 2017 if you like, but let's not act like Ballard's 2018 draft class (the foundation of his reputation) wasn't a direct result of it. We don't need to get into specific aspects of the GM role. Everybody will agree that Ballard clears Grigson on many in that regard. That's not my point. My point is that we can't ding Grigson's success for having Luck and excuse Ballard's lack of success for not having Luck. It has been said that Luck carried an entire org. for multiple years. If he can do that, what would make Ballard's success more legitimate (assuming it was a similar run). If anything, the same grading curve you are applying to Ballard not having Luck would have to be applied to him in the opposite way if he did have Luck. But with how quick people are to credit 2018 to Ballard, that would never happen. Again, it's just a double standard.

Well he can just being a scapegoat in this scenario I guess. Now that I think of it, he strikes me as more of a mid-season fire if they aren't playing well. I really don't know why they kept him. Maybe he is good friends with Steichen. But I think he's ultimately going to take the fall for an aging defense that is going to need to be rebuilt very soon. If you think about it, this defense has largely been the same since 2020. And it's only that recent because that was when DeFo was acquired. But the majority of impact players like DeFo (2020), Grove (2017), Franklin (2017), Speed (2019), Lewis (2018) and Moore (2018) are all from several years ago. The only newcomers are a couple of ERs who have yet to become foundational players and some DBs who are unknowns. I don't think we can consider this continuity to be a good thing, especially since this team has had a low ceiling for years. And it would seem to be a byproduct of philosophy (we like our guys) and some not so great drafting.

Why is Luck responsible for the success under Grigson, but not the (unfortunately short) success with Ballard? Both GMs had to rebuild rosters. And in the small sample we have to compare, they had the same success with Luck. In his 2nd year as GM, Grigson went 11-5 and 1-1 in the playoffs with Luck at QB. In his 2nd year as GM, Ballard went 10-6 and 1-1 in the playoffs with Luck as his QB. If Luck had stayed for Ballard's 3rd year, nothing short of a trip to the SB would have been more successful than Grigson's 3rd year with Luck as QB because that team went to the AFCCG. We don't know what would have happened after that. The landscape of the AFC changed dramatically since Luck retired. So what could have happened is mostly just conjecture. I don't mean to get into some debate over these two guys again. If it were up to me, neither would be the Colts GM. But this has always been such a double standard that exists throughout most of this fanbase.

Part of me thinks they are giving Bradley a chance to fix the defense, but the other part of me thinks Bradley will make for a nice scapegoat if next year doesn't go great.

But assigning importance in the form of a "winning season" to two 9-8 seasons is also not very objective. The Colts are picking in the top half of the draft this year, which is not typically what a team with a winning season ends up doing. But an average person would assume a winning season was a success. Ballard has gone from the pedestal to polarizing. At this point, I imagine you are going to have people who will defend him well beyond his tenure and people who won't change their tune even if the Colts win a SB.

That's some of the worst tackling you will ever see though. They almost sort of push him toward the EZ too. In college, AR was able to run over or run away from most players. That's not the case in the NFL. And he even said he didn't realize he wasn't ready for that leap. Got him hurt twice too. This season is going to be very telling. I expect to hear about how he's in the best shape of his life and that's he added back muscle, etc.

Yep. It lines up with the theory that their sack production was a bit of an outlier. Or at the very least, not indicative of a top level pass rush. And if you look at the individual parts, you can see why. Ebukam was solid, but not exactly a game-wrecker. He will also be 29 next year, so I am not sure you can just pencil him in for 9.5 sacks again. Paye and Dayo are decent players, but not high level ERs. DeFo is great, but he's going to be 30. They need a big-time addition at ER. And this offseason is actually the time to do it because Dayo will be a FA after next season, Paye could be (if they don't pick up his option) and Ebukam/DeFo will both be 30+.

He’s a role player who has gotten hurt a lot.

Manning winning 7-8 MVPs would sort of prove my point. Mahomes has won 2/6 MVPs in the league so far (2018, 2022). The seasons that he didn't we saw insane seasons from Lamar (2019) and Rodgers (2020-21)...and then this year. In 2019 and 2020, Mahomes put up a better season than any but Manning's 2004 MVP season. The closest he got to an MVP in those years was 3rd. And Mahomes' 2021 season was about on par with Manning's 2009 MVP season. I just don't think we can use MVPs to decide the order of QB greats. But let's see where Mahomes finishes first.

I don't know. MVP just seems much harder to win now than before. Maybe not this past year, but Mahomes had two seasons where he didn't win MVP that would have possibly been unanimous back in the 2000s.

But I bet he retires far earlier than Brady. The ring argument will make Brady the greatest, but not the best QB. The AFC seems more competitive now than it was during the first NE run and certainly the most recent NE run (2014-2018). When NE went to 4 SBS and won 3 from 2014-2018, here are some of the AFC teams they beat: BAL and Flacco IND and Luck (coached by Pagano) HOU and Osweiler PIT and Big Ben TEN and Mariota JAC and Bortles The AFCS was basically a layup back then for NE. Not to diminish what NE has accomplished, I just think that going forward, the competition in the AFC will make it very difficult for Mahomes to approach the number of SB appearances or rings that Brady has. Every year, he's likely going to be battling 2-3 of Lamar, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Stroud, Tua, Lawrence, etc. every playoff to get back. You also have guys like AR, Levis, as well as some talented rookies who will emerge. Just this year, he beat Tua, Allen and Lamar, which IMO is as impressive than any run that NE made in the AFC.

Here is where Mahomes ranks all-time: Second-best win % in the regular season Best win % in the playoffs (at least 10 games) Second-best passer rating in the regular season (by .1) Best passer rating in the playoffs The dude is Rodgers in the regular seasons level WITH Tom Brady's playoff success (and better stats). He will surpass Manning sooner than later.

Nobody would want to do that I agree. But I was just looking at it from an odds standpoint. Most likely it's going to be 1-2 games with how the NFL is with concussions and the extra game.

But according to the Colts owner, the Rams were a cautionary tale and were paying for it for mortgaging their future to win a SB. Yet they were still a playoff team last year.

So assuming you had odds attached to this…I would guess 0 and 9+ games would be the good values…like +1500 and +2000, respectively (making those up). And at the NFL level, we have only seen him fit one of these answers. But hopefully that’s not the case. It’s the NFL…it takes one hit or one bad step.