2021 Colts at Bills: Matchup, stats, PFF grades, poll

[EastStreet]

Tough game..... can we finally get a win vs a team with a winning record?

Bills a 76.4% probable winner and a 7pt favorite.

 

Weather outlook - high 40s, showers

 

Highlights / TLDR

• Bills Passing O
  • Great group of WRs, and #6 in PYPG
• Bills Rushing O
  • They don't run a ton, but are effective
• Bills Passing D
  • Top 10, top 2 safety group, and top 5 DB groups IMO
• Bills Rushing D
  • Great stat wise, but teams don't run it a ton against them (get down early, and forced to pass)
• Overall - Bills are nears tops in the league in most categories. Very few areas do we grade out better stat wise. Tall order. 
• Keys to Game
  • Colts D - need to take advantage of their RT situation. Who knows who will end up starting at RT (see PFF grade area). Regardless, not confident in our zone and if we don't get pressure on Allen, could be very ugly. If we can get to Allen early and often, could change the complexion of the game. If every there was a time to move guys around on the DL (stunt), this is the time. Buckner over RT occasionally? Paye moved around like he was in college?
  • Colts O - Two things. OL performance and balance. Need to be effective running. Need to be effective early. Need to protect Wentz from the team with the highest pressure rate in the NFL... Tossing deep could be disastrous given their Ss and overall DBs. Overall, heavy run and heavy short pass. I'll take a win anyway it comes, I just don't like the thought of having to toss it all over the yard against one of the best secondaries in the league. And if we can't protect Wentz, expect TOs and 3 and outs. Colts OL will get a huge test, and are key to both aspects on O. Is Fisher for real, or just a product of improving grades vs bad teams?
• Note - This is an AFC, and is far more important playoff wise than any wins vs NFC teams left (TB, AZ). We likely have to go 5-2 the rest of the way, and need to start here. Tall order, and our D needs to step up big time. 

 

Offense

Bills / Indy

• PPG - #2 / #8
• RZ% - #14 / #28
• 3D% - #2 / #16
• YPG - #5 / #12
• TOP - #5 / #10
• RYPG - #10 / #6
• RYPA - #8 / #3
• PYPG - #6 / #22
• PYPA - #12 / #20
• Rush Play % - #19 / #12
• QB Sack % - #4 / #10
• Pass Rating - #8 / #15

Defense 
Bills / Indy

• PPG - #1 / #13
• RZ% - #5 / #14
• 3D% - #1 / #17
• YPG - #1 / #20
• TOP - #5 / #10
• RYPG - #3 / #17
• RYPA - #3 / #16
• PYPG - #2 / #20
• PYPA - #1 / #23
• Rush Play % (least) - #5 / #19
• Pressure % - #1 / #28
• QB Sack % - #21 / #15
• Pass Rating - #1 / #24
   

 

 

Bill PFF Grades

Offense

• QB Josh Allen 97% / 84.9
• RB Zack Moss 44% / 70.3
  • Devin Singletary 50% / 59.3
• WR1 Stefon Diggs 80% / 83.3
  • Gabriel Davis 38% / 69.9
• WR2 Emmanuel Sanders 82% / 70.0
  • Isaiah McKenzie 16% / 52.0
• WR3 Cole Beasley 63% / 68.6
• TE Dawson Knox 61% / 67.4
  • Tommy Sweeney 32% / 49.2
• FB Reggie Gilliam 15% / 71.6
• LT Dion Dawkins 97% / 69.4
  • Bobby Hart 0% (101 snaps for TN in 2021) / 30.4 (2 sacks) RT starter?
• IR - LG Jon Feliciano 68% / 59.1
  • Ike Boettger 46% / 57.7 (1 sack) - now starting LG
• C Mitch Morse 96% / 63.9 (2 sacks)
• RG Daryl Williams 97% / 67.4 (3 sacks)
  • Cody Ford 47% / 49.0 (2 sacks)
• OUT - RT Spencer Brown  - 45% / 65.4
  • Daryl Williams 97% / 67.4 (3 sacks) - currently starting RG
  • Tommy Doyle 2% / 52.8 (1 sack)
  • NOTE: Not sure how they will reshuffle? Hart (just signed), Doyle (hasn't played), move RG Williams?

 

4-3 Defense

• LDE Greg Rousseau 50% / 68.3 (3 sacks)
  • AJ Epenesa 36% / 69.6 (1 sack)
  • Efe Obada- 18% / 43.5 (1 sack)
• LDT Ed Oliver 58% / 70.1 (0 sacks)
  • Vernon Butler 30% / 44.6
• OUT RDT Star Lotulelei O 41% / 53.1 (2 sacks)
  • IR Justin Zimmer  28% / 63.6 (1 sack)
  • Harrison Phillips 27% / 74.1 (0 sack)
• RDE Jerry Hughes 55% / 81.1 (2 sacks)
  • Mario Addison 44% / 59.4 (3 sacks)
  • Boogie Basham 13% / 58.9 (2 sacks)
• WLB Matt Milano 76% / 70.0
  • Andre Smith 0% / NA
• QUEST MLB Tremaine Edmunds Q 79% / 50.6
  • Tyrel Dodson 6% / 53.9
• SLB A.J. Klein 31% / 50.4
  • Tyler Matakevich 4% / 82.1
• LCB Tre'Davious White 94% / 69.2 (1 INT)
• NB Taron Johnson 78% / 76.7 (1 INT)
• SS Jordan Poyer 87% / 84.4 (4 INTs) #3 graded safety in the NFL
  • Damar Hamlin 6% / 83.8
• FS Micah Hyde 94% / 83.3 (3 INTs)
  • Jaquan Johnson-- 13% / 81.7 (1 INT)
• RCB Levi Wallace 88% / 69.6 (2 INTs)
  • Siran Neal 19% / 39.6
  • Dane Jackson 15% / 56.0

[2006Coltsbestever]

Yeah the ESPN predictor had Buffalo winning at 76% and a 7 point favorite. I would favor them but more like 60/40% and I would take the 7 and Indy. I can see this being a 3 point game either way like last years playoff game.

 

I am going to go out on a limb and say we win this so I voted Colts 1-6. We need this game more than they do + Taylor has looked unstoppable lately. They still play the Pats twice so even if they lose they can still win their division. 

 

Others:

2. Colts will have more rushing yards

 

3. Bills will have more passing yards

 

4. Wentz will be sacked 2 times

 

5. Allen will be sacked 2 times

 

6. I voted no, it isn't a must win but if we lose it will put us behind the 8ball the rest of the season. 10-7 still could get us a 7th spot. A loss Sunday would give us a 6th loss. If we do lose I won't panic but if that happens we have to beat the Bucs and then the Texans to go into the bye at 7-6. That will also make the games vs the Pats and Raiders must wins, both those games are at LOS so we should be favored in those games.

 

[EastStreet]

11 of 11 picks are for the Bills....

Not sure I've seen a pick for the Colts yet lol.. 

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2021/11/19/colts-bills-nfl-experts-week-11-picks/