Double A Breakdown: Week 9 vs Texans

[Andy]

The 5-2 Indianapolis Colts travel to Houston to play the 2-5 Texans in what should be a tough divisional matchup. Both teams are coming off their bye weeks and both are dealing with injuries. Case Keenum starts for the Texans after a solid outing against the Chiefs, and the Colts will play their first game since 1998 without Reggie Wayne or Marvin Harrison. It should be a fun one to watch Sunday night.

 

 

 

 

What the Colts have to do to Win

 

The Colts will need to make a lot of adjustments this game. This will be the first time there is no Reggie Wayne or Marvin Harrison in the lineup since 1998, so it's safe to say this is uncharted waters.

 

On offense, Andrew Luck will have to take over this game. The Colts need to get the ball in his hands and he'll need to make plays. Reggie Wayne is not playing, but TY Hilton is a playmaker, and Darrius Heyward Bey, if playing well, can be like Hilton. He'll need to target these guys this game, as well as Coby Fleener. He's going to have to spread the ball. It's going to be very weird for him to not see Reggie Wayne as his first read, but he's going to have to rely on other guys this game. He's going to have to be extra patient this game.

 

Even if the Colts decide to go pass heavy, they'll still need some help in the running game. They don't need that consistent pounder, but they at least need a few big plays in the running game. Trent Richardson and Donald Brown will most likely split the carries, which is for the better. Both compliment each other well and it gives the Colts that big play ability (especially with Brown, who has several big plays this year).

 

The offensive line will have to come through today. They'll have a tough challenge, especially considering JJ Watt is motivated and dangerous. They'll need to double team him and shut him down. The NUMBER 1 GOAL this game should be to shut down JJ Watt, because if he gets loose, he can win the Texans the game. The Colts also must watch out for the outside rushers Whitney Mercilus and Brooks Reed. Both can do some damage and although they aren't scary, they could use a chip from the tight end on third downs. Finally, the interior lineman need to watch out and account for blitzes up the middle, which the Texans like to utilize.

 

So the offensive philosophy should be to give Luck the ball, let him make the plays and pick the spots for the running game. They should tend to be a bit more aggressive this game, as they can get away with it.

 

As for the defense...

 

The defensive line will need to get inside penetration and open up holes. They don't necessarily need to get that much pressure on the QB, if they're opening up gaps for the linebackers to blitz. That should be their goal, to open up the holes for blitzes and clog up running lanes. It should be a run stopping mentality from the defensive line. However, Cory Redding will need to find the right matchup with Wade Smith one on one and then get to the quarterback.

 

The linebackers are going to be very important in this game. The outside guys, Robert Mathis and Erik Walden will need to set the edge and get pressure on the QB. That's simple, that's their role most weeks. They'll need to be aggressive and crash hard, because on some plays, they'll need to inside linebackers to scrap over and play contain. If the outside guys don't do that, then they can't play contain properly. Speaking of the inside guys, they'll need to play in coverage, but also I'd like to see them blitz a lot, especially if the D-line is outworking the offensive line. Freeman will need to watch Tate (or Foster) and attack the gap that he's running through. He needs to make sure that no one gets behind him. Bethea or Landry should not be making touchdown saving tackles this game.

 

The secondary will need to really focus on stopping Andre Johnson, who was targeted many times against Kansas City. They should put Vontae Davis on him, because Davis is having an outstanding season, and I believe in the theory of having your best cornerback going up against the opponent's best receiver. Butler should go up against Hopkins and Martin against Vaughn. The Colts need to move the guys around and find the best matchups possible; they should set these guys in a certain position, because then you're giving the other team a chance to find good matchups. As for the safeties, they should play a bit deep, but I would like to see Landry become a big part of the run defense game and play in the box. You have to utilize his strengths. So, they should play Vontae vs Andre, find the right matchups, have Bethea play a bit off and have Landry play a bit in the box.

 

The defensive philosophy should be to stack the box, get pressure on Keenum and take away the inside runs, which the Texans will use, especially if Tate's playing.

 

Overall, the Colts need to get to a quick start, so I'm going to go against my idealogy of kicking away first, as I think the Colts should get the ball first and try and drive a bit. They should try and get a lead against the Texans and make them rely on Keenum.

 

 

 

 

What the Texans have to do to WIn

 

On offense, the Texans need to have a conservative mistake free attack. They cannot get too aggressive because the Colts will pick apart Keenum if the Texans become aggressive. They need to give the ball to their running backs (whether it's Tate or Foster), and target Hopkins and Johnson in the passing game. They shouldn't try and throw the ball too deep, especially considering Keenum is a better short-to-intermediate passer. They need to give Keenum some time, because two weeks ago when Hali and Houston got to him, he made several mistakes and it ended up costed them in the end. They cannot turn the ball over and they have to have a balanced attack. What works the best is keeping Luck off the field. The Chargers did it to perfection, giving Luck only 21 minutes of time of possesion. If they can have those long time killing drives, they can help their defense a lot while getting some points.

 

On defense, they'll need to watch out for the playmakers. Reggie Wayne is not playing, but TY Hilton torched them in both games last year. They'll need to have a guy playing deep and preventing those big passes. The Colts have a few deep threats on the team so they'll need to prevent anything from happening there. That should be good in the deep passing game. As for the running game, they'll need to have an inside gap control gameplan, because the Colts are a power running team. If they have the inside linebackers take the two open gaps and even bring down a safety, they'll really shut down the Colts' running game. They'll need defensive line penetration and with Watt, that shouldn't be a problem. Lastly, if the Colts decide to double team Watt, they should bring down the linebacker in a blitz. To recap, they need to take away the deep pass and have an inside gap control mentality.

 

 

 

 

Intriguing Matchups

 

The most intriguing matchup has to be JJ Watt vs the Colts interior offensive lineman. JJ Watt is a crazy player with game changing ability and if he gets loose, he could really hurt this Colts offense. The interior lineman will have to double team him and do everything they have to do to keep him under control. The winner of this battle will have a pretty big say in how the Colts' offense does.

 

 

 

 

Bold Prediction

 

JJ Watt will not have a sack (EDIT)

 

 

 

 

Prediction

 

Indianapolis Colts 23 vs Houston Texans 17

[oldunclemark]

a lot of us just did not respect Houston here....