Schwamm Sez: Draft Day Strategy

[schwamm]

For reference, previous Shwamm Sez posts can be found here:

 

Intro:  Introduction

 

Basics (1):  Know and Understand Your League's Scoring

Basics (2): Know Your Opponents

Basics (3):  Know the Talent

Basics (4):  Be Consistent, Not a Homer

 

Draft Prep (1):  Player Analysis Tools

Draft Prep (2):  Average Draft Position Analysis

Draft Prep (3):  Schwamm's Draft Cheat Sheet

 

So you are walking into a draft, and need some pointers... Here are my thoughts...

 

DRAFT STRATEGY.

 

OK, John Dee, here’s where we break into the commentary I promised you a while ago.  FWIW, I am focusing on 12 team leagues with a 15 round draft (and not individual defensive player (IDP)leagues… simply because they aren’t as common, and frankly I think they are messy and rely on luck more than skill… just my opinion, I’m not looking to be, or likely to be, convinced otherwise).

 

For my money, when trying to determine what positions to draft in which rounds, here are some simple rules I follow (with all rules subject to change in cases of gut feel):

1.  Draft only 1 TE, 1 K and 1 DST. 

You can grab decent enough players on the waiver wire based on matchups to cover your bye, or to address weaknesses, so I wouldn’t waste a valuable roster spot.  Truth be told, depending on how I feel about the QB1 I grab, I might only get one there too.

 

1. Almost always wait until the last 2 rounds to get your K and DST

 

If your team is otherwise perfect, and you are convinced that any deep sleepers you are considering are still going to be available, maybe you can grab a D a little earlier, but I don’t think I’ve ever pulled that trigger before late round 12.

 

1. Do not grab a TE or QB prior to round 6

 

It might be one thing if Drew Brees falls to the 5^th round in your draft, but otherwise I offer the following…  consider that the 24th RB will typically go by end of the 4th, the 24th WR will likely go by early round 6, the 12th QB will be gone by late 7, and the 12th TE will be taken somewhere in 10 or 11... and consider that it’s not necessarily about the points they score, but about the difference in scoring potential between the 1st and last starters drafted (QB #12 = approx. 6 point per game drop off from #1, RB #24 = 12 point drop off, WR #24 = 6 point drop off, and TE #12 = 4 point drop off).   Quick math suggests you’ll lose .85 points per round on average by holding off on QB, 3 points per round holding off RB, 1 point per round at WR, and .4 points per round at TE.  That makes RBs more than 3 times more valuable than QBs, even before taking into account risk of injuries, need for depth, etc..

 

1. Rounds 1-6 are almost always exclusively for RBs and WRs in my book.

 

In 3 WR leagues, I am aim for 3 and 3, otherwise 4 RBs and 2 WRs… most of the time.  It is a good idea to follow your cheat sheet to grab BPA, but mine is usually stacked such that I have only RBs in the first round, 75% RB to WR in the 2^nd, early QBs show up as “unlikely, but good value” in around the 5^th round, and TEs the same in the 7^th.  On a 15 player roster, I typically aim to have 5 or 6 RBs (depending on whether I decide I need a backup QB or not), and another 5 WRs, ideally most of whom are rated in the top 36.  From my experience, you need that many to navigate most ff seasons, and if you get part way through the season and feel your excess is costing you too much somewhere else, you should be in a good position to “win” any trades.

 

1. Always keep an eye on bye weeks, balance, where pockets of talent are, etc.

 

If you are going to grab a second QB, for goodness sakes, make sure he doesn’t have the same bye week as your starter.  As you make your picks, try to keep an eye out for the balance and consistency described a few posts ago.  If you identified key value players in your analysis, say at WR, and are strategically targeting them in a later round, maybe that allows you to ease up on the above rules to address another position earlier than described.

 

1. Do not EVER let your opponents feel good about their picks/draft

 

talk smack , snort, shake your head, laugh, whatever… during the draft and after… and do it early and often.

 

 

I'm out for the weekend.  Next I'll get into some in-season stuff.

 

[schwamm]

Oops.  I guess I messed up the formatting when I copied this into the post.  Everything is so important, I numbered then all 1 !!!!!!

 

Sorry.

[John Dee]

So much Band with for So Little........

 

 

Just go away or ..    STEP UP>

 

 

UNreal

[schwamm]

So much Band with for So Little........

Just go away or .. STEP UP>

UNreal

If you don't like something I've said, debunk it. Otherwise you're just a guy who has already shown me you don't know as much about this game as you think, and can only take cheap pot shots because you have nothing else to offer.

I guess you did offer one gem... that scoring setup affects a QBs value... because they score a lot of points... very sophisticated.

[John Dee]

Bro, I put my money were my MOUTH is ...   

 

I'm in Andy's league..       ready and willing.

 

and as far as the "debunking"    ???

 

You are simply "copy and pasting"   crap from 10 years ago.

 

Dive in and find out.  

If you don't like something I've said, debunk it. Otherwise you're just a guy who has already shown me you don't know as much about this game as you think, and can only take cheap pot shots because you have nothing else to offer.

I guess you did offer one gem... that scoring setup affects a QBs value... because they score a lot of points... very sophisticated.

[John Dee]

Talk is cheap......            Show us the .......................$$$

[schwamm]

Talk is cheap...... Show us the .......................$$$

Yeah, I copied and pasted stuff I wrote a decade ago. In part. And updated it with current examples and data. Your point? Has the game somehow evolved to the point that what I've described has become obsolete? No.

I don't necessarily want to be rude in rebuffing you, but to date, I've made it perfectly clear that I won't be playing, yet you persist.

Sure, Andy's league needs a few more guys. Perhaps I'd be an interesting add, perhaps not. Either way, I won't be playing for the next several years, and any effort to goad me into doing otherwise is quickly going from marginally flattering to thoroughly annoying.

From what I've read from where your MOUTH is... I'm not sure you'd offer much in the way of interesting competition anyway.

[John Dee]

what I expected...        ;)

Yeah, I copied and pasted stuff I wrote a decade ago. In part. And updated it with current examples and data. Your point? Has the game somehow evolved to the point that what I've described has become obsolete? No.

I don't necessarily want to be rude in rebuffing you, but to date, I've made it perfectly clear that I won't be playing, yet you persist.

Sure, Andy's league needs a few more guys. Perhaps I'd be an interesting add, perhaps not. Either way, I won't be playing for the next several years, and any effort to goad me into doing otherwise is quickly going from marginally flattering to thoroughly annoying.

From what I've read from where your MOUTH is... I'm not sure you'd offer much in the way of interesting competition anyway.

[schwamm]

what I expected... ;)

What I expected is that I've pointed out why most of the theory you've promoted is nonsense, and I'd imagine you'd want to offer something, anything, to defend your position... but I don't believe you have anything.

I've proven everything I've ever needed to prove in this game, and I'm willing to put it all out there for all to see... so the fact that I'm not in the least enticed to play someone who appears to be all talk says what about who now?

[schwamm]

I was having a conversation with some friends I used to play FF with, and they were reminding me of another "rule"... so I guess I need to add another #1... If any of the mods feel it merits modifying the original post above, you are welcome to it.

1. I'd advise against getting your panties in a wad and chasing after any runs (other than the one on RBs in the early rounds).

Panic is simply not a useful or productive state of mind while drafting. Stay focused on your plan, and recognize that a run at some secondary position leaves better talent at the ones you are targeting.