Double A Breakdown: Week 3 vs 49ers

[Andy]

A little late today...

 

Double A Breakdown – Week 3 vs 49ers

 

 

What the Colts have to do to win

The Colts are the underdogs in this game and they’ll need a bunch of things to go their way for them to get the win.

Andrew Luck must have a mistake free game and be the difference maker. The running game will be important and they’ll have to go to Richardson and Bradshaw, but in the end it’s going to be Luck that will have to win the game. Luck is going to have to be aggressive and take some shots down the field. His approach and the Colts’ strategy should be to go in there and expect a shootout. I don’t think the defense will be able to shut down the Niners down, so it’s up to the offense to win the game. This is going to be one of the toughest games Andrew Luck has ever played in.

As for the running game, they’re going to have to take some pressure off Luck. Luck is going to win the game for them, but the Colts need to establish a running game so they can set up the pass. Trent Richardson should get a good 12 carries and Bradshaw should get several too. They need to utilize Stanley Havili and they need to run that power running system. They should pound it up the gut/between the tackles as that’s what the Seahawks did last week and it worked. The goal of the running game for this game is to take pressure off Luck and to extend drives to keep the Niners off the field.

The receivers will have a pretty tough matchup. Reggie Wayne will go up against Carlos Rogers, who’s a very good cornerback. The “W” receiver (left outside) will have a good matchup against Terrell Brown, but if that receiver is TY Hilton, the Colts should try and take advantage of his weakness and take shots down the field. I said earlier that the Colts have to be aggressive and I’d like to see the Colts take many shots down the field. Eric Reid is probably going to play but isn’t 100%. The Colts have to go deep. Darrius Heyward Bey should also be used as TY and have Reggie and Fleener be the “under” guys, the guys that take the shorter routes. 

The offensive line will be the most important unit, again. Anthony Castonzo will have a tough matchup against Aldon Smith, arguably the best pass rusher in the league. He’ll need to at least contain and I expect the Colts to use an extra running back on that side or have a tight end chip him. I doubt the Colts will have a 1-on-1 against him. The interior will have a tough matchup against Justin Smith, Ray Macdonald and company. The Colts should try and double-team the player who’s having the more dangerous day. When in the running game, the Colts have to double team the player that is on the strong side of the run. In simpler terms, they need to double team the guy who’s going to be in the line of fire. The O-line has to give Luck time and the interior must open up holes for their power running game. 

The offensive philosophy should be to establish the run early, take time off the clock, and then as the game goes on, be more aggressive and play this game as if it were a shootout, because it probably will be. 

Now, let’s talk about the defense.

The front 7 will have a lot of responsibilities in this game. The defensive line will be responsible for initial stoppage of the running game. They’ll have to penetrate the line and try and stop Gore before he gets to the 2^nd level. He’s having a bad start to the year. The inside linebackers should be responsible for not letting Gore get past the 2^nd level. The running backs are going to get past the defensive line, but they should not get past the linebackers, or that means that Bethea will have to bail them out. They don’t want Bethea to constantly bail them out. The same goes in the read option game, the defensive line and the inside linebackers will have to take care of the inside runs, which are almost always done by the running back. 

The outside linebackers will have to play contain and have to be very wary of Kaepernick. I wrote an article this week on how to stop the read option based off what works and what doesn’t, and what worked is having the strong-side linebacker block off the quarterbacks path instead of rushing him. The rush linebacker should still rush the quarterback and try and get pressure on him. The Colts need to get pressure in the passing game but play contain on most plays where they’re lined up in the shotgun or the pistol offense. 

The secondary have to be wary of Anquan Boldin. He had a huge day against the Packers and if the Colts let their guard down, he could have a similar game. Vontae Davis will be matched up against him and if he’s having some troubles, they may have to double-team him. Boldin is a very strong man and could overpower almost every cornerback. The safeties should be wary of the big passes, but have to act as the last line of defense if the running game has a big game. Antoine Bethea will be that last line guy. 

The defensive philosophy should be stop the run and make the 49ers pass it. The 49ers aren’t as good without their running game just look at last week. 

 

 

What the 49ers have to do to win

On offense, the 49ers have to properly utilize the read option offense. The Colts struggled mightily against the Raiders and their read option. The 49ers have arguably the best read option offense in the league and have torched many teams before. They should try and use it often against the Colts, as it’s one of their weaknesses. Colin Kaepernick should also try and be aggressive. The Colts are missing a piece in their secondary (Laron Landry) and potential another, which means they could take shots, down the field. Boldin is always dangerous and Marlon Moore is good down the field too. They have some good deep threats and they should try to use them especially against a hurting Colts secondary.

On defense, the 49ers have to get pressure on Andrew Luck. Really, if they can get consistent pressure on Luck, they’ll win the game. This means they’ll have to use blitzes and find the right matchups. Having Aldon Smith go against Anthony Castonzo is a good matchup. They should have Ray Macdonald against the right guard (McGlynn probably). They need to find the right matchups and exploit it. The Dolphins got pressure on Luck late in the game and it made all the difference. Once they start getting pressure, the mistakes will come. Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman should be on Trent Richardson alert. The Colts will most probably give the ball to T-Rich a good 13 times this game, and they’ll be the guys that have to stop him. The last thing the 49ers need is another Marshawn Lynch running wild against them. So on defense, they need to pressure the quarterback with blitzes and mismatches and have their 2 inside linebackers worry about Richardson, who will mostly have inside runs. 

 

 

Intriguing Matchups

There are a couple of very intriguing matchups, but the one that is the most intriguing has to be Aldon Smith vs Anthony Castonzo. Aldon Smith is one of the, if not the most, premier pass rushers in the league. Anthony Castonzo has had a rough start to the year. If Smith dominates Castonzo, it’s going to be a long day. If Castonzo can hold his ground, it will give the offense a chance to shine. 

 

 

Bold Statement

Aldon Smith will not have a sack in the game.

 

 

Prediction

San Francisco 49ers 31 vs Indianapolis Colts 20

[Dark Superman]

Just finished my Madden game with SF vs IND..

Colts won 17-13

Luck bombed it to DHB for the TD on the very last play of the game.