Defjamz26

$15 million is exactly where I think his value is. None of the receivers making $20 mil have as low a YPR as he does. 10.8 career YPR and 15 career TDs isn’t worth $20 mil.

We just need elite blue chip talent. If it’s at WR then draft them. If it’s a FS, draft them. That 1st round pick needs to be a game changer though.

https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver#google_vignette Those are the WR contracts ranked. You can not put him in the same tier as DJ Moore money wise because the production and stats don’t match up. But that’s the type of money Pitt will likely want. Based on production he’s probably worth closer to what Hunter Renfrow makes. The question is will he be okay with that?

Nothing really in 2023 which is why I said Career numbers. His yards per catch (YPC) for his career is higher.

Precisely. You can have Pittman, but you need MORE. Pittman as WR1 gets you beat in January if you’re lucky enough to make it that far. It’s almost identical to the situation in Cincinnati. Higgins was good, but you needed Chase to really open up the offense. I think Odunze is a WR that would pair very well with him.

So IMO, WR1’s need to be able to generate big plays down the field and score. You can measure that best with YPC. If you look at the top WR’s in the league they typically average 15+ YPC. Pittman is currently averaging 10.2 YPC and has a career average of 10.8. His highest YPC in a season is 12.6. He’s also never exceeded more than 6 TDs in a season. For comparison, here are the YPC and TDs of some of the receivers who are labeled as WR1: -Tyreek Hill: 2023 15.9 YPC 12 TDs Career YPC: 14.2 -Justin Jefferson 2023: 15.9 YPC 3 TDs (mind you he was IR most of this season) Career YPC: 15.0 -D.K. Metcalf 2023: 16.6 YPC 6 TDs Career: 14.2 YPC -Jamar Chase 2023: 12.2 YPC 6 TDs (Burrow played hurt and is on IR now) Career: 14.1 YPC -AJ Brown 2023: 14.4 YPC 7 TDs Career: 16.0 YPC -Mike Evans 2023: 16.6 YPC 10 TDs 15.4 for his career 1,000 yard seasons isn’t an appropriate benchmark anymore because it’s a pass friendly league. What Pittman does is get a lot of receptions for not a lot of yards. There are several receivers who are already over 1,000 yards with less than his 87 catches. Evans is over 1,000 with 66 catches… You can see it on film though. He isn’t a guy that makes a ton of plays down the field in single coverage. He catches a lot of short stuff across the middle on slants and a decent amount of screen passes. So is he a good receiver? Yes. But elite? No. He really isn’t that much better or worse than Tee Higgins numbers wise, who people overrate a bit. He’s definitely a number 2 but a damn good one. But to win in this league you need to have a guy who can catch the short passes over the middle and also the 60 yard bomb. They also should be able to draw the best corner on the team in coverage.

He doesn’t really have top 10 career numbers though. The only person you could even maybe make a case for him for is Terry McLaurin, and even then there’s certain metrics where Terry is better.

My view has changed drastically, although I still have some hesitations about the long term. I think Ballard took a huge leap as a GM this offseason. He bucked so many of his usual trends when it comes to personnel decisions. There have been a couple of key instances where this has been apparent. 1. His FA class this offseason was as different from his previous ones. He handed out 2 significant contracts for 3 years or more to Ebukam and Matt Gaye. He also signed some lower tier FAs like McKenzie and Taven Bryan. 2. In the draft he finally pulled the trigger on a QB which was probably a year or two overdue. In addition he drafted Josh Downs, who didn’t have the typical physical attributes that the other receivers he has drafted have. It showed a change in philosophy and how much he values the input of his staff. 3. By moving on from Leonard he showed the ability to move on from franchise guys and not just keeping them around because of their position in the locker room or how well liked they are by the fanbase. Making tough decisions for the better of the team is the mark of a good GM. Overall he’s shown a lot of growth in a short amount of time. It seems like he’s learning while on the job and the 4 win season made him reactionary in a good way. He also absolutely nailed the HC hire. I still have reservations about his ability to draft elite talent at the skill positions. While the Colts are enjoying success in the passing game and sacks by the defense, I hope he doesn’t settle like he has in years past. He should still be trying to find that game breaking WR1 and he should still be trying to find the 10+ sack a year edge rusher. That’s my biggest question because I’ve never questioned whether or not Ballard could assemble an average or slightly above average roster that is never really bad. My question has always been can he make the moves necessary to turn the Colts into a legitimate championship contender team like the Eagles, 49ers, Chiefs, Cowboys, etc… I’m not 100% sold he can yet, but I’m way more confident now then I was a year ago.

Remember though. Tyquan Lewis is a FA and the Colts have to decide if they’re going to use the 5th year option on Paye. So by 2025, Edge may be a need as Paye and Dayo are FA’s. It’s better to address it now when it’s not a need, than to wait till it’s a glaring need. Good teams prepare for the departure and of players by having the replacements in house 1-2 years early. Thats what the Eagles do.

As it stands today I would put my money on the first pick being an Edge rusher, WR, or FS.

Coaching is the key. There is talent though. Just need to continue adding talent at premium positions and don’t get complacent. When you combine good talent with good coaching, that’s how you become a team like the Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, etc…

I think it’s possible. Pittman will want top 10 WR money, which I don’t see Ballard giving him. I’ve done the research on contracts, numbers, etc… and based on that I think there’s a chance he doesn’t get brought back. When you look at what the market value is, plus guys like Kenny and Stewart also being FA’s, it puts things in doubt. I could also see him being franchise tagged as well. I could go into further detail with numbers and stats, but I didn’t want to hijack the thread which is actually about Pierce.

They finally gave Cross more snaps on defense. Again he shined with a PD on Hopkins. Hopefully this is a trend going forward.

It’s one game against arguably the worst secondary in the league. It’s hard for me to believe because anyone else who has been open (Downs and Pittman) seem to get the ball. That all depends on if Pittman is back. It is not uncommon in the NFL for players to over-perform in a contract year. Also just a few weeks ago, when JT’s status with the team in the future was up in the air, reports are that Ballard was asking for guys like Jaylen Waddle and Christian Watson in return. I think he is looking for a true 1.

While coaching staff deserves love except for Bradley. People last year tried to tell me about Bradley and I didn’t want to hear it. This season I see it. Also, remember how big of a loss people thought Bubba Ventrone was? Great coach and guy, but ST’s hasn’t missed a beat this year. As evidenced by the Patriots, sometimes we as fans give too much credit to the coaches and not the players.

Good: -This was the best game Minshew played as the full time starter this season -Pittman and Pierce showed up -Hopkins held to 75 yards and 1 TD -Every time Nick Cross gets a real chance to shine, he does -Tony Brown revenge game Bad: -This was arguably the worst game from Bradley this season. Just awful. Did nothing to address the runs to the perimeter which is something the Titans do every time they play us. Kept playing that stupid soft zone coverage even though they have no talent at receiver other than Hopkins, and it almost got us beat -Tackling…AGAIN!!! No one can move laterally apparently. Blackmon is kind of one dimensional, which is why I want to see more of Cross. He’s great in coverage but can not break down and make tackles in the open field. -Two 100 yard receivers is great, but it says a lot that it was against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL. -Need another RB with “juice” for when Taylor is out. Wasn’t all on Moss for the lack of running game, but he need another threat. -Need to draft another Stewart like NT for depth. It’s crazy to think how much worse the run D is without him. He’s low key the glue of this defense Takeaways: This team will need to figure out how to play consistent football going forward. This one was too close for comfort against a horrible team. Gotta learn to put bad teams away early. Best game from Gardner and the receivers, and we finally saw the downfield passing attack materialize. I think that’s still an area for concern. 7 wins with a legitimate shot at the playoffs is a good spot to be though. Overall I think this game showed both who the Colts can be, but also who they are in terms of weaknesses. When the season ends, and Ballard looks at what changes the team needs, I hope he looks at this game.

Would be a great depth piece. These are the type of players I hope we start scooping up more. Veteran players who maybe didn’t live up to their draft hype, but can still give you high level play occasionally.

I had Tyler Nubin in my last mock, but Bullard is the other safety I like. He plays fast and hits hard but is outstanding in coverag.

Thats to be expected year 1. Especially against a guy like Evans. A lot of his growth will come from film work. Once he starts seeing the nuances in receivers releases, he’ll become more predictive and won’t be susceptible to every small movement.

Didn’t he say in a press conference that the QB carousel was on him? Perhaps I’m mistaken. But no doubt he has always valued their input. It just seems like lately he’s been approaching personnel decisions differently than he has been in the past. From FA, the draft, veteran players, etc…And it could be a team thing. Maybe he’s told everyone that the way they scout needs to change.

What I take from that (and from this whole 2023 draft class) is Ballard is learning to trust his staff more. He drafted Downs who wasn’t the typical Build-A-Ballard type at receiver, because Wayne spoke very highly of him and he fit what Steichen wanted. Year 1 he’s already out produced Campbell and Alec Pierce’s individual production from last year. Jones had a shorter arms and was slower than typical Ballard corners. He took him because his scout pounded the table for him. Even Richardson. Morroco Brown was the first guy on AR and got Ballard to really look at him. We talk about the leaps the players on the team make, but Ballard took a huge leap this offseason as a GM.

It is. But when you factor in how bad Baker was immediately versus how much better Jones was…well immediately, it lends you to believe that the staff just missed. I mean if he wasn’t ready we’d have seen it reflected on the field with poor play. He’s had his rookie growing pains, but he’s looked like he’s been ready for awhile now. He popped in pre-season too. Just food for thought.

Flowers was playing okay. 1st game was rough for him and Baker. 2nd game was better, but he wasn’t playing as good as Jones is now. I just never got the hype with Flowers. I call it how I see it. This has been one of Ballard’s hits in the late rounds. I’ve watched every Colts game this year so far and you never see him being a liability. I wasn’t down on Rogers when he was here, I just thought he was more of a nickel than a starting outside corner. Franklin I’ve been a fan of since last year. Same with Speed. Low expectations with everyone obviously, but when they produce you can’t deny it.

Both bonafide starters IMO. Franklin leading the league in tackles. But once again I look at Bradley. Why did it take injuries for him to realize he was better than Baker?

He was targeting Evans. No matter who the QB is, Evans will get his targets. He’s a Hall of Famer. Evans had 70 yards though…