BlueShoe
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I spent years listening to every word I could find that Bill Polian said. I tried to find key words; he often used, to really understand his thinking process. I consider him one of the greatest talent evaluators and football minds in the history of the NFL, and I can honestly say that I learned more from him than any other person about football, even though I never actually met him. I have stood very close to him on several occasions, but it never was my style to make situations about me. I enjoyed playing the role of the sponge.
Now that Bill Polian is an ESPN Insider, I find everything he writes to be very interesting, as his thoughts are no longer a guessing game of masked words, but rather straight forward and to the point, and in his writings he often uses experiences that I can remember from a Colts fan point of view. These experiences are confirmation that I either understood the situation well or that I was not on the right track.
There is an article about Manti Te’o that Bill wrote yesterday, and he brings up a topic that was highly debated years ago, if anyone remembers the Rob Morris and Gary Bracket debates, or should we call them what they were at the time, which were somewhat insane message board mind wrestling. For those who may not remember or were not involved, I will summarize and refresh everyone’s memory.
Rob Morris was the most criticized Colt in the history of Colts message boards, and Bill Polian took a beating for drafting him in the first round. If we were all in a physical room back then then Bill would have been eyebrow-beaten until he said uncle several times. Every time Bill would pass on drafting another middle linebacker, several fans would say that Bill is only doing so because he is too proud to admit that he made a mistake with Rob Morris. We drafted Morris in 2000, and Gary Bracket came along a few years later in 2003. Gary was an undrafted free agent and quickly became the fan favorite to become our starting middle linebacker, which he did eventually win out.
From reading Bill’s new article about Te’o yesterday, Bill let it be known that in 2009, we were interested in drafting James Laurinaitis; however, we passed on him because he ran a 4.81 40 at the combine, so the Colts dropped his grade and he was off the first round board. A move that Bill admits was the incorrect call, nevertheless, a model that he stands by and probably should as the process made him very successful in the draft. Bill’s model was always to draft production, character, and speed, and refers to these types of players as winning players. Bill acknowledges that in the Colts draft model, while he was general manager of the Colts, an acceptable 40 time for a middle linebacker was anything below 4.74.
This is only one small example of several articles that Bill has written. I am interested if anyone else enjoys reading Bill’s work as much as I do.
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I was begging for OLine several years ago, thought we'd go that direction in the draft, and endured ridicule then too.
So now that a more serious attempt has been made to address the line, let's take a minute to see what the Colts actually have in the backfield before getting all knee-jerky.
Looks like we agree on the history, but draw radically different conclusions from the info at hand. I still say Grigs is all about value, and value is much harder to find at RB in the first round.
Grigson is a very good talent evaluator and he has done enough in his first draft that he gained my respect quickly. I think many people are looking into RB's drafted in the first round as a negative thing, because of the past. In today's rookie contract scale, and with the extra year given for a first round pic, and with most teams utilizing a RB by committee approach; we are going to see RB's taken in the mid to late first round more often. The value is there because the rules have changed.
The issue I have with most of the responses in this thread is how so many people believe that we can draft a RB anywhere in the draft and be successful. To me; that is nonsense. It doesn't work that way. Teams have been lucky to find RB talent late in the drafts, but most of the later RB picks never work out. That said, not all first round pick RB's work out either. But we can say that about every position.
Remember when few teams would ever take a guard in the first round? That has drastically changed too. The new rookie salary cap rules are changing everything, and most fans haven't put two and two together to realize the impact yet. I am sure there will be a fan on a Colts board explaining everything I am writing at this moment to me in a few years though, as if it is new news to me.
Bottom line; it all depends on what Grigson wants, and if he can sell the idea to Irsay.
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Would you do it? Lets say we don't get a WR for some reason at #24.
Would you give up that 2014 1st to hop back into the top 10 of round 2 & secure a playmaker?
I'm curious to how people feel after what happened w/ Ugoh.
It all depends on how that first round shakes out, but me personally if I knew we were adding 2 starters/impact players I wouldn't hesitate. I think this team is real close & I feel we should be aggressive while we have Luck on his rookie deal.
I have never been a fan of trading away a first next year for a second this year. I would be a fan of trading away a second this year for a first next year (if we had a second). The only reason we did that in 2006 is because Polian wasn't prepared for Glenn retiring and he took a gamble on Ugoh in the draft.
The only trade I can see good for us is; moving back into the second and picking up some more picks. That said, anything can happen.
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So to make sure my less informed fan-ship and slower mind is following along as best as possible...
The line had been terrible for years... so the team needs to add a running back?
I certainly appreciate your thorough recitation of the history of the OLine. Certainly nothing new or earth shattering, just a reasonably accurate accounting. Where I don't follow is your non-sequitur you wish to use as a conclusion.
If you want to say the RBs struggle, so fix the OLine, I can follow the logic.
If you want to say the OLine is terrible, so upgrade at one or more positions there, that makes sense.
But to say the OLine struggles, so we should add a RB, as if that would address a problem on the line... That logic may need more explanation.
The O-Line is in better shape right now than it has been in years. We have invested serious money in a RT free agent, drafted a LT a few years back, and brought in several new faces on the OL. We haven't brought in a big name free agent tackle (for a player that wasn't our own) since plan b free agency, and Tobin drafted Glenn and Meadows, although he never receives the recognition for them or Harrison.
The funny thing is that I was making a case that we needed to upgrade our offensive line 3 years ago on this forum, and I was met with the same distaste as I am seeing in this thread. We ended up drafting OL with picks 1 and 2 against everyone's wishes (except mine), just as I said we would and was ridiculed for. We have taken steps even further by bringing in free agents, and now people are screaming that we need OL? Makes no sense to me. We have invested in the line - Plenty! If we see a game changer in this draft then we have to pull the trigger. I am sure Grigson is going to draft the player that he feels is best for the team. Everything else is just fans on a message board - beating their chests.
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Just to have some fun with all of the forum members I ask you this:
When will DHB sign his contract???
Lets be honest... the guy has not garnered much attention around the league as a free agent. He has been out there long enough for someone to have landed him already but, nobody has tried yet. Word is the Colts and the Jets are the only teams linked to him as of now. I am pretty sure a guy like DHB does not want to play for a team like the Jets with a QB like Sanchez.
So this is how it will go down... the time that I plan on using to determine the winner will be when rotoworld posts the exciting news. Forum member with the closest time to the MINUTE will get my undying praise for about ten seconds.
I'll go first: 3:07PM
Get your answers in ASAP or you just might miss out on all this undying praise I have to give!!!
My guess is that the issue is the amount of years. The Colts have nothing to gain by giving him a vet minimum 1 year deal, because he is young and could thrive in our offense - see Avery. That said, DHB would be smart to take a 1 year deal on a team with an elite QB, because he can produce and elevate his stock, which could get him a nice payday in 2014. When potential is in the air, these types of deals can take a while and be hard for a player to make. My guess is that the Colts want to give him a 3 or 4 year deal based on his performance thus far, and he knows he can get stuck outperforming the contract.
In my opinion, this is why the deal hasn't been signed yet, and if/when it is, I expect to see incentive clauses.
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We were so, it came from here-
Posted Yesterday, 11:29 PM
BLOODontheTRACKS, on 26 Mar 2013 - 00:30, said:
BlueShoe
**We ran the ball on trickery by fooling defenses. You can thank Peyton for that success.**
It was then BoTT and myself responded. Then you change the statement to after Edge's line of 2004 or Addai/Rhodes line of 2006 where Peyton and the backs had field days. Any back would have suffered the same fate. We lost a lot of those guys off that O line and their drafted replacements were flops. Of course we have been bad running since then. Many of us are surprised at the production at times of some the backs despite this... Peyton trickery, possibly but it wasn't enough in any event.
After 2002, our offensive line was a better pass blocking line than run blocking and this trend continued until we also couldn't pass block. If anyone here disagrees with that then they were not paying attention, at all. We became a finesse offensive line and we won most of our running battles because we fooled defenses and utilized the stretch play with a lot of play action. We haven't had a dominate run blocking line since mid 2001 when we had a combination of a healthy Edgerrin, Steve McKinney, and Adam Meadows was healthy and still a Colt. As soon as Edgerrin got the power back in his knee then Meadows health started to fail.
Our offensive line throughout the Peyton years were at its best when we had this lineup:
Tarik Glenn, Steve McKinney, Jeff Saturday, Larry More, Adam Meadows.
In 2002, DeMulling and Diem replaced McKinney and Moore and yes losing McKinney was a HUGE downgrade, and this started a downhill spiral in our running game, in which Peyton had to be creative for our running game to be successful. Remember the line shift in 2002 when we moved DeMulling to LG and Diem to RT? If you lived it on a Colts message board then you will never forget it.
After 2004, we lost DeMulling and our guards were Lilja and Scott. Do you believe that was a dominate run blocking line? If so then I don't know what you were watching.
After 2007, we lost Glenn and that is when the average Colts fan began to realize our running game was becoming inadequate at best. This is when Peyton really had to turn up the trickery for us to successfully running the ball.
Other than drawing this out for you in crayons, there is not really much more I can do to help you understand this. I have already spent more time educating you with this than I care to. If I spend anymore time then I am sending you a bill.
If anyone here thinks we absolutely will not use our #24 pick on a running back then I don't know what has been passed in this circle, as I have been gone for about a year or so, but you guys are highly mistaken. I am not saying that we will use our #24 on a RB, but I am not discounting it because you believe that "RB's are a dime a dozen". That is just crazy talk. You have to draft game breakers when the opportunity is there. If Grigson believes that Lacy is a game breaker then he will draft him, and it won't matter what anyone on a message board says. I am sure that half the people in this thread will change their tune at that point though, and say they were always in favor of drafting Lacy, because that is what happens on message boards. I have watched it happen for nearly 20 years.
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No, Peyton and Edge had the best line in the league in 2004 and 2005 (irregardless Peyton throwing them under the bus vs. Steelers in playoffs).
C 63 Jeff Saturday 5 29 6-2 292 North Carolina RG 73 Jake Scott 0 23 6-5 283 Idaho RG 56 Tupe Peko 1 26 6-4 305 Michigan St. LG 65 Ryan Lilja 0 23 6-2 285 Kansas St. LG 64 Rick DeMulling 3 27 6-4 304 Idaho RT 71 Ryan Diem 3 25 6-6 331 Northern Illinois LT 78 Tarik Glenn 7 28 6-5 332 California
With Marcus Pollard, Dallas Clark, and Ben Hartsock at TE. Lilja was the rookie backup to DeMulling then.
Peyton set passing records in 2004 behind these guys, and Edge benefited greatly too. I'm hoping we build something similar here soon for Luck, Brown/Ballard! Go BPA (not RB) in draft Grigson!
We were not talking about our O-Line when we won the Super Bowl. I am not sure anyone is arguing with you about the line when Glenn was still playing. After he retired our line started to go downhill every year.
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When the Colts won the SB Glenn was playing...along with Jake Scott....it was a good line
We were not discussing our Super Bowl year. We were talking about the years after Glenn retired.
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Well I think everybody that has posted in the thread besides Blueshoe has summed it up pretty well. RB's are a waste of a pick early in the draft. We don't need one and I hate the excuse of, "well what happens if so and so gets injured" teams that draft because they're afraid of injury at a certain position, are teams that fail.
We are talking about a late first, which gives an option for an extra year under a very cap friendly rookie scale. I t doesn't matter who agrees with us on a message board. In the end, it is what the Colts management believes is best for the team.
If Ballard goes down is a good question for the Colts management to ask in draft meetings as I am sure they are.
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There is a huge difference to potential for injury between initiating contact and getting blown up. Rarely in his career has he even had the chance to initiate contact. The Colts OLine has been miserable his entire career here, and his injuries can easily be attributed to the abuse he's taken as a result.
He averaged 112 carries a year over the past 4 years, while Ballard carried the ball 211 times in just one year. They have the same line. From your example, Ballard should have been hurt after 100 carries too. Brown is injured so much that Addai was healthier than him, and Joe tapped himself out every other play.
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No, the colts actually had a good offensive line
Our offensive line has not been good since Glenn retired. It went downhill every year after that. We are just starting to rebuild it and have some solid pieces now. Peyton masked how horrible the line really was by getting rid of the ball quickly and fooling the defense with running plays when they thought we were passing.
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I don't miss Edge at all. After Edge left, the Colts won the SB behind the running of the incomparable duo of Addai and Rhodes. Running backs are a dime a dozen
We ran the ball on trickery by fooling defenses. You can thank Peyton for that success.
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I must be watching different games. I've seen him get BLOWN UP. Many times. In the backfield.
By many, do you mean the few carries he gets before he is done for a few weeks or the rest of the season. I understand homerism, but at some point reality has to set in. Donald Brown is a one chronic injury problem after another.
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About what? Whether we will draft Lacey? I know we won't.
No. We will know whether or not he will be a good back on the NFL. This is where we differ, hence I believe we could draft him and that he fits for us.
I am saying he will be a good back and that we could draft him. You are guaranteeing that he will be terrible in the NFL and that we have no chance of drafting him. You must have a huge part in making our picks with how confident you are. Tell Grigson I said Hi at the next draft meeting you have with him. ;)
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Blocking isn't just to open lanes. Getting blown up in the backfield down after down, game after game, season after season tends to lead to injuries. I'd still like to see DB play behind a decent line.
He doesn't take many hits before he is finished. He is not durable. All kinds of potential; but he cannot stay on the field.
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I guess I'm not a homer then.
I've said it for years, and stand by it now: fix the line, then you can judge the RBs.
Injuries and lack of production can both be easily traced to poor blocking, lack of running lanes opened, and general lack of protection. If the line gets fixed, and the RBs still struggle, then I'll agree its time to move on.
In the meanwhile, Brown was productive when he was on the field the last two seasons. I realize it is a favorite sport on this forum to bash DB, but his critics strangely disappeared when he was doing his job, only to reappear again in the offseason.
Let's see what these guys can do with this new, revamped OLine before we decide that a first round pick needs to be spent on yet another RB (who would likely have struggled behind a line like we had last year, and been labeled a bust before getting a reasonable chance).
I am not a Donald Brown basher. I believe he is talented. The FACT is that he cannot stay healthy. He could be the next Jim Brown, but if he is hurt all of the time then he does us no good. He is doing us absolutely no good and we cannot depend on him.
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No, he doesn't. He is a RB, and a little above average.
Your opinion on a message board. My opinion differs. We will see who is right soon enough.
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No, he isn't. If he were great value at 24 maybe.
Only if you are confusing value with bargain.
Lacy has plenty of value at #24.
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He ran behind 4 maybe 5 future NFL OL. Consider me unimpressed. As for BlueShoe, you think it is likely we take him, or you want us to take him? Hint- it's the latter.
It doesn't matter what you or I want. I am looking at the most likely choices. Eddie Lacy is becoming more likely.
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Has anyone picked up Michael Turner or is he done? Probably don't have the money now but at the beginning of FA I thought he would be a good pickup for the right price. Better than Whalen at 4 yr./16 million IMO.
Turner is still a FA. He is a 10 year veteran and last year wasn't kind to him. Atlanta released him to sign another older RB. That's got to say something, and likely why Turner has not been signed yet. I am sure some team will pick him up at a cheap price.
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Taking a RB in the first round has been a poor idea for a number of years now....
As the passing game has become more important and the running game de-emphasized, it rarely makes sense anymore....
I like Lacy. I think he's the best back in the draft. But look how much we got out of Ballard, and we got him in the 5th round. That's the new NFL. There's rarely a reason to use a 1st round pick on a RB. Sure, there are exceptions to the rule.
Richardson was OK for Cleveland, but a disappointment considering how high he was taken.
Wilson was mostly a disappointment for the NYGiants.
And the TB kid was very, very good. But RB's grow old fast in the NFL.
It's a risky proposition. Use a lower round pick for another back to pair with Ballard.
That would be my approach.
I can appreciate your opinion, but we are drafting #24, not top 5. There is nothing wrong with taking a chance on the best back in a draft at #24, especially when a team needs one.
If Ballard were to go down next year, do you really feel like we could be successful with Brown or Carter? I don't.
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That's why they are not the starter, they are the situational and the change of pace backs
They are situational backs that either can't stay healthy or can't hang on to the ball. They both need to go. Sorry, but we all know deep down that is the truth.
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I really dont understand why even both wasting a 1st round pick on a RB you can get it done with an average one how far has AP lead the vikings?
not very
It is not AP's fault the Vikings do not have a passing attack. I do not agree that backs are a dime a dozen. When you have a chance to draft a game changer then you pull the trigger.
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Your right we aren't a one back team that's why we have 3 different ones.
An even a homer will agree that Donald and Carter are not the answers. At least this homer can admit it. ;)
Trading 2014 1st for 2013 2nd
in Colts Football
Posted
Then I have made a mistake to give you the benefit of the doubt, because teams have traded a first the following year for a second in the current year. We did it in 2006. Remember Ugoh?
So YES, a team would do it if they needed the pick bad enough.