BlueShoe
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You must have not seen the Steelers play this season....
The Steelers Offense Under Arians:
2008: Run 460 Pass 506 (47% Run)
2009: Run 428 Pass 536 (44% Run)
2010: Run 471 Pass 479 (50% Run)
2011: Run 434 Pass 539 (45% Run)
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Not with Bruce Arians... He'll throw it as much as he can.
We aren't going to throw the ball 35-40 times a game with a rookie quarterback.
Just because Arians was a quarterback and a quarterback coach doesn’t mean he is a pass first guy. He is also been a tight ends coach, wide receiver coach, and running back coach.
Steelers fans biggest complaint against Arians where that he was too predictable with his play calling, especially in the red zone.
In 2011, from the ten yard line or closer the Steelers ran the ball 55.2 percent of the time compared to the Packers who are a pass first team running the ball only 29.1 percent of the time.
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How can we have a run first offense with Addai and Brown. Neither one of them are built for that type of offense. Luck could be suited for a run first offense because his college offense was pretty much built on being able to successfully running the ball. Also, this has been far from a perfect offseason with Manning and Irsay going back and forth and March 8 looming large.
I don't see why Brown and Addai couldn't do it. I am sure we will use more than two backs as well. Bring in another guy later in the draft or as a journeyman free agent. Darren Evans seemed to be a fan favorite and everyone was screaming to give him the ball. We just him back, I believe.
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No offense, but reading this made me sick. I hate the idea of run-first smashmouth football. If we want that then whats the point of selecting andrew luck first overall? He will just be a game manager....... I hope none of this really happens and we stick to some good ole pass happy play-calling..with a good defense. I can only hope we dont turn into a smashmouth team. Not only will it be boring to watch, but in a league where passing comes first, why would we wanna take a step back? We are not built to run down peoples throats at all and we dont even know if our defense will be ok-top notch..
I hate to be the bearer of bad news for you then, but every sign points towards us becoming a run first football team.
You take Luck first overall no matter what type of offense you install.
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Nice post but I'd rather re sign Garcon than Wright. Garcon is proven and still young. The 2nd ( I like your thinking somewhat) pick I would look for either OL, nose tackle or a cornerback. The Colts only need one other good DB because Lacey can cover man if need be.
I'm shooting for a 10-6 record in 2012...
That could happen. Drafting Poe in the second if he is there and bringing Garcon back could also work.
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In are Pagano, Arians, and Butler.
The Colts have moved in a new direction of the AFC North in the attempts to become a smash mouth play football type of football team. Run the ball and play great defense will be our philosophy.
Peyton, I love you but I think Irsay has made it clear that it is time for Peyton to retire. Obviously Irsay knows Peyton’s medical condition and out of loyalty and respect he is not disclosing that information directly to the media. It is just a matter of time before Peyton comes to grips with the reality that his career is over. It’s terrible as a Colts fan to see this happen to such a great player.
Enter Andrew Luck.
The new era will not be built around Andrew Luck. It will be built around playing great defense and a run first offense. Andrew Luck will benefit from this the same way Tom Brady and Ben Rothlisberger have benefited from being in their systems. That being said, Luck has far more upside than either of them. He might only throw the ball 20 to 25 times a game in his first few seasons. His completion percentage might not be among the best in the NFL because he will be throwing the ball on third and longs more than on first and ten. He might only pass for 3000 yards a season over his first few years. This is who we will be; however it is the same type of offensive mentality Luck comes from college to the NFL with. Stanford is a run first offense.
We need to franchise or re-sign Reggie Wayne. (LEADERSHIP!) We need a veteran wide receiver to help the younger players along. Without having to pay Peyton this season, we will have the money to bring Reggie back. Reggie will continue to be our possession receiver and be a huge asset to the Colts.
Enter Kendall Wright.
With our second pick if we could land the speedster from Baylor then we would have a replacement for Garcon, only Wright can catch the ball. His shake and bake will demand a double team and make play action a nightmare for teams.
Austin Collie is in his final year and can resume his duties as the slot receiver. Were it not for injuries in 2010 and weak quarterback play in 2011 then Austin would be among the top five receivers in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns over the past few years. He was leading the league or close to it in 2010 when he went down to injury.
Our running back situation is solid. Donald Brown could flourish in our new offense. Donald is under contract until the 2013 season. Joseph Addai is also under contract until the 2014 season. This one two punch will continue to be the leading ball carriers for the Colts. Delone Carter’s fumble issues might be too much to take a chance on as ball control offense cannot afford a running back putting the ball on the ground every game.
We have our tackles in place. Ijalana could move inside if needed, however Castonzo and Ijalana look to be our starting tackles moving into the 2012 season. We will need to address the middle of the offensive line; center and right guard.
Dallas Clark is under contract until the 2014 season; however he is weak in pass protection and run blocking. Cutting him is an option but I don’t see us doing that this season. Andrew Luck is great in utilizing his tight ends in the passing game. Lucks ability to find his tight ends at such a young age is one of the telling signs of just how NFL ready he is. Most quarterbacks do not start using their tight ends until they are at the elite status. Jacob Tamme is a free agent and he will get an offer to move on. Brody Eldridge is a great fit for the new run first mentality and might see the field as much or more than Clark because of his ability to block. If Eldridge can stay healthy he could become a star in the new offensive approach.
So why would we go offense with our first and second picks? The answer is pretty simple, in my opinion. We need to have balance and if we can’t move the ball then we should just throw balance out of the window. No defense can hold up in the modern NFL era if their offense struggles to score points and effectively move the ball.
Free agency could be big for us this season. With the new type of defense we will be running I expect for Moala and Nevis to become our starting defensive ends. We will need to address the nose tackle and defensive tackle spots so we can move from a 3-4 look to a 4-3 look. It is possible that Anthony Johnson could be the defense tackle in the 4-3 schemes and he is under contract until 2013. We will need to bring in a nose tackle or draft one. If Dontarie Poe is available when we draft our second pick them he would be a great move; however he is moving up the boards and will likely be a first round pick, especially with all of the 3-4 teams drafting later in the first round.
Our corners can’t play man to man. We will need to bring in a free agent corner or two.
We are in a good situation at linebacker. I think Simms, Wheeler, and Brackett will be out and we will retain Angerer, and Conner. It appears that we are going to try to plug Freeney in at the jack role and we are serious about re-signing Mathis. Those two seem pretty upbeat about their future in Indianapolis. Time will tell if it works.
At the safety position, Bethea will flourish in a defense that can actually stop plays before they get to Bethea. How many times did Bethea save a touchdown last season? It was like every other play it seemed. Allowing Bethea to play looser could make him into an Ed Reed type of player who can make game changing and winning plays instead of game saving plays. Bullit signed a three year deal last season so I would expect him to be our opening day strong safety as long as he can stay healthy. Again, with our safeties not having to make the majority of the run stops and saving tackles we might just be able to keep them both very healthy and allow for them to be much more productive.
Okay so we need a nose tackle, at least one (but likely) two man corners, depth at linebacker, re-sign (or franchise) Reggie Wayne, a speed receiver to stretch the field (Kendall Wright), a center to replace Saturday, a real right guard, and depth on the offensive line.
Do these moves indicate that we are certain to have a championship in 2012? Obviously not, but we will be in a good position to be a contender and build towards the future. I could see a 9-7 record with that team and we would be a team that no team wants to play down the stretch. We would be younger and also have Luck’s years from two to four be downright scary for the rest of the NFL.
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He wasn't a good HC, but he did help put together the Ravens Defense. So Pagano & Del Rio working together could be a good thing...?
Any thoughts?
I would be okay with that.
He did a great job on the defensive side of the ball and shares the same vision of a defense as Pags.
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After hearing Pagano in his press conference, it was pretty clear to me that his intentions are to slowly move this team into a 34/43 hybrid defense like the Ravens play.
I don't think he dodged the question very much and he even elaborated some on how it would eventually be done.
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I can never get on. It streamed right at the beginning then would never let me on from any computer
I hope they keep it in media so I can watch later.I am sure they will have the press conference in full archived later.
It is a MUST SEE for all Colts fan!
It's funny how everyone says they got their man. We really did get the right guy here.
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That shouldn't be funny, but it is. Look at how they put him in the front of the rig.
WOW!
lol
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Again, this has been scheme more than anything. All they've ever wanted him to do was pressure the QB. We were built to play with a lead.
Aside from that, you suggested coverage liability... well, Demarcus Ware has 1 INT in his 7 year career. He's played in 112 games. While I know that doesn't tell the whole store, it sure sheds light on it. His counterpart, Anthony Spencer, also has only 1 in his 5 year career.
As to stopping the run... I seem to recall Freeney bullrushing a lineman straight into a RB and making the play through him. He does more than just spin around opposing lineman. He may not be a premier run DE, but his entire career with the Colts was never about stopping the run. When he had to, he did just fine.
Ware drops into coverage a little over 10% of the time, but he is very effective when he does. That's why he doesn't have the eye popping pass defense numbers.
Again regarding Freeney, he has done one thing his entire NFL career. He will be 32 next month. Not a good recipe to change up what he does now.
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I'll tell you what you pay him as... Dwight "Frickin" Freeney. Ever hear of a guy by the name of Demarcus Ware. Care to guess how much he's making? Care to guess what position he plays?
I'll answer those for you... 7 years, 79 million. OLB in a 3-4.
Ware seldom goes into coverage. Freeney seldom goes into coverage. Ware is a dominant pass rush threat. Freeney is a dominant pass rush threat.
No doubt they will try to do something with the contract. But the reality is, he is one of our best defensive talents and letting him go with the possibility of also letting Manning go simply does not make sense.
Personally, I don't see the pessimism some have in this. Pagano can run a hybrid system as Baltimore has said they often do. You play Freeney with his hand in the ground. You play him standing up. You do whatever you can with him to wreak havok on the opposing QB. He's done it his whole career. Why not now? Because he's standing upright instead of being down? If I am not mistaken, the man is capable of standing.
Freeney just about never dropped into coverage when we were running a 4-3 zone scheme (His entire career). Let's face it, that defense is long gone. It is going to be scrapped. Time to move on from it.
I wouldn't call Ware dropping into coverage (10% of the time) seldom. Those are real plays that have to be played at a high level. Ware is very good against the pass when dropping into coverage. Ware is also very good against the run. He is not a dominate pass rusher. He is a very good pass rusher. He does everything very good.
Freeney is not equal to Ware.
Just as Ware is not equal to Freeney.
They are not the same player.
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So we know he doesn't play the run very well do we?
You don't think that maybe, just maybe, the scheme we've long played dictated that? His one and only job was to get to the QB, and he did it better than most in the league.
I love Freeney and I will argue that he is a great defensive end to anyone who says he is not. That being said, we know from watching him all of these years that he does not play well against the run. Teams will actually run straight at him because they know this too.
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Angerer, IMO, would make an excellent ILB in a 3-4 D. Brackett, not so much. But Pagano's D is not a typical 3-4 so I don't know.
I even wonder if Brackett will be back. I agree that Angerer can play. He can play in any defensive scheme.
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This would be my thought as well. Philips didn't get into Houston and change their defensive philosophy by ousting all of his talent. While he isn't the HC, he still went in and switched them from a 4-3 to a 3-4, and made a remarkable improvement.
Thing is, Freeney would be no different than Mario, Tamba Hali (who is bigger than Freeney), Elvis Dumervil, and others who have made the transition. This could even boost his production.
But nope... Freeney doesn't fit? Why does he not fit? I don't see where the basis is coming from.
The only reason Freeney may not make the transition is because of his salary cap numbers and whether or not they retain his services. Outside of that, he is simply a shorter version of some of those guys. And as he's displayed his whole career, (as has Dumervil), height has nothing to do with getting to the QB.
Can you see Freeney dropping back into coverage? What would happen if Freeney is one-on-one with some of these new hybrid TE's?
If all Freeney had to do was rush the quarterback then fine. I see no reason why he couldn't do that; however that is not all a RUSH LB does. They must be able to drop into coverage or else the defense will become too predictable.
And we all know that Freeney doesn't play the run very well. The RUSH LB must also be able to read run and make a play.
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The 19 million price tag is ugly, but what is uglier is our pass rush when Freeney is not around. We have seen it time and time again if Freeney is not out there our pass rush is nonexistant.
Do we really want to get rid of the guy who has proven that he can consistently get pressure by himself? I would be more willing to let the guy go if Jerry Hughes has shown us anything in the two years that he has been here. Our hope now is that he magically gets it if he is turned into a 3-4 OLB. That is a lot of hope to put on a guy who has been nothing bu a first round bust.
What I am more concerned about if we go to a 3-4 is not what we do with Freeney or Mathis. It is who is going to be our NT because god knows our DT get pushed around now. I cannot imagine any of them playing NT in a 3-4.
The draft has some options for us. Dontari Poe would instantly be on our radar.
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If we go 3-4...we solve the problem of Pat Angerer OR Gary Brackett..
Its Angerer AND Brackett...right??
Yes. And we could play them both in the 4-3 we used to run too.
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Further to Freeney, he's entering the last year of his big contract, yes? If that's the case, then it seems like a no-brainer to simply renegotiate his contract with a 3 to 4 year extension, with the restructured contract being more "cap friendly". He's a dynamic player, one of the NFL's best pass rushers. If there's a problem because of his contract, you fix that problem. Simple. What you do NOT do is panic and simply dump him because you are too stupid to restructure things.
It's not that simple.
What do you pay him as (DE or RUSH LB)?
Linebackers make less money.
The one year franchise value of a linebacker for 2012 is going to be 8.8 million
The one year franchise value of a defensive end for 2012 is going to be 10.6 million
Now we can't franchise him, of course, but those numbers are important when a player renegotiates a contract.
THREE years ago, Suggs got a six year 63 million dollar deal and 38 million was guaranteed. That was three years ago, but the numbers in 2012 are likely to drop from 2011.
Freeney is 31 years old and will turn 32 in a few feeks. Are we really going to give him a six year deal that will pay him until he is 38? I doubt that. I don't even see us giving him a four year deal and paying him until he is 36.
On top of age and money, we don't know how he would fit in the new scheme. We can expect a new scheme and it is more likely that he won't fit.
So, sentimental value is to keep an aging player who costs a lot of money but probably can't play in the new system anyway. I don't see the optimism that some do in this.
It would be very hard to even put a package together and trade him. What team would want anything to do with that contract? Half of the teams in NFL run the 3-4 so they would have the same issue. I think we might be forced to release him.
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I'm pretty sure we'll find put our answer today, CP will get questions about the 3-4 and freeney and Mathis so we'll see what he says.... for the money part I can understand but as for scheme freeney can play the 3-4.... anyone can these days.
Not every player can play in the 3-4.
I hope they actually do answer these questions today; however I doubt they will. I can see them dancing around those questions for now.
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19m has everything to do with DFree....
It is actually a combination of the two. He costs a lot of money and he doesn't fit.
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Exactly the would move to the outside linebacker spot which is exactly what you would ask OLB's to do in a 3-4 rush the passer. Who knows moving to a 3-4 might work out really well for Freeney and Mathis.
It would be tough, IN MY OPINION, for Freeney to convert to a 3-4 OLB. His job has been to rush the quarterback for how many years now? That's all he does, play after play. His weakness against the run is well known by Colts fans. Can we really pay a guy (19 million dollar cap hit) who probably can't play in this new defense? It doesn't add up.
Even if we stay with a 4-3 base, it would be very hard to imagine staying with the DL we currently have.
Ravens:
DT - H Ngata 350
NT - T Cody 349
DE - C Redding/A Jones 292/313
Rush - T Suggs 260
Nevis and Moala will likely become DE's in our new front seven. We will need to get at least one very large NT/DT such as Dontari Poe.
I don't see anyone currently on the team who can play the RUSH LB, as the RUSH LB will also need to be able to fall back into coverage. Without that ability, the defense will be too predictable.
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this is blasphemy... you dont take a possible hall of famer and just show him the door just because you dont think he fits the 3-4.. freeney could very well be a beast in the 3-4.. he's one of if not the fastest RE in football.
It is blasphemy. Do you think I want to see Dwight's career be over in Indy? I can still remember watching him in his first training camp and just how much raw potential was there in him. I have seen every NFL play he has ever been involved in. I don't want this to be the end.
HOWEVER; when you look at his 19 MILLION dollar cap number then it is clear what is about to happen here. We can't afford to pay him and it won't make sense to redo his contract when there is a great chance he won't fit in the defense we install anyway. We are not going to be running 99% zone with 40-50% Tampa2 anymore. That is very clear to see here.
So while it sucks; it is what it is. There is no sense in blaming me for pointing out the obvious.
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Why don't people think he can play DE in a 3-4 Defense? If he has a good NT I don't see a problem with him at DE with his hand in the ground. What I don't see is him standing up trying to be a LB. That's not going to work or happen.
Well, I am not shooting at you here - promise, but I don't see any way in the world where Freeney could play DE in a 3-4.
In my opinion, we are going to get bigger at DE. Moala and Nevis will likely be our DE's if we move to a 3-4.
I don't think we are moving to a 3-4 overnight, even if do move to a 3-4 period. But we are going to get bigger. I really believe that. It's just playing out that way in my head. It is what makes the most sense.
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Hopefully Pagano uses Mathis like he did Suggs. Mathis is definately athletic enough to play this position.
And I think Freeney either needs to rework his contract, or be traded because he is costing us WAY too much this year.
And I really hope he gets the best out of Jerry Hughes as well. If he can we could have a crazy pass rush this year with Mathis, Hughes, Wheeler, Nevis, etc.
I don't think Mathis is Re-Signed.
Doesn't really fit now, in my opinion.
JUST MY OPINION.
I hope they keep it in media so I can watch later.
The Perfect Off-Season From (1/29/12)
in Colts Football
Posted
The Steelers Offense Under Arians:
2008: Run 460 Pass 506 (47% Run)
2009: Run 428 Pass 536 (44% Run)
2010: Run 471 Pass 479 (50% Run)
2011: Run 434 Pass 539 (45% Run)