stitches

Here's a graph that shows our inability to pressure opponent's QBs:

Agreed on this, but it's also more expensive and has opportunity cost. I don't necessarily disagree. Except... I'd rather us trade up in the draft as well. Lets say we swap Pittman for Aiyuk(for similar value)... then trade up in the draft for MHJ or Nabers. Now this is a WR room to really get excited for.

I didn't value Drake London anywhere close to the way I value Nabers or MHJ. How about this framing: In 2021 the Dolphins gave up #12 + 2022 1st rounder+4th rounder for #6 and they drafted Jalen Waddle. They got a cheap great talent at WR. That cheap talent(and rookie QB contract... and some other savvy deals that got them picks) allowed them to trade for Tyreek Hill and give him 30M a year a year later. We are in very similar position - rookie deal QB, pick in top 15... great WR talent possibly available in the 6-7 range. Well... except we don't have additional future picks... right now(maybe we can get some with some savvy moves?). Here's one more... in 2021 the Eagles trade up from 12 to 10(in order to jump division rival Dallas) for Devonta Smith(I liked him much better than Drake London too). That cheap WR talent in combination with cheap rookie deal for Jalen Hurts allowed them to trade #18 in the 2022 draft for AJ Brown and to give him a big contract. Now sure... you have to actually hit on AR and Nabers/MHJ ... but you get my point, right? IMO this is a very sensible way to build around a rookie contract QB and let those players grow together as your franchise pieces.

We hired Justin Hamilton for DBs coach. He was defensive quality control coach for the Titans before. So... we don't really know how good he will be since he probably hasn't done that job before.

Agreed. EDGE can play in any scheme, but I still feel like Ballard has a type even with the EDGE rushers. Dallas Turner looks small to me(for what Ballard likes). Laiatu Latu fits the size, but might not fit the athleticism requirements(and Ballard has actually drafted very explosive EDGE rushers). I guess Jared Verse is the one that fits best what Ballard usually likes. Big, long, explosive. Darius Robinson is like... Dayo clone of a physical marvel. I just wonder if that's not too early for him and if we would want another player of that mold?

I am not sure we have that guy. I'm not sure many teams have that guy to be honest. Hooker was supposed to be that and he was showing signs of being able to do it.. but then injuries hit him. I think Blackmon is OK as one of our 2 safeties for the time being... if he can stay healthy. I'm not 100% certain we have the other guy. Cross had some nice moments, but again... not sure he has the consistency to be full time starter... Rodney Thomas IMO got a bit overrated after solid rookie year. IMO he's more of a rotational piece than a starter.

To be honest I don't think Stewart is the problem of this defense. And you are not exactly saying he's the problem but IMO he's plenty good enough for what else he provides. We can live with one DT not being amazing pass-rusher. But we need the EDGEs to actually wreck shop.

(if we change the scheme) We need CBs who can play man coverage... we need better EDGE rushers... and after the talent drain of last few years at LB... we probably need to add a LB or safety who can cover modern day TEs.

I don't think I would do that. I'd much rather give the picks for MHJ or Nabers. Then use the remaining money to strengthen the team. Yeah... there is value there, but IMO the uncertainty is even higher and if AR hits you won't be in striking distance of getting that type of talent every year.

I know it's not directed at me but... we need to disrupt the pass. We cannot afford to allow players like Stroud(and he will be right here for the next dacade +), or Lawrence, or Mahomes, or Burrow, or Allen, or Lamar or Herbert, or whoever to just know in advance exactly what they can expect once the ball is snapped. You need to disrupt his timing, make the receivers have to work to get open, make the QB to have to hitch for a fraction of a second, make him actually doubt that his guy will be open when he throws the ball. This is on the backside. This is in addition to actually rushing him and directly disrupting him via pass-rush... well timed and disguised BLITZES, etc. You cannot just allow them to hit their backfoot and drive the ball uninterrupted wherever it's designed to go. This is the biggest weakness of this defense IMO. We do not disrupt the pass... at all... unless we win quick with pass-rush(which we don't very often).

We might(if he's for sale)... but you also have to pay Justin Jefferson ... per year you have to pay him the full rookie contract of a Nabers or MHJ. If you have anything close to certainty that those would be great players you might as well go get him and then use the 20M a year or so left to get yet another high level WR ... or EDGE... or... whatever you need.

I agree. Just because some of those can play man coverage doesn't mean they cannot be great at zone. For example, according to PFF Arnold graded higher in zone coverage than in man... both high grades BTW, but still... I really hope somewhere along the way Ballard changes his philosophy. This is not the 80s or 90s. This is a passing league. You NEED high level CBs, who can play multiple different coverages well and who can let your coordinator(whoever it is) the freedom to mix things up and actually disrupt the opponent and make them uncomfortable... not just ones you can live with or ones you can patch things up with.

OK, here's an interesting question... would you give an extra 1st for one of them? Lets say Nabers or MHJ falls to 6(right ahead of the Titans)? Do you go get him? I'm usually against trading up for anything but QB but... I would be very tempted...

Dane Brugler posted his first top 100 board of this draft season. Here it is: https://theathletic.com/5270481/2024/02/13/nfl-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-100/ Some things thatI found notable: - QB rankings - Caleb(1) -> Maye(4) -> Daniels(8) -> McCarthy(24) ->Bo Nix(37) -> Pennix(57) -> Rattler(88) - > Pratt (100) - MHJ is no. 2. Nabers no. 3 prospect in the draft. Bowers no. 5. - Joe Alt OT1 - Terrion Arnold CB1 ... this seems to be setting as the consensus in most of those analysts boards. I think pretty much every one I've seen has him as the best CB. - Quinyon Mitchell CB2 and no. 11 on the board. This is the highest I've seen him, although he too is settling down as CB2 in most boards I've seen. - Dallas Turner - EDGE1(no.12) - Brian Thomas - no. 14 - the highest I've seen him - Byron Murphy DT1 - no. 15.... this too is becoming kind of a consensus - the best DT in the draft and ranked in the teens by almost everybody - Darius Robinson no. 31... another big board after the senior bowl where he jumps up the board... - 7 OTs in the top 30... just like with most other big boards I've seen. 11 in the top 100! - 17(!!!) WRs in the top 100. Ladd McConkey at 34, Addonai Mitchell 35... Troy Franklin 40, Roman Wilson 45... Xavier Worthy 46 - 12 CBs in the top 100. - Junior Colson LB1 at 39... Edggerin Cooper LB2 at 42. - Tyler Nubin S1 at 41... Jaden Hicks S2 at 43 ... Kamren Kitchens 62 Doesn't seem like great LB or S class... - Jonathon Brooks RB1... but at no. 70. Must be one of the worst RB classes ever?

Too early for me to have strong opinion on this one since I haven't really watched most of the players in our range. The thing is... even if we like some of those players they might not fit our scheme or the mold Ballard likes. For example, Dallas Turner seems like an exciting prospect but he doesn't seem like the type ballard drafts. He's listed at 242lbs in Alabama. He looks even lighter to me. I like a few of the CBs and if it were I'd be all good with drafting one at 15... but is Ballard going to go with CB in the 1st? Kind of doubtful. I like a few of the OTs that are likely to be there.. but we don't really need one right now. I guess... the perfect pick that marries our needs and talent commensurate with the investment is... Brock Bowers. I still haven't delved into his tape like I want to, but I've heard only good things and many people have him as a top 5 talent in the draft. What I will say is... from the little I've seen, I'm not 100% sure I'm sold on him. I hope the more extensive watching will convince me. i don't see it with Kamren Kitchens. I don't think he's a 1st round safety. He had pretty nondescript Senior Bowl too.

I don't mind taking the ball 1st. Yes the team that responds knows what they need to do, but the team that gets the ball first, also has the ball 1st in the sudden death part of OT when both teams have had the ball(score still tied after both teams have possessed the ball) and then the second team doesn't have the chance to respond - all you need to do is score... any score... BTW, this would introduce some new dynamics in the choice of whether a team should go for 2 or not in overtime. For example, if you are the second team and you just scored a TD to equalize the score... it incentivizes you to go for 2, because you know that any score from the opponent on the next possession is game over.

That was a fun offense to watch. I think I read somewhere that not only did they have more explosive plays than any other team in college football this year... but they had more than the LSU Championship team with Burrow, Chase and Jefferson. That's kind of insane when you remember just how dominant that 2019 LSU team was. Nabers is amazing, probably the most fun player in this draft. I wish we had a shot at getting him. In almost any other class he would be WR1. I almost wonder... if he starts falling... lets say he drops to 9-10 for some reason... do we go get him? IMO he can be the perfect fit and missing piece in an offense with Pittman and Downs. He plays tough and much bigger than his size and he has great balance and after catch ability both because he survives first contact(doesn't automatically fall on the ground) and becaue he's really shifty and can avoid tackles this way too, I'd be surprised if he measures above 6 feet tall and I don't care one bit. I want him on my team. Problem is - not very likely he drops out of the top 10. Thomas is my new favorite for the Colts in case we can't get any of the top 3. I don't know where he ultimately goes... IMO it's possible he has a rise in the draft if he kills the combine. But if not I can see Ballard trading down and getting him somewhere in the 20s if he lasts...

Beautiful! Lets go!

They showed great resilience and winners mentality. They had no business being in this game after that first half and somehow they hang around and finally took it. If we want to compete at that level we need a player of that breed of special and we need a defense that is not shy about mixing it up. I hope Gus and Ballard are taking notes.

This was the most disgraceful day for Colts fans since I became a fan of the team. Those that booed Luck should be ashamed of themselves. I felt second-hand embarassment on their behalf too. What an absolute %show. I understand perfectly the anger and confusion and despair at that point, because I was feeling the exact same things. But none of that should have been aimed at Luck. Grigson and Pagano and however many OCs there were during his tenure should have carried the burden of that early retirement. I will never forgive that and I will never forget how those incompetent fools ruined the career of one of the best QB talents in history. They should wear that shame on their foreheads forever. On the thing TY said. I'm not so sure he's right about that. IMO once Luck made that decision, it was over. He was never going to come back.

Jeremiah released his first of the year top 50 big board for the draft. Here it is: https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2024-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-1-0 Some notes from me: - Caleb and MHJ no. 1 and 2 prospects for him. - Rome Odunze is no. 3!!!!! - Maye and Daniels both in top 5 - Terrion Arnold CB1 - no. 6 - Joe Alt OT1 - no.9 - Dallas Turner EDGE1 - no. 10 - Taliese Fuaga pretty high too - no. 11, OT2... this is second big time pundit that puts Fuaga much higher than most others this week... - Quinyon Mitchell - in the top 20, again... second big time pundit who puts him as his CB2. - TONS of OTs at the top of his rankings - SEVEN OTs in the top 20!!! This is insane! I don't think I've ever seen anything like that. Zierlein was similar with 7 projected top 32 picks. - Edgerrin Cooper - LB1.. .I think this is the first one I've seen him this high. - Byron Murphy DT1 at no. 22. - Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy both in his top 30. - Devontez Walker in the top 30... this is kind of shocking when you consider his performance at the Senior Bowl. - Darius Robinson - no. 32... - Kool-aid McKinstry - no. 36, I think this is the lowest I've seen him - Malachi Corley - no. 50.. the highest I've seen him I think... - 10 WRs in the top 50... 7 EDGEs in the top 50, 7 CBs in the to 50...

Yes, Wilson is another one. I doubt he will be available for a second though...

Why the hell would you cut one of the best and most consistent RTs in the league? You can probably get a 1st or 2nd round pick for him if you make him available for trade?

If Ballard wants to get a premier WR he needs to do what the Bills and Eagles did. Get a young one coming off his rookie deal. One that's just going into his prime so when you pay him the big money you know you are paying for his best years, rather than catching him on the downturn of his career. And Diggs fits that latter category - he's very likely going to be deteriorating over the next 4 years(already in his 30s and already some signs of decline). So yeah... Target a great WR that a team is reluctant to pay past his rookie deal. I know there aren't many of those but that's why those GMs are being paid the big money. They need to feel the situation in other teams and strike when they get the chance. Just some examples of players who soon will want big time extensions and it's unknown whether their team would be able/willing to pay them - Jaylen Waddle, entering 4th year of his rookie deal. Ceedee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk from the class that are entering 5th year of their rookie deals... Are the Eagles going to be able to pay Devonta Smith? So on and so forth..

Yah, I was talking in general, before the Tenny news... I guess Steichen values Tenny more than Johnson... or Johnson didn't want a demotion of sorts...