stitches

This will not be a popular opinion here but the reality is - in the long run most GMs will have about the same success rate with picks in the same range and even in the first round you cannot really rely on the picks working out at super high rate. So if the league wide success rate is 50%, a reasonable expectation for a good GM is to get it right 55% of the time, not 80-90-....100% of the time. And BTW that's the reason trading down is usually a good move - it gives you more bites at the apple, while the success rate is not impacted dramatically. Example - let's say the success rate at 15 is 55% and you get an offer to trade down to 20(assumed success rate of 50%) and a 3d round pick(assumed success rate 30%). You get a lot more value from just trading down than by having above average drafting GM compared to average one. Of course here we are taking very simplified binary approach, but if you do the same with expected value(expected WAR, or whatever performance metric you want to use), you will get similar results. That's why I'm usually against trading up and in favor of trading down. You are usually adding value to your team with trade downs. So yeah..this is where the GMs really make the big difference in the draft(And Ballard has been good with it in that respect). The second area where the GM makes a difference in the draft is what positions they decide to prioritize with the high value picks(and this is where we probably can have some gripes with Ballard because he's spent some really high value picks on low value positions). But even in that case - him drafting Nelson super high was working out great until his injuries hit(he was the OL with highest WAR in the entire league for the first 3 years in the league)...

Thanks for picking for me. IMO my pick for the bears can be qualified as a bit of a reach but I just got wiped out on my board. Ideally I would have liked to trade back and gotten some more picks but couldn't get it done. Oh well, Latu was the highest player left on my board so I'm happy with it, but in the real world it's possible Latu goes much later because of injury concerns.

I'm going to bed, have fun with the draft guys and gals. I've sent my picks to @NFLfan...

I wasn't thinking about releasing him. I think he has value on his contract, He's one of the best RTs in the league. But still ... he has contract for this year and next. After that ... if we are preparing to pay our LT(Raimann) and our QB(if AR pans out), we might need to make some sacrifices with some top of the roster players. Or we might trade Braden Smith if we get a good offer... Yep! That's IMO the most likely scenario. If I had to bet right now on any position or trade back, I'd bet Ballard is going to trade back. I think the most likely is neither CB, nor WR at 15. IMO the most likely is still trading back...

How sure are we Ballard wouldn't draft an OT at 15 if he really likes one of them? I kind of cannot exclude the possibility of any of this happening. I think people are still preoccupied with the idea of drafting for need, when Ballard has shown in the past that if he sees value he will draft at positions we don't have big immediate needs at. For example, lets assume Fuaga is there and Ballard thinks he will be amazing OT... while we are paying big bucks for Braden Smith. Maybe he decides he wants to prepare a move away from Smith in the next year or two... and in the meantime he strengthens the line as a whole by adding another high level talent who can play both RT and possibly RG...

I have to reiterate that the Bears at 9 are still willing to trade down ... But that offer will be on the table for like... 3 more hours because I will be going to bed after.

Nice trade... I might have done that for 9

He was moved all over their formation. Here are his splits last 3 years: Still has over 500 snaps at deep safety last 2 seasons.

Anybody have interest in moving up from the teens to 9?

Jaden Hicks is the guy we should be looking at rather than Nubin. He fits better what Ballard likes...

No surprise. The Bears have already ran to the podium and are doing cartwheels and painting their nails 💅

We are still not even in OTAs... tons of time until mid-season

Damn, that's terrible. So young... RIP

I do. I just have fallen in love with Latu at this point.

Urgh! I hate you! I think I'm going all in on Latu. I think he will be great. Don't take this to mean I don't want BTJ.

Sam Howell, 4th and 6th got traded for a a 3d and 5th... if you use the regular trade chart that's equivalent to late 3d or early 4th round pick. Pickett and a 4th were traded for 3d and 2 7ths... this is the equivalent of a mid-4th.

At least 1 MVP and at least 2 Super bowls...

It says on the graph - scramble % on the X axis, yards per scramble on the Y axis.

Let the hype continue:

Here's some food for thought... Just how much did Ballard want Sneed? Because Sneed is a CB who played a ton of press-man with the Chiefs... Is Ballard moving away from the off-coverage that he seems to like? Or at the very least - is he trying to diversify the coverage we are playing a bit? If so... again, Kool-Aid played the most press-man and at a high level from any player in the draft(he has over 500 snaps in press-man the last 2 seasons). The other one is... Arnold(over 300 snaps in press last season and a half), but he's a bit under the 32" arm length threshold.

Yeah, I'm not certain about the compensation. It's really hard for me to gauge what different players are worth when you have to give them a top money contract in addition to the picks. The league is all over the place with those... Some get 2 firsts, others that I would have expected to get 2 1sts, get a 1st and some change... But yah, my point is Ballard should be on top of all those possibilities and probing for a potential opening to get one of those players while we have Richardson on his rookie contract.

I had not considered this before today, but I listened to an episode of The Draft Show(this is Dallas Cowboys show about the draft) and they are not expecting this to happen or something but they did mention potential possibility of trading Micah Parsons(their reasoning was - their team is becoming harder and harder to maintain and they have started losing a lot of players to FA without obvious replacements... they need picks and they need to refresh their roster with cheap high level talent). We have discussed the possibility of trading for a top tier receiver, but we are talking about Ballard here... is really a receiver more likely position to trade for? Or is a DE? Especially since we know he tried to go for Danielle Hunter at top of the market money? If Dallas decided they cannot afford Parsons going into what would be the record-setting DE contract of the league... would you be willing to 1. give him that record setting DE contract to Parsons? and 2. give Dallas what it would take(very likely 2 1st round picks?

In the spirit of the decades old friendship between the owners of the Colts and the Bears I give @jvan1973 the right of first refusal to a trade up to no. 9(Bears pick)...

I don't think we are taking a DT but not because we signed Lewis or Grover or Davis. If there is a reason to not take one of the top DTs in the draft IMO that reason is that they don't exactly fit what Ballard likes in his linemen(length). BTW I would REALLY hope Ballard is not making decisions about the very top of the roster(top 15 picks) based on backups he's signed in FA.