Superman

This is all pretty interesting. One of the things that might have hurt Levis during draft eval is his decision to sit out the bowl game, and the Senior Bowl. Everyone knew he was hurt, but it only came out right before the draft that his toe might need surgery. It's probably true that he was more injured than people realized at the end of last season. Physically, there's a lot to like. The tape is a mixed bag, but still supports a first round pick; him dropping to #33 is the biggest surprise of the draft. But I agree with you, I think between the injury and his interviews, there were probably a handful of teams that were considering him, but decided not to pull the trigger in the first round. The Titans moving up for him is a strong indication that they viewed him at least as a fringe first rounder, and probably thought other teams felt the same way, so they made the move to get him.

Stroud is reportedly working with the 1s this week. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/06/01/c-j-stroud-working-with-first-team-offense-way-way-ahead-of-pace/

Isn't every QB's TTT higher in college?

I think mid 50s is a reasonable expectation. But I don't really know, we haven't seen anything yet. If they stay really conservative with the passing game, it could be higher. If they let him sling it all over the place, he could struggle to hit the 50s.

Luck's completion percentage gets brought up often, but it's important to acknowledge that he played in an inefficient offense with a bad OL and no running game, and he was a major gunslinger. With Luck, there were no questions about ability to perform, he'd already shown himself to be efficient and accurate in college. His progression was about improving the approach and refining some details. And IMO, he didn't get the coaching he needed until 2018. I have some questions about Richardson's ability to perform, but like you said, early on it will be about testing his limits and gaining experience. Expecting him to have a good completion percentage early on is probably unreasonable.

I think an important thought here is that people were picking the Colts to be good based on three main assumptions: 1) We had a good OL and running game; 2) We had a capable, veteran QB who would benefit from the good OL and running game; and 3) We had a coaching staff that would maximize these anticipated strengths. Those assumptions didn't hold true. A month into the season, it was obvious that the OL wasn't good, the running game wasn't effective, the QB couldn't perform, and the coaching staff wasn't in a good place. So I'd say that our presumed starting point from last season is totally irrelevant, because that starting point was basically a myth. It would be a mistake to assumed that our OL is good, our running game will return to 2021 status, our QB can perform, or our coaching staff is ready to maximize our strengths. In fact, we can't be sure what strengths we have, especially on offense. On the other hand, if you want to project that the OL will be better, that the running game will benefit from JT being healthy and maybe from Richardson taking the snaps, and that the coaching staff will likely weaponize whatever options we have on the field, I won't object. That's my hope as well, but it's unrealized so far. My real objection is with using the preseason projections from last year as a basis for preseason projections this year.

Yeah, this is pretty basic. In fact, the article in the OP is about the designed run game, not about whether a QB should be able to operate as a pocket passer. It's about how this approach bolsters the run game and influences the defense, and it's pretty plain to see.

It seems like the point is to make kickoff plays so inconsequential that they can come back and say 'less than 1% of kickoffs is returned past the 25, let's just get rid of this play.' And if that's the case, just get rid of it now. Make the case that it's the most dangerous play in the game, and not worth the statistically rare but exciting big return, and eliminate the play altogether. At the same time, approve the proposal for a 4th and 15 to replace an onside kick, and you can actually recoup some of that excitement. Maybe more... there would probably immediately be as many 4th and 15 tries as there are big kick returns. And that would probably influence decision making at the end of games -- more 4th down attempts, more 2 point attempts, just generally more aggressive decisions to try to put games away, because a more legitimate alternative to the onside kick makes it easier for a trailing team to get the ball back.

This is where I don't know what to think. It's very possible that Strausser wasn't on the job in the last couple years, but the OL was still really good in 2019 and 2020, and they were good run blocking in 2021. So while it's likely that coaching played a big role in the regression, it's hard to pin the entire drop-off on the coaches. The Matt Pryor situation is shocking, he looked good in 2021 but was a mess last season, maybe due to body composition. And the other part is that I don't think there's any evidence for us outsiders that Sparano is/will be a good OL coach. I like his pedigree and background, but it's his first time in this role. He might not be any good. Hopefully he's great... Personnel-wise, I think we're probably okay, assuming everyone is reasonably healthy. Biggest questions are LT and RG, but Raimann came on as the season progressed, and I think Pinter has more than he showed in 2022. I'd like more competitive depth across the board, but we have a lot of young guys. The unknowns with coaching are more of a concern for me than the personnel right now. And I guess it's pretty hard for good players to make up for bad coaching, especially at OL. All it takes is one mistake by one guy, and the entire OL fails.

I agree.

It's the Commanders... They're probably trying to get him to pay back his vending machine credits.

I think they can do an injury settlement based on his roster designation, maybe that's the reason. Passing a physical is subjective anyway. He hasn't been all that great in recent years, but I'd take him as competitive depth at guard.

I asked because compuls1v3 said three bad years in a row is a problem. Going back to 2021, he was a top 10-15 OL, at worse, and he was injured. In 2022, he started out looking bad, but got better as the season went along, and I think he was above average overall. I think people tend to exaggerate the standard for highly paid players. We definitely need Nelson to play better than he did last year, but I don't think anyone should be expecting him to be gone after this season.

Do you think Quenton Nelson was bad in 2021?

Height isn't good, but his arm length is pretty good for an interior OL.

Herbert was near the top of the league in batted passes last year, and he's 6'6". Height is a factor, but it's not the only one, and it's probably not the most important one when it comes to batted passes. I have more questions about whether Young can see the intermediate middle of the field than I do about batted passes.

Yup, you're right. Here's the PFR snap count link for that game, showing Pryor at tackle for 61 snaps. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202210230oti.htm#all_home_snap_counts

I think this is a rough year for the Titans. They have some personnel losses, they're not great at a couple of positions, and at some point the Derrick Henry production is going to fall off (signs suggest maybe it's already happening?) Unless Tannehill goes off, or Levis is really good, I think they're a .500 team. The Texans are kind of unknown, any team can take a jump, especially with a new HC. But I don't see their roster being significantly better in any area from last season, they're just building right now. The Jags, I think, are for real. They've built a strong roster, and for the first time in a long time they have a good coach and a good QB together. They might have some weakness on OL, but I think they have the coaching staff to mitigate that. Bigger questions are on defense -- soft pass rush and questionable secondary. But they're still the best team in the division, IMO, and should be a 10 win team, with potential to win more if Lawrence really steps up as a franchise QB. You can probably pencil in a loss for the Colts in Jacksonville. I don't have high hopes for the Colts winning the division this year. Anything is possible, but our team probably isn't ready to compete at that level yet. Of course, there is no powerhouse team in the division, and the Jags won last year going 4-2 in the division, winning 9 total games.

There was also a rumor started by a disreputable former Colts blogger back in 2018. He claimed before the draft that Manning would be joining the team as President of Football Ops (or some similar title), Ballard would report to him, it was basically a done deal, and would be announced some time after the draft. None of that proved to be true. I think there was a lot of Manning/Colts stuff being made up back then. Even Manning/Broncos stuff. There was a rumor a while back that Manning was buying a minority stake in the Broncos as well. But every time anyone asks Manning whether he wants to join a team in an official capacity, he shrugs it off. So I think some of this stuff is just being imagined by curious people on the Internet.

To be honest that was my initial memory as well. I checked his snap counts and they all show at tackle, so maybe they just got it wrong. Also remember we moved Braden to guard for one game -- maybe the Denver game? -- and maybe Pryor was at RT and not RG? But you might be right. Ultimately, we agree, Pryor was terrible. I wonder what happened with him. I think he said he lost weight over the offseason to try to be a little quicker, maybe his body composition was the problem. But such a drastic drop off in one season is really strange.

It's good that he's gone, but he only played tackle for us last season.

Same, I don't think this move says much about positional strengths. That's generally the case with these deep roster churning moves in the offseason. I still think we need a move at OL.

Who knows? Just mentally accounting for them, assuming they have good seasons this year. And of course, any of our FAs could walk, even if they look good.

That changes pretty quickly once you account for Pittman and JT. Add in potential deals for Rigo Sanchez, Blackmon, Rodgers, and Pinter, and the money is basically gone.

To the bolded, no one will be, right? He's alone at the top of the mountain, in terms of overall athleticism. And I agree, Luck doesn't belong in the conversation. Culpepper tested better than I remembered. I'd say Culpepper, Newton, Griffin, Vick, Jackson, and I'd add Josh Allen as well (his numbers are quite there, but the way he used his legs right away in the NFL makes him a legit comp, IMO). And yeah, injuries is a major factor to consider. When your QB exposes himself in the running game, it increases the risk of getting hurt. And even if there isn't a severe injury, smaller injuries tend to add up and cause problems over time. I think I'd say 20% for Richardson right now. We haven't seen anything yet, so I'm basing this off of what he looked like in college. I'm fine with moving this way up pretty quickly, but first I want to see what he's doing with his fundamentals, and how it looks on the practice field. Then I want to see how the staff intends to use him this year, and what it looks like -- is he starting, if he's not starting are they working him in, can he handle the speed of the NFL, does he look overwhelmed in any way, etc. Edit: Meant to add Fields to that list of comps. And that speaks to how the coaches use Richardson, and how he looks. The Bears plan for Fields hasn't been great, IMO.