Superman

I haven't been reading as much on it, so you're no doubt more informed than I am. I might just be hoping for the best. But 'hundreds of bets' in one season has to be more than just betting on the outcomes of games. Based on the precedents, he's getting at least a year, and probably longer. Like you said, I hope no other teammates were involved, but it's very possible.

I haven't spent a lot of time on this, I feel like there's too much unknown info so far. But after reading some of the updates from the league about the gambling rules, I'm wondering if Rodgers was just playing daily fantasy. A bunch of smaller bets could be setting his lineup every week. Betting on his own team could mean adding Colts' players to his lineup. And then the bigger bets could have been on what the Colts would do in the draft? Just spitballin... Rapoport sent this out today. I think it should be simple enough for players to adhere to these rules. I also think it's possible for players to underestimate how seriously the league is taking this, maybe thinking they won't get caught...

Yeah, good to see him get signed somewhere. I hope he does well.

Yeah that was good stuff. He mentioned the Rams depth chart also. He shared some insights I found interesting: the salary cap gets all the publicity but owner budgets are just as important; sometimes the delay for player contracts is about language and structure, not value; when players are "insulted" by low ball offers, it's usually justified; when teams decide to cut/trade a player, it's not always about cap space, it's more often about their view of the player's value to their team... Nothing ground breaking... the part about language and structure stood out though, because I often wonder why contracts tend to take until the last minute. It's apparently about prioritizing the minutia and reaching agreement on some of those details, payment dates, guarantee dates, etc.

I have to go with Reich, but I think in the first few years, Reich's overall staff was better than Pagano's. I was never a big fan of Arians' as a play caller, but he was pretty obviously Pagano's best assistant, and he only lasted one year.

Ironically, I think the only time players were held accountable during the Pagano era was because Grigson dropped the hammer. Reports in the last few years have said that it was Grigson who wanted to suspend and bench Richardson, for example. I think Pagano was a player's coach, maybe to the extreme. He was more outwardly emotional, but I don't think he directed much of that toward correcting players. But I don't think Reich was big on confrontation, either.

I had the same question yesterday. I think there's a rule about how much can be won from a casual fantasy league, but they can't do daily fantasy through an online sportsbook.

I think players gambling either way on their own games is very problematic, and to me the prohibition makes sense.

I think there are plenty of ways for a player's bets to be publicized. Even by the player himself. But I'm still wondering about your answer to the main question there: Do you think it should be okay for a player to bet on his team to win?

I think an option would be acceptable. Onside kick isn't as dangerous as a full kickoff. So if a running team really would prefer an onside to 4th and 15, they can have that choice. But I think the bolded is wild. Since the onside kick rule was changed in 2020, teams recover onside kicks attempts at 6.7%. Since 2013, teams convert 4th and 15 attempts 21.9%. https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/posts/history-of-onside-kicks-in-the-super-bowl-recent-attempts-successes-stats-01gr4a49de0r#:~:text=Onside Kick Success Rate by Year&text=Check out the last 10,56 attempts recovered (16.1%) https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-fourth-down-conversion-chart-rate-by-distance/vofkeub6xwms6imajxqkfipp

I think the reasons for the prohibition are obvious. Do you think it should be okay for a player to bet on his team to win? If it was, and Player X bets on his team every week, and then all of a sudden in Week 15, he doesn't bet on his team to win, how does that influence the market? Does it influence the game itself?

I don't see that as a meaningful distinction.

Agreed. Prohibiting players from gambling on games that they participate in or have inside information on is neither hypocritical nor complicated. It's common sense. Also, my understanding is that NFL players are not prohibited from betting on other sports, they just cannot bet on NFL games.

Doesn't pro football in general strongly favor teams that are good in the passing game?

Maybe. I personally think Ballard is media inclusive because he thinks it's good for the fans and the organization, not because he enjoys it. Not to say that he doesn't like it, just that I don't think that's been his motivation.

I just checked and you're right. They did the scouts pressers last year, and Ballard did a film review a couple weeks later. Doesn't look like it's gonna happen this year. Blame Steichen... /s

I feel like they replaced that with the scouts interviews right after the draft.

Monti was working... Entire room was quiet, no one talking but him and whoever he needed info from. That's kind of a thrilling scene to watch. I would absolutely love to sit in the room during the draft and just observe.

You already caught the 120% adjustment, that's the only thing I was going to mention. I assumed the number would have been more like $100m total, but QB salaries have really jumped up since 2020 -- Rodgers, Wilson, Watson, etc. Still, I think he could have easily commanded $100m in the first three years, if he wanted. And that's still a bargain for the Chiefs, compared to what other QBs since him have gotten. Kyler Murray signed after Year 3, and got $108m cash flow through three years, compared to Mahomes $65m.

Speaking of Mahomes, he had the standing to command a buy out of his 5th year option, and two tag years, to get his early cash to match or come close to what he would be paid if they didn't work out a contract. He wound up making about half of what he could have, right? This is about more than just the tag base. His contract is a huge favor to the Chiefs. You're probably spot on about Hurts, I think I was looking at his option bonuses as roster bonuses. So there's probably nothing to restructure for him. Jackson seems like an inevitability, by 2026 at the latest, and by then he'll have made $156m. Still far outpacing Mahomes. He already has rolling guarantees, there's not much he can ask for without basically ripping up the remaining years and getting more money. And it seems like he's fine with how things are going, which, good for him. He's taking down $40m in cash this year, he's probably the preseason favorite for MVP, and the Chiefs are currently favored in SB odds. I think he might be eyeing bigger things than earnings, and he has a reasonable shot to get where he wants to go.

Let me ask you this: When do we ever see a top five QB sign a contract that pays him cash that averages 59% of his total contract yearly average? Four years in, Mahomes is averaging $26.5m/year in total cash, and his yearly average is supposed to be $45m. Jackson's yearly average is $52m, and he's scheduled to make cash of $208m in the first four years, which equals $52m/year. Hurts' yearly average is $51m, and he's scheduled to make a yearly average of $39.25m, which is 77% -- which is very team friendly in terms of overall structure, at least for now. Mahomes' yearly cash is coming up way short, and it makes his contract an extreme outlier. And that's before Jackson or Hurts get restructures in two or three years, which will pump up their four year cash even more (half of Jackson's 2026 base goes guaranteed in 2025, and his 2026 cap hit is $74.5m, so an adjustment is just a matter of time). And we're not talking about a guy who still has question marks or is under development. This is not Kyler Murray. By 2020, Mahomes had an MVP, a SB, and was easily the best young QB in the NFL. He was better and more accomplished than either of Jackson or Hurts is right now. Also, my assumption when he signed the contract was that, within a year or two, they'd restructure in a way that would pump up his cash; they have not. And both sides recently expressed that they don't have plans for renegotiations any time soon. And that's fine, if he's happy then I don't care. But again, extreme outlier here. Just don't want people to look at the yearly average and say 'Mahomes is only slightly behind these guys,' because there's more to the story. Spotrac makes it easy.

Unless they're paying him on the side, which would be a major violation of the CBA, it's not manipulating the cap. It's just a player agreeing to a smaller/more team friendly contract than most other players at his position, and that's not against the rules.

He's getting a lot less. Mahomes signed his contract prior to the 2020 season, and through the 2023 season, he will have been paid $106m, per Spotrac. And that includes $2.5m in bonuses in 2022, for MVP and AFCCG. Average of $26.5m paid per season. Lamar's signing bonus is $72.5m, and his base salary in 2023 is $7.5, so he's making $80m in Year 1 of his deal, $25m more than Mahomes will make through the first four years of his contract. His first four years, he's scheduled to make $208m, and it's effectively guaranteed. Average of $52m paid per season. Hurts' signing bonus is $23.3m, but he has effectively guaranteed option bonuses in each of the next three seasons, for a total of $129.5m. Plus his signing bonus and salaries, he'll be over $157m in the first four years of his contract. Average of $39.25m paid per season. So through the first four years, Jackson is making double what Mahomes has made, and Hurts is making about 150%, in total cash. The difference in their yearly salaries is only about 15%, so this is not just about the market moving. It's about the incredibly team friendly structure of Mahomes' contract. Hurts' contract is team friendly, and it's not touching Mahomes' deal. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/lamar-jackson-25127/ https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/jalen-hurts-47648/

Yeah, just watched it. He looks incredible.

That's a beautiful sight.