Nickster
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Posts posted by Nickster
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Just now, Jackie Daytona said:
Other than injuries, I give Kelly a pass for about 50% of the bad play the last two seasons..... so I probably only expected 75% of Kellys total potential..... That said, we got closer to 50%
I agree but I think the accumulated injuries are a major part of the equation don't you?
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Just now, crazycolt1 said:
It is that hard to find quality Oline men.
Well man 23 teams have Cs that had a better Pff score than Kelly last year, and 28 had a better pff C the year before.
I don't think PFF is everything, but it is at least an indicator of trends.
I disagree that it his that hard to find a center at 64 pff for 12 million. -
6 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
Easier said than done. Finding top quality offensive linemen is a problem for every GM.
That is true but it shouldn't be too hard to find a C that plays up to a 55 pff level in 21 which is not starter material, and 64 in 22 which is marginal starter material at a salary of 12 mill a year which is elite.
Kelly has not been a very good football player for at least 2 years but gets paid like and All Pro.
That is not good for the Colts organization. -
2 hours ago, Superman said:
Pretty much guaranteed those are RPOs. QB has to be decisive.
Pretty much have to be. Otherwise some fat guy just lost his mind and ran down the field for no reason.
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8 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:
I totally agree. I was listening to an ex front office guy and he basically stated that there is a shortage of good Oline men. That is totally reflective in salaries for guards and how salaries have gone thru thr roof. Not a premium position but shortage of good players. It is the exact opposite of the rb postion. Lots of guys out there there to fill in and recent history has shown us this.
Simple unseen hand of supply and demand. Or in this case i guess the hand is visible lol.
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52 minutes ago, Superman said:
Agreed on the bolded, which is the main point. But I think we have weapons, so the potential is there. Pittman isn't a slouch, neither is Pierce, I really like Jelani Woods, and I think Downs and McKenzie are legit YAC guys, and Downs is looking like a nice route runner. But we still have the question about the QB...
Yep. I question every QB draftee. Most of them fail even when selected with high picks.
On one hand I can't believe this kid got drafted that high with his lack of actual success on the field and obvious accuracy issues, but OTOH, if he sucks we will suck and will get another shot in a couple years. From that perspective, it isn't unreasonable to purchase the AR lottery ticket this year with the rare physical gifts and the RPO/Zone Read offense we will try to run. -
10 minutes ago, Superman said:
I still personally view both situations differently than JT's situation now.
Oh I do too, but I can see why JT feels like he's being treated unfairly if that is how he feels when looking at these deals. The language used with his thing is starkly different than the last couple years. I don't think JT is being treated unfairly, as a matter of fact, I barely even acknowledge the concept of fairness as a legitimate paradigm in most situations, especially speculative futures' contracts which is what every NFL contract is.
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25 minutes ago, Superman said:
Leonard had missed a couple games here and there, but when he got his new deal he wasn't a serious injury risk. Nelson had his injury stuff start popping up in 2021, but he was four time All Pro and generally considered a top ten OL. And he hasn't missed a game since then, even though he probably hasn't been at 100%. At the time of their contracts, I see them both differently than a RB who had a lingering ankle injury and still isn't medically cleared more than 7 months after surgery.
I disagree with this and I said as much back when the negotiations were taking place. I thought and still think that he was to light at the time to absorb the type of punishment that run stopping LBs must endure. I don't know if size has anything to do with this current issue but I do think playing at 218 isn't a recipe for longevity for a ILB type making 150 tackles a year.
There's more to injury than missed games too. I am guessing Nelson's dramatically diminished play is back related, and expressed concerns when the contract was being considered.
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21 minutes ago, Superman said:
Leonard had missed a couple games here and there, but when he got his new deal he wasn't a serious injury risk. Nelson had his injury stuff start popping up in 2021, but he was four time All Pro and generally considered a top ten OL. And he hasn't missed a game since then, even though he probably hasn't been at 100%. At the time of their contracts, I see them both differently than a RB who had a lingering ankle injury and still isn't medically cleared more than 7 months after surgery.
And then there's the positional value, especially since our offense will be drastically different than it was when we drafted JT. But if the Colts were expecting to churn and burn at RB, they probably would have drafted someone this year. I don't think Evan Hull qualifies...
I understand if he feels he's deserving of a new contract and is being treated differently solely because he's a RB. But I think the Colts have taken a reasonable stance on this one, particularly because JT still isn't recovered from the ankle.
I agree with the rest, though. The two sides are at an impasse because until this standoff, JT has done everything he's been asked to do and is a standout producer, but the Colts aren't going to commit big money to him when he's still rehabbing his ankle. I don't blame either side, but JT is coming up short and I understand his frustration. (I do think JT has misplayed his hand, but that's another story.)
Oh I see it somewhat differently than JT does too. BUT. I do understand him if he thinks it's hypocritical because it appears to be.
I'm not for signing him for multiple reasons to a long term big money deal.
But the org playing hardball with him is probably offensive to him saying they don't need to revisit signed contracts or whatever they said to that effect when they had done it repeatedly during JTs time with the team.
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39 minutes ago, Superman said:
Our QBing since then has not been good. And our WR corps in 2020 was pretty bad, not a great fit for Rivers. Hilton got hurt, Pittman was a rookie and got hurt, etc.
I know you've defended Wentz in the past, but I'm sure you'd agree he's not exactly a technician... There's just been such a reduced standard since Luck retired, and we haven't even met that standard most of the time. And now we have a raw project who might not ever be technically refined, especially in short area stuff.
As it pertains to what you said earlier, I think the biggest reason we haven't taken advantage of all the size we have among our pass catchers is because we haven't had good QBing. But I do agree, just having big guys in the red zone doesn't automatically equal TDs. They have to be good at making plays.
I didn't want Wentz from the beginning and was not sad he was gone. Most of the Wentz apologetics was from my perspective that he was scapegoated for an org that was vastly overrated from a talent perspective. I never loved Wentz but he's thrown 33 TDs in a season and 27 twice. He had Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery who both have been good RZ targets in the 33 TD year. These guys were both pretty solid RZ guys.
But Wentz was 9th in QBR that year and Rivers was a stud too, so I don't agree that we've had bad QBing on its face. JB sucked and so did MR.
I think that our Oline doing it's impression of a colander is as much if not more a factor in this deficiency as anything. But like you, I still don't think that being big necessarily equates to a good RZ target. I think the receivers are also a factor.
But this all to say what I said in the original post, and that is for this year, I don't expect to be good in the RZ with a rookie QB, a line that is unproven as a protection unit, and a receiving corps that has never had receiver catch more than 6 TDs in a season.
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4 minutes ago, Superman said:
The theory is sound. Last time we had a good QB paired with a good, big target, Ebron was 2nd in the league in TD catches. When we had Rivers, our leading pass catcher was Nyheim Hines.
What's been missing since then is the combination of a good QB and a good, big target.
Yes Ebron was our last successful RZ target. I was going to mention that in the post.
We haven't had anyone show very many glimpses of being a solid, consistent RZ target that I can think of. There are many possible reasons for this, but I haven't seen much evidence of us being a good RZ passing team since Ebron and Luck.
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I don't believe that the Colts or any org should pay any RB that isn't excellent in pass pro and route running any type of big money long term contract.
That said. I understand JT's frustration. He was the best player on the team in 2021 hands down and helped make what is IMO a weaker type of roster playoff relevant for a couple months in the middle of the season.
Plus he watched two oft injured teammates in Leonard and Nelson get mega market busting contracts the YEAR BEFORE their deals were done. This I would suspect is part of why JT is so miffed and I understand why. It makes sense and is reasonable.
That said. He has no leverage and will either eat with us, get traded for peanuts and less than tag level salary, or starve. In which case his contract will still loom over him.
I understand the frustration of NFL players on some level to.
People talk about honoring the contract he signed. Rookie 2nd rounders have almost no room to negotiate. The salary levels are predetermined. So to say he should honor his contract as some sort of moral imperative is pretty much absurd to me.
The only way a kid on a rookie can create leverage is by doing something like what he's doing. Hold outs have been happening since Curt Flood in 1969 and even before actually.
JT has no leverage but I understand why he'd have such a beef. The messages of the FO (namely Irsay) are hypocritical because they've often signed other players in non premium positions to huge contracts before the contracts were up.
The bottom line is that there isn't a market for his services at the pay level he believes he's worth. This isn't an ethical or moral question IMO. The Colts seem to be screwing him in the context of the Smith, Leonard, and Shaq deals.
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3 hours ago, AKB said:
i agree with everything except the redzone.
I think we can be a very good RZ team with all the big targets we have. question is can we move the dline in those crowded situaitons
Well we’ve had big targets for several years now. Doesn’t appear our big targets are particularly good at catching TDs. At least there’s been little evidence of it so far.
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22 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:
Hi folks! I am home from Colts camp!
Actually, I agree with Stephen Holder. I was there. Yes, Richardson did make a lot of underneath completions, but there were very few "WOW" plays. It looked like he was having to go to his 2nd and 3rd read a lot. And was pressured a lot. And took off running a lot. Now that I read that both Kelly and Fries weren't in there, it's no wonder. No, I don't think Richardson looked bad, I just think he didn't look great.
My biggest takeaway from watching camp today was Josh Downs. This guys is seriously electric. He's always open. He catches anything thrown anywhere near him. He's going to give Richardson a serious run for his money on team rookie of the year.
During full team drills, we never put it in the end zone. (Or, at least it felt like we never did!) It was a lot of scrambles and a lot of check downs.
I guess I'm gonna blame it on the missing pieces from the OL. But I'm sure there's more blame to go around, and I'm just not smart enough to know the difference.
Sounds reasonable.
I’m glad we finally broke down and brought in a couple of shifty little route runners. We’ve needed them for years. Haven’t had any for a long time.
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3 hours ago, Solid84 said:
He may struggle a little with the over the middle stuff, but DAMN can he ever place those deep shots...
It’s really weird. At the combine he throws those lovely deep balls and is in accurate with most other throws. He seems to that in camp too.
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11 minutes ago, Superman said:
Bruh
You added the holder quote Supe? Withdrawing my laugh.
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Just now, Superman said:
Bruh
I guess I shouldn’t laugh because it could be something serious, but dang that’s smells pescatarian lol.
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On 8/15/2023 at 9:40 AM, Jackie Daytona said:
He's definitely more physically talented, that's measurable after all.. not that Luck wasn't gifted... the grooming for the position and supposed eidetic memory are the differences there.....
This is debatable IMO.
Luck had off the charts agility scores and AR didn’t do agility drills.
Check this out
“The cone drill, or "L drill" as it is sometimes called, is supposed to be a receiver's specialty. However, only three wide receivers outperformed Andrew Luck's performance of 6.80 seconds. Only two tailbacks and one tight end also managed to beat the time.
To put things in a different perspective, you can look at Luck's results within a historical context at his position.”
Lucks agility was astounding for anyone of any size but at his size it is otherworldly.
there is a smart reason why AR didn’t do agilities. I’m inclined to believe it was because it wouldn’t be particularly impressive.
personally I’d sacrifice some straight line speed for agility.
Not saying AR isn’t an obviously astounding athlete. But I wonder what his RAS would be if he did the abilities. My guess is not a 10. Lucks was 9.79 with abilities and hands that aren’t impressive in size.
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8 hours ago, Chucklez said:
This could well be true. JT just needs to realise that isnt what the RB market is.... whether that is fair or not isnt really the point (personally i think RBs are being completely screwed over, but thats also besides the point).
He is worth whatever people are willing to pay him. I could go tell my boss i think I'm worth double my salary as well, doesnt mean i'll get it. He is sour and upset, and i get it, he will just need to realise he isnt going to get what he wants, the only question remaining is have all of the bridges between him and the colts been burnt in the process of that? If they have, thats a massive shame, and it will be his own fault for handling this so poorly.Boo yah on the bolded. I don’t think anyone’s getting screwed personally. TEs and Gs used to get “screwed” and now their piece of the pie is larger. With a cap some positions get more and some get less. It’s determined by the market which consists of 32 Front Offices. The “fairness” debate is irrelevant IMO.
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15 minutes ago, AKB said:
yeah, i think we see a lot of read action.
one of the things i noticed was the defense was kinda of pausing at the snap of each play, or a tleast a few players were to check for the read option
It will be interesting to see how defenses adjust to zone read/RPO with it being run more.
It’s working pretty well for a handful of squad right now.
One thing to keep in mind about preseason is Ds don’t show much and they don’t prep for opponents all week like they do in the regular season. You obviously have to honor the ability of guys like AR to pull the ball and get around the end, and Buffs edge guys did look somewhat slow on the read/reacts though.
The oline had some positive signs in Q1 though. If they are decent even this season Ie. Middle of the pack or so, we are going to get some chunky runs and move the ball well at least between the 20s. What we do from the RZ is a different animal. I don’t expect us to be very good there for at least a while.
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1 hour ago, AKB said:
I hope people keep their expectations tempered. One of the youngest QBs to start ever, he's gonna be the youngest starter at QB this season.
Took Jackson a couple of seasons to figure it out, also took Hurts a few years.
Are we all gonna freak out when he comes in with 55% accuracy and 1-1 TD int ratio?
I won't freak out personally. I think everyone including SS would be surprised if AR performs at a level for this team to be competitive this season. On his performance Saturday, it didn't move the needle for me. I liked his poise on film from college. He didn't panic, but also often made wrong decisions. But he looked calm. That could be huge. The accuracy issue was on full display Saturday. That's the main thing for me. If we don't see accuracy improving by later this year, I am gonna be concerned.
I just hope we are not using him up. If SS isn't planning on running this guy 150 times, then I am really baffled by the pick. Hurts rand 160+ and Fields was similar but neither of those guys started right away.
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9 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:
For what it’s worth…. This story is dated April 24, the night of the draft. It’s not based on anything since.
He’s calling AR Trey Lance 2.0. Maybe he’s right, maybe not. Obviously we’re all hoping Ballard and the scouts and Steichen and his staff plus other analysts who see something special are right.
trey Lance hasn’t had a chance yet so I’m not sure if that would be bad or not. -
10 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:
Im all on board and love the pick. It will be interesting to look back in 2 years or so and see who was right.
https://firstroundmock.com/2023/04/anthony-richardson-is-a-bust-according-to-former-nfl-scout/
I have no idea how he will pan out but that goes for all QB draftees including the highest of picks. Most QBs fail and flail so my wager would be on AR not being great if I had to bet simply because it’s the statistically most probable outcome .if AR put up numbers like he has with a 2 or 3 year college career I’d be wondering about the sanity of management. But he hasn’t played 3 years he’s played 1, so the room for improvement there is astronomical with his unprecedented complete set of physical talents.
I am hopeful for AR, but he seems to have a longer row to hoe than almost any highly drafted QB I can recall.
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15 hours ago, CoachLite said:6 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:
I don’t think the agent is leading Taylor. I think he’s speaking for Taylor and Taylor is leading himself right now. To Irsay’s credit he doesn’t seem to be taking this personally and I really believe he wants Taylor out there for the Colts this year and if he performs well will offer him a fair contract to keep him. It’s just not happening on the timeline Taylor wants and it probably won’t be for the amount he wants.
. The natural tendency is to overestimate its (your) worth in a competitive marketplace, but that gets established by whatever someone is willing to pay (or overpay). Examples: the stock market and the real estate market. If you over-estimate your worth, you can lose a fortune and your reputation. If you underestimate, you leave money on the table. That's life.
I totally agree. I don’t think JT is being led around by the nose.People are putting all kinds of different possible outcomes here. But the bottom line is Jim Irsay trades him, or JI pays him more, or he eats here, or he starves and adds a year until FA.
My guess is he will eat here but Jimmys a bit erratic so you never know with that guy.
I think he will fulfill his do
Total rebuild narrative
in Colts Football
Posted
Yes definitely man. Absolutely. He seems pretty washed.