BlueShoe
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Posts posted by BlueShoe
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13 hours ago, Hoose said:
I've wondered about the second round pick being traded, but honestly, it won't get the Colts all that much. Maybe a slight move down gets you a late 3rd or early 4th? But then, you could miss out on the top talent remaining. After the mid 2nd round, it gets to be a crap shoot. Unless the offer is strong, hold your ground and grab talent. That is what the Colts need.....talented players at positions of serious need. LB; RB; O-line. The only place to make a truly meaningful trade is in the 1st round, and it has to be a strong offer. Otherwise, give me Chubb and a solid O-lineman in the second round, and I'll be happy.
I would take the 6th overall and 2 seconds just about every draft year over the 3rd overall.
Having a Nelson in this draft makes it an even. easier choice.
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On 2/2/2018 at 9:24 AM, BProland85 said:
If Ballard were to pass on say the Jets two #2 picks in addition to their 6th overall pick, I think that would be a big mistake. I have no doubt that either Chubb or Nelson will be there at 6 overall and both players would serve major needs for the Colts and give them an elite player to build around. QBs and Barkley will go in the top 5 picks.
Exactly the way I see it too.
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5 minutes ago, BProland85 said:
But they were also picking 15th. That’s a huge difference from the level of a 3rd overall prospect.
They had Derek highly ranked.
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1 minute ago, BProland85 said:
If Chubb compares to a slightly faster version of Barnett, then I want no part of him in the top 8 or so picks.
If he compares to a faster version of Joey Bosa which I’ve also heard, them sign me up.
The Colts had Derek ranked very high on the big board last year.
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32 minutes ago, BProland85 said:
Is Harold Landry being looked at as a mid 1st round guy or late 1st/early 2nd? I’ve seen him projected at both honestly and if Ballard chooses to go the Quenton Nelson route round 1 I’d love having Landry in the 2nd.
Right now I see him going anywhere from 15 to 40. He is a little undersized, and I think his size could make some teams wait to take him a bit later. He has the talent though.
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27 minutes ago, Superman said:
I'd be shocked if Chubb runs a 4.7 40. I see him having similar workout numbers to Derek Barnett, with maybe a better vertical and broad jump.
I actually compare him to Derek Barnett, only about a step faster.
Derek bent a lot better than I thought he would last year though. I think you and I even discussed it at the time.
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16 minutes ago, dgambill said:
I don’t think I could pass on Chubb or Barkley without a future first rd pick in any scenerio. It’s a lot to request but that is where I draw the line. I can’t give up a player I feel can be a real franchise difference maker without some heavy capital for next year. I love Nelson as a player...but I don’t think he is a game changer. Guards don’t block the opposing teams best player and it isn’t a position I don’t think I can’t find later in the draft or by converting a tackle. If he would have been there last year at 15 that’s one thing...but at 6...if that is the best player on the board for us I’m pretty disappointed. To miss out on a Fitzpatrick or Chubb or Barkley....personally I just can’t do that without more in return. Certainly it’s plausible it could turn out that way.
That’s where different philosophies come in. Some GMs might see it your way and some will see it my way.
Personally, I don’t put much weight in positional value as far as where to draft players. If the player is the BPA and fits a need then I am pulling the trigger. I think Nelson is a top 5 player in this entire draft. I think he improves our team on Day 1. So I would draft him at #6 in a heartbeat.
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I get fascinated by a simple formula. I believe that Bill Polian lived by a formula similar to this. It's called the Explosive Edge Rushers formula and it's simple but very effective in predicting the next great pass rushers. Only 42 Edge Rushers since 1999 have made this list, and most of them have gone on to have exceptional NFL careers. Who's going to bend this year?
I am predicting that Harold Landry will make the list for 2018. It would kind of be surprising if he doesn't make it. I will also predict that Ogbonnia Okoronkwo makes the list as well. Keep an eye on him because he is a sleeper. Joe Ostman is my sleeper this year, and I think he has a good chance to make the list. Arden Key might be able to pull it off. Chad Thomas is another who could make the list. I think Bradley Chubb has an outside chance and if he does then it will be an impressive accomplishment, because he is a bigger guy.
Just about every year, we see would-be late round picks move up and get drafted higher, because they make this list.
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2 hours ago, dgambill said:
It's a scenario that COULD play out...but if I'm moving back I want a future first rd pick for doing it. If I'm giving up the player I covet (Chubb, Barkley, etc etc) whomever that guy is I'm getting a premium for giving up the highest non-qb on the board. I would move back for 6, 37, and future first. If I thought I could get my highest rated player on the board then I just draft them....I don't move back....and if I'm moving back I'm getting a future first so I have ammo next year to do something special. So...would the Jets do that...probably not just to move up a couple spots...or...they could start sweating...and maybe they give in. Either way then I'm happy....but I'm not happy if I move back to 6 and miss my guy just for a couple second round picks. Just my opinion and probably not shared by everyone. If I want to move up and get someone in the second then I have can use my 3rd rd plus to do it. I like Nelson but in that scenario I wouldn't be happy. If I am moving out of the top 10 then I would be thrilled to land Nelson....but then again we are DEFINATELY talking a future 1st.
I think the idea would be for Chris Ballard to have 3 players he would be okay with.
I think in this scenario those players would be Barkley, Chubb, and Nelson. If that is his stance then I totally agree with it. I am 100% okay with us taking Nelson at #6 overall.
That is the key in these types of situations. Ballard would need 3 players on the board, that he is okay with taking at No. 6 overall.
Don't rule out Davenport there either.
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Just now, tvturner said:
I still don't think he's top 10 talent. Others deserve it more. and I know reliable sources
Reliable sources? LOL
Who? If you cannot name them then they are not a reliable source for your opinion.
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1 minute ago, dgambill said:
Thanks...I must have missed that back then....probably excited we didn't draft a RB lol!!!! Still interesting they would release that.
I think it was an accident. It was in the background of another picture.
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4 minutes ago, dgambill said:
Yeah...I assumed we had a really good grade on Hooker...the only reason we would take a FS that high in my opinion. I was a little more skeptical because of the position and the limited time and production at OSU....but Hooker definitely had a knack for finding the ball. Where did you get the draft card evaluation in the picture? I've never seen that before...I would think that would be highly confidential.
Just wanted to answer the first part of your post real quick. I can touch on the rest later.
That picture was posted on the Indianapolis Colts website immediately following the draft.
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15 minutes ago, dgambill said:
I think he likes to plug holes thru FA....so that he can simply go after the most talented player no matter the position in the draft. Do I think FS was our #1 concern last offseason...nope....do I even like to take a FS in the top 15 of the draft...nope....and I think a lot of GMs are similar in that regard....but I think he saw Hookers value was so high he wasn't going to pass on that kind of talent just because it was a high value position. Look at how KC has operated in the past several years. They've had times where they've had a glut of DT and they still go out and get another in the draft. Same with OLB. I think when they see the there is a player clearly highly rated that they just say let's go get him and then we will plan the team around them after the fact...even if that means moving a good player later or not re-signing one like Poe.
We drafted a FS at No. 15 overall last year, because he was our 4th ranked player in the entire NFL draft and we had a 96 grade on him.
http://footballdungeon.com/news/day-1-grades/
Chris Ballard has said he will use free agency to temporarily patch holes. He says he is a true believer in drafting well and keeping your own. This was also a Bill Polian belief. I want to see it in action.
When I say I am looking forward to seeing how he reacts, I want to see what he does in certain situations. It's a process to understand these GM's. It takes time (several off-seasons) to really understand their methodology. That's what I am looking forward to.
I had a really good understanding of Bill Polian, and I think I might get there with Chris Ballard as well.
Ryan Grigson thought a lot differently than Polian or Ballard (it would appear). Grigson was a home run swinger and measurables were everything to him. He often missed because he took the 4.39 guy over the 4.49 guy who could play the position better.
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13 minutes ago, tvturner said:
up and down senior bowl week
That's not a good reason.
He is small school kid coming to the Senior Bowl. His athleticism immediately popped.
Too many people expected Davenport to have his way with everyone. There was a huge learning curve. The players at the Senior Bowl are better than any he has ever faced before. They're craftier and understand football on a whole new level than he is used to.
The fact that he took his time to digest it all (looked slow in the process) and then ultimately overcame it (owned Day 3 and the game) should be a medal of honor on how he handles adversity. He didn't back down one bit and he got better as the week went along.
There is a certain group of websites out there that you have to take with a grain of salt. If that is where you are getting your information from then step back for a moment and think about this whole situation with an unbiased mind. Sometimes people have way too many knee jerk reactions, and many of them have a website to tell you about it.
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7 minutes ago, dgambill said:
If he does a good job in free agency...then there would be no reason not to take one. If you fill enough holes in FA then you don't need to draft by need....and can take the BPA. In my opinion if you have first rd grade on a guy in rd 2 then even if we have a starter there we could use the depth...and heck if they turn out to be pro bowl material then we find a place to play them or move the guy we had there. If things work out and we add a pass rusher and OL help in either/both first rd and FA then ILB is a position I am fine addressing at the top of RD2 if that guy is a day 1 contributor and can play in most packages.
I tend to somewhat agree with what you're saying. I think....
I think you missed where I was going with my comment though.
With Chris Ballard being so new in his position, it will be interesting to watch his decision making. They (GM's) are all different from one another, which is why we don't have 32 identical big boards. They see things differently. They take different chances. I am looking forward to another draft with Ballard, so I can peek behind the curtain a little more.
Not that I believe taking an off-ball linebacker is a gamble. I think teams should take the best player that somewhat aligns with a need. Keep in mind, I am sure that I see a NEED differently than most others on this board. I believe a position is a NEED if you may lose a key player at that position the following year.
If I were a GM then I would definitely be one to draft ahead.
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6 minutes ago, tvturner said:
Davenport isn't worth a top 10 pick
I Strongly disagree!
And so do a lot of other people.
In fact, I just noticed that 2 out of the 3 NFL.com mocks have him going at #7 to the Buccaneers.
It makes a ton of sense too.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/mock-drafts
What are you basing your beliefs of "Davenport isn't worth a top 10 pick" on?
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23 minutes ago, dgambill said:
I agree with positional value approach @NewColtsFan and I also agree that this might be a particularly strong LB class like @BlueShoe says and typically I'm not one to take an ILB high in the draft but I always leave room for exceptions. Depending on how that person grades out (say they have Ray Lewis quality) and say is a 3 down backer won't leave the field then of course I take that star if they are available. I would say if we have a day 1 grade on an ILB and they are still there day 2....we should really access that player closely. I would rather wait til later but we could use a special player in the middle of this defense...and I've got no problem investing a later pick on first round talent.
I think we could find ourselves in that situation (bolded). It will be interesting to see how Chris Ballard reacts to it.
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40 minutes ago, Str8himalaya said:
I have started to look at the ILB prospects in the draft and this guy has me intrigued. He's 6'5" and 240-250lbs. Supposedly he will run a very good 40 time (4.5-4.6) and his tape is pretty decent. With our need at LB he could be a great piece to add to the mix. After it's all said and done, I bet he's a top 15-20 prospect. I would not be completely opposed to trading down for a really good deal into the teens and drafting this guy. He has a lot of tools, has good range, and plays pretty well chasing or straight up against blocking in his face. One area of concern (from my perspective) is he tends to guess against option offenses and that is big time boom or bust. Thoughts?
I think he could come off the board to the Raiders. He is a physical freak and the Raiders still to this day, like to draft those rare traits of combined physicality and speed. The Raiders have a need inside and he fits the bill perfectly for them. Probably in 9 out of 10 of my mocks, I will have Tremaine Edmunds going to the Raiders at #9 or #10 (whatever the coin flip tells us).
I think Davenport is also on the Raiders radar, so it might depend on Davenport still being on the board when the Raiders pick.
Miami is a possibility.
Cincinnati should take an offensive tackle, but they could take him.
Washington could be in play. They have a quarterback now.
The Chargers at #17 is another good fit, Although, I think Roquan Smith fits the needs of Gus Bradley's defense a little better.
He would have to slide past 5 teams with a need, and also get skipped on the BPA to make it past No. 17 overall.
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33 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:
Clearly trades with Bills Cardinals Broncos Jets have been discussed in the past but what about the Bucs?
They desperately need a Pass Rusher and wouldn't be surprised to see them trade up for Chubb.
Would you consider a trade down to 7?
Not sure what the Colts would get in return though.
Honestly, I don't think Tampa would pay the surcharge. They would have to outbid the quarterback needy teams.
If they really want an EDGE rusher then they would be better off staying at home and taking Davenport at #7. It's my opinion and I could be wrong.
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On 1/29/2018 at 12:09 PM, krunk said:
Darius Leonard - LB SC State
No linebacker did more to increase the value of his stock during Senior Bowl week than Darius Leonard. He is a 6’3”, 235 lbs rangy inside linebacker prospect with speed to cover to the sidelines. He showed enough natural ability and nastiness during the Senior Bowl to have a nice foundation and has enough space to grow in his body to be fine-tuned for the NFL game.
Darius Leonard from @SCStateAthletic comes from Mike to make the play on Ito Smith. Thumped him. #SeniorBowl pic.twitter.com/LISiP7CRgR
— Brad Kelly (@BradKelly17) January 24, 2018He led all tacklers in the Senior Bowl with 14 tackles and earned Most Valuable Player honors on defense. for the South. He has been compared to Jaguars linebacker Telvin Smith — just the type of linebacker the Colts have been sorely lacking.
Seems like he was very active in the Senior Bowl. Haven't done a whole lot of study except some stuff here and there in the past, but
he did seem like somebody to keep an eye on. Obviously he's not a target for our first round pick but beyond that I think defnitely one
to keep on the radar.
Not bad for a guy Clemson didn't want, eh?
At first I saw him as a WILL, but as this process moves along, I think he is making a case to stay at MIKE. I am looking forward to seeing more from him at the combine.
Right now, I have him as a late first or Day 2 prospect. He is certainly one to keep an eye on though.
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1 hour ago, Surge89 said:
Ah I understand now.
Just an FYI Jefferson was a 4.38-9 guy at recruitment. Just recently he had drills with Barkley and had no issue keeping up with him in terms of speed. He is often referred to as one of the most athletic and fastest linebackers in the country. I just don't think speed will be an issue.
They moved him all over the place mainly because Bedford in Texas was a terrible DC. Jefferson wasn't the only one who was moved around everyone in that defense never learned a position because they wanted everyone to be jacks of all trades. In 2016-2017 there was a coaching change... In 2017 Orlando started to put guys in spots where they could actually learn and play. Look at Elliot. If he had been given a chance to play safety his entire career in Texas he might be in the same breath as Thomas coming into this draft.
I do agree Malik lacks instincts but I don't agree that he lacks anticipation. He reads average and and hits holes well the issue is it seems his football IQ is a tad low (most likely due to a terrible DC who didn't understand the game himself and trying to play 4 or 5 positions in his first 2 years). Also I believe he sets the edge well but does not have bend.
I agree with your final assessment that his spot is WILL. He isn't ever going to be an elite pass rusher but he can be a great gap and coverage linebacker. Jefferson to me is a more potential pick and doesn't deserve a first round grade but I'd give him a 2nd no question purely based on how much he improved this past year when given structure.
It's of my opinion he should have stayed in Texas one more year.
He was highly recruited out of high school. There was a lot of buzz surrounding him.
If he runs fast at the combine then there is something to work with. He plays very slow though. #45 Wheeler even looks faster than Malik.
If Malik runs a sub 4.4 at the combine then he must really be thinking a lot on the field. Maybe an injury holding him back. Maybe the fear of another concussion. Something is causing him to play slow.
Maybe trying to process all the different positions is slowing him down. It would make the most sense. He needs to run well at the combine. If he does then the mental stuff can be overcome.
I re-watched his K-State game last night, and Malik does not play fast. There was 1 play where he turned on the speed, and the announcers liked it (3:32).
http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/10/16/malik-jefferson-vs-kansas-state-2017/
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9 hours ago, Clem-Dog said:
Thanks for explaining the breakdown. In this scenario if Rosen is available and the Jets feel he is an elite franchise QB then I don't think a late- 2nd surcharge is quite enough. At the very least Ballard should attempt to squeeze another 2019 2nd out of them, which is equivalent to a 3rd this upcoming draft (275 pts range ?).
It's always possible. We have seen it happen before.
However, I think the Jets will also realize that we do not want to fall too far in the draft order, In the end, they will know we want to deal with them. I think the extra second round pick that's built-in to the mock trade makes sense. Though, it would not surprise me if we got a little more.
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10 hours ago, Surge89 said:
This is interesting for you to say regarding Jefferson. Care to explain why? In 2016 Jefferson was terrible and seemed to be regressing in a bad defense. In 2017 Orlando came to Texas and every defensive player all of a sudden started looking like their recruited status. Jefferson was definitely improved in 2017 and I have him in my top 5 linebackers.
For you to say the exact opposite of what I witnessed is very intriguing as you always tend to have an informed opinion so looking for some perspective.
Truth is, I think Malik Jefferson is slow. I think he needs to run well at the combine or he is going to fall. I currently have him ranked at #55. Some of my ranking is because I think he is going to run slow at the combine.
Texas moved him all over the place. In 2015 and 2016, I thought they were moving him around because they expected him to grow into a great player, and they wanted to expose him to a lot of things. However, I think in 2016 and 2017 the Longhorns coaches realized Malik didn't excel at any position.
Malik lacks anticipation and instincts to play MIKE in the NFL. He doesn't have any pass rush skills off the edge. He is not strong enough to bull rush off the edge. Doesn't set the edge well.
He does tackle very well. I think there is some athletic ability to work with, but it's going to take time to teach him 1 position. Moving him around all over the place is not helping him. He has to run well at the combine for any of it to matter.
I think he is a 43 WILL or a 34 WILL in the NFL, but he doesn't appear to have the instincts or the speed to be great. I think a team could coach him up and make him decent, as long as the speed isn't sub-par.
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9 hours ago, BleedBlu8792 said:
- This would be a strong 2nd draft for Ballard. Nelson is a no brainer.
- As a Buckeye guy, I love the Hubbard pick, and he reminds me a lot of Simon when he came out. He's an under the radar, low-hype guy, who loves football. The kid always made plays at the right times it seemed. His stats could have been better, but I doubt there was a better DE rotation/depth in the country than Ohio State's.
- I hope Jefferson lasts that long, but I could see Crosby and Jefferson swapping spots in draft order.
- Hamilton and Lazard could shake up the WR spots from day 1.
- Worley could end up being a huge steal at 195. He has similar athleticism to Shazier and Darron Lee. He played all 3 LB positions this year and I think would fit in perfect at the WILL spot should we move to a 4-3. He might have to wait a year, but he should be a good contributor on ST's to start.
I'm assuming with no DB's on the list, you're anticipating Melvin and Desir back? Or additions through FA?
I had Malik Jefferson in my top 20 in April of 2017. I thought he would have a great 2017 and really stake a claim as one of the best players in college football. Unfortunately, he has dropped off quite a bit, but he could rise again. He has talent, but he often disappears in games. I can see him going anywhere from 20 to 60.
I have Tyrell Crosby as the 4th best offensive tackle in the draft, and Malik is the 7th best off-ball linebacker. If that holds true (IF) then there is no way Jefferson is coming off the board before Crosby. Jefferson could move up and Crosby could fall in the process though.
We drafted 2 corners last year, and I think they will both play a huge part moving forward. This draft has some nice corners, and we could draft another one. I think we will use free agency to hit a little on each position. Ballard is a fan of keeping our own, so as long as Melvin and Desir's contracts are reasonable then I see us bringing them back.
How does McDaniels win over the fan base?
in Colts Football
Posted
I don’t blindly trust anyone, especially from the bowels of the Patriots.
My eyes are wide open. I will be critical when it’s deserved, and I will give praise when it is deserved.
Josh McDaniels will not get a single free pass from me. I am sure that keeps him up late at night.