BlueShoe
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Posts posted by BlueShoe
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The Colts are absolutely improving.
The Colts are clearly a better team than the Jets.
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On 10/11/2018 at 8:40 PM, Myles said:
Yep, Steve Young was great.
My top 5:
Manning
Montana
Unitas
Marino
Brady
My top 5:
Manning
Marino
Unitas
Montana
Elway
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The video linked by the OP has been removed.
I think this is it:
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I’ve been paying attention to his career and was very surprised when we cut him. It didn’t make any sense then and it sure and the heck doesn’t now.
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12 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:
Most of those flags were legit. It’s a common problem for a young team learning to win. These are growing pains.
It’s frustrating to watch but that’s why they are called pains.
I am more concerned with the offensive game plan today. I didn’t like it one bit. Too many screens and trying to force it to the tightends over the middle.
Also the Colts had something like three dropped TDs today. Yes most would have been impressive catches but they were catchable nonthe less.
Any official can justify throwing a holding call on most plays, if the ref is on a witch-hunt to do so.
Which "dropped TD's" are you referring to?
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6 minutes ago, RollerColt said:
The NFL will continue to decline because of bad referees. We shouldn’t have to sit and wait to celebrate after every single great play because there might be a flag.
It’s ruining the game and the fun of it. The Clay Matthews penalty today was beyond ridiculous!
Here is the one from last week...
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There was game in Green Bay, I want to say 2007 or 08 that we got the screws put to us. This game trumps that.
I am not sure if I've ever seen anything like this, EVER in any sport or at any level.
Anyone feel free to go back and look at my historical posts. I rarely complain about officiating. I think for the most part every team gets some calls. The calls against the Colts and for the Eagles today were mind-boggling.
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ROBBED!
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This defense has played an AWESOME game and unless Andrew Luck can change this outcome then the refs have taken away a great performance from them.
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1 minute ago, Fisticuffs111 said:
Unpopular opinion but these calls are fine. I mean, we were lined up offsides.
1 call. Yes. That one we did.
We have been mugged in the end zone a few times, called for offensive pass interference.
The Eagles have been bailed out with phantom calls on 3rd down, several times.
This game has not been called the same for both teams.
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I would gladly congratulate the Eagles for a win, but not like this.
This is not football. This predetermined behavior.
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1 minute ago, HungarianColtsFan said:
we've kept them in game now...
The refs have kept them in the game!
This is a shameful performance by the officials.
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1 minute ago, lance_m8 said:
get off the field!!
The refs are not having any of that.
I have not seen anything like this sham from officials in a long time.
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Every one of these refs should be fired!
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Philly won the toss and deferred.
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If anyone is curious for the Evansville area then the game is on 107.5.
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17 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:
I think your comment of middle of the pack is a VERY fair assessment
Still need some stars to make a run and compete for a SB
I think the Jags and the Pats are going to drop from their positions as the top 2 teams over next offseason
Slow and steady seems like the best approach
Still would like us to consider 1-2 FAs next year, to fill big holes, (Tackle, S)but dont want 3-6 FAs either
We have a great future
We may win or we may lose today.......... I will STILL be wearing my Blue Jersey...... either way
I agree.
I think when we look at modern NFL history, teams that build through the draft tend to have a lot more success than teams that focus on free agency. I think the recipe for success in the NFL is heavily skewed towards having more players on the roster who were drafted by the team. They are home-grown, so-to-speak.
Ryan Grigson believed in bringing in free agents while Chris Ballard has a vision to build through the draft.
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I think we will see these numbers grow as Chris Ballard inserts his presence into this team.
The Colts currently have 24 players on the 53-man roster who were drafted by the Colts and 13 players who were drafted by another team. 16 players on the Colts roster were at one time undrafted free agents.
The Bengals lead the NFL with 39 players who were drafted by the Bengals and still on the 53-man roster.
The Bills are the worst in the NFL with only 14 players who were drafted by the Bills and still on the 53-man roster.
If you find this kind of data interesting then here is the link:
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1 hour ago, Coffeedrinker said:
Sounds like an interesting formula. Do you care to share or is it something you want to keep private?
There is a lot to it, and I tweak it from time to time.
Offensive YPP and Defensive YPP is important. Coaches are always talking about the importance of chunk plays and I think they look at YPP on both sides as being very important.
NFL.com just started releasing blocking stats and I use that vs ESPNs new defensive stats which include quarterback hits and tackles for loss. I think this can tell a bigger story than sacks. A sack can be a flash play where a player went unblocked on just one play. However when a team has 9.5 tackles for loss like Jacksonville did once this year then in my mind, that tells a story about dominant a defense (especially if they do this at a high rate).
The stats I use come from NFL.com and ESPN. I hook into their team tables to get most of the team data.
I don’t completely buy into a team getting more turnovers. Obviously a team forcing more turnovers is likely to win the game, but it is too sporadic to predict. I see turnovers as more of a hindsight way of looking at a game rather than a predictable stat. That said, I do give the stat some weight because some teams are just good at forcing turnovers while others are not.
Obviously the wins and losses have some weight and so does the strength of schedule.
Yards per game has some weight too, but this can easily be skewed by garbage yards.
Points also play a role, but again can be easily skewed by garbage points.
Aikman is using a lot of the same stats that I am. We don’t weigh everything the same though.
I think YPP, OL stats, and DL stats tell a story that helps to make games somewhat predictable.
Also, Aikman's efficiency stats inspired me to come up with my own system as it sounds like he did for you too.
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3 minutes ago, DougDew said:
Its how all statistical models work. So, yes, as long as his rating system falls into the category of "statistical based", it has a human judgement component to it.
The system could be totally human judgment. And could be much better than any algorithm.
He's got a small pool of players to work with, so the data for the stats will be imperfect, increasing the likehood he needs human input to make the ratings make sense.
Its not like its an insurance company with statistical data used to compile behavioral patterns and tendencies to assign car insurance rates with millions of people as its universe. Even at that, those companies will make adjustments for how far you are from your work, where you live, etc. so the universe of data gets smaller. Then they bump your rates up for individual behavior, like speeding tickets or accidents. Every time you narrow the field, the increasing individuality and uniqueness of the data requires human judgement to make a decision.
Until we all become Google robots programmed with the same software and live exactly the same lives.
Well said!
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4 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:
Are there manual overrides in Aikmans system
If you use his data after only 2 weeks there will need to be.
Again, this was pointed out earlier in the thread.
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59 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:
If it's a true system to rank teams, why would you manually adjust it?
I have already answered that, but you didn’t read it.
There is not enough data after only a couple of weeks. After about a month or so the system becomes more accurate.
Its not perfect anyway. Just something that is right more often than it is wrong. And something I like to play around with.
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41 minutes ago, chad72 said:
I agree with the sentiment. For example, the Dolphins, not sure how much to make of their wins over the Titans and Jets except the fact that their defense played stout in both those games. Winning in the NFL is often decided by a few plays in close games and some teams/players make it and some do not.
Plus, there is the consistency factor. Chargers in 2010 were Top 10 in O and D but did not make the playoffs. They were very good last year too, did not make the playoffs. They just do not put together a consistent set of performances week in and week out even though statistically, they may have a high ceiling that shows up in enough games thus keeping their averages high.
I agree. Something else to keep an eye on is the Patriots.... They are not scoring well in my system, and I had to actually give them a manual override to bump them up. They beat the Texans by a touchdown and soundly lost to the Jaguars. The Jaguars are my systems number 1 ranked team, and it is very early so this could go either way for the Patriots. They play the Dolphins (2-0), then the Colts (we could easily be 2-0), and then the Chiefs (2-0).
This could be a bad start for the Patriots. I think they are feeling it too, which is why they are taking fliers on guys like Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon.
Colts @ New York Jets Game Day Thread
in Colts Game Day
Posted
Andrew Luck is on pace to set the single season record for pass attempts.