shasta519

I think it's being reported that he had DID bet on IND games. But we don't know the details. I don't know why he would have been betting on the Colts to win last year. They were a bad team. Maybe he was betting them to cover spreads. IF he bet against the Colts, this story could get so much worse. For now, all we know is he was involved. But that could change. I doubt the NFL or the Colts would allow that info to get out there though. Just too much money at stake, so somebody would have to leak it.

Just because there wasn't a big bet on whatever app doesn't mean there wasn't a big bet somewhere. But we do know there was betting of some kind. They are going to absolutely investigate if he was betting on games he was playing in and they should.

You are correct...it was a game-tying TD. That play was definitely not all on Rodgers. But his effort was questionable at best. But the rest of the secondary was brutal as well. Thomas just whiffs the head-on tackle and McLeod is jogging after Cook. Then watch the two-point conversion right after that. They (Rodgers, Franklin and McLeod) triple-team Jefferson on the right, which leaves Cook wide open in the flat. He would have walked in if Cousins had looked his way...the defenders didn't even react to him. In that game, the Colts defense went from an insane -1.046 EPA in the 1H to a +.285 EPA in the 2H. Some of that is driven by how teams play with big leads, but that type of variance is almost unbelievable.

Who knows. But I will say this. That 2H of that MIN game should at least raise some eyebrows now that we have this information. It was a historical comeback. Rodgers was pretty bad in that 2H, especially on the Cook and Thielen TDs. But it wasn't just him either. Gilmore only allowed 2 TDs last season...both in that 2H.

Yikes is right. (2:15 4Q): He was lined up against Cook on that game-winning TD. Just kind of hangs around and then eventually chases him down and misses the tackle. (5:30 4Q): The other TD was when Thielen was wide open. I don't know if it was him or Blackmon, but both missed their assignments. This game does look a bit sketchy on second view.

Um...his only missed tackle occurred in that MIN game. He also allowed 107 yards and 2 TDs (26.8 yds/catch) for a 119.6 passer rating. 75 of those 107 yards came on YAC. You better believe people are going back and looking at that film.

With Gilmore gone and Moore likely gone after this year, they needed CB depth anyways. But it's possible they knew this was coming. Don't know the details yet of when the investigation started.

He has the funniest descriptions.

I mean…there’s plenty going on here that goes beyond just AR’s ability to throw a football a long ways or run fast with it. But Hurts is actually accurate in the short-intermediate and needs to work on his accuracy deep. AR is sort of the opposite. Even still, it took Hurts til his 3rd NFL season to put it all together. I think immediate expectations should be tempered. But it’s not going to happen for a lot of the fanbase.

They would have to eat $24.8M in dead cap from his signing bonus to do it. But that money has to be accounted for anyways, whether it's all at once or over the next few years. The trading team would be taking $25M gtd in base salary with them and the Colts would be done with the deal. There's some value in that I guess...saving $25M. The problem is that Q is still a useful player, so even though they would save $25M, they would need to get back something decent in return. But how often do vet Gs get traded? The trading team would get Q for 2/$25M...and then have options for years 3 and 4. On the surface, that contract has value, but a team could have just signed Shaq Mason in FA at that AAV. Or paid less for a player like Seumolo. It's not tough to find good LGs in FA. So it would have to come down to the name recognition. I think a R1 pick is out of the question, but perhaps a R2 pick if some team really believed his recent play (especially last season) was an outlier and the medicals checked out. Given I am more pessimistic about Q than others, I would probably take it.

I hope so as well. But not sure I buy that it was coaching. Smith regressed a bit, but that is understandable, given he was playing next to Pinter and Fries last season. Kelly's regression had already started before last season. His 2021 season wasn't good either, despite the PB nod. This could just be his career being shortened by injuries. Pryor didn't really fall off a cliff. He wasn't good in PHI. And with the Colts, he only had 94 snaps at LT in 2021. If anything, Pryor is a cautionary tale for making decisions based off small samples. But mostly, I just don't think he was ever even a good player, so his regression wasn't exactly surprising nor could it be blamed on coaching. Same with Pinter. Another older OL prospect who in 3 years had not shown much outside of some solid play filling in at C for Kelly. But he had also never played RG. I just don't think you can put it on coaching that some converted TE from Ball State didn't develop into a good RG. And how do you square Raimann's in-season development while Strausser was still here? I think it's as much as personnel as it was coaching. And the OL still has a lot of questions: A solid to very good RT who has trouble with speed An uninspiring R7 pick at RG A vet C who has been regressing for two years A great LG who hasn't been a great LG for two years (after having multiple surgeries) A soon-to-be 26 year-old 2nd year LT who people are projecting to be good next year, based off a small sample of snaps The only additions to the roster have been a R4 OT who has issues with change of direction and plays too high, so I doubt he's ready to make much of an impact early on...and an UDFA whose medicals were so bad that no team would even use a R7 pick on him. And they are going to be starting a rookie QB. Given all of this, I would imagine the plan will be to simplify the playbook greatly so that the OL has less of a chance to create issues. Sort of like they did during last season. But that's still a risky approach. If the OL is bad this year, we will know for certain who is to blame.

They can't really cut or trade him until 2025 anyways, due to the contract structure. It would require a huge dead cap hit and another team to be willing to take on his base salary. And even though Q has been elite in the past, I am not sure if I have ever seen a vet G traded.

PFF seems to be giving him the benefit of the doubt, which he has earned a bit of with his track record. But they are still being generous. Even according to their own grading system, no way he's #2 on that list. PFF grades 2020, 2021 and 2022 2. Quenton Nelson: 86.2, 69.1 and 68.4 3. Joel Bitonio: 84.6, 93.6 and 87.5 4. Chris Lindstrom: 77.1, 83.7 and 95.0 5. Joe Thuney: 74.2, 80.5, 77.3 6. Michael Onwenu: 84.3, 87.0 and 79.3 9. Shaq Mason: 85.4, 85.2 and 68.9 (just signed for 3/$36M) 10. Wyatt Teller: 92.7, 84.9 and 70.3 He has two <70 PFF grades in the past two years. None of those other players has one. Based on the last 3 years, he's probably in that #9-10 range if we include 2020. But the past two years, he's probably in that #15-20 range. And his regression coincided with having multiple surgeries. Just really hard to not have concerns going forward. But all we can do is hope for the best from him.

That's the thing...Q's contract is way backloaded. So is Leonard's for that matter. The difference is that Leonard's contract has an out after this season (which sadly I could see happening without a bounceback healthy season). So to your point, Q hasn't even gotten expensive yet. And his $19M base salary for for 2024 became gtd back in March. Here are his cap hits: 2023 - $12.2M ($49.8 dead) 2024 - $25.2M ($37.6M dead) 2025 - $22.7M ($12.4M dead) He's very likely here for at least the next 3 years, so it's a sunk cost at this point. And that's a big contract for a guy who has graded like a top 15-20 LG the past two years. Just hope he bounces back and those back surgeries didn't permanently sap his previous elite level of play. As for the OL overall, it's hard to be confident after last season. Yes, Ryan was a statue, but he still got rid of the ball quick (2.69 TTR). Meanwhile, AR's Time-to-Throw was the second-highest of Power 5 QBs with 200+ PAs (3.19). I don't care how much of an athlete you are, that's danger territory. That's even worse than Fields and it translated to a 14.7% sack rate for Fields.

There's the narrative and there's the film. AR is inaccurate...for the time being. That doesn't mean he won't get better (maybe even a lot better), but it's going to take a lot more than some footwork tweaks, as was the popular take.

But without team success, why would we amplify the good things? Clearly, those things are either not as good as we think or they don't really impact the bottom line. Let me expand on this. (Not directed at you), but I have noticed this shift in recent years from this fanbase to value the process over results. It really all started with Ballard. And now, the process is what gets praised and the results are often met with a shrug. You see it each offseason and across the many facets of this team: Free Agency While a (very vocal) minority want to Ballard be more aggressive in FA, the general consensus (from fans and the media) is that Ballard is being patient and shrewd when he won't overpay early in FA and give out "A money for B players." And by doing this, he is able to wait and get great value for cheap. Basically, he's doing FA the right way. And some results have been great (Houston, Rhodes and Gilmore), but it's not like this team couldn't have used FA talent the past few years. Draft Originally, the "Ballard Way" was targeting high-character players (often who had overcome challenges) because Ballard was building a strong culture with a great locker room. Now, it's all about traits and RAS scores. The past two draft classes were both met with immediate praise, largely based on RAS scores and that overall approach. And then of course you have trading back. You would think Ballard invented this approach. That said, it can be very effective like 2018, but even that trade back was only a huge success because one of the gained picks happened to be either Leonard or Smith. The rest of that trade haul was Turay and RYS. And since then, what has trading back yielded from a results standpoint? I honestly don't know, but I also don't see people really talking about the great results. Yet, every offseason he is praised for trading back. QB Ballard was highly-praised after the Wentz trade because he supposedly made an offer and didn't budge, forcing PHI and Howie to cave. And everybody thought he took PHI to the cleaners with that negotiation. Now that we have the results of that move, and it was all Reich's fault apparently. Ballard took even more victory laps for the Ryan move. He was literally dubbed a genius for how he approached QB last offseason. The Wentz trade was great, no doubt. But it was Matt Ryan demanding a trade that resulted in Ryan falling into Ballard's lap for a R3 pick. But regardless of how it happened, Ballard had outsmarted everybody. The amount of awful takes from last offseason are too numerous to count. But the point is these bad takes were all based on overvaluing/overrating the process. And now we have AR. Like 95% have wanted AR since the Combine, so I get that Ballard is praised for taking him. But the narrative is already here that Ballard had to swing for upside and a HR because the AFC is too strong with too many great QBs. Not only that, but AR just has too high of an upside to see it realized on another team. Basically, Ballard HAD to draft AR if he was there. And based on the results, he's either going to be a genius or it just wasn't meant to be. But the process was sound, so I doubt he takes too much heat. And certainly not for years. But in reality, drafting a college QB who only has 13 starts and accuracy issues at #4 isn't really a sound process.

Oh definitely. AR can make plays and drop some nice throws. I just think some of what you see on tape is a bit alarming, especially for a QB who went top 5 and will likely start right away. Personally, I think his short passing will need an overhaul. This might be a bad comp, but it sort of reminds me of fielding a groundball at pitcher...and then trying to accurately soft toss it to 1B. It's difficult to do when your mechanics are built to throw it hard. And instead of doing it once or twice, you have to do it 21-22x per game without sailing over the 1B or throwing it in the dirt.

I don't put the loss on AR. Wins are a team stat. But I would put it more on the offense and STs. The defense actually kept them in that game in the 2H. They did give up a TD on the first 2H drive. But the next TD was off an INT and a short field. And then they shut it down for 4 straight drives, only allowing a FG because UF went for it on 4D way backed up in their zone. I know what the purpose of your post was. And it's a narrative I have heard all over the place. I am just saying I don't know if I buy it. But mostly, it's the other narrative about he's actually really far along and not a project that I most disagree with.

I don't think the QB carousel is a valid excuse. It hasn't been ideal, but other tier 1 WRs have definitely made it work with similar or worse options at QB than Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan. Not only that, he has been the unquestioned #1 target on this team for the past two years, garnering a 26% target share (top 14-17 in the NFL). Pittman didn't really even have to earn it, as there haven't really been other WRs (until recently) competing for those targets. There are WRs in the NFL that would kill for that level of opportunity. There are also other WRs who could put that type of production, if given that level of target share. And I think it's fair to wonder if Pittman has actually underwhelmed a bit relative to the opportunity he has gotten. There are plenty of NFL WRs who could be volume-dependent possession WRs. If they are going to get more vertical with the passing game, then this will be a good chance for Pittman to show he's more than that. But right now, I don't really see the need to pay $20M+ for what Pittman provides, although AR needs to have a WR1 he can develop with. And I don't see that being Alec Pierce at all.

It's tough with JT. Because he has a ton of wear and tear from college to now. And before, it didn't really matter because he was an iron man and didn't get hurt...until he did. So now they have to factor in the injury risk. And I am sure they would want to see him stay healthy and perform at that high level before giving the contract. Don't want a Leonard or Q situation, where he either can't get on the field, or if he does, it's in a diminished capacity. Plus, JT hasn't really made strides as a pass catcher. It's a shame because the guy can hit HRs any time he touches the ball. But if he's not going to be used heavily in the passing game, that also factors into how he is paid. I think a comp for JT is a rich man's Miles Sanders...a high yds/carry RB with big play ability who doesn't really do much in the passing game. Sanders was an AP in Steichen's scheme (with a rushing QB). But CAR was able to sign Sanders for $6M/year. So it's hard to imagine paying a ton more for JT, let alone 2.5x more.

That's fair. I honestly didn't see the link at the top. I just meant that this thought exercise supports the idea that, while the Colts have talent to pay, it's more middle-tier (or bottom of the tier), except for JT. And that can result in overpaid players that don't really move the needle, but are more expensive.

:35 is the most egregious drop. It cost them a TD, or at least a goal to go. But the catch before :35 was a one-armed diving catch on 4th and 7. It was a great throw, but an even better catch. A few players earlier in that drive, Pearsall broke multiple tackles and turned a short pass into 26 yards to pick up a 1D on 3rd and 25. If we are pointing out drops, we should also point out low probability plays that WRs make: Like 4:55 where AR throws it behind the LOS and the RB turns it into 30 yards against prevent defense Or at 3:55, when a WR somehow gets behind the entire Vandy secondary Not sure how you can blame the WR for 2:55. It was an accurate deep pass, but a bit underthrown and the DB hits it at the end. If AR throws that ball in the NFL...he might regret it. You definitely can't blame the WR for 3:10. That play was exactly the kind of stuff this fanbase skewered Wentz for. AR makes a terrible decision to throw a pass while falling over backwards. Naturally, it's inaccurate and the WR had to dive for it and it popped up in the air. I doubt that's even considered a drop. Either way, AR earned that INT. 5:05 was a bad drop. But he caught it a TD two plays later, so it didn't really hurt anything, except add an incompletion in this one game. (Well, two because he threw an incompletion on 3D as well). But this was Vandy. Against an NFL pass rush, secondary and a competent offense, the Colts would probably lose this game something like 38-17 with that level of play. There are certainly really good things in the tape as well, especially some nice deeper passes right on the money. It's not a bad game. In fact, it's one of his better games statistically. But if this is supposed to be a shining example to support the narrative he is actually very far along he is and improved over the course of the season, I am not buying it, especially with the FSU game the next week. I also think this is a bit of a dangerous narrative as well because it could create high expectations for this coming season without much reason to support it. But that will just have to play out.

But this has been the Colts MO for the past few years. They keep real quiet about personnel moves, but as soon as they are made, the PR starts in some form or fashion. And it has to originate from somewhere. I know what Ballard said that presser about managing expectations, but I don't know if I believe him. And I would hope fans are already doing that after last season...when hey were told that Ryan was the best QB since Luck, that he was a 3-4 year fix and made the Colts darkhorse SB contenders.

Unbelievable...because it sort of is. In that Vandy game, there were a few egregious drops, but also plenty of overthrown passes, fastballs, passes thrown behind WRs, etc. Just look at the last drive alone: 1st play - waited too long and pass is deflected (likely heading into triple coverage for an INT anyways) 2nd play - 99 MPH fastball to his RB who is less than 10 yards away (a drop AND a bad throw) Second to last play - Throws it way behind the WR who has to dive to catch it (should have ended the game) Last play - AR throws a deep pass into the stands and the game is over This was the second to last game of the season....against a really bad college defense who mostly gave AR all day to throw. And somehow, against this opponent, UF was down 28-12 in the 4Q. And then were only able to get some things going in the 4Q, while Vandy was mostly playing soft defense. Look, I am not a scout by any means, and this is JMO. But I don't know how any objective person could watch this Vandy tape and not see a guy, who has tremendous upside, but is still a huge work in progress. And the following next week, he competed 33% of his passes against FSU...his final game of the season. Here's the tape if anyone wants to watch:

He's a solid player. But I highly doubt any team would give Grover Stewart $20M+, even if he was 26. He just doesn't provide that type of value. I doubt Wilkins even gets that. And he's a legit stud, with mid R1 draft capital.