shasta519

After two very disappointing seasons and a frustrating series of QB changes, it's interesting that they are willing to risk more games and potentially even seasons...since they don't have a viable vet starter to allow AR to sit back and learn for a season. And it doesn't even sound like they want that either. He's going to learn on the fly. And those other QBs who had low comp % in their first college seasons had the advantage of learning with experience and over time at the college level...before making the huge jump to the NFL. That's a big difference IMO. AR is skipping that part and making the huge leap right now, which is sort of like graduating halfway through a pre-med degree program and going right into the surgery room. You could have a great teacher/mentor, but it's very hard to replace learning from experience at a proper pace. But they do seem to be managing expectations much better this time around.

A few differences: Allen was at Wyoming though. Despite AR's WR talent being less than it is for others, he was still playing with 4-star and 5-star recruits. And Pearsall made a lot of tough catches. Allen put more NFL throws on tape...especially off-platform. But that's JMO as they both clearly have huge arms. Allen's issues were more on deep passes and behind LOS, which were, in theory, easier to fix with mechanic tweaks (behind LOS) or improve with NFL talent (deep passing). AR's overall short-area improvement is beyond Allen Allen is just such a lofty comparison at this point. But it does show that a QB can dramatically improve at the NFL level.

Typically, there isn't a lot of stability in any QB stats. However, comp % is one of the more stable metrics when projecting to the NFL. And nearly all of that stability comes from the short area (0-9) yards. Going back to 2015, here is the correlation for 4 different areas of the field for QBs in their 2nd and 3rd seasons in the NFL (37 total). You can clearly see the difference in short area vs. the rest: Edit: Maybe you can't clearly see it cause it's so small haha. Here are the numbers: Behind LOS: -0.038 Short (0-9 yards): +0.133 Medium (10-19 yards): -0.017 Deep: (20+ yards): +0.017

If you want to feel optimistic, go watch his game tape against Tennessee. It's on YT. There are lots of good flashes in there. Granted, it's TENN, it's not UGA. He moves around the pocket well and he's hard to bring down (though NFL players will be stronger and faster). His mechanics and footwork clearly need help. Because of this, he will throw some great passes and some wth passes. Considering he seems to throw 95 MPH fastballs every time, I think his WRs got a bad rap. You can see them some drops, but you can also see them making plays in this game...breaking tackles and getting YAC or adjusting to passes.

I think that’s a wild take. Newton and Lamar were Heisman winners. Fields was completing 70% of his passes. AR is not way beyond where those guys were at that point.

Yeah...I didn't mean to imply that it would shake the entire world of scouting. But it would have to open up some eyes, wouldn't it? Josh Allen certainly did. And I consider AR to be an even more extreme example, at least according to the metrics. The people who watch tape might see it differently. But if I had to guess, there are quite a few NFL scouts throughout the league that would have passed on drafting AR, at least in R1. But if he develops into an elite franchise QB, that perception will be heavily challenged. And the NFL is a copycat league, so I think you will start seeing other college players dubbed the "next AR" and so on...younger, athletic QBs that fit that mold. Will it push them up draft boards and therefore push some of them to declare earlier than usual. I would think it's certainly possible. Mahomes was pretty much awesome in college. I didn't really look at QBs back then because Luck was here. But I have gone back and watched some of his tape. And even though it's impossible to watch without some hindsight I think you can just see it...the off-platform throws, the arm, the angles. I think his issues stemmed somewhat from being an Air Raid QB, which much like inexperience and accuracy, was a previous red flag for QBs.

Even a well-established exec like Dodds apparently had reservations about AR's experience. So I think turning a 20 year-old traitsy QB with only 13 games in college into a legit franchise QB will and should change how QBs are scouted. Other teams will certainly come to similar educated and trained guesses about QBs. I bet it happens next season.

The popular narrative was that he didn't get any coaching, but that sounds like it was too much coaching.

The results of this AR experiment potentially could change a lot. If it works, it's a massive data point for the idea that teams can just grab just any uber-athletic QB with a big arm and mold him into an NFL-caliber passer. I mean...if you can fix/develop a QB that young with that type of short-area accuracy, in theory, you could fix/develop just about any QB (assuming they have the drive). How does that impact the top of the draft? Will more QBs go in R1? Or will teams start taking a lot more Day 2 swings on traitsy QBs? Also, what does that mean for QBs in college? If a QB can just get paid and get drafted by a team eager to develop him with NFL coaching, why go back? What value is there in trying to put another college season on tape if teams are already fine with betting on upside? I imagine we would see a lot more guys coming out after 3 years, regardless of how well that season went. It's very interesting. Like any sport, there are traditionalists that probably hate it.

Hmmm...a top exec is lukewarm on getting a QB that needs fixing, but eventually changes his mind. Doesn't sound familiar at all. I will have to read that article when I get a chance.

Maybe they felt like this wasn't a strong interior OL class, but it was strange to have 12 picks and not pick one. I thought for sure they would go with one early R2. Maybe they thought they would be there in R3 and they didn't fall.

That's true about 2012. But Allen was a John Mackey award winner and Fleener was an early R2 pick, who played with Luck at Stanford. I would say that's a bit different than Woods (who is still developing as a blocker) and a Day 3 TE who hasn't played an NFL snap (Ogletree and Mallory) being TE1 and TE2. I suppose Brown could be the TE2 though. If they had drafted someone like Mayer, then I think him and Woods could absolutely be starters. But they are going to keep one of MAC or Granson as that vet TE.

That's a refreshingly objective analysis. A Hurts timeline is probably the best case scenario. AR gets some run his first year and starts year 2. Takes off year 3. Hurts was one year older as a rookie than AR will be. But Hurts also had played 30 more college games at that point, including a season with Lincoln Riley. And then he got an entire 2nd season to develop with Steichen before breaking out last season. I just don't think there is going to be a cheat code for AR's lack of experience. It's going to take time.

Same here. I think he's been great for the Colts and city of Indy. But he's a kook. Have we just blacked out the past 12 months?

One of MAC or Granson will have to be on the roster. I just can't see them having a TE room that consists of a 2nd year Jelani Woods (who is still raw) and two TEs who have not played in the NFL yet (Ogletree and Mallory). That said, I am interested to see what happens with Granson. The H-back loving HC that wanted him is now in CAR, so I wonder if he is much of a fit for what Steichen will want to do. I have a very different view on this TE room than other Colts fans. Would have loved to grab one early this year, in what was one of the deepest classes in a long time.

Yep. A lot easier to justify a B grade than an A+ grade IMO. Also, teams enter the draft with very different amounts of capital. I believe the Colts had the 6th most. None of it will matter though until 3 years down the road. Because this draft hinges on how AR develops.

It's also pretty silly to be throwing out A+ grades. That's more of a general feeling though. It's all a crapshoot and these grades are based on big boards that become irrelevant as soon as the draft starts. But for Kiper, my guess is that this comes down to AR over Levis. I think he had Levis as #1. I think Prisco also had Levis or AR because he graded that pick a B. But everybody agrees about the upside. I suppose if the #4 pick is a B, then it's pretty hard to move the needle to an A, let alone an A+, especially with only (2) Day 2 picks and then a bevy of Day 3 picks. Setting aside my own reservations about AR, my criticism would be with how Ballard played R2. I think there were legit R1 talents that fell, as well as top tier interior OL prospects available. I don't feel like passing up those players to trade back for (likely) projects at #110 and #141 was worth it. And then they drafted a CB that I thought was more of a R3 pick. But overall, I would still give this draft an A-.

Sounds like the classic athletic tweener DL player to play as a pass rusher from the interior early on while he develops more as an overall pass rusher. Hard to find a good comp. But I would love to see him be like a Rashan Gary type.

I’m sure it’s been mentioned, but I love how this is setting up for AFCS battle royale of 2023 draft QBs. Stroud in HOU AR in IND Levis in TEN QB2-4 of this class, all in the same division.

Why? So I can hear about how Luck will be the Week 1 starter in 2017, or how the Colts are winning multiple Lombardis, or how Wentz is the next guy for 10 years, or how Matt Ryan will be here for 3-4 years. Or how the LAR are some cautionary tale. I hear what he says. I just take it all with a huge grain of salt. He says kooky stuff all the time. If he’s saying AR is going to be the Week 1 starter, I am also taking that with a big grain of salt.

That’s exactly what it is…deja vu. They said and thought the same things about Wentz. Now it’s just in a much shinier, newer package. The major difference here is that Reich got one season with Wentz and Steichen will get AR for at least 3.

Nope. I have never been an anti-Irsay person. I appreciate his passion for the Colts. That said, I just don’t pay any attention to anything he says anymore.

Colts staff getting on the table for players always seems to backfire. I just wish they would quit saying this

Seems like a good shot at getting some value out of a Day 3 pick. Can never have enough CBs.

Perhaps Olgetree’s rehab is still up in the air. Either way, always good to add TE talent. I wouldn’t have minded doing it even earlier. MAC is gone after this year. Granson is a JAG and might not really fit Steichen’s scheme. Woods is still developing. Ogletree was hurt. If this guy can play STs (and with that 40 I would imagine he can)…he could be fighting for TE2 by next season.