shasta519

I think if he is bad and they are losing, the fanbase will cheer it on because a certain son of a certain former Colts WR is going to be in the next draft.

2024 would be guess, barring injury. Ballard likes SF and that was the approach they took with Lance. The W1 guesses are wild.

With the interior OL depth available, I think we will almost certainly see a trade back from #35. I hope they don't take Torrence. By default, I stay away from UF players. And they have met that quota. Mayer would be a great get. This will be interesting to see what Ballard will do.

Hurts didn't break and mold. He was nearly 70% comp coming out of college. And he had started 3x as many college games. By the time Steichen got to him, he far less of a project. Also, AR's improvement in accuracy is beyond Allen. That said, the pick is the pick. And I am excited to see what happens. I respect that they have the confidence in this selection. We are going to find out in a couple years how legit Steichen is.

Trying to catch up. Is your issue that Steichen spoke to accuracy being his top trait and then wanted to draft a woefully inaccurate QB prospect?

Judging by how they treated the last person who did that, the local media won't like it at all.

Possible? It’s probable. This is a rebuild.

Yes. I believe it was time for a change. Not just the QB approach, but the fact that the Colts were a 4-win team in his first year and were once again a 4-win team in his 6th year...with hardly any success in between. But that's all on paper. Irsay clearly loves him...or is just stubborn to admit his Michael Jordan of NFL GMs might actually be Derrick Rose. But now Ballard is going to put his stamp on a QB.

It could certainly be the Colts. I just don’t see the benefit to ARI of agreeing to a trade in advance unless there’s no chance a better one comes along. And I just don’t see how IND could have made an offer they can’t refuse. But it’s certainly possible. I mean…if TEN calls at 8:21 on Thursday and offers up something silly because Stroud is there, does ARI welch? Just seems like ARI would keep their options open unless they have the best possible deal in hand. And that would likely come from a team picking after the Colts. Also seems like the conditions of point to a team needing to get in front of IND as well. But I really have no idea.

That's true. They could have just decided that they want a certain player and don't want to move down anyways. So they will take what they can get from IND. Or maybe there aren't any takers, so they will take what they can get from IND. But then not sure how they managed to leverage IND into a trade if they aren't willing to move down or if they don't have any takers. I think ARI trading with IND makes the most sense, but it's also the least likely. Ballard isn't getting leveraged into a trade up.

Yep. There are always QBs that emerge each year. And there might not be 10 RAS score QBs, but there will be more and more athletic, traitsy QBs. Next year's class is potentially great. My hot take is that, in 5 years, out of the top 5 QBs drafted this year and next...4 of them will be in next year's class. And if that one QB in this class goes #1 or #2, then the Colts miss out. I just like the odds next year better. But that's JMO...nothing to back it up but watching some of these guys. For all I know, the top 4 this year will be great. Or the Colts will end up with the one great guy.

Assuming this is accurate, I bet it's not the Colts. If ARI has agreed to a deal at this point, it's likely because they can't get a better deal. And it's hard to believe that IND is offering up the best value in a trade back, since it's just one spot. Also, why would ARI agree to a trade with IND and shut out the teams behind IND that could offer up more. My guess would be TEN or LV.

Yep. Strikes me as a late R1 or Day 2 upside prospect. I think two years ago he would have been. And in two years, will be once again, as there continues to be an influx of athletic, traitsy QBs. Somebody mentioned the 2020 draft and I think that is a great comp. You have Young and Stroud as the clear top 2, much like Herbert and Tua. And then you have this next tier with AR and Levis, much like Love and Hurts. I don't think he's going to be causing any team remorse. Teams will have their reasons to pass on him and can justify it that way. And if he does bust, the team that picks him will be justified for chasing the high upside.

Yep. I don't even think it's debatable. It's on tape and it's in the stats. There are plenty of good things on tape as well. But the short area passing is what translates to the NFL. And it is likely to upwards of 70% of throws he will make in the NFL, regardless of which scheme Steichen uses. If it's mechanics, footwork and touch...then that is trifecta. Might be reasonable to fix 1-2, but all 3? I just don't know. And they would basically be trying to fix him at the NFL level where the learning curve is massive. I think for a team to do it, AR sitting all of next season at the very least is a must. I know people want him to get live reps, but the worst thing that can happen is you put him in a game he throws like 3 INTs in a half because NFL DCs are disguising coverages and he's throwing wild short passes right to defenders. Like Doug said, teams like SEA and LV are in better positions to draft a project like AR and let him sit behind a vet until he's ready. I would be surprised if he goes top 4. But the uncertainty is what makes the draft so fun.

Paye's prediction is spot on. The Colts will "draft that guy from the other school."

The QB position is very different from other positions where you might draft a project player, based on things he can do. And when Ballard had said that, he hadn't drafted a QB early. But he has said plenty specifically on the QB position over the years. Here's a couple of note: His most important trait is “Accuracy, No. 1” As the "we can fix him" Wentz experiment was nearing its end, here is what Ballard said in his post 2021 season conference: "Just make the layups. Just make the layups. Make the layups. Like the throw against Arizona was incredible; there might be two or three other quarterbacks in the league who could make that. But let’s make the layups. Those highlight throws are great....Make the layups. Make the layups.” Enter AR, a QB prospect who is in the 3rd percentile for short-area accuracy. He can make the highlight throws/plays, but can he make the layups? Well, the numbers haven't shown it. In fact, he is such an outlier, that the necessary improvement would be beyond any QB we have seen, including comps like Josh Allen: So it comes down to whether they believe they can fix that. And if Ballard didn't really want to trade for Wentz, then he got burnt by trusting Reich (his HC for three years) that he could fix Wentz. And if he has any reservations about AR, is he going to go against his gut again and trust his brand-new HC to do what Reich didn't? Would he even want to put that burden on his new HC? It cost Reich his job. AR is an exciting prospect, but from everything Ballard has said over the years, it just seems it would go against recent history and his nature to roll the dice on AR.

Yep. Irsay said he was waffling on giving Reich that extension in August of 2021. So it's very hard to believe that, six months earlier (Feb of 2021), Irsay would have sided with Reich over Ballard (if Ballard actually didn't want to trade for Wentz, which I don't buy).

I have no idea how one came to this conclusion. Sounds like something that Colts Twitter would come up with. Reich had a top 10 scoring offenses in 3/5 seasons (with a different QB each year). He was constantly designing his scheme to his QB's strengths. It just turned out that the most recent ones had no strengths left. That's not to say it wasn't time for a change, but blaming Frank for the QB situation or offensive woes is a tired narrative.

What? DEN scored 13 points in that game. Luck was solid, but he only had a 76 passer rating in that game.

Hmmm...let me clarify. AR's ability as a passer will be a great case study of tape vs. analytics. I think everybody agrees that he's a great athlete. It's in the testing and on the tape. As for his passing, I would say the pro-Richardson side is definitely the tape side.

That would mean Robinson and Gibbs both go...and only ONE of Smith-Njigba/Flowers/Johnson/Addison goes in R1.

This is going to be a great case study of tape vs. analytics.

The person comping Levis to Josh Rosen complaining about an anti-AR campaign haha The whole draft process has been a pro-AR campaign.

Same thing happened during the HC hiring process, when they would all go out of their way to bash Saturday at any given chance. TBF, it wasn’t just them…it was the local guys as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they all have the same sources. Or one has the sources and shares it. But they do have a tendency to get in lock-step on certain things (Raheem Morris was another example).

He’s sharing the process AND boasting. Not only about how they were right about Boller being a bust because he lacked confidence (the reason they took him off their board), but also that their plan to misdirect worked because they tricked BAL into trading up in front of them. But BAL had the #10 pick and could have taken Boller or Grossman if they wanted, regardless of these antics. They traded up from #41 to take Boller. Probably to that spot because NE is one of the few teams willing to move that far down for future draft capital, as BB was well ahead of the curve.