shasta519

Nope. I posted facts to add some objectivity to a discussion, which I do quite often. You accuse me of wiping the slate clean with Grigson, whatever that means. Seems like a strawman argument. But if what I said was so "wowza," then it should be easy enough to debate the points I made.

All excellent points. It was a flaw in Luck's game and a flaw in the coaching staff. BA is a celebrated SB-winning HC, but he didn't Luck any favors in 2012 (as far as Luck getting hit). Then he had Chud as well. And Irsay mentoring Grigson is an under-reported issue that I really wish we knew more about. The OL approach is interesting. But Grigson did attempt to address the OL in FA. They just mostly got hurt. Regarding those FA spending sprees. We know that Irsay wanted to win right away with Luck and we also had Irsay tweeting about getting on planes with briefcases full of cash for FAs. His fingerprints and impact were clearly all over those aggressive offseasons. Curious how much impact he had on the TRich deal as well. Still a terrible trade either way. And like you said, Irsay was just in a bad way at the time. It was also reported that Irsay gave more power to Pagano in the latter years, which certainly had an impact, not only on the roster, but on the FO/HC relationship as well. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Grigson was a good GM. Ballard has definitely proven to be a better talent evaluator. But it was a very different time then. And that context is valid. Fast forward to now, and Irsay's patient approach with Ballard is vastly different.

Grigson had Luck healthy for 4 years...2012-14, 2016. Luck missed 9 games in 2015. In the 7 games he played, he was mostly really bad, with an overall 74.9 passer rating, a 55% completion % and 15 TD/12 INT. It was a lost season, as far as Luck is concerned. But the 2015 Colts actually went 8-8 and played meaningful football in late December. They actually had a winning record with an old Matt Hasselback at QB (5-3). The only season that Grigson didn't win 11 games (with a healthy Luck) was 2016, in his 5th and final year. An objective way to look at the comp: In his second year as GM, with a healthy Luck at QB, Grigson went 11-5 and won a WC game against a flawed KC team. Got spanked in the Divisional round. In his second year as GM, with a healthy Luck at QB, Ballard went 10-6 and won a WC game against a flawed HOU team. Got spanked in the Divisional round. Those are very similar feats. And that was with Ballard having a lot more draft capital to rebuild the roster when he took over. If Luck had played in 2019, and Ballard had gone to the AFCCG in his 3rd season as GM (like Grigson did), that would have been a very similar feat as well. But Ballard likely would have gotten so much more hype and credit. I also don't get how Luck supposedly carried the Grigson-era teams, but not the 2018 team (which is Ballard's only playoff win to date). Ballard got the best version of Luck we have seen that season...and won 10 games. They were 1-5 until Luck started playing at an AP level. Just seems like a double standard, as does the comparison of team success with Luck. I think Ballard is the better GM, but the fanbase has become irrational about Grigson for some reason.

Let’s get one thing straight. He might not have been a good GM, Grigson did NOT ruin Luck’s career. His contribution was no larger than anybody else. And blaming it on Grigson is just irrational. Luck suffered three main injuries during his time: 1. Torn labrum on a sack against TEN in early 2015. (OL’s fault) 2. Lacerated kidney and pulled abdomen muscles. Happened during a scramble against DEN where Luck had a clean pocket but took off running (like he often did). (Not OL’s fault) 3. Sprained AC joint from a snowboarding accident after the 2015 season, when he was already hurt. (Not OL’s fault) So ONE injury occurred due to poor OL play. Everybody knows that football is physical and violent (and that Luck had a very physical play style too). Players can (and do) get hurt on any play…QBs can get hurt on ANY sack or hit, regardless of the OL. Luck’s shoulder injury happened early in only his 4th season. There are QBs who have played for far longer and absorbed many more hits and sacks over their careers, but never suffered an injury like that. Luck might have led a list of players with QB hits from 2012-2015. But the other three players were Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Ryan Tannehill. All still playing. Luck would be too…if he had chosen to. Hell, Ryan, at age 36, was sacked 40x and knocked-down more than any QB last season. This was his 4th-straight 40+ sack season. And we are talking about him playing until he is possibly 40. Wentz was second in QB knock-downs last year with this OL. Never got hurt, except for when he scrambled. The best example is probably JB. In 2017, he led the league in sacks and was hit a ton. Missed no games. But then in 2019, when he is playing behind an elite OL, JB gets hurt because of an OL player. The irony. So % happens. And nobody was blaming a poor OL (and Ballard by proxy) for that JB injury. If that knee injury somehow led to JB retiring, people would just call it bad luck. And that’s all it was for Luck…just bad luck. Beyond silly to blame the GM for a QB getting hurt one time and even worse to blame him for that QB retiring on his own decision.

The difference with Rivers is that he was still a very good QB. Cumulatively, across the three seasons prior to coming to Indy, here is how Rivers ranked in the NFL (age 36-38): EPA/play: .188 (#6) DVOA: #4 (2017), #3 (2018) and #15 (2019) PBer in 2017 and 2018 Now here is what Ryan has done in the past 3 seasons (age 34-36): EPA/play: .082 (#25) DVOA: #14 (2019), #15 (2020) and #21 (2021) With Rivers, the Colts were getting an older QB, but one who was putting up quasi top 5 QB numbers in 2/3 recent years, according to EPA and DVOA. And while he was top 10-12 in his one season in Indy, he didn’t quite get back to that level. With Ryan, they are getting a slightly younger QB, but one who has recently been middle of the pack QB or worse the past 3 years, according to EPA and DVOA. The idea that he is going to suddenly be a legit great QB seems like a stretch. It’s actually somewhat similar to the arguments about Wentz when you looked at his play over the past 3 seasons. But at least Wentz was in his late 20s. But I do think a couple of solid seasons is doable for Ryan. Just not sure where that leaves this team from a competitive standpoint.

I do disagree. But the Colts two moves weren’t even FAs…so why didn’t they just say offseason? I assume this is using their WAR? Otherwise, it would seem PFF is sort of contradicting their own grades and rankings here. Ryan was actually behind Wentz in their QB Total rankings last year. We can’t compare Rock and Yannick position rankings since they are different, but Rock did have a much higher grade than Yannick. Ngakoue actually had a <50 PFF grade last year.

For sure. Getting rid of Wentz early was still the right move though.

That’s a big part of the equation. And I do really like the Ryan pickup if the intention is to draft and develop a QB and let him learn behind Ryan for a year or two. So we will see about that. As for this year, unless we see a few moves prior to the draft (which we might), there are probably more pressing needs in the draft. They also gtd his $35M cap hit next year, which means they are committed to him for at least 2 years. So in that way, it is a win now move. But I also think it is setting it them up to draft one next year.

Last season, Ryan didn’t have anything to work with other than Pitts. That’s why I am looking at more than last year. The prior two seasons (2019 and 2020), Ryan definitely had receiving weapons, better than the Colts at this moment. And he put up middle of the pack numbers. I think Ryan is still a good QB. But it seems there is a narrative that he’s a huge improvement over Wentz. But Wentz also put up middle of the pack numbers (just with more volatility) prior to and while he was here. So setting aside the volatility, the recent numbers don’t suggest a massive improvement. I get stats aren’t everything, but that’s how I usually base my opinion. At this point though, I am just repeating myself. I do agree with the lack of moves. Which is why I also questioned the idea that the Colts have drastically improved so far.

Nah. I am the equivalent of the smart friend who gets it right a lot. Unless you just have dumb friends. You are apparently the friend that likes to move the goal posts and make strawman arguments. Where did I say Ryan wasn’t good? Middle of the pack QB in the NFL is typically a good QB. But it’s not a great QB or elite QB. The type that would “drastically” improve the QB position. And your original position was that Ryan is a “drastic” improvement at QB. I used actual recent and relevant data to show why I disagree. But all you heard was me being a hater who thinks Ryan is a bad QB. Think this conversation is probably over at this point.

They’ve lost some players. Reed, Fisher (unless you want Pryor to be the LT), Glow. Also lost Doyle, Pascal and maybe Hilton. I didn’t want them back, but where’s the upgrades. But who have they even added? Ngakoue is a good player. But he’s been so impactful and irreplaceable that he has been on 3 teams in the past two seasons. He should improve the pass rush, but losing Rock could hurt the pass defense. Net positive hopefully. Already exhausted two posts on Ryan. If I were you, I wouldn’t make that bet you are taking about. Been on vacation, so maybe I missed some moves. But it seems like Ballard swapped Rock for a productive vet pass rusher and Wentz for an older Matt Ryan, who hasn’t really been a better QB than Wentz the past few years…and many fans are calling this offseason a slam dunk and talking like this team is in the driver’s seat for the AFCS. That’s cool, but I just don’t see it…yet.

37 or 38…doesn’t really matter. Neither are age 33…which is the last time Ryan was actually really good QB. He’s also had really good weapons in ATL. And cherry-picked stats without any context are literally nonsense. In a season of ridiculous QB numbers in 2020, Ryan was a middle of the pack QB at best, except for the one stat you posted. And he had those yards because he threw more passes than any QB. I like Ryan, a lot more than Wentz, but he’s been a middle of the pack QB for a few years now. And that’s not a drastic on-field or on-paper improvement. Feel free to disagree, but the numbers are the numbers. And they can be very predictive, much like Father Time.

We can throw it out. But it’s still a 9-win team over the past 4 years. Good, not great. But we should then acknowledge that Ballard got a free year to add players to the roster. And a top 3 pick to use in year 2. Not nearly as wrong of a deal as people make it out to be. As for Pagano, Grigson didn’t want Pagano as HC either, especially in 2015-16. If we’re blaming a bad offseason and regular season in 2017 on Pagano, then the Grigson hate and blame should adjust accordingly. But it won’t ever do that. Just seems like a different set of standards. We will disagree, but I think this team maxes out at 10 wins with Ryan, assuming they bring in a couple of pass catchers. But that’s JMO. There’s a reason why they play the games.

Drastically better on paper? They swapped out one middle of the pack QB for another who has been middle of the pack the past few years. And while Ryan has a much better track record, he’s also 8 years older. His MVP season was a long time ago, much like Wentz’s was as well. And he is also going to be 38. Not every QB can be Brady, Rodgers or even Rivers: Ngakoue is no doubt a big improvement in production and performance over Turay, who was previously the pass rushing specialist. Just about any proven pass rusher would have been. But it did come at the cost of their CB1, who finally put together a very promising season. That’s a downgrade until we see how replacement. And starting CBs (in this defense) suddenly being less important with a better pass rush is still theoretical. For now, losing Rock offsets the pass rush improvement. I think this team can still win 9-10 games. But if there is any regression with TOs on defense or if Taylor merely plays at a level below being an MVP…I don’t see this team winning MORE games than last year, let alone being drastically better. There are several holes on this roster. And we will have to see how they get addressed.

Why the name of this thread? So we are equating any Ballard criticism to nothing more than complaining now?

But having MAC as your TE1 isn't a good thing though...that's the point. He shouldn't be a priority. I imagine Franklin being a locker room leader and team captain did play a big role. That's how this team operates. But truthfully, I can't begin to tell you how little that stuff matters to me. That's JMO...I am not criticizing it, but I also don't applaud it. It is interesting that Ballard wouldn't give Odum a long-term deal, but Franklin gets one. Something tells me that won't sit well with Odum.

I might say that if they actually signed anybody. But regardless, I would rather fish where the fish are...so to speak. If there are legit studs available on defense at positions of need in FA (and I believe those two to be studs), I would rather sign them and use my draft capital on offense.

So basically a 9-win team the past 4 years. That's a fringe playoff team.

All I know is Marcus Williams at $16M AAV would have been fine with me. Reddick too. The two most important needs on defense, especially for Bradley's scheme. But it wasn't to be.

MAC and Franklin fill critical spots? MAC is a TE2 and Franklin played less than 20% of defensive snaps. Basically a blocking TE and a STer. I am glad to have them back, but these are tertiary moves.

Dammit. That was the one guy I was hoping for.

What's illogical about it about pointing out the holes on this roster? I honestly don't know if anyone has used the word "master," but it wouldn't surprise me. Regardless, Ballard is largely considered by many fans to be a top 5 GM...some even think he is THE best GM. So I have no problem holding him to that standard, even at the QB position. And the QB adversity is not remotely unique in anything but strange timing. Nearly all GMs have to address the QB position (many without a top pick). Ballard getting even one season of a QB like Luck is more than most GMs get.

You didn't ask me, but I will share my thoughts. Given that he was hired AFTER Jeff Fisher, I think it's possible that the GM/HC dynamic in STL/LA was different than most teams. Much like Reid in PHI, it's possible that Fisher had more roster control, given his lengthy track record in the NFL. But Snead definitely had misfires during that time, no doubt about that, including drafting Jared Goff. And I remember reading that Fisher didn't even want Goff...or at least didn't want to trade up to get him. However, once Snead was untethered to Fisher, he was able to hire McVay and the rest is sort of history. And when Fisher left, that is about the same time that Snead started becoming very aggressive. I think Snead and Licht are both examples of how GMs getting extended trials cam ultimately work out for a team. And I am sure Irsay is aware of that. So I don't think Ballard is close to being on the hot seat. If anything, Irsay will give Ballard another chance to hire a HC (like Snead did with McVay and Licht with BA).

I don't disagree. Reich has clearly had a ton of influence over the QB position. So it's not a stretch at all to think Reich was the driving force behind that. And after they gave JB that money, Reich called JB "the guy" and "the answer." I think he not only believed in JB, but also believed that the team would rally around him. Goes to show how a lot of that stuff is just noise when the QB can't get it done on the field.

Let me clarify...I meant that he was essentially given the franchise tag, not officially. The projected tag amount for the following offseason was $28.3M, which was very close to what they gave him. I wouldn't be surprised if they even positioned that extension as such. Or it could been JB's agent who came up with the offer. The thought process was to give JB a raise now that he was the starter, but also gain cost control over him for next season. But the issue was that it pushed a good amount of gtd money into 2020 without even seeing him play that year. I just think there were better ways to handle it without having to end up with JB and Rivers on the books for $46M the following year. Not only that, JB being here certainly didn't help provide a backup QB spot for a rookie QB to learn behind Rivers. And to your point, what would have been so wrong with JB having to play it out and earn a big contract? Isn't that part of their team philosophy?