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stitches

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Posts posted by stitches

  1. 23 minutes ago, Superman said:

     

    I assumed he'd get $7m/year, based on the Villanueva contract. That he got $5m makes me wonder about the Fisher deal even more. Fisher is a better player, when healthy, but we could have penciled in Leno in Week 1, and apparently at about half the cost of Fisher who best case doesn't play until late September (and I'm not counting on that). 

    For someone who supposedly doesn't like taking chances, Ballard surely is taking some huge risks with some of his most valuable assets and resources.... 1st and 3d on QB coming off his worst season in the league(and coming with 4 year 100M contract), 10M for LT coming off a late January achilles rupture, 2nd round pick for another player coming off late January Achilles rupture. Last year he spent a 3d on another injured player. His first 1st rounder(Hooker) was another player who was healing an injury at the time. Kemoko was another one with serious injuries before the draft. 

     

    He doesn't seem willing to go for character concern guys, but is perfectly happy to go for injured players and trusting his training and medical staff. I hope he's right. 

  2. 6 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

    Still not risky. It’s off the books anyway.

    The risk is of opportunity cost, not of losing that money. The risk is that we have now made our bet with the LT position and we are missing on more safe options, so if he doesn't recover or recovers and is not the same, we are very likely left with sub-par performance at LT for the year... 

     

     

    • Like 1
  3. 8 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

    Pats source is clearly Ballard lol. He is right here though. It’s a long season.  It actually provides some insurance also if Tevi can’t cut it. 
     

     

    He should have been like "...and my source said ... and I quote 'Look...'" :D 

    • Haha 1
  4. 4 minutes ago, Superman said:

     

    He missed an entire season.

    Brandon Brooks tore his Achilles in the playoffs(January) and started the following season week 1. That's one of the speediest I've heard about. 

     

    This, unfortunately, came with another Achilles injury the following summer(on the other Achilles). No idea if connected in some way(overcompensation?, genetic weakness in the Achilles?)... 

    • Like 1
  5. Just now, Superman said:

     

    LOL

     

    Still waiting on the details. Half of the $9.4m might be playing time bonuses, in which case this makes more sense. I'm not out on it, just don't think he'll be back in September, and if something goes wrong he might not play at all.

     

    A two year deal would have more room for cap flexibility, and would give us a better market position, I think. 

    I've been thinking about a way to break it down... 

     

    What do you think is the probability distribution of his return? Where does it peak? Half-way through the season? Lets say it's right smack in the middle. If you are paying for half a season of a above average LT, you probably need to pay about 9-10M IF he keeps his level of play? Having in mind he was just checked by Colts doctors, I would say they probably think this is reasonable expectation. 

     

    Now what do you think is the chance he keeps his level of play from the last several years(Lets say about AC level)? This is the real question here and I'm more worried on that axis of uncertainty than on whether he will be able to play at some point this year... 

  6. 3 minutes ago, Superman said:

     

    I'm not calling it a death sentence. I'm saying typical recovery doesn't put Fisher back on the field in September.

     

    KD didn't play for 18 months. Mack hasn't returned yet. I don't see anything new out there that suggests that any high level athletes are returning after a ruptured Achilles in a shorter time frame than they did over the past decade. 

    From what I gather they can return to activity relatively quickly, but building back explosion and strength is the tricky part. Oh well... Ballard has bet on 3 players with that same injury this year and 2 of them are pretty big investments and/or key additions - Fisher and Odeyingbo. Lets see if it pays off. 

  7. Part of it is about this specific off-season with the all the depressed market and much less money available than previously expected. On one side - teams don't have the money to give and on the other hand players prefer to take one year deals and wait for the market to normalize next year and test FA with more teams willing to give them more lucrative deals. 

     

    On a Ballard-specific note - he doesn't like giving long-term money for pieces that are not key building blocks of this team. Even when he's given 3 year deals in the past, most of them have had an out after year 1 with little or no dead money on the cap if we choose to cut the player. 

     

    The one year deals have another plus too - they turn into potential compensatory picks if they perform and we are unable to re-sign them. 

     

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  8. Paye said he will be right end in our defense. This is interesting. It probably limits Kemoko's play time too - he was our designated pass-rusher on the right end so far. Now, our defensive line rotates a lot and the highest usage of a player on DE is about 60-65%, so maybe Kemoko takes those remaining 35-40% of the snaps there? 

  9. I guess a good part of this signing is that he is likely to be ready to play for the most important part of the year - the stretch run in the regular season and the playoffs. Now the question is - can we hold and be a winning team until he returns? Like I said in previous thread - it's very possible that one single position is not as problematic if everybody else stays healthy, but still... our OL has been our strength for the last 2-3 years so if we drop to about average, how would that affect Wentz and the offensive playcalling? Will Reich be extra conservative with it similar to how he was in the first several games after Luck's return? 

    • Like 2
  10. 1 minute ago, TomDiggs said:

    I will say that if Fisher plays well enough that we have to tag him after the year (using this years tag number as reference even though it should be slightly higher next year) it would come out to two years and around $23-$24M with the tag being around $14M for OL

     

    So your end goal is totally within reach if Fisher earns it and if we don’t go longer term if he does earn another payday from us. 

    Thanks for the number. That makes sense. For some reason I thought the tag would be more. 

    • Like 1
  11. 40 minutes ago, krunk said:

    Im still sort of expecting Tevi for a game or 2.

    I think it's very possible Tevi(or if someone else beats him in camp) starts the first 6-8 games(Fisher starts on PUP list... then play it by ear after that)... 

    • Like 3
  12. 1 hour ago, Superman said:

    Such a weird deal. We're gonna pay him $9.4m to rehab his Achilles, and there's a strong chance he won't even play for us. 

     

    Of course, the team and doctors know where he is. And maybe the deal is structured in a way that we're not on the hook if he can't go. But still... I'm on the fence on this one. Would have gone with a more reliable option.

    I was thinking the same. This is incredibly steep price for someone we don't even know will be able to play. We take all the risk and get very little to nothing in return. I would have loved it if we got a 2 year 24-25M or something of the sort with the second year being team option and a reward for showing trust in him in case he recovers well. Something like... 7-17 would have been great IMO. I guess the reward in case he recovers well and signs elsewhere is the potential for a compensatory pick, but that's like.. 2 years in the future at this point. 

     

    I guess in this case I hope majority of those 9-10M is tied in playing bonus. Lets wait and see the details. Usually the first number we get is one that is leaked by agent and favorable to the player side. 

    • Like 6
  13. I just watched the only tape available on Strachan online - vs West Virginia State. To be fair this seems like it was his worst game of the season, but he didn't impress me much. The CBs that cover him seem tiny and he cannot beat their press-man off the LOS. He gets jammed and his routes interrupted by physically playing defenders. There are several cases where he beats press-man, but it's mostly because of his superior athleticism rather than skill. He is a willing and physical blocker. Runs very limited route tree(mostly go routes and slants). He had some success on the move when he could release uninterrupted and the defender didn't have a chance to put his hands on him, but overall I would say he seems like a serious project.  Right now I cannot see him getting on an NFL roster. IMO it's very likely Ballard will try to sneak him on the practice squad unless he takes a big stept this off-season.  

     

    From his highlights tape - he seems pretty athletic against that competition. He does outrun defenders. He has good ballskils - tracks the ball well, catches it securely outside his frame, fights for it and attacks it in the air. You can see the appeal. I just am not sure he will ever be able to beat press-man and get open against NFL level defenders. People above compared him to DK Metcalf but Metcalf is a monster against press-man. He doesn't let defenders put a hand on him... he just overwhelms them with physicality and when they don't try to jam him, he is fast enough to outrun them. 

     

    My prediction for him is PS in 2021. 

    • Like 3
  14. 49 minutes ago, Superman said:

     

     

    We keep hearing this, this time from someone presumably not with the Colts. I admit, I don't see it with Dayo. The tools and physicality, sure. First rounder??? I'm gonna keep watching him for sure. 

    You know I largely agree with you but to play devil's advocate... Have you seen Rousseau? (I didn't see him as 1st rounder either, but...) He got picked in the 1st by the Bills. How different as prospects are Rousseau and Dayo? I can argue Dayo actually has better tools and athleticism than Rousseau and both are raw technically, but play physically and with good motor. Who would you rather have if Dayo had a clean bill of health? 

     

     

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