stitches

March 27

Sure let's do it...

March 26

8 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

Caleb Williams not even drafted yet by the Bears and he pumped up the Bears win total to 8.5 ......impressive.

I mean they had 7 wins last season without Caleb Williams and without Keenan Allen... I think that projection is reasonable.

March 26

New kick return rules... might increase the value of kick returners a bit:

March 26

Seems like owners voted to approve new kickoff rule.

The value of kick returners might have jumped a bit after this rule... It will look something like this:

March 26

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

N'Keal Harry 2.0.

Want another wild stat...

So he's like... contested catch receiver who doesn't catch the ball?

March 26

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

Thanks for posting.

One of the first names I think about when thinking of ball skills is Keon Coleman, probably just from a couple of highlights, and he's the worst on this list. I feel like he's a third round guy.

Not 100% certain about this, but from what I remember he was another of the PFF GAS stars. Even though he didn't test like a top speed athlete, he was clocked the fastest on the gauntlet drill and he looked really good on that. Maybe there is more to him than meets the eye, but overall I wasn't super impressed with his ability to create separation and get open. A lot of his best work is in contested catch situations.

March 26

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

Mitchell is more AJ Brown, Thomas is more CeeDee Lamb. I like them both.

Not worried about Mitchell's ball skills on a fundamental level, but I do wonder why he developed that habit in the first place. It's not just in traffic over the middle, he does it when it's not necessary, like it's instinctive, and I don't like that. But he has the obvious ability to catch with his hands.

I posted above... whatever the reason it's not really impeding him in catching the ball. He has the lowest drop rate of this class - only 1.8%...

BTW just to give context about just how good that is... here are the drop rates of other top receivers in the draft:

Keon Coleman: 7.2%

Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%

Ladd McConkey: 6.3%

Xavier Worthy: 5.4%

Malik Nabers: 4.9%

Xavier Legette: 4.8%

Rome Odunze: 4.8%

Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%

Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%

March 26

BTW Mitchell has only 1.8% drop rate. That's the lowest out of any of the receivers projected to go high in the draft.

March 26

Just now, Superman said:

I'm Thomas over Mitchell. His breakaway speed is mesmerizing, and Mitchell's habit of body catching is a slight downgrade for me (not huge, Mitchell's hands are fine, and he uses his catch radius often). But I wouldn't complain about a trade back that yields Mitchell later in the first.

I think I like Mitchell as a potential X receiver more. And I like Thomas as a downfield threat more... I think Mitchell has higher upside honestly. I saw some body catches too and was worried initially.. but then the more I watched the more impressive catches outside of his frame and on jump balls I saw. I don't think I worry about his ball skills at all.

March 26

52 minutes ago, Superman said:

Bingo.

I could see Quinyon Mitchell being an option, given his vertical and speed, and especially his film. He's a great fit for our scheme.

But I think the Colts value strategy is pretty obvious. I think a corner prospect would have to check all of Ballard's boxes, and be a standout on film, to get drafted by the Colts at #15. And even then, we'd probably have to see that guy as the clear best prospect on the board, and that's not likely this year. There are too many good OL/DL prospects that will get pushed down 3-4 spots because of how top heavy it looks at QB and WR.

By the way, I think the same logic applies at WR, which is why I've said I don't think we'll draft a WR at #15. But I think that's more likely than a corner.

I think I'm team "trade down and pick AD Mitchell". For me Mitchell and Brian Thomas are very close and if you can have Mitchell at 25-28 or thereabout and add another 2nd rounder or a couple of thirds... I'd be very tempted to do something like this. Then use the extra pick to address the holes in our defense... McKinstry or Tampa with one of the seconds... Edgerrin Cooper with another day 2 pick... Kneeland 3d day 2 pick...

March 26

1 minute ago, IinD said:

15-2... We lose on a couple 50 yard game winners, it happens..

Ballard SMH. Didn't reinforce special teams and we lose 2 games because of it. :facepalm:

March 25

Just now, PRnum1 said:

Really ? Let's take a look at McConkey going against one of the best defenses in college football Florida State

https://www.espn.co.uk/video/clip?id=39211513

I loved most of McConkey's film I watched... until I put the Alabama tape on. Both Arnold and McKinstry kinda of... manhandled him. I guess this is the biggest worry with him - his physicality and surviving first contact on press-coverage.

Here's a hot take... I think I like Ricky Pearsall better than McConkey and I still do like McConkey too...

March 25

7 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

Mcconkey had a RAS of 9.4

So why is he not on the list ?

And let's not forget that Puca Nacua had a RAS of 5.0.

Ballard wouldn't have touched him with a 10 foot pole.

Some guys like Puca and Mcconkey just know how to play football.

Forget about RAS and GAS scores

RAS is based on their testing at the combine and pro days. GAS is supposed to be PFFs attempt to quantify in-game functional athleticism. Right now it's proprietary and a black box so we don't know exactly how they get to their numbers, but despite Nacua having low RAS, PFF's GAS score put him among the top of receivers. And this was before he became a sensation in the league. They might have something there... I guess we will see in the future how this thing goes.

March 25

Just now, Superman said:

Yeah, Flowers isn't 31, and he's not carrying 300+ pounds. But he also has to run 50+ yards every play, and needs to cut and jump. Functional recovery shouldn't be a problem. Whether he can reach his former level of athleticism remains to be seen. But we have a lot of recent examples of guys getting back to 100% or close to it, and in less than a year.

Don't quote me on that but from what I remember I think there were some studies that showed that the thing that suffers most after recovery from Achilles tear is explosiveness. :dunno:

March 25

1 minute ago, Superman said:

Nice. I just looked earlier today and didn't see any results. Those are good numbers, at an increased weight. I'm a little skeptical because of the setting...

I just ran the calculator, if we use the 259 weight from the Combine, his RAS is 9.34. If we use the pro day weight of 267, it goes up to 9.58. We're looking at more of a Ballard type of prospect now. Still moderate length and explosiveness, but I like the three cone.

Yeah, I added the RAS with the agility scores above. 9.30...

March 25

6 hours ago, Superman said:

I'd like to see what this looks like over the last 3-4 years. It seems like players are coming back faster from Achilles injuries. When we signed Fisher, I was very bearish on his ability to be ready early in the season, pointing to this specific study. Fisher got hurt in the conference championship, and I think he only missed the first two games of the next season, so eight months? I think his lateral movement suffered, but for such a big person to recover from an Achilles in that short time frame is super impressive, and it indicates that the procedures and protocols have improved in recent years. There have been other players who have recovered quickly as well.

Not predicting anything for Flowers, just saying I think it's possible the recovery times for Achilles injuries has trended shorter since 2018 when this study was done.

Also, keep in mind that in general rehab and recovery for younger players on average has better outcomes.

March 25

Yah, I thought it was reasonable at this stage. Might change my tune by start of the season and when I see how AR is progressing...

March 25

@Superman I found Latu's 3cone and shuttle from his pro day:

It seems like he weighed 8 pounds heavier than at the combine. The 3cone is actually pretty good.

RAS with the agility scores:

March 25

AFC South Lines:

Colts 8.5

Texans 9.5

Jaguars 8.5

Titans 5.5

Thoughts?

March 25

9 minutes ago, Superman said:

With poor agility numbers...

I really think three cone and shuttle are undervalued, and it looks like none of the edge guys did them this year.

Agreed. Wish we had more of those numbers. A grand total of FIVE pass-rushers did the 3cone 6 did the shuttle...

BTW... look at those numbers for Marshawn Kneeland:

- 3 cone = 7.02

- shuttle = 4.18

He did that at 6'3" 267lbs... 34+ inch arms too...

He's projected as a 2nd-3d rounder... I wouldn't be shocked if he was a Ballard guy.

March 25

March 25

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

In the first round?

I think Latu is the best pass rusher. My concerns are his health (far and away the biggest concern, which also relates to his age), and his length. I also wonder if he's strong enough to hold the edge in the NFL. It's really all about the medicals. I know I blasted his RAS score, but that's not because I don't like him, I just think if he did the agility testing that score would drop.

Chop Robinson and Dallas Turner have the highest upside, IMO. I don't think Turner is a great scheme fit, especially against the run. Still haven't gone back to rewatch him, though.

Verse is kind of a mess, but he's tenacious and strong.

I don't think I'd have a huge problem with any of them at #15, but Verse is my least favorite.

I think Verse is the one that probably fits best what Ballard likes. :woah: He has length and explosiveness... if there is two traits that Ballard loves in his linemen it's those two and apart from Turner, who as you say might not be scheme fit, he probably is the best of all of them at those things.

March 25

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

I have no opinion on the GAS stuff. Proprietary metrics that are only published sparingly have no value to me.

As for his pass rush, he just looks like he knows what he's doing. He's strong and balanced, great hand usage, good great motor.

If you had to pick one pass rusher from this draft for the Colts who would it be? Chop Robinson?

March 25

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

Regarding RAS, I don't like his testing. It's basically 'he's tall and ran a good 40.' No agility numbers, bad explosive numbers, no bench press, and even his 40 should be influenced by his low end weight. He also doesn't have impressive length, although that's not a RAS metric.

I'd give him a RAS incomplete. You said he doesn't look like an elite athlete, and I agree. He ran a good 40, and that's it.

He's definitely well refined technically, his hand usage is super impressive. Can't argue with the production, either. But I think his RAS score needs to be contextualized.

Yah... I agree he doesn't look explosive or super fast on tape... but he doesn't look slow either. He kind of looks like... he's playing at his own pace and it doesn't look like it's hindering his pass-rush.

I know we don't have access to PFF's GAS numbers and their methodology about it, but what do you make of those scores? It seems like it's their proprietary in-game athleticism score, that is not public but is available for the teams that subscribe to their services(all of them).

(From what I've heard in their podcasts - those gas numbers are for every player they have numbers for(including players that never make the NFL) and that most of the players that make the NFL have scores above 80. I think they said in one of their podcasts that a lot of the elite players in the league had GAS in the high 90s. )

March 25

My thought of the day: I think I want Laiatu Latu if we are going to be going for DE in the 1st. He will be my EDGE1 in this draft. Just.. .the more I watch of him and the other EDGEs ... the more I just cannot ignore how skilled he is. I am not sure I've seen this refined of a pass-rusher recently. It's almost like he's playing completely different game than any of the other EDGEs in this draft. And then he went on and tested above 9 RAS... like WHAT? Today I heard another metric in PFF's podcast... there's this in-game athleticism score(GAS) they have. And they have him measured at 97.1 out 100 in 2022 and 99.7 in 2023!!! They have him as an elite functional athlete, even though he doesn't look like it at first sight. And then the final nail - even production-wise he's the best pass-rusher in the draft... has 27 sacks last 2 years... 62 pressures this year, 65 last year... 21.5 FTLs this year, 12.5 last year... those are insane numbers. Those are better numbers than many of the EDGEs that have been drafted in the top 5(like the Bosas, like ... even Myles Garrett) don't hit...

If our doctors clear him medically... I think I'd be ecstatic to get him at 15.

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