Jump to content
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum

stitches

Senior Member
  • Content Count

    9,203
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    62

Posts posted by stitches

  1. 14 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

    I am just not ready to say this was "a great move" for the Titans because they just lost a very good WR who was also a deep threat for them. A move of serious need no doubt and a good move, I will buy that. Of course all-time Julio is on another tier than Davis but I am talking now. That is like with Wentz, I have many in here telling me that he will be great. I am not buying that yet either and I love the Colts, I can see good but Rivers was good was last year. Moss IMO is a top 3 WR of all-time, I have Rice and Marvin as my other 2, I bring that up because Moss is arguably the GOAT, Julio isn't, JMO. Moss was also still in his prime/tail end of his prime (30 years old) when he went to the Pats and had Tom Brady throwing him the ball. Julio isn't old but 32 is really cutting it close for most WR's.

     

    The problem is... Julio has never been anything short of spectacular. Even last year if you actually watch him play, he was as good as he's ever been. When I watch him I don't see any drop in shape, he still is fast as hell, he still gets open, his routes and hands are still great. His only limitations are his injuries. With Wentz there is a legitimate reason to worry because he was very clearly horrible last year and without having any injury at the time. In other words - I don't see any reason to think Julio won't be great as long as he's healthy and on the field. 

  2. 1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

    With @Moosejawcoltlogic of thinking he would've never re-signed Ray Lewis or actually drafted him because he was a MLB and he ended up the greatest MLB of all-time. He would've let Ray walk and drafted or signed a DE or a CB lol. I am just going by how he is posting and the logic he is throwing out. There are so many outliers in sports and some of these people that put just position value or stats over everything are not looking at the whole picture. Leonard and Nelson are both outliers but  you will never convince him or a few of others of that. Lets just be glad Ballard is running the team.

     

    I will change the subject a bit and move to the Titans signing Julio Jones and how a few in here say "that was a great move" @stitches. For the stat people here is something to ponder on, you do realize the Titans let Corey Davis walk which was a horrible move and they replaced him with a much older Julio Jones.

     

    Last season stats:

    Davis 14 GMS, 65 catches, 15.1 avg per catch - same deep threat, 5 TD's

    Jones 9 GMS, 51 catches, 15.1 avg per catch - same deep threat, 3 TD's

     

    -Julio played in 5 less games but stat wise both averaged 15.1 a catch and had Jones played in 14 games he would've had roughly about the same amount of catches, yards, and TD's that Davis had more than likely. It would be close, Jones may have had a few more catches in 14 GMS but it would be close. The Titans really didn't improve, they just filled a serious need so it was a 'good move'. Now if this had been Jones from 3 or 4 years ago than I would agree with the "great move part". Jones wasn't any better than Davis was last year and he was injured and I am surprised none of you stat guys have brought this up?? 

     

    Why not just re-sign Davis who is only 26 years old instead of bringing in a guy that will be 33 years old after the season and will probably give you the same production that Davis would but only for a year or 2. Keyshawn Johnson brought up this exact same point on ESPN, he thinks they should've just re-signed Davis who has at least 5 more good-great years left.

    Raw counting stats don't tell the full story. For example, it doesn't tell how each of them was used. It doesn't tell that one was a no. 1 option and the other one was no. 2 option. It doesn't tell how each of them was winning and how sustainable it is. It doesn't tell you that one has been doing that or better for 10 years and the other one just had his best year of his career for those stats. And this is not to diminish Corey Davis - I personally was the biggest proponent for the Colts going for him in FA on this forum. I thought he had a great breakout season. I just think Julio is in another tier altogether. I hope you are right and he's on the downside of his career rather than us getting another late career Randy Moss with a conference(in this case division) rival, because if he is what I think he is, we will be in a world of hurt. 

    • Like 1
  3. 17 hours ago, Shive said:

    While the trade adds a lot of firepower to the Titans' offensive skill group, I think how much this trade means will be largely dictated by 2 factors:

     

    - QB Tannehill: He's one of the best QB's in the league when the PA game is working well, but it was proven that if the run game gets stifled and doesn't open up the PA, he's fairly mediocre. He has a very good deep ball as well, but again, if the PA isn't working he's nowhere near as effective.

    PA and RPO success are NOT dependant on run game success. This is a myth that continues to be propagated by NFL people(including our coach), but the data does not agree. PA and RPO work because of the threat of the run game, not because of the success of the run game. 

    Quote

    - OC Todd Downing: He has a pretty great background as a QB coach (largely credited for Derek Carr's best seasons), but when elevated to OC of the Raiders, their offensive production plummeted. He's had a few stints since then and was the Titans' TE coach last season, so he has familiarity with Arthur Smith's system, but it remains to be seen if he can have the same success with the same offense. It kind of makes me think of ATL's offense when Kyle Shanahan left. They brought back almost the exact same offensive players, brought in a new OC and saw their offensive performance nosedive. A bad OC can definitely take a talented offense and run it into the ground.

    Yeah, it would be interesting to see what type of offense their new OC will run. With them getting Julio... I even more prefer them sticking with Derrick Henry as the keystone and workhorse of their offense. Julio had 12 yards per target last year. This is freaking bonkers. Notice, this is per target, not per catch... 12 !!! Per TARGET!!! No idea what people are thinking when comparing him to Andre Johnson when he came to us. If Julio is healthy he's a top 5 receiver in the league... If not the best still.

    • Like 4
  4. Just for the record - I think this is a great move by the Titans. If they can keep Julio healthy, they have quite possibly the best 1-2 WR punch combined with the best RB in the leauge. They will have a very potent offense. If their defense is even average, IMO the Titans are clearcut favorite in our division. 

    • Like 4
  5. As far as I remember there were leaks in the media a day or two before the draft about Darrisaw undergoing core muscle surgery after the season. I wondered if this would drop his stock and it's possible it did. This was also supposed to be a quick recovery and the fact that he's still not ready to participate in on field activities might be a bit worrying. 

     

    With that said, if he recovers and plays well, nobody will care that he missed OTAs in his rookie year. Especially 1st round pick are a long-term investment. 

     

    I'm more than happy with who we got, without having to put him against players we didn't pick. The worth of Paye's pick will be decided on his own merrits and play. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2
  6. 1. Biggest jump - like with the offensive side, I'm looking at young players with potential, I'm looking at players who had a down year last year and I'm looking at players who have actually shown they can do it before. One name is staring right at me and covers all of those criteria - Kemoko Turay. He was one of the highest ranked DEs before he got injured. Rock Ya-Sin is another option, simply because he starts off from such a low point... chances are he will be better. Same with Bobby Okereke... Isaac Rochell ... Ben Banogu... So for me it ends up between Turay and Okereke. Those are the ones I believe in the most. And I'm going Turay here.

     

    2. Biggest drop - CBs are notoriously volatile year to year in PFFs grading so my mind immediately goes there - TJ Carrie, Xavier Rhodes, Isaiah Rodgers are all good candidates IMO. Marvell Tell... you didn't add him in the poll, but he's another one(67.6 grade from 2019). Since Isaiah Rodgers has the least experience it feels like his grade is the most volatile too so... I will pick him, but I don't feel great about it. 

     

    3. Kwity Paye. My favorite pick. I think he is solid enough in run defense and has the physical ability to make some plays in pass-rush to warrant a solid grade. Shawn Davis is another good option. Seems like the safeties in our system automatically grade pretty well from the jump. Still... Kwity... 

  7. 1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

    Ultimately you may be right, but.....

     

    he had one injury filled year and a QB that was getting clobbered

     

    He had a great 2019 season.... better than anything that we have at TE by a large factor

     

     

    I still think the guy can play

     

    I guess we will see this coming year. I am not a believer in him anymore. 

     

    Quote

     

    Are you currently 100% happy with our recievers / TE?

    No, I think we have a bottom 10 receiving corps in the league... unless multiple of our young guys take serious steps forward. 

     

    Quote

    I think TE is a glaring hole to this PARTICULAR offense

    Agree, especially the receiving part of the TE group... again... with Kylen Granson evaluation pending. 

     

    Quote

    I like Julio, I do.....  I just think its a pipe dream to get the guy, with our current front office, AND

    to not think there is ANY risk with Julio, really isnt looking at it right

     

    Just my opionion

     

    Oh, I absolutely agree with that. I don't think Ballard is very likely to trade for a receiver in his 30s. But if I had to choose to trade for one, I'm trading for Julio and it's not particularly close including draft compensation and contract considerations. I don't mind us trading for a top receiver, which I think Julio is. I think he's worth it. I don't think Ertz is worth giving up anything of value for.   

    • Like 2
  8. 1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

    I do agree that Julio would probably be a bigger impact than Ertz for this year

     

    But as a counter, I think that you might see Ertz contribute for 3-4 years, vs Julio for 1-2 years

     

    IMHO it would be MUCH easier to fit the 5 pending contracts with Leonard, Smith, Fisher 2022, Hines, and  Nelson, if we dont tie up 30 plus Million (two year contract still in force) with Julio.

     

    One or two of those 5 Colts FA (to be) would probably have to walk

     

     

    I disagree completely. I think Ertz is already shot or close to it. I haven't seen anything suggesting Julio is. When he's healthy, Julio is still a top receiver. Ertz has already shown serious signs of slowing down and he's not getting any younger or sprier. I have no idea what he would look like next year, let alone in 3-4 years. I still don't get why Colts fans are so eager to get him. Both MAC and Doyle are currently better TEs than Ertz. I wouldn't pay any draft capital for him and if he's available as a FA I wouldn't give him anything more than a vet minimum as a depth/injury insurance piece. 

    • Haha 1
    • Confused 1
  9. 1. Biggest jump in rating.... I think the best candidates cover some of the following criteria - young and unproven but with potential and/or had a down year last year and/or has already done it in the past. I feel like Wentz neatly fits at least 2 of them. Same with Pittman... Those are the two top candidates for me. I personally vote Wentz because we've seen him be very good before and if anything last year was the outlier in his performances. Sneaky candidate - Sam Tevi. Simply because he's starts from such a low level... it's quite possible he jumps like 15-20 points in grade and even if still not enough to qualify as amazing, he could be solid next to Q and with a playcaller who's likely to protect him. Final vote from me - Carson Wentz

     

    2. Biggest drop in rating... injury... aging... uncharacteristically high grade in previous year. Those are the things I'm looking at here and Eric Fisher seems like a good candidate. Can Jack Doyle completely fall off the map? Not sure... I guess my final vote is Eric Fisher - he starts from the high level(grade) and has potential to experience drop in shape because of injury. 

     

    3. Highest rated rookie - Kylen Granson... has the highest chance to actually play. Plays position and style that fits well what Reich and Wentz like to target. Sneaky candidate Deon Jackson if he makes the team... he will run behind a good OL, which is great for the type of one cut but fast back he is. 

  10. 1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

    A reminder....
     

    Each player is graded on every play, every week, three different times.   And each time is by a different person who doesn’t know what the other evaluators have graded. 


    I think that’s a level of protection that I think is pretty safe for all parties concerned.  It doesn’t mean they’re always right.  But I do think when they’re off on NFL game player evaluations they’re typically not off by much. 
     

    Just my two cents.....

    Yeah, I don't really believe it happens, but that's one possible bias they might have, even if they are not doing it consciously. We've seen them grade players like Baker Mayfield really low when he was struggling and he was their guy in the draft. We've seen Mahomes graded super high and he was ranked in the 20s in their draft board. We've seen Leonard grade consistently well for them and he wasn't in their top 250 in that draft. I think they have relatively good safeguards and they do work with teams in the league to constantly improve their grading. I've heard they do meetings with league coaches and FO executives and they review certain types of plays that might be controversial and get their input about whether this player or that player should be responsible for a breakdown or a good play, etc. 

     

    What I would absolutely love to see from them is... give the teams a chance to grade their own players and see how much the grades differ from their own. Coaches probably have too much work to do during the season, but off-season it would be amazing to see a coach grade the same players using the same system with the knowledge of what the playcall was. It will give us an idea about areas where PFF and NFL differ in their evaluation of the impact of the play... and it will give us an idea about just how much PFF misses (or doesn't miss) from not knowing the specific playcalls and assignments. I wonder if they've thought about doing something like this. 

  11. 13 minutes ago, Superman said:

     

    Just the fact that they're human, making subjective judgments of other humans. I doubt that explicit bias is a problem, but there are other biases that could influence their grades, in a number of ways.

    What's an example of a bias you are worried about impacting their grading? 

     

    (the one I can think of is - them having bias based on their college evaluations - being biased towards giving better grades to players they liked in college and worse grades to players they didn't like in college... I guess it's possible) 

  12. 23 minutes ago, Superman said:

     

    The problem for me is we don't have the answers to those questions. We don't know that PFF applies these standards consistently, and because of the human element, there's definitely room for bias.

     

    Ultimately, that's PFF's info, which they won't share, and that's fine. But those questions remain, for me.

    Do you have any reason to think they don't apply those standards consistently? AFAIK their grades are done by multiple graders that serve as a self-correcting mechanism. Also, keep in mind that ALL 32 teams are their clients so there must be that additional incentive for them to do the best job they can rather than give in to biases. 

  13. 2 hours ago, DougDew said:

    I'm sure that professional athletes have a different work schedule than civilians.  And in their case, running, lifting, keeping in shape is working.  But the guy is getting paid regardless. 

     

    I would think that even an athlete is expected to put in an 8 hour day....EVERY day.....to earn his compensation.  Civilians do (at least they used to before 2020), so why shouldn't athletes?

     

    The NFLPA seems to make it a risk to work out on your own, I get that, but I would think that an athlete with a proper work ethic would show up to work any time the team opened the facilities/schedule to allow the players to do the work.

     

    What else would he be doing with his time this week, playing Fortnite?

     

    Maybe he and a few others are just normal and a lot of his peers are lazy, so by comparison he looks special?

    Different professions have different working schedules. Some work daily shifts, some work 24 hour shifts followed by 3-4 days of rest, some work and rest seasonally.... some work according to an agreement their union has worked out with the company they work for(NFL players loosely fit into that description). In this case, those sessions are voluntary. Their pay does not depend on that work. A more appropriate example that's closer analogy would be if you work 9-to-5 work schedule Monday to Friday, if your boss held additional work sessions on Saturdays and Sundays and you showed up for those not expecting extra pay for those.

     

    For the future, BTW it would be interesting if teams start tying some bonuses to showing up to those voluntary sessions in the summer. I'm a Utah Jazz fan and the Jazz actually incentivize players to work in Utah in the summers by tying some part of their bonuses to working with Jazz staff in SLC during the summers. 

    • Like 1
  14. 3 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

    This is crazy. All the players have gone home from OTA. Rookies are still working this week. Carson is out there today working with the rookies. If that doesn’t say hard work I don’t know what does. This is from pictures today the colts put up.

    0A4366E8-3DBE-4F20-87DE-A59EE68F8705.jpeg

    Pittman might be right. He's on a mission. No idea if he really feels like doing it or he's doing it out of spite for Philly and their media and trying to prove them wrong... but this is not exactly normal. Either way... good to see and hopefully it translates on the field in September. 

    • Like 7
  15. 12 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

     

    But are they look at data/statistics? They're generating it by subjective grading rather than empirical measurement. Absolutely semantics BTW.

    A lot of it is subjective, but that's not a problem for me as long as it's applied consistently accross their system. For example... what is a contested catch? Does the CB have to be 1 feet away or half a foot away? Or does he need to be draped all over the receiver? A lot of stats require a human to make a determination about how to count the stat. Another example - even the simplest of things - the receiver catches the ball... his feet are at the 40 yard line but his hands are at the 41 yard line. Where do you put that catch for the purposes of air yards and similar stats? It's subjective, whatever the criteria is if it's consistently applied... it doesn't really matter - over long enough sample things will even out.

    • Like 1
  16. 14 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

     

    I was mulling over reading this can you even call what PFF do analytics? It's a another word that gets badly misused (so is AI!). I mean PFF is systematically grading film, not so much systematically analysing data points as such. 

     

    Let's put it another way. posters are quite happy to have trust and faith in the FO scouting team... who watch film and grade prospects in a systematic way weighted by certain aspects they deem more important to positive outcomes. 

    I guess it depends on what you consider analytics. To me it's just some sort of information collected/calculated in a way that can be useful for decisionmakers. In a way their grading is analytics, but it's very much a product of direct observation and analysis of what's happening on the plays. It's a very rudimentary type of analytics, even though it's incredibly time and resources consuming. 

     

    They do some advanced analytics too where they do projections(for player performance and for team performance), they have translation models(for example - what translates best from college to the NFL), etc. They have very useful stats that not many others have, but again, most of those are product of direct observation of what's happening and just keeping track, they just put a number on it - for example, I can say Jonathan Taylor is explosive RB based on me watching him, but they can put a number on it - they can tell you how many explosive plays he had last year and how it compared to other RBs, etc. 

  17. 1 hour ago, Wentzszn said:

    Analytics are all good and they can serve as a tool. But it isn’t the end all be all of how good a player is. 

    Would you be shocked if I told you huge part of what PFF does is actually WATCH every single snap of every single player and grading their performance on every single snap? What people don't seem to understand is that those PFF grades are not some numbers that a computer spits out at them, but is calculated based on actual people watching the players and giving them grades on every play. In other words it's just... standardized and systemized version of the "eye test".

    • Like 6
  18. 4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

     

    Let's start with Leonard's stats. And keep in mind Leonard plays WILL in a 4-3, but mostly a 4-2 (we're in nickel mostly), so most would say he naturally gets more opportunity for Ts. At minimum, different positions so should be looked at in that context.

     

    I've bolded blue for best (out of the 4 in question)

     

    • Leonard - 14 games
      • Tackles: 9.4 pg
      • INTs: 0
      • Passer Rating Allowed: 109.2
      • Completion % allowed: 81.4% (12th worst in the league in all positions)
      • TDs given up 3 (0.21 pg)
      • Sacks: 3 (0.21 pg)
      • TFL's: 7 (0.5 pg)
      • Forced Fumbles: 3 (0.21 pg)
      • Missed T%: 5%
      • Note: Very solid vs the run, but one could say plain bad vs the pass. His completions % allowed was 12 highest in the league (all positions). 
    • Eric Kendricks (plays MIKE in a 4-3) 11 games
      • Tackles: 9.7 pg
      • INTs: 0
      • Passer Rating Allowed: 58.8 (top 10 all positions)
      • Completion % allowed: 70.7
      • TDs given up: 0
      • Sacks: 0
      • TFL's: 4 (0.36 pg)
      • Forced Fumbles: 0
      • Missed T%: 7%
      • Note: You can't argue with Kendricks at all IMO. Highest Ts per game of the 4 we're comparing, and also top 10 in pass D in the NFL of all positions including DBs. 
    • Lavonte David (plays RIL in a 3-4) 16 games
      • Tackles: 7.3 pg
      • INTs: 1 (0.06 pg)
      • Passer Rating Allowed: 93.4
      • Completion % allowed: 75%
      • TDs given up: 4 (0.25 pg)
      • Sacks: 1.5 (0.09 pg)
      • TFL's: 12 (0.75 pg)
      • Forced Fumbles: 3 (0.19 pg)
      • Missed T%: 7.915%
      • Note: Great combined TFL/sack stats per game, and better pass D stats than Leonard.
    • Demario Davis (plays WILL in a 4-3) 16 games
      • Tackles: 7.4
      • INTs: 0
      • Passer Rating Allowed: 106.3
      • Completion % allowed: 70.4%
      • TDs given up: 4 (0.25 pg)
      • Sacks: 4 (0.25 pg)
      • TFL's: 10 (0.63 pg)
      • Forced Fumbles: 0
      • Missed T%: 7% 
      • Note: Has the highest combined # of sacks and TFLs per game last year. Also the lowest missed T% over the last 2 years. Down year for him, so perhaps he's getting a nod for 2019 as well. Even in a down year, his pass D was still a bit better than Leonards.

    Conclusion - Sure there could be debate, but doesn't appear that PFF is smoking anything after looking at the stats for context.

    Few people watch games critically with the goal of objective evaluation of what happens in every possession with every single player(what PFF actually does) (this is not a knock on those people - to a significant degree I can count myself in that group too - my goal when I watch the Colts is to have fun and enjoy rooting for my team). Even fewer have watched every snap of every single player of every other team in the league critically with the goal of objective evaluation. PFF are not perfect but they have a system that's more objective and consistent than anything you can find on almost any football forum on the internet(this one included). And it's not even close! 

    • Like 1
  19. 1 hour ago, Wentzszn said:

    Would be crazy if Holden beat Tevi.

    Holden played better than Tevi in limited snaps last year. It's probably pretty open competition for all of them for the starting spot week 1 if Fisher is not back. I wouldn't be surprised if any of them wins it. 

     

    I wonder what happened with Carter O'Donnell? He was one of our highest paid UDFAs last year and I thought he had promising profile, we kept him on practice squad all year if I'm not mistaken. Wonder how he's developing... 

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...