stitches
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Posts posted by stitches
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I think we trade back unless a specific player or two are there for us to take at 15.
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1 hour ago, G8R said:
Good insight. The thing that’s concerning to me is with elite speed and, to use your words, being shifty, a big chunk of his production is while essentially standing still. To me that screams he’s an awful route runner. I haven’t watched much of him other than a game or two but given the stats you gave, he was either told to go long or catch a sideways pass. IMO good to great route running is a bigger and better advantage than straight line speed.
I disagree that he's an awful route runner. In fact... I think I posted a graph the other day with the separation and he's the WRs that creates most separation on his routes in this draft class...
IMO the bigger problems with him are his inability to beat press-man when they manage to get their hands on him(it's why you will have to create some free releases for him(again... the motion will be needed, play him at Z and slot rather than X, etc). And his second problem is... contested catches... but that's kind of expected when you consider his size... he won't be contested catch receiver, he will need to be a receiver who wins on the field.
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16 minutes ago, Superman said:
I don't think this is that big of a deal. There are some circumstances that make it seem like a different approach, but really it's not.
First, the Colts have always made an effort to sign their own. They just usually sign them before they reach free agency. Using Spotrac's list, those players -- Nelson, Leonard, Smith, Moore, Grover, Speed, Franklin, JT, etc. -- don't factor into to the breakdown of how much a team has spent in free agency, because they sign before their contracts expire. It doesn't even include Pittman because they tagged him.
Second, the Colts re-signed several free agent players to third contracts -- Grover, Moore, Rigo Sanchez, Lewis (4th, but that's because of injuries), etc. Most of them were players developed by the Colts, who had previously signed extensions before their rookie contracts expired.
I think it's as simple as the Colts having a lot of their core hitting free agency at the same time, and rather than extending them before they expired like they have historically, they let most of them play out their contracts in 2023.
And that's kind of what they signaled they would do last offseason. Everyone was asking about JT and Pittman, and Ballard indicated that they wanted to see how the team would respond to the ugly 2022 season, with a new coaching staff, etc. But besides JT and Pittman, there was Moore, Grover, Lewis, Blackmon, Rigo, Pinter, etc., all players with considerable roles on the team that were expiring as well.
If there's any change in approach, it's not keeping their own. It's allowing their own to hit free agency in the first place. And judging from the Buckner extension today, I'd say the standard will still be to re-sign their own players before letting them hit the market, and 2023 was an aberration due the circumstances.
Good point about usually re-signing/extending them before they hit FA and Ballard wanting to wait and see how things go this year after the bad 2022...
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What a steal...
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Bears draft is done. What do you guys think about it?
1. Caleb Williams, QB, USC
9. Laiatu Latu UCLA EDGE
75. Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
122. Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington
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1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:
Considering it seems like Wayne was the guy who was all in on Downs last year, I would play close attention to the pro days that he goes to.
I think he was there at Texas and LSU pro days. Steichen and JBC were there at the Texas one too...
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36 minutes ago, w87r said:
I'll be quick to come back and own it if I'm wrong. (I doubt it)
You don't restructure expiring contracts, you extend them
Either way, at this point the important thing is the extension is done, the details are largely for bookkeeping purposes. I don't really expect us to go after any of the big names either in FA or in trade at this point.
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26 minutes ago, richard pallo said:
I think you could be missing the point. Before this year the average number of our own FA retained was 2 over the last four years. This year it was 10. That’s the point he was making.
Yeah, that is somewhat notable, but it's probably largely coincidental and product of who was up for new contract this year and the state of the roster and payroll. I guess we will see in future year if there really is any change in approach... either way huge majority of those deals are for non-key players.
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12 minutes ago, w87r said:
Why would you doubt it?
His cap hit this year will probably drop $3-$5m
Because Ballard doesn't seem to like pushing money into the future, unless it's absolutely required... which at this moment doesn't seem to be the case.
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16 hours ago, adubb84 said:
He wants to play HERE. A man can dream yeah?
MHJ: Do you hear me Mr. Irsay? Chris? Anybody here in Indy? Please save me from having to play for the Cardinals... or oh damn... god forbid... the... ewwwwwwwww...
Patriots..
If Ballard somehow manages to do this... I swear I will stop moaning about him neglecting the receiving weapons for at least... 2 years...
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Nice. Looks like a reasonable deal. Interesting to see how they structured it and whether they freed any money for this year?(I doubt it)
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On 4/14/2024 at 5:18 AM, John Hammonds said:
I know, this is really weird. My contributing to a thread that I've already complained about twice.
But -- I'm an analyst by trade. And I was looking at a really peculiar thing. Chris Ballard did an incredible turnabout this year, when it comes to free agents. Not saying it's good. Or that it's better. But that it's DIFFERENT. Very Different.
Here's some compiled yearly Free Agent stats from Sportrac:
2020
Free agents signed from other teams: 8 agents for $34.5mm / $4.3mm per year / highest: QB Rivers $25mm 1 yr
Free agents to other teams: 10 agents for $26.2mm / $2.4mm per year / highest: TE Ebron $12mm 1 yr / 1 of 10 drafted by Colts
Free agents retained: 2 agents for $2.0mm / $1.0mm per year / highest: OT Clark $1.2mm 1 yr / 1 of 2 drafted by Colts
2021
Free agents signed from other teams: 12 agents for $22.2mm / $1.8mm per year / highest: OT Fisher $8.4mm 1 yr
Free agents to other teams: 9 agents for $36.8mm / $3.3mm per year / highest: DE Autry $21.5mm 3 yr / 3 of 9 drafted by Colts
Free agents retained: 5 agents for $16.0mm / $3.2mm per year / highest: WR Hilton $8mm 1 yr / 2 of 5 drafted by Colts
2022
Free agents signed from other teams: 14 agents for $42.2mm / $2.7mm per year / highest: CB Gilmore $22mm 2 yr
Free agents to other teams: 14 agents for $54.5mm / $2.7mm per year / highest: OG Glowinski $18.3 3 yr / 3 of 14 drafted by Colts
Free agents retained: NONE
2023
Free agents signed from other teams: 14 agents for $64.4mm / $3.4mm per year / highest: DE Ebukam $24mm 3 yr
Free agents to other teams: 13 agents for $71.7mm / $4.3mm per year / highest: LB Okereke $40mm 4 yr / 4 of 13 drafted by Colts
Free agents retained: 2 agents for $15.2mm / $3.8mm per year / highest: LB Speed $8mm 2 yr / 1 of 2 drafted by Colts
2024
Free agents signed from other teams: 2 agents for $18.5mm / $6.1mm per year / highest: DT Davis $14mm 2 yr
Free agents to other teams: 5 agents for $36.8mm / $5.3mm per year / highest: QB Minshew $25mm 2 yr / 0 drafted by Colts
Free agents retained: 10 agents for $93.9mm / $6.3mm per year / highest: DT Stewart $39mm 3 yr / 4 of 10 drafted by Colts
Instead of signing free agents from other teams, and allowing our players to leave, Ballard had a 100% reversal, signing our own players the kind of money they would have gotten from other teams, and retaining them instead. This isn't just a reversal, it's a HUGE reversal. Almost as if Ballard said, "Well, the plan of not paying our own players didn't work out. Let's try retaining them all, and giving them the money they want. Let's see how this works!"
I think if you look at it a bit deeper it doesn't say that much and it's not that big of a departure. A ton of the signings in previous years come after the draft(i.e. he can still do it this year) and a lot of them are very cheap - very low average salary. So... what does that mean? IMO it means Ballard is waiting to see what he can do with the draft and then he will likely go out and fill the holes with cheap vets that in a lot of cases we don't even remember the next year. Example... Genard Avery, Chris Lammons, Kenyan Drake, Jake Martin, Amari Rodgers, Isaac Taylor-Stuart, Jalen Tabor, Breshad Perriman, AQM(back from Bears)... those were all signed last summer after the draft.
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Two more Reception Perception charts:
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1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:
Worthy is interesting because if we assume we’re not trading up for one of the big 3 receivers, then he’s the only other WR outside of BTJ that’s a day 1 field stretcher, which I think is what we’re looking for. Theres Tez Walker, but he’s a 3rd round guy and really raw.
The interesting thing with Worthy is... his Yards per reception are actually pretty low for someone like him who is supposed to be field stretcher... until you actually look at his usage. 39% of his receptions are behind the LOS!!! 39!!! He starts with negative yardage on 39% of his catches! And he still got to 13-14 yards per reception. So this is the second bit part of the way he can be used - gadget plays and screens. 21% of his plays were screens. And he's shifty and fast enough to make people miss and to gain yardage in those. I don't think we actually have a player that is great in those situations so... maybe? This is another tendency I saw while researching some of the pass-catchers this year - Steichen is departing SERIOUSLY from the Philly offense he was running - the Colts were 11th this season in % of plays with motion at the snap, while Philly has been dead last or thereabout for the last 3 season. To me this looks like he actually wants to run those types of plays... he wants to use motion... A LOT! So giving him a weapon of that type might be good... (BTW Bowers can be used in that way too... he has some insane YAC/reception ... over 8 or something).
There are a lot of things to like about Worthy, but there are also some worries. IMO you will have to create uninterrupted releases for him. He's too small to survive contact in press-man. And he doesn't play small... like... he tries to get extra yards running through people, he tries to be physical... but... even though he doesn't play small, he IS SMALL... and you can see it on every second tackle where the DBs throw him around like a rag doll. He exited at least 2 games this season after a hit/hard tackle from defender. Sometimes when I watch him, I wish he would just go down like TY used to when he felt he's about to get tackled and mangled in the process.
So if not him... I guess there are some other weapons in that mold too - Malachi Corley is one... Malik Washington. And of course the elephant in the room - Malik Nabers.
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Anybody know when Ballard's pre-draft presser is?
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Damn, I love this guy! I wish things turned out a different way ... at the very least at the end. But happy for him that he seems happy right now and happy he's helping with that charity. Both him and Chuck...
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2 hours ago, KB said:
I wonder what caused the big 3 to not grade so well on here
Might mean a lot of things, but IMO it's due to the volume of targets those top receivers get - meaning... others get targetted more when they are open, while those big time receivers get targetted all the time... both when they are open and when they are not... just my guess...
IMO that graph is more useful to identify the extremes rather than to make any conclusions about the receivers in the middle...
Extremes good - Jermaine Burton, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, AD Mitchell...
Extreme bad - Keon Coleman, Brenden Rice...
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Seems like the only info we have for top round players being on top 30 visits are - Nabers and Worthy ... and Kneeland
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Patriots..
Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)
in Colts Football
Posted
So... It sounds like the first 8 are offense and then... They are relatively evenly spread between offense and defense. Interesting...