stitches
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Posts posted by stitches
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15 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:
You wonder how many NFL hits the guy can take
I think he is an extreme liability when we run the ball as well
Brian Thomas or Latu with 15th for me
This is a legit question that the Colts should ask themselves. Worthy left 2 of the games he played this last year because of big hits by defenders. Now he didn't miss significant playing time because of it, but I think it's a reasonable question to ask, especially when you see that his instinct is actually not to slide down or go out of bounds but to fight for extra yardage.
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I was thinking a bit about what Ballard said in that clip from "Behind the Colts", about "he's not going to get much bigger". No idea if he was talking about Worthy... but if he is... he's right. Whether Worthy ends up playing at 165 or 176... this is still extremely small and light. Whether he's in the 1st percentile or 5th percentile of athlete's in weight in the league, this doesn't change the type of player and type of worries you would have about him with any significance. So... in a way, I kind of find that conversation a bit pointless. IMO the question should be - okay. he is small... and he will always be small. Can we work with that? And can we live with the risk of injury for that small of a player? And the answer can be no here... I'm not saying we necessarily need to take that risk.
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Round 1 - #15
A. Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
B. Brian Thomas, WR, LSU
C. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Round 2 - #46
A. Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
B. Marshall Kneeland, DE, Western Michigan
C. Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State
Round 3 - #82
A. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
B. Darius Robinson, DE/DT, Missouri
C. Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State
Round 4 - #117
A. Jalyx Hunt, DE, Houston Christian
B. Mason McCormick, OG, South Dakota State
C. Malik Washington, WR, Virginia
Round 5 - #151
A. Beaux Limmer, OC, Arkansas
B. Tanor Bortolini, OC, Wisconsin
C. Isaac Guerendo, RB, Louisville
Round 6 - #191
A. Decamerion Richardson, CB, Mississippi State
B. Qwan'tez Stiggers, CB, Toronto
C. Nick Gargiulo, OC, South Carolina
Round 7 - #234
A. Millard Bradford, SS, TCU
B. Mark Perry, FS, TCU
C. Dalton Tucker, OG, Marshall
BONUS: Will the Colts trade the #15 pick this year?
A: Yes, they will trade back.
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18 minutes ago, Stephen said:
Richardson accuracy on deep balls is his strength. Hence why you pair an elite deep threat in worthy.
Yeah... Richardson needs players who can separate and who can get open deep. IMO "give the inaccurate QB a contested catch receiver with large catch radius" is one of the tropes that hasn't proven to work well. Contested catches have about 50-55% success rate even with the best of contested catch receivers and with relatively accurate QBs... now if you think AR's accuracy is not good, drop that rate even more. The best way to give a relatively inaccurate QB better chance to complete passes is to give him a WR who separates and and who is open so the QB would have more of a margin for error to throw the ball a little behind or ahead or a little higher or lower than ideal. (we are not talking about uncatchable balls here... those will be uncatchable for anyone really). In that regard, one thing I would agree about is - we need WRs who have good hands and have good ball skills.
And this is ignoring that AR has indeed been pretty good with his accuracy on passes at intermediate and long range. His biggest problem coming into the league was the short stuff and he was already showing improvements in that deparment before he got injured.
And Worthy is the WR who created the most separation from anybody in this draft :
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22 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:
In a year when the Colts were in serious need of a QB and in position to draft one, Ballard came up in front of the media 3 days before the draft and straight up said something to the effect of "That guy everybody in media is talking about(Levis), we are not taking him". I don't know why you think the Colts are trying to throw us off the scent this year specifically. They are not trying to give us away the pick(thus the vagueness), but I also don't really think they are trying to mislead anybody. This usually becomes specifically apparent in retrospect after the draft when you look back at a lot of those quotes in the videos they release pre-draft... and they were talking precisely about players we ended up drafting, which they reveal in the post-draft video by extending some of those quotes(they did that with AR last year for example).
And about why people are doing it(guessing who they are talking about) - because it is fun. Nobody has the illusion that we will be right in our guesses 100% of the time... or anywhere close really... but it's still fun. And it's part of why the Colts release those videos with those quotes - to create engagement with the fanbase... part of which, and the entirety of which that 70 pages thread and whole board is about in the offseason. is to guess who the Colts might take and how they might feel about specific prospects.
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2 minutes ago, New Zealands #1 Colts Fan said:
I don't about all of you, but I was fascinated by that toaster looking apparatus on Todd's desk that looked like it had fire coming out of it.......
This looks like a humidifier with lights...
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They are arguing about Worthy I think... about his weight... one of the scouts said "that's why we have strength staff and resources"... Ballard doesn't believe he can get much bigger.... 10-12 pounds... that's pretty much in line with what you hope he will gain...
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Here it is:
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Just now, NewColtsFan said:
As if 6:36p, the video is NOT even mentioned in the front page of the website. I don’t understand why they haven’t been advertising it all day. I’m sure there’s a reason, I just don’t know what it could be?
They don't want to spill the secrets to the rest of the league... so only us here on the forum know about it and will watch it... Shhhh!
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7 minutes ago, Stephen said:
I'm not impressed with those guys they don't pass the eye test
I really like AD Mitchell's talent. He has some exceptional reps... he gets open all the time... when he actually decides to run his route to the end.
And Burton is pretty good too... he's just a headcase of some sort it seems. He's changed like 7-8 schools since high school...
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2 minutes ago, Superman said:
"I need to feel it" if the video and sound are synced ... they were watching the Senior Bowl. What did they need to feel from that game?
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Just now, jvan1973 said:
You won't get any info, that's for sure
Not anything specific... but maybe we get a vibe about some positions,,,
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Here are a few more Reception Perception charts for the WRs:
AD Mitchell:
Jermaine Burton:
Javon Baker:
Ja'Lynn Polk:
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14 minutes ago, Superman said:
I get it. But that's basically saying 'I've stuck to my principles all this time, now I want to be reckless just this once.' That's fine, when it's acknowledged. But it's all about falling in love with one prospect. And since he's not a QB, the risk is not justified.
I guess you're right, their testing and size are basically the same. But BTJ has all the explosive highlights, and Mitchell played with Quinn Ewers.
That's it. He's an extreme outlier, but at least he has a physical trait to make up for it. Bryce Young's compensating trait was supposed to be his processing, but it's not a physical trait, and it's still a projection. At least with Worthy we know he can run fast.
There's just one size comp, and he just got $25m/year, so it can work. And just like with Mitchell, his QB was a problem. You've projected him into Steichen's scheme, and I can't argue with your viewpoint there. I just don't see the proficiency from him, and while I'm adjusting my preferences with WRs, I still like to see some technical stuff.
I think you are underestimating Worthy's WR technical proficiency stuff. I think he's better route runner than given credit for. I think he has very sharp and crisp cuts in and out of his routes. I think even thought he's small, he actually plays much more phisical than his size would suggest. I posted a graph a week or so ago that showed him being the receiver with most separation in this draft. I think a ton of his problems and limitations stem from just... being small. And you will have to work around those and that's why I have him as a second rounder and not 1st... but.. yeah. If he gets jammed, he's done... if the defender is there with him at the catch point he's probably not coming away with the ball in that contested ball situation. You will have to move him across the formation, you will have to create free releases for him, you will pretty much never want to put him at X where defenders can put their hands on him before he's even made a step or two... but I think he can be really dangerous and dynamic player if you have a creative offensive coach that can use his strengths and try not to put him in compromising positions where his weaknesses are highlighted. IF we draft him, I have no doubt Steichen will have a good plan and idea about how to use him.
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19 minutes ago, Superman said:
Would you do the same for Nabers?
To some degree... but I would be willing to give up less for him and I would only do it AFTER I've lost on MHJ(so again... presumably the cost would be lower one pick later and with one elite prospect fewer on the board.
19 minutes ago, Superman said:For me, it's just against my religion, so to speak. I'm really leaning hard into this belief that falling in love with a so-called generational prospect is the best way to misappropriate draft capital. It's hard for me to value an unproven player at that level, and it's hard to justify the risk when it's not a QB. I'd love to have MHJ, but that's a lot of value... If you want to give up a third or fourth rounder to move up 3-4 spots in the first, have at it. Moving that kind of capital for one guy goes against all the principles of good drafting.
I feel the same way... in like... 99.9% of the cases. And I am absolutely with you about that not being a smart move... in like... huge majority of cases. I just think every rule has exceptions... and as long as those are super rare and you don't fool yourself that you can do that every draft... or hell, even every few drafts, it should be OK. I think this is the first time I've seriously considered supporting such a move for a non-QB here.. and I've been here for how long? 6-7 years?
19 minutes ago, Superman said:And none of that really matters if you're right.
On Mitchell, check out what I linked the other day. You might have seen it already, he has diabetes, and that probably contributes to his moodiness. Not trying to excuse it, but it might be something that's manageable, as opposed to him just being a jerk. Teams definitely have to work through that.
Interesting... haven't seen that one. Thanks
19 minutes ago, Superman said:Mitchell is more of a five-tool prospect, where BTJ has more high end explosive traits, but not as well rounded. I like them both. BTJ is more of a mid first rounder, and Mitchell probably in the 20s (maybe later, depending on how teams see the character stuff).
The thing is... what is the high end explosive trait that BTJ has and Mitchell doesn't? I will hang up and listen... Oh damn... I think I'm convincing myself to move AD above BTJ... Dammit... I think AD can be everything BTJ is... PLUS MORE. But he hasn't shown the consistency so far. So it's a bit of a projection.
19 minutes ago, Superman said:I like your tiers. I'm not a big fan of Worthy, I just can't get there with him. I thought you had him closer to BTJ/Mitchell. Same for Polk, I wanted to like him, but he's inconsistent catching the ball, and it seems like he can be erased from the gameplan by a bad matchup, so I see him as more of a slot. There are other guys that are slot prospects, and don't scratch the itch for a good outside/deep threat WR.
That's fair enough. I get the worries with Worthy and his size... it's possible it doesn't work at all(kind of like Bryce Young)... but we've seen smaller receivers in recent years be successful in the league and I think the league is going smaller and faster in certain positions. And Worthy actually has a trump card that he can rely on. The injury concern is real though...
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@Superman BTW, with Worthy... I think I love the fit with the Colts and Steichen more than I like him as a player in general, so even though I have him as a second rounder... I can absolutely see the case for the Colts trading back in the 1st and taking him in the 20s. I think he's precisely what we need and what we are missing for Steichen's offense specifically with AR.
Just imagine AR with JT in the backfield which should already be a problem for opponents... Now imagine you add Worthy in motion, this will create such huge headaches for the defense ... And I do think Steichen is actually a believer in at snap motion. He went from bottom 3 in at snap motion % in Philly's offense the last 2 years(and they ended up being dead last this year) to no. 11 with the Colts when he got his own gig. This is a huge departure and IMO it show a specific belief and specific philosophical approach we can pinpoint and Worthy is quite possibly the most dangerous player in that type of role in this draft... and add the vertical dimension he provides and we are missing and I think the fit is pretty clear.
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That's an epic feat after he just posted his draft guide last week... Here's Brugler's final mock draft. This time full 7 round mock!! 256 picks!
https://theathletic.com/5418352/2024/04/17/nfl-mock-draft-2024-full-seven-rounds-dane-brugler/
Here are his picks for the Colts:
Quote15. Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Colts go with a dynamic pass catcher at 15, especially if Bowers is still available. But Mitchell is an ideal fit, too, considering his tape, on-ball production and traits.
46. Indianapolis Colts: Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
There is a good chance the Colts get a pass catcher in Round 1. If they don’t (like in this scenario), reuniting Pearsall with Anthony Richardson in the second round makes a lot of sense. Pearsall can line up across the formation in Shane Steichen’s scheme.
82. Colts: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, S,Texas Tech
117. Colts: Tanor Bortolini, G/C, Wisconsin
151. Colts: Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, Purdue
191. Colts: Myles Cole, DL, Texas Tech
234. Colts: Tylan Grable, OT, UCF
I think I would love that draft. Some great picks within those 7 rounds.
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2 minutes ago, Superman said:
Third option is just stay at #15 and take a WR there. Which is probably what I would do.
That's another good option and I'd be OK with that too, but I'd probably be tempted by MHJ... and I know in a lot of cases it doesn't make sense mathematically... but... he's one of those players for me where I'd make an exception.
2 minutes ago, Superman said:By the way, where did you wind up on AD Mitchell? How do you stack him, Worthy, and BTJ?
There are some rumors about AD Mitchell not wowing NFL people in his meetings, about him being... for a lack of a better word - a diva... I cannot speak on that and I don't know how much of that is true and how much of that is a problem even if true. I really like him... I think purely talent-wise, he's probably more talented than BTJ, but I still have BTJ above him, just seems more consistent and reliable. I like Ricky Pearsall a lot too. And Worthy is somewhere in that range too... If I had to tier them:
---------- game changers
MHJ
Nabers
---------- great talent
Odunze
--------- second half of R1(including 15 I guess...)
BTJ
AD
-------- R2
Pearsall
Ladd
Worthy
Leggette
Burton
Polk
-------R3+
Malik Washington
Troy Franklin
Roman Wilson
...
9 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:I didnt see his arm length
Is he a Trex?
He's not but he's not super long either.
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3 minutes ago, Superman said:
Between that and the tackling, I eliminated him from consideration by the Colts a long time ago. Was just thinking whether BBZ sees him as the kind of guy who can fill the role he wants.
Yeah, I have to be honest and admit I haven't even watched a ton of him, but once I saw the arm length, just decided it's a waste of time. I can imagine some of the top CBs with arms that get close to 32"(Arnold, Mitchell, DeJean) being an exception Ballard would make, but at 30.5" it just feels very un-Ballard-like pick.
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2 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:
Eagles:
Eagles General Manager Howie Roseman has been making phone calls to get an idea of what teams picking higher than the Eagles would be looking for to swap with Philadelphia, which has the 22nd overall pick. The Eagles own two second-round picks (their own and the Saints’).
Seems to be somewhat of a consensus out there that there are 18-21 or so 1st round caliber players in this year's draft.
Very good target if Ballard is set on trading back,,,
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I was just about to do my guesses for @Dr. T 's contest, but I guess I will wait to see if I can glean anything from this episode.
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15 minutes ago, w87r said:
And now there is a new question or 2 attached.
1. Would you be mad if they made the deal?
2. Would you rather just trade for JJ if going to put big trade package together?
I'd rather trade for MHJ, but I see him as a generational prospect... something others might disagree with and reasonable people can disagree on this one. About whether I would do it... I think I said earlier in another thread that I personally would probably wait for Minny/Broncos/Raiders to trade up to 3/4 and and then try to trade up for the pick after, because I feel like this would lower the cost. BUT... in this specific hypothetical... I will wince hard... and I'd probably do it.
About why MHJ and not JJ... because the cost of MHJ is just the picks and rookie contract. The cost of JJ is the picks... +30M+ a year salary. You can do A TON with 23-24M(the difference in salary) a year for the next 4-5 years... and I think MHJ is very low risk prospect. In essence I think the difference in $$ is well worth taking the risk. Hell if worst comes to worst(MHJ is complete and total bust, that you cannot even play - not gonna happen), you can pay the 23-25M in savings for a Pittman/Ridley level receiver in the FA to soften the blow.
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20 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:
He was the 100m champion in Iowa
He ran a 4.43 forty a week after being cleared to run at his pro day.
He said that he thought he could do faster with more time
Are there faster CBs? Sure
But imho he is the best tackler in the group
DeJean IMO is fast-...ish and explosive-...ish but IMO he looks stiff on tape. That's not to say Ballard wouldn't like him. I think he fits a lot of the things Ballard likes in his corners... except for the arm length...
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26 minutes ago, w87r said:
Zach Wilson just got traded to the Broncos probably effects their 1st Rd QB plans
IMO Zach Wilson should NOT effect anybody's 1st round QB plans... he's a shot you take at rehabilitating a talented player, he's not a game changer who should influence your decisions at the top of the draft and at the top of your roster.
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Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)
in Colts Football
Posted
I don't see that happening. I think they are somewhat redundant.