stitches
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Posts posted by stitches
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1 hour ago, richard pallo said:
So green is good, yellow is average and red is bad?
On the first one is the success-rate - green=good, yellow=average, red=below average
On the second one is the usage rate of each route. It shows what routes he ran the most with similar color designation - green=above average, yellow=average, red = below average.
32 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:Sooooo...MHJ either loves or hates screens....got it lol
The second graph shows they didn't run a lot of screens for him, the first one shows on the few they ran he did well.
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Congrats to them!
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I just saw Pittman's "Reception Perception" charts... so here it goes:
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Here are some Matt Harmon "Reception Perception" charts for the top receivers:
And here's the best of them... look at this one for Rome:
According to Harmon Odunze is the first receiver he's ever charted that has completely green route tree everywhere. He runs every route and he get gets open on every single route.
BTW MHJ's chart is not as impressive, but he mentions he was doubled the most out of any receiver in this draft class and his chart is still really really good.
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Just now, VikingsFanInChennai said:
Top player = #1 draft overall pick, like some think Nabers could be drafted #1 overall. Does anyone think so?
Top wideout = some think Nabers is #1 WR of this class.
If Brugler says Nabers is "a" top player in the draft as in meaning one of the many top players, I think everybody who has seen big boards and mock drafts knows that already.
Top player in the draft doesn't automatically mean he will go no. 1 in the draft. Positional value changes things. QBs live in a completely different world. Like... remember when people were saying Quenton Nelson was the best player in his draft? But he was drafted no. 6.
Also... they are not saying that this is the prevailing opinion... just that some people in the league think that... for whatever it's worth.
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1 minute ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:
Wait... Schefter says some think Nabers is top wideout..
Brugler re-tweets and said some think Nabers is this whole draft class' Top Player?
The Draft season always gives headaches because of guys like this.
Yep. Why is this confusing?
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Just heard an insane stat about draft success of EDGE players by round on today's PFF podcast.
(since 2015)
% EDGE players who become starters:
- 1st round - 61%
- 2nd round - 25%
- 3d round - 21%
% WRs who become starters:
- 1st round - 63%
- 2nd round - 56%
- 3d round - 35%
This is a good argument for picking EDGE in R1 and delaying WR for R2... I know this has been an argument @Superman has made before(the WR part at least)... his intuition seems to have been right.
This also explains the big number of failed 2nd round EDGE picks Ballard has made. I.e. it's not just Ballard - the whole league cannot find a ton of 2nd round EDGE starters.
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For the record after considering trading up from 9, the Bears are now open to trading down from 9 too...
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8 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
With Buckner, Stewart, Davis and all the other DE’s that can kick inside when needed, why would you want the Colts to draft a player who is likely NOT to play much his rookie year? I don’t see where the playing time for Murphy comes from?
Im not saying he isn’t a good player. But when does he play?
When we trade Buckner?
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5 minutes ago, w87r said:
Definitely possible, they've been rumored to be a trade up possibility.
Seems hard to pass on 1 of those WRs after letting Allen and Williams go this off-season.
Side Bar:
That's interesting, but the Colts have been drafting a lot of high level athletes in general. I wonder if the results wouldn't be similar with different test.
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Is it possible the Chargers go for an OT at 5? Or even better - is it possible they are willing to move back? Interesting...
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13 minutes ago, chad72 said:
I am certain that MHJ would rather play with Herbert versus Murray or anyone that the Patriots trot out, and would be very happy if the Cardinals and Patriots passed on him.
IMO MHJ would love to play with AR the most!
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7 minutes ago, Superman said:
It's like no one wants to come out and say it, but it's not a radical proposition to think that Nabers is better than MHJ.
I still like MHJ better but I don't think it's radical to think Nabers is better. I think they are close... and Nabers is more fun player to watch...
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Nabers ran at LSU's pro day - 4.35...
Malik Nabers
6'0/199 lbs
4.35 40 yard dash
42" vertical
10'9" broad
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17 minutes ago, Superman said:
I've been saying this for a month. I didn't know whether we'd keep Stewart, but it doesn't really change the strength of the draft class. It's highly possible that Murphy (or Newton) is rated higher than any player at one of the positions everyone wants in the first round, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Colts drafted him.
Everyone is foaming at the mouth over corner right now, and I don't think the Colts value corner like that. Also, the corners at the top of the draft aren't great fits for the Colts preferred size profile. And I don't think the Colts value WR like that, plus it's the deepest position in this draft, IMO. You've pointed out a lot of this as well.
So yeah, get ready for the meltdown, 29 days and counting.
Murphy is intriguing.... although... he's another one that doesn't quite hit what Ballard prefers 100% - his length is not great. Look at our DTs on the roster:
- Buckner - 34 3/8"
- Stewart - 33 1/4"
- Raekwon Davis 33 7/8"
- Eric Johnson 34 1/4"
- Taven Bryan 32 3/4"
Murphy in general is very squaty and not long at all - 6' 0 1/2" with 32 3/8" arms. He would be the shortest DT on the roster and I just don't think Ballard would spend this high of a pick on someone who's that much of an outlier to what he usually likes. Newton has similar measurables so... again... not perfect fits. I don't think we go DT, but again, not because of needs or anything of the sort, but rather because I am not sure they fit what Ballard wants from the position.
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Reggie Wayne is at LSU pro day...
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7 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:
I'm a big fan of Mitchell stitches, he has the H/W/S and is a very good route runner. The route running almost has me higher on him than BTJ, because he is nearly as athletic than him. But I just wonder about the effort. Seen alot of tape of him not making really any effort at all on some plays. Just concerning for me because I really like him as a player.
Agree with you about this... there are plays where he's not the target that he seems to take off and doesn't put full effort in. It's not ideal... but in the grand scheme of things IMO it shouldn't be anywhere the top of our consideration about him. There are videos of Pittman doing something similar(taking plays off) when the play is not around him and I don't really think it's a huge deal when he does so much else at a really good level when the ball is actually going his way...
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Matt Miller, ESPN's mock from today:
I would be just here watching the meltdown if this happened ...
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That red zone reel of AD Mitchell is so nice and it's not full of contested catches... he actually gets open in really short areas of the field:
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A little more stats on the contested catches. This is the rate of contested catches.
In general it doesn't seem like really high contested catch rate is good for you. It means you don't get open enough. Another number that hits Keon Coleman hard.
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58 minutes ago, Superman said:
My interest in Worthy is limited to late third round, and beyond. Not my kind of receiver.
I'll probably watch more of AD. I started off not liking him very much, then watched more and became a fan. I also think his QB is awful, but that doesn't explain why Worthy would have a high YPRR with the same QB. I thought I just saw that he was high on a contested catch list, though; I'll try to find it.
Contested Catches in 2023:
•Rome Odunze: 21
•Marvin Harrison Jr: 13
•Malik Nabers: 10
•Keon Coleman: 10
•Xavier Legette: 10
•Brian Thomas Jr.: 7
•Troy Franklin: 7
•Xavier Worthy: 5
•Adonai Mitchell: 4
•Ladd McConkey: 2
Contested Catch % in 2023:
•Rome Odunze: 75.0% (21 for 28)
•Brian Thomas Jr.: 53.8% (7 for 13)
•Xavier Legette: 47.6% (10 for 21)
•Malik Nabers: 45.5% (10 for 22)
•Marvin Harrison Jr.: 43.3% (13 for 30)
•Ladd McConkey: 40.0% (2 for 5)
•Troy Franklin: 36.8% (7 for 19)
•Adonai Mitchell: 36.4% (4 for 11)
•Keon Coleman: 33.3% (10 for 33)
•Xavier Worthy: 23.8% (5 for 21)
The number being so low for Mitchell is interesting(and kind of makes the % not very reliable, since one more catch or not sways his stat a ton. Why is that? Does his QB not throw anything but absolutely uncontestedly open receivers? Why does Worthy has twice the number then? Did he not trust Mitchell to throw contested balls to him? Or was Mitchell... always open and thus... having very few contested catch chances?
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23 minutes ago, DougDew said:
With the amount of capital offered to Hunter, does it mean that Ballard is looking for an EDGE early?
That's a very good question and something I've been contemplating and something that has been on my mind for a while when looking at the DEs in this draft. That's part of the reason for me to take a deeper look at Dallas Turner who has striking similarities with Hunter both physically(light but super long DE) and athletically (super fast and explosive)... IMO people here underestimate the possibility we draft a DE high in the draft.
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13 minutes ago, Solid84 said:
Didn't Harrison have a dud throwing him the ball too?
Maybe it's more about the usage and routes being called? Not saying it can't be Ewers btw.
Yah, MHJ is just different animal... But to be honest I don't know for sure if the QB has big impact on it... It is just my intuition. Might be wrong.
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