Andrew Luck Historical Stat Comps

[Warhawk]

Posted this on another forum, thought you guys might want to see it.  If you think of anyone else notable in the past with stats as similar to Luck as these, please contribute.

 

I still see a lot of people online criticizing Andrew Luck because his stats aren't crazy good (they are good, just not totally-bonkers kinda good). So, if you project his passing stats out to 16 games, I would say that the best historical comp to him would actually be 2003 Tom Brady (and keep in mind that the Colts can lock up the division pretty early, so it's possible Luck may sit in game 17, bringing the stats even more in line, since Luck projects just a bit higher than Brady in throws and yards). Check it:

2003 Tom Brady: 317/527 (60.2%), 3620 yards (6.9 YPA, 11.4 YPC), 23 TD, 12 INT, 85.9 PR
2011 Luck (proj.): 330/555 (59.5%), 3888 yards (7.0 YPA, 11.8 YPC), 22 TD, 10 INT, 86.5 PR

And, coincidentally, 2003 was also Tom Brady's most successful year in terms of comebacks and game winning drives, with 4 and 7, respectfully (he's had 4 comebacks in a couple other seasons, but never in a total of 7 game winning drives). Luck already has 3 4th quarter comebacks this year (while he doesn't have as many as he did last year, it is worth noting that the Colts have, at some point, been losing in every game this year except @ San Francisco).

[AllYouNeedIsLuck]

Stats don't explain the whole story with Luck. His stats would be a whole lot better with probably 30 other offensive lines. 

 

Nonetheless, nice comparison. I could see him having a Brady-esque career with good but not incredible stats (some incredible stat years and some not) but with playoff success and Lombardi Trophies. 

Edited November 16, 2013 by AllYouNeedIsLuck

[Warhawk]

Stats don't explain the whole story with Luck. His stats would be a whole lot better with probably 30 other offensive lines.

 

Oh, I agree, that's kind of the purpose behind this comparison - plus, Brady had that 4-INT game against the Bills in week 1 of 2003 which was even worse than Luck's game against the Rams last week.  Brady had 7 of his 12 INTs in 2 games, both losses, in 2003, Luck has had 3 of his 6 in one game, a bad loss.  FWIW it doesn't account for Luck being a better runner, but the point is, in terms of statistics and late-game heroics, Luck this year has a lot of similarities to Brady in 2003.  Brady hadn't completely developed as the QB he ultimately became at that point (even though they were winning Super Bowls, because they had a very good team top-to-bottom), but according to advancednflstats.com, he had a WPA/game of 0.19 (total WPA of 3.54 for the season) in 2003, 3rd and 4th in the league respectively.  Guess what Luck's WPA/game this year is?  Yep, it's 0.19.

[AllYouNeedIsLuck]

Oh, I agree, that's kind of the purpose behind this comparison - plus, Brady had that 4-INT game against the Bills in week 1 of 2003 which was even worse than Luck's game against the Rams last week.  Brady had 7 of his 12 INTs in 2 games, both losses, in 2003, Luck has had 3 of his 6 in one game, a bad loss.  FWIW it doesn't account for Luck being a better runner, but the point is, in terms of statistics and late-game heroics, Luck this year has a lot of similarities to Brady in 2003.  Brady hadn't completely developed as the QB he ultimately became at that point (even though they were winning Super Bowls, because they had a very good team top-to-bottom), but according to advancednflstats.com, he had a WPA/game of 0.19 (total WPA of 3.54 for the season) in 2003, 3rd and 4th in the league respectively.  Guess what Luck's WPA/game this year is?  Yep, it's 0.19.

Wow crazy similarities. What's Luck's WPA rank this year?

[Warhawk]

Wow crazy similarities. What's Luck's WPA rank this year?

 

Lower than Brady, 8th per game and 7th overall.  Maybe indicative of it being more of a passing league... but also might be indicative of the QB pool being better this year than in 2003.  This year we've got Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, Wilson, Rivers, Luck, Ryan, and Foles all up there in WPA; in 2003, aside from Brady and Manning, the top WPA guys included Green, McNair, Kitna, Plummer, Garcia, Bulger, and Delhomme.  Not terrible QBs I guess, but since Favre didn't even sniff the top 10 that year, really only Manning and Brady as HOF guys in that group.  This year you could say Manning, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees are solid-to-sure HOF candidates, and then Luck and Wilson are too young to judge anyway, and Ryan, Stafford, and Rivers all have to be considered better than most of that 2003 list.  So I think that the difference in ranking is just due to 2003 being a pretty miserable year in terms of the NFL QB landscape.  The 2004 NFL draft with Manning, Roethlisberger, and Rivers started changing all that.