Archer
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Posts posted by Archer
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I think this is overdrafting the IOL. Fries is coming along well IMO, and I see maybe a 3rd or 4th round IOL to give us a better depth/succession option. I agree with @MikeCurtis that a primo WR is a good option, and I've been pretty disappointed with Rodney Thomas, so a play-making FS is also a top consideration for me. Also, I hate to say it, but we HAVE to cut Leonard this offseason. He's set to count almost $20 million against the cap next year vs. $8 million dead money. Saving $12 million helps us keep MJP, etc. That, coupled with EJ Speed's somewhat disappointing LB play, makes an all-round LB an early option too...
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1 hour ago, 1959Colts said:
We did just sign Juwann Winfree again yesterday, who I think (at this point) is the replacement for Rogers. Also points to Pierce not being too seriously injured. So, I would say, I'm not convinced Ballard has some eminent deal in place.
Yeah, our stacking of WRs on the active roster made me wonder if we wanted to start funneling some snaps away from Pierce. See if someone else can get more production at that flanker spot…
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The OP is outta his dang mind! Particularly about losing to the Patriots…
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20 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:
I like it, Nabers would be a fantastic pickup but we need to add a CB very badly (round 3?)
Yeah, so far through 5 games Brents and Jones are looking pretty good. Improving. I guess I figure that Brents starts one side, Jones and Flowers compete for the other, and Moore returns. That’s already three youngsters in the corps, so I didn’t want to draft another. We’ll get better at the position as the youngsters develop…
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4 hours ago, John Hammonds said:
I've been doing some waaaaaay too soon mocking myself. I'm addressing many of the same issues, but with vastly different people.
In my mock, I'm assuming we're picking somewhere in the early middle. Like pick 8 through 11.
1st Round - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU - Athletic, highly productive Z receiver, with natural ability to get open, but still needs to fill out his route tree.
2nd Round - Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota - Big and rangy, with the ability to play single high safety, and get interceptions, not just coverage.
3rd Round - Zak Zinter, OG, Michigan - Yes, I know, Fries is playing a lot better this year. I still want more assurance.
4th Round - Drake Nugent, OC, Michigan - This is in preparation for the post-Kelly world. He and Zinter already know how to line up next to each other.
5th Round - Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona - Speedy and shifty running in the open field; drafted specifically as a KR (which we don't have).
Yeah, I’ve been taking Nabers on those draft simulation sites when he falls. I’d rather have a 1st round WR, but I don’t like the 1st rounders left when we have a playoff team’s draft slot. Kinda why I drafted Horton above where most project him. Of course, he’s averaging like 120 yards a game with 6 total TDs through five games.
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I’m always thinking about the draft, so I thought I’d post my early thoughts. It’s a little difficult to predict the financial fall-out from the Jonathan Taylor contract, but my back-of-the-envelope figures should come close. There are a number of things in the first five games that have caused me to rearrange my priorities for 2024’s draft:
- Darius Leonard’s continued health problems and lack of elite play.
- The OL’s return to prominence. A couple of different rankings have placed our OL in the top 5 of the league.
- A lack of plays coming from the Safeties. I thought we had a burgeoning pair of premium Safeties, but neither one has been around the ball much or done much in coverage.
- Alec Pierce going the opposite direction as we’d hoped – who thought he’d become even MORE invisible during the course of games than he was last year?
The Plan
Re-sign: Pittman, Stewart, Minshew, Moss, Kenny Moore, Rigoberto, Tony Brown, and whatever cheap WRs we care to bring back (Montgomery, Hamler, Rodgers, etc.)
Cut: Leonard, Alie-Cox
Let Walk: Blackmon, Lewis, Bryan, Pinter
Leonard’s scheduled to count $20 million against the cap next year vs. a dead cap hit of $8 million. It kinda has to happen. And the group of young TEs needing PT makes Cox a goner, which saves us another $5 million. Pittman is one of those guys who epitomizes the qualities that we want on our team – toughness and grit. Gotta make him the priority. Would have loved to do the same with Blackmon on D, but $, his mediocre play so far, and Cross waiting in the wings make that unlikely. Grover gets a second extension, and Minshew will be more expensive this time around. I think we can keep Moss – but a middle round RB will probably be the plan if we can’t.
Draft
- Kamren Kitchens, S, Miami. A ball-hawking FS to pair with new starting SS Nick Cross.
- Tory Horton, WR, Colorado St. Down-the-field Flanker to replace the lost cause (Pierce).
- Ty’Ron Hopper, LB, Missouri. Former CB/S is solid in coverage and the run game. Depth and a new starter are needed at LB.
- Christian Haynes, OG, Connecticut. The interior depth needs help. Haynes has high-end athletic traits and loves to finish in the ground game.
- Jackson Mitchell, LB, Connecticut. Another good coverage LB.
- TJ Sanders, DT, South Carolina. High-effort 3T with good athletic traits.
- Jermaine Burton, WR, Alabama. Fast as all get-out, with really good quickness.
You’ll notice that the draft is packed full with players I think are ascending. Many are not currently predicted as highly as I have them.
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24-17 Colts. Big advantages on both lines propel us to a workman-like, blue-collar win…
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Flip a coin, roll the dice…you’ll be a winner every time!
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4 hours ago, Dingus McGirt said:
Coming off the unbelievable high of taking down the Ravens in such dramatic fashion - Steichen will have his work cut out for him getting the players emotionally "right" for the Rams. Prediction - game goes down to the final play, and it's a field goal...one way or the other.
Totally agree. If Steichen has them focused and fired up, then he might just be a great HC…
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This game is an interesting test of our leadership. Can we be up for this game after last week’s big win? I expect a close game, and I wish Quenton were healthy to deal with Donald. But, always the optimist (seriously, I predicted a 10-point win over the Ravens), I’ll go Indy 24, Rams 23.
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Amazing how low the scores get when you play good teams…
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I must be the only person who saw it this way, but I didn't see a replay of Speed's non-call that showed definitive PI. You can't see what EJ's doing with his back arm. You see EJ swiping at the ball with his left hand, and after the ball goes by you see Flowers whip around and flail his arms. He tried to sell it, but I'm not convinced EJ interfered. Everyone seems to admit it was a bad non-call, but I'm not even sure it was PI at all...
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9 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:
That lady announcer sounded like a girl version Bob Euchre from Major League LOL
I was actually thinking that she didn't do a bad job. Better to listen to than Romo, anyway...
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I love having a game where we can clearly say "our HC outcoached theirs".
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I wish the captain would come talk to Lt. Richardson about ducking for cover when the enemy is firing upon his position. Discretion is the better part of valor...
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Yeah, the secondary hasn't played too well yet - not a lot to lose there. I suppose they did well enough in the Texan game before Prevent Defense time started in the 3rd quarter. I don't think we're losing too much if Tony Brown goes in for Moore. I'm much more worried about the IOL - that's where I expect our OL to win big against the Ravens.
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Yeah, I agree with NewColtFan. Minshew's role is to mentor and help win games if AR's out. AR's playing as much as possible so he can develop...
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1 hour ago, craigerb said:
You all realize we're 7 1/2 pt. dogs
I'm sure we're all aware. And some underdogs win every week! That's why they play the game...
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Y’know, I got tired of reading how untalented we were in the off-season, so I looked for a more objective measure to tell how we measured up. I’ve been tracking the pff scores of the Colts against those of our opponents, and by that measure we haven’t been seriously outclassed yet. In fact, this will be the third week in a row that we have a big advantage on both LoS. That’ll keep us in a lot of games. This week, we’re catching some breaks, in that their NB just went on the IR and their best DL (Oweh) seems on track to miss the game. It’s also a trap game for them (if you can have one this early in the season), in that it’s sandwiched between two important divisional games.
I said all that to say this:
Colts 31
Ravens 21
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I hate to say it, bc I’ve always been a fan, but Mo should go. The others are all young, on rookie contracts, and in need of PT. You’ll be better off next year from having played Ogletree, Woods, Mallory, and Granson this year…
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Yeah, I didn’t write that we’d bench Pierce altogether. All teams use many different packages on offense, and I’m just saying to have a higher percentage of your plays entail 2 TEs or MPJ/Downs/McKenzie combos and a lower % with Pierce.
BTW, one other thing: Fries was on PFF’s all week 2 team. It raised his season score from 55.4 to 74.4. The OL is looking pretty solid, but they haven’t played a top DL yet…
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I decided to track our players’ pff grades this year to see if they reveal anything I don’t notice from my live watching of the game. I know - pff scores aren’t perfect, but at least they are an objective measure against which I can test my preconceived notions. Here are the roster changes that my analysis of pff scores would suggest:
1) Bench Darrell Baker and start Tony Brown. I thought Baker’s week 1 problems that led to a 45 pff grade were related to covering Ridley. However, his cumulative 2023 grade went down over 12 points against the Texans. Whether you move Moore outside and put Brown in the slot or you do a direct replacement, I’d get Baker outta there before we start playing good receiving corps.
2) Play Pierce less and McKenzie/Mallory/Ogletree more. I think it’s time to reduce Alec’s role until he earns it back. I’d get these others on the field anyway, as it doesn’t seem like deep shots are in the cards in the near future. Mallory could be a real YAC guy. In general I’d like to spread out the snaps to more guys and see who develops into an AR favorite.
Also) I’d keep a watch on Rodney Thomas. His Game 2 was better than the first, but his 2023 grade is 50.8. In very limited snaps, Cross is about 10 point higher.
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Mock 2024 offseason after Week 5 2023
in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk
Posted
Updated after week 7
Offseason Highlights: Cut Leonard and Alie-Cox, re-sign Pittman, Stewart, Moore, Minshew, Moss
Draft:
Trade 1 (13) for about 1 (22) and 2 (54)
1) Kamren Kinchens, FS, Miami
2) Dontay Corleone, NT, Cincinnati (rising Grover clone)
2) Tory Horton, Flanker, Colorado St.
3) Ty'Ron Hopper, LB, Missouri
4) Zach Frazier, IOL, West Virginia
5) Darius Robinson, 3T, Missouri
6) Jackson Mitchell, LB, Connecticut
7) Jarquez Hunter, RB, Auburn