Superman

My BPA philosophy is in my signature line. It's not 100% literal. But no, I don't agree with drafting for need. That's not what the draft is for. And no, I don't think Bradley would use a man corner effectively. But my question is about whether your so-called "man corner" can play zone effectively in Bradley's defense. Do you think Mitchell is a better player than Arnold? If not, why would you draft Mitchell ahead of Arnold? Unless you think Arnold is incapable of playing zone defense, I don't get it. I understand scheme fit -- we're not going to spend a first rounder on a standup pass rusher, for example, so Dallas Turner doesn't make any sense. But I don't think I agree with the idea that a corner who is good in man coverage isn't a scheme fit. And ultimately, I think your approach is based on the popular viewpoint, which is 'we should target a player at our greatest position of need in the first round,' and I just fundamentally disagree with that approach. I think it's flawed and shortsighted, and gradually undermines the quality of the roster. If you want to draft for need, identify the player that fits your team, and go get him. But don't reach past a better prospect just because he plays a position you don't perceive as an immediate need. And you maximize value by trading back and having a positional value philosophy. It's kind of a moot point. I think part of the attraction to this kind of defense is that it takes a premium off of the cornerback position, so I don't see Ballard drafting a corner in the first round anyway. But if he were going to draft a corner, I think he'd draft the best prospect that fits his desired profile. And I don't think being good in man coverage is disqualifying, it's actually a boost. So if all things were equal -- and they're not, but for the sake of discussion -- I don't see why the Colts wouldn't view a corner prospect who can play man as a tool that can improve Bradley's defense.

Marvin Harrison is awesome. I wouldn't be surprised if Nabers goes ahead of him. I can't imagine him dropping far enough for the Colts to be in range. If Thomas runs an impressive 40 and an acceptable three cone, he's probably a top 15-20 guy also. We could do a lot worse at #15, IMO. There's definitely a needs-based attraction on my part. But he might just be a better version of Alec Pierce, and that's not exactly the need that we have.

I guess I have two questions about this. First, why can't Arnold or Wiggins (or really any corner who plays man coverage) excel at zone coverage? Unless a guy can't tackle, I don't see why any particular corner prospect doesn't fit Bradley's defense. I understand that you might think his talents won't be fully utilized if we don't play more man, but that doesn't mean he can't do whatever we ask him to do in zone coverage. And the second question, is there another position that we need that could help Bradley's defense get better? And how does that relate to the draft board? I think we can get better at Edge and LB, but no one wants LB in the first round, and I don't really see anybody talking about Edge.

I think people have just taken off with the Bowers to Indy rumors. I think he goes in the top ten. And my early estimation is that Odunze is the better prospect, but there are way more good WRs than good TEs generally speaking, and especially in this year's draft. So I could see Bowers going before Odunze.

I guess we'll see about Partridge. I'm no expert on him, but he obviously has a great reputation. To your first point, that's what I was getting at. Turnover at coordinator positions is pretty high lately, Bradley wasn't hired by Steichen, the defense is aggressively average... It's hard to see Bradley being retained if the defense isn't significantly better in 2024. Also, there's no reason a really good man corner can't perform in this defense. I might see it differently from the Colts decision makers, but if we shy away from drafting good players because Bradley won't use them, then we're probably doomed anyway. I'm a pretty staunch BPA guy, so if the board falls in a way where a really good corner is the best option at #15, I have no problem with us making that decision.

What tools are those?

What are the chances Bradley isn't back in 2025? It might be a reasonable plan to add DBs who will fit a different scheme this year.

I've been watching Jayden Daniels. Wow. I like him better than Drake Maye so far. He has a lot to clean up and his arm is only average, but he's a dynamic, standout performer. I feel like he's a lot of what people thought Bryce Young was, but only for real. Actually a quick, fast player who can run, good processing, etc. And even though his arm isn't super impressive, it's good enough, and he can drive the ball through zone coverage and into tight windows. I also got to watch Nabers and Thomas. Nabers is the real deal, he catches everything, his change of direction is incredible, physical at the catch point, great after the catch, etc. Full package. Thomas isn't as good of a route runner but he looks like he has some wiggle to him, he's a long strider who can get behind the defense, he's also really good at the catch point and has an impressive catch radius. I want to see his 3 cone time, but he might be a RAS star who ends up high on the Colts board.

I have questions about your timeline. I don't think he said he'd be ready by Week 1 'days before the leak.' What I found was an interview with him at the start of camp, a month before the Bears game. If you can find the link you referenced earlier, that would be awesome. I could quibble about him throwing in warmups, but the article acknowledges that he did this after he had decided to retire. I definitely agree that it wasn't a good look for him to throw during warmups, given the entirety of the situation. But I don't think there was anything nefarious about it. I don't think the team was trying to hide the reality of the situation to sell tickets, or anything like that. And I don't think Luck was trying to mislead anyone or toy with them. I think Luck somewhat selfishly just wanted to go through warmups with his teammates, one last time, and that's understandable. One could say that's a privilege to which he was no longer entitled, and that's fair, but bottom line, I don't think he was trying to mislead people. End of the day, I don't fault anyone for not liking how Luck handled things. We're all entitled to our opinions. I think your stance is overly harsh, but that doesn't really matter because your perspective doesn't require my agreement for it to be valid. I just see it differently. What does grind my gears is the alternative version of history that gets shuffled around.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/35163936/andrew-luck-reveals-why-walked-away-nfl This article should be gospel on this topic. There are so many competing ideas and narratives, conspiracy theories about who know what, and when... It's all in this article. Luck finished the 2018 season, then played in the Pro Bowl, where he strained his ankle. Looking back, he says he wishes that he decided to retire right then, early in the 2019 offseason, but he didn't. During training camp, while continuing to rehab the ankle and being frustrated with the process, he started discussing retirement with his wife. He told Anthony Castonzo that he was thinking about it. He told his family and friends, including his uncle, who was his agent. His uncle told him to sleep on it. Two days later, Luck was certain that he'd retire. Ballard and Reich tried to get him to reconsider, but he wouldn't. Ballard and Luck's agent/uncle did the retirement paperwork. This is what happened over the next few days: The timeline is all there. Over the course of a couple weeks during training camp and preseason, Luck decided to retire, told the Colts, told his friends and family, etc. The Colts plan was to have him announce his retirement the day after the third preseason game. I don't know if there's a reason they decided to wait, but that amount of time passing + Luck telling a considerable amount of people led to the news leaking to the media. Also, Jacoby Brissett said that he knew Luck was retiring before the Bears game. So the idea that the team was unaware and surprised by the news that night is totally wrong. Schefter broke the news when he got it, which is his job. If anyone is to blame for the way the news broke, it's Luck and the Colts. But ultimately, that's such a small aspect of this story. I get fans who don't like how things were handled in those few days before the news came out, but it's Luck's decision, and his life. Holding such a deep seated grudge -- bordering on hatred for some -- seems misplaced, to me. All that said, what's clear from this article is that Luck did NOT decide to retire before the 2019 draft, nor did he tell the team he was retiring months before the news came out. He also didn't keep this from the team once he decided; the team knew his decision several days in advance. He struggled with his decision throughout the offseason, and made his decision to retire during training camp, at which point the team made arrangements to hold a press conference. Looking back, there are probably some things that all involved would have done differently, but at the end of the day, the team's star QB retired two weeks before the season started. No one hid it, no one lied about it, it caught everyone off guard, it sucked that it happened when it did and came out how it did, but oh well. Lastly, I haven't listened to what TY Hilton said, but based on the ESPN article, there's no way Luck was ever coming back to play.

Allen and McDermott acknowledged there was a problem. McDermott said he was very concerned about it. It's okay if different people view this differently. It can be up for interpretation, and what one person sees as diva-like, another person might find defensible. I'm just saying it's not all made up nonsense. There's something there, and Diggs is at least partly responsible for it.

The Niners seem to get their ball carriers open with space to run better than every other team. And I think his increased production this year is partly due to having a QB who's locked in. It's totally out of nowhere, but Brock Purdy is the best QB to run Shanahan's offense since MVP Matt Ryan. So between Shanahan's system and Purdy's efficiency, I think it's unlikely that there's really anything holding back Aiyuk's production. He's probably in the best situation he'll ever be in. I didn't realize he had outlier arm length, but that makes sense. He seems bigger than 6'0", IMO. Pairing him with MPJ would be interesting. But when I think about the ideal partner for MPJ, I think of a guy who can tilt the field with his speed. If all things were equal, I wouldn't mind swapping MPJ for Aiyuk, and reconfiguring the rest of the WR room around Aiyuk, but that seems unlikely for a lot of reasons.

This stuff about Diggs isn't made up, it's not rumors and false news. Maybe it's been overblown, maybe blame is being misplaced, I don't know. But it's not just a figment of anyone's imagination. Diggs has displayed some diva-like behavior. He was conspicuously absent from the Bills offseason program, and it wasn't contract related. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott both acknowledged that there was some kind of problem between Diggs and Allen, they were concerned about it, and it got squashed at some point before the 2023 season started. But then he started showing signs of being upset again. And to NCF's point about him being more concerned with his own production than the team's results, Diggs was more productive in the first half of the 2023 season, even though the Bills were losing games. Then they made some coaching changes on the offensive side, Diggs production went down, but they started winning more games and made the playoffs. This is what Diggs said last week: My read on that is 'I had to get used to not getting the ball as much.' Which is an interesting thing to say when the team was winning in the second half of the season. And then he buttons it up by casting doubt on either the team's future, or his future with the team, not sure. So if someone says Diggs has some diva to him, it's not made up. And if you want to take a 30 year old WR whose role is being adjusted on his team and will probably continue to diminish, and put him with a young QB who has a long way to go in the NFL, I think you should expect some discontent from him. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/stefon-diggs-josh-allen-drama-buffalo-bills-minicamp/fd73bae3bf5c026ade699f31

I really like Aiyuk and have had my eye on him. I'm just not 100% sure he's a dynamic #1 WR. Really good production on a team with Deebo, CMC, Kittle... is he putting up 1,400 yards anywhere else though? He's not a burner, not super explosive as a player, really good route runner, great hands, tough, quick, but not a downfield guy. Again, I really like him, he'd easily be our best WR, a serious upgrade to our WR corps. I just wonder if we need a more dynamic player.

@ColtStrong2013 Yup. Here's another story, with Jeff Hafley talking about why he left BC as the HC to be the DC for the Packers. Pretty much says he wanted to coach football, not be a fundraiser for NIL money. I'm not even an anti NIL guy, but I get it. https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/jeff-hafley-explains-why-nfl-coordinator-is-a-better-job-than-boston-college-head-coach

I don't think there's any substance to the rumor that AJ Brown wants to leave the Eagles. More importantly, his contract makes trading him extremely prohibitive. It's a $41m cap penalty in 2024 if they trade him before the draft. If they trade him after the draft, it's $10m in 2024, and $31m in 2025. I think they'd also want significantly more than one first round pick for him. All of this combined, I doubt AJ Brown is getting traded.

Yeah, I think if we want a bonafide #1 WR this year, the best way to get him is by trading. But Diggs isn't the guy I'd want.

I think some of us are seeing what we want to see in this hire... I don't think it says anything about draft prospects, nor do I see it as an indication of what the Colts might do with the DC position in the future. They probably just hired him because he's a really good DL coach. But I'll definitely give you your props if your theory plays out. I don't have any inside info, but I read a story recently that included a quote from a college coach, and he said a lot of college coaches and personnel are trying to get on with an NFL team right now. I think his exact quote was 'everyone is trying to get to the league.' I think with the changing landscape of college football, some talented coaches see the NFL as a better environment for them right now. And that thought has been pretty prominent in my mind lately, especially as the Colts have hired some college coaches. There's probably a variety of factors, but this theory makes sense to me. Here's an article from Joel Klatt giving his thoughts on the dynamic: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-football/joel-klatt-why-so-many-prominent-college-coaches-are-leaving-for-the-nfl

100%. Steichen's pressers drive me crazy because he just won't play the game. His guard is up every step of the way, he avoids traps, dismisses questions with boilerplate responses, etc. It's almost a waste of time. Yet, it's impressive. His level of focus and discipline in this area is something that most coaches either lack or don't properly value, IMO. His ability to never break, never get flustered, is admirable, even if the result is a completely sanitized press conference experience that gives the fans zero insight. I'd prefer that he be more engaging and informative, but I also appreciate the gamesmanship and strict approach. It's hard to be misquoted if you say virtually nothing quotable, and it's hard to twist your words if every other answer is some version of 'we'll work through that internally,' or 'I'm not gonna get into the details on that.'

I agree, I think it's a good question and I'd love to get some clarity on how the responsibilities will be shared. But in general, it seems like another person working on gameplans, specific to the passing attack.

I agree that adding a passing game coordinator can be a good thing. It seems like most teams have added that position to the staff lately, and hope it pays off for the Colts.

To your first point, I personally think the general consensus around the GM getting players that the coach loved is a little overblown. I think sometimes we take a one-off comment and turn it into absolute gospel, when there's actually a lot of context and nuance that's missing. Reich may have loved Granson, but that doesn't mean that everyone didn't love Granson. And maybe Reich thought he was a top 50 guy, while the scouts and Ballard felt he'd be available for longer. Just a hypothetical to illustrate why I think this narrative can become exaggerated. I think the point about QBs is clear and obvious. Including Steichen having a major influence over the Richardson pick. And I think the Colts' front office is very collaborative, so I'm not questioning that the HC has an important voice. Just saying I don't think we really know to what extent his voice is influencing roster decisions. But another point that I want to push back on is the bolded. I mentioned this recently as well. What indication do we have that Steichen has a sharper eye for talent than any who was here before him, or anyone else in the building? And lastly, just to clarify my earlier point about the HC influencing the scouting process... The process is very involved, the scouts report to the GM and other front office execs, and that process is mostly independent of the coaching staff. When I talk about a new voice in the front office, I'm thinking about the potential for adjustments to the scouting and player evaluation process that is mostly handled by the front office. To my mind, that process would not be directly influenced by the HC. But if we hired a new director of college scouting, there would be a more direct impact. Again, just theorizing, and at this point, it seems irrelevant because Ed Dodds isn't going anywhere right now.

This is true, and I'm looking forward to seeing how this offseason goes. But I don't think the HC is going to make a big imprint on front office specific stuff, like the scouting process, player evaluations, etc.

Just went back to 2018, on a whim. Here's every QB drafted in the first round who is still with his first team as of today, and how many HCs he's had, as of 2024. 2018: Josh Allen (1) Lamar Jackson (1) 2019: Kyler Murray (2) Daniel Jones (3) 2020: Joe Burrow (1) Tua Tagovailoa (2) Justin Herbert (3) Jordan Love (1) 2021: Trevor Lawrence (2) Zach Wilson (1) Justin Fields (2) 2022: Kenny Pickett (1) So that's 50%, and doesn't include guys like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins (RIP), whose original teams have changed HCs since they were drafted. Also not listing 2023 because it's so early, but that's already 1 out of 3... Just illustrating that the coaching carousel is just as crazy as the QB carousel. Teams don't seem to have any idea what they're doing...

I mentioned this in the above post, but I hope the Bears decided to keep Eberflus without expecting an amazing season in 2024. The idea that they win 10 games and fire him is kind of crazy to me. I guess we'll see... But in general, if you're a highly drafted QB, it's a strong likelihood that you're going to outlast your first HC. It sucks, but that's how it's been going over the last few years. In the last three seasons, there have been 23 new HCs. That's insane to think about. In 2022, ten new HCs; last year, just five; this year, eight new HCs (and I could make a case for 2-3 more being on the brink; how is Dennis Allen still on with the Saints??) There are only eight HCs who have been on their current job for more than five years. The other 75% of NFL head coaches were hired in 2020 or later. So if you get drafted in the first round, and the team picks up your fifth year option, you're probably lasting longer than your first HC. And let's not get started on coordinator changes... So if you're a QB getting drafted at #1, does it really matter if the HC is on the hot seat right now? He's probably going to be on the hot seat at some point in the next 2-3 years anyway, it's just the nature of the business. Like you said, I don't think anyone expected the Reich/Young pairing to get blown up so quickly. You just never know. And it might seem counterintuitive, especially because I'm not necessarily an Eberflus fan, but if the Bears are going to draft a QB in 2024, they need to commit to their present coaching staff for at least a couple seasons, bottom line. They've made significant changes to their offensive coaching staff, and hopefully they're fostering an environment in which a young QB can thrive.