EastStreet
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Posts posted by EastStreet
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Cowboys tag Lawrence, Houston tags Clowney. That's two FA DE's that won't be jumping somewhere else. Lawrence will not be a happy camper this time. Thought there might be outside chance we'd go after a big name free agent DE.
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4 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:
So, in reality, the unrealistic portions of these sites may actually be more realistic because it's unrealistic to think that some of the players that were unreal in college will play unreal in the pros, it's assumed the will get a reality check in the pros making their unrealistic play at the lower level be truly unrealistic to achieve thus making their unrealistic availability in the later rounds a more realistic projection.
I will speak from experience on this, @NewColtsFan is on a personal mission this offseason to make sure that all posters on this forum keep their heads out of the clouds on draft choices and make sure that we all stay reasonable in our hopes and expectations.
It does make one wonder why he would play these games if he is so against the results.
not sure if you got what i was saying. so i'll expand.
some positions go quick and are more prone to reaches (DL, Edge, OT, G, QB). some positions consistently get ignored based on "position value" or because some O or D systems value measurements/size as much or more than CFB production. some positions are just undervalued period for a variety of reasons. If you're looking for top QBs, OL, or DL performers, you have to go early. If you're looking for RBs, LBs, or Ss, you can typically find some steals later. WRs, TEs, and CBs, IMO fluctuate a bit, but more evenly spread.
for instance, use the big name RBs of Justice Hall, Trayveon Williams, or Bryce Love. Justice Hall blew everyone away with his 40 at the combine (and that should help). Love was the darling of much CFB talk at Stanford. Williams was a beast and top 5 rusher in the nation. Many would assume they'd go early. I doubt any of them go before the 3 rd round. Not sure any of them project as typical every down backs, and RBs historically don't go early (unless very special and ones that check all the size and measurement boxes).
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5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
I’ve played these games... I’m not talking out of my rear end.
And it wouldn’t bother me at all except when I see comments that show the posters believe there’s a chance of this happening. They think it’s realistic.
They don’t understand the reason their mock looks so good is that they’ve got 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders all over their mocks. They’re not drafting 5th, and 6th and 7th round quality players in those rounds. They’re still drafting good quality players.
Look... I get these computer simulations are addictive. Have fun! But understand they’re not realistic. Too many posters here think they are.
i've played them for years. some are better (more updated and realistic) than others. you should also consider that some big names, are bigger because they are big in college, but may be thought of as not translating well to the NFL. so when you see those names in later rounds, it may see unrealistic, but in reality it could be closer to reality than not.
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1 hour ago, DerekDiggler said:
Can you all post your scores when you post your picks? It would be nice to see the grades of each pick and the total scores
will do. going to do one shortly.
1 hour ago, csmopar said:Me too. I think this is going to be a very difficult year for a lot of positions, there are really no super star studs in this draft at the normal positions. I think there's going to be some big reaches and lots of busts in this draft. DL, Edge are probably the two safest positions in the 1st round to draft. Course, that is my own, unprofessional opinion.
i think the rush on some positions, will be very good for others. so while i agree there could be some huge busts, there could also be some great value in the later rounds. ballard did pretty awesome with the later picks, so things could fall our way this year too.
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7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
There isn’t a single realistic computer mock in this thread.
Im not blaming the posters here. You obviously take the best player available. But as I’ve been saying for years here, most of what they have is simply not realistic. Nit even a little bit.
So saying... “yeah, I’d like that draft ysntvsaying much “. We’d all like to get players 1-3 rounds after they should be long gone. Who doesn’t love that?!?
The games are fun. But at some point you have to realize they’re not close to being realistic. Not at all.
it is a game no doubt, and it's supposed to be fun above all else. not sure why it bothers you...
if you play around enough with the choices (boards and needs), you'll find some realistic ones. some of the boards/rankings are updated every few days. the "team needs" choices also vary. the fanspeak for instance is pretty accurate. but you can also choose "fan voted" which is more homer, and i'd assume is more geared toward flash.
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Most draft mocks I see have 6 Edge and 7-9 DL taken in the first round. What a run on defensive big uglies. Kind of a big drop off after that in terms of ratings. That's 40% or more of the 1st round. Hope we can grab a stud with that first pick. Will be interesting to see how the WRs fall out as well.
So anxious to get going with both the draft and FAs this year.
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9 minutes ago, Four2itus said:
The above bolded would never fit in my brain.....ever.
i'm all about long term, not short. if we don't have a legit shot to win it all, give me a better draft.
for instance. lets say we are 5-3. luck goes down for the season. what would your rather have.
1) struggle and go 3-5 or 4-4, end up with 8 or 9 wins, not make the playoffs or lose 1st in the WC, and draft in bottom 3rd.
or
2) go 1-7 or 2-6, not worry and let the young guys start getting reps, and draft in the top half
doesn't mean you can't cheer for the team and enjoy in scenario 2
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37 minutes ago, Nate! said:
Messed around and got DK Metcalf with Colts second pick in the 2nd round. Not sure how realistic the mocking of this site is though who knows, maybe he will drop like a rock
make sure you're selecting one of the more updated boards. Matt Miller's board is always pretty accurate and up to date. Fanspeak too. The choice of "team needs" can impact too. Fanspeak is always pretty accurate there as well too. Given DK's rise in the combine yesterday, doubt he'd be available.
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QB and OL for me.
It's more interesting to me what people think is the worst position group. I'd say DL, then DB. WR was crap last year aside from TY. Lot's of "potential", but we need a stud #2.
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Just now, crazycolt1 said:
I think you are real close in what Brissett would bring.
My point is a 4th round pick worth the gamble not having Luck backed up by a competent QB if needed? IMO, no.
honestly if Luck goes down for a game or so, i'd agree. if he goes down for the year, i really would prefer to lose and improve our 2020 draft situation. in short, i'd be fine with less talented back up QB if JB would bring a 3rd rounder or better. 4th round pick maybe.
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1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:
I trust Ballard will do what he does best.
One of the best things he does is not pay attention to what the fans think.
That includes me, you nor anyone else.
i do too. he's nailed it so far.
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14 minutes ago, dw49 said:
I agree but I just can't see a viable market for him. At best I think he brings us a 4th round pick.
we shall see. it'll be interesting. i think it's a 50/50 toss up right now.
would not be shocked if the phone started ringing right before, during, and after the draft.
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Been having fun with this. Multiple options (draft boards/team needs). Only takes a few minutes. Boards/mocks should start to settle a little with the combine coming to a close tomorrow. I used the most updated (fanspeak) board, and took user voted team needs.
Enjoy.
https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/
Here's mine for the Colts
26: R1P26
DL DREMONT JONES
OHIO STATE
34: R2P2
WR MARQUISE BROWN
OKLAHOMA
59: R2P27
EDGE OSHANE XIMINES
ODU
89: R3P25
CB KIY HESTER
RUTGERS
129: R4P27
OT CHUMA EDOGA
USC
135: R4P33
G LESTER COTTON
ALABAMA
164: R5P26
S MARVELL TELL III
USC
199: R6P26
RB MYLES GASKIN
WASHINGTON
240: R7P26
WR GREG DORTCH
WAKE FOREST
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11 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
How you figure we get nothing if he stays next year?
We have a full year of having a pretty good back up at a real good price. Plus the insurance of having him in case Luck should miss any games.
Ballard said he sleeps better at night knowing we have Brissett on the team. Let him get his rest.
i'd rather Ballard toss and turn a little, and have an extra pick this year.
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1 hour ago, masterlock said:
I don't think you're going to have to worry about spending a high pick on a safety. Pretty sure Ballard will go defensive lineman based on comments he's made this off-season in interviews.
The way the post combine mocks are going, DTs and Edges are going very early. Did a few simulators early today and it was slim pickings when it came for the Colts to select.
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8 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:
Today, i would think his best hope is to replace someone injured like he came here, or to just get a chance to compete with someone that has issues.
Minus large incentives, that $10M threshold is significant, and would still be leveraged against the total of our FA signings, not just be an automatic comp based on his individual contract. I would bet you know this so this is for all readers.
And no doubt if he didn't like his FA situation, he could get paid reasonablly to stay here for a year.we have a lot of contracts expiring in 2020, so it won't be just JB. we could lose several FAs. Doyle, Ebron, Castonzo, Sheard, Clark, are the high dollar ones, but many more.
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1 hour ago, aaron11 said:
im talking about Jacksonville.
it's a toss up right now with mocks between QB and Edge. NFL.com for instance has them taking an Edge with their first pick. some mocks have them trading up to get a QB.
i'm a fan of building the lines before getting a franchise QB. i'd prefer like NFL.com to have a high edge with that early pick. and if they do that, JB would be a great one year plan to bridge till they are ready to take a QB. and if he works out, resign him, and you're not looking for an early round QB anymore.
1 hour ago, Cynjin said:That depends on who is available and who is drafted, it is not anything like money. Also, having JB this year is more valuable to another team than having him next year since he is still on his rookie contract. Next year he will be much more expensive to sign.
it's exactly like money. to say it's not is silly. sure the draft is a crap shoot, but that goes for every year. being able to invest today, or have a player that can contribute today, is more valuable than having that same player next year. and there's not even a guarantee we'd get 3rd or 4th next year (although I think it's a fair shot). Right now he's nothing more than an unproductive insurance policy. i do agree, a team benefits from getting him this year. they can kick the tires for a year without committing to what will be more money next.
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5 minutes ago, Cynjin said:
I'm not sure what you base the bolded on.
simple economics. just like a dollar, having a draft pick now is always worth more this year, than next.
a third round pick next year doesn't help you on the field this year. a third round pick this year can.
3 minutes ago, aaron11 said:i would be shocked if they didnt take a qb in the first at this point. they could even trade up from #7
they would have to be pretty high on JB to trade for him with one year remaining on his contract when they can get a 5 year deal on a rookie. i still think the colts would be reluctant to send him there, but i doubt we will find out
which team are you talking about? i listed 3
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10 minutes ago, Cynjin said:
I not so sure it is part of a sales process. If he does leave as a FA, odds are the Colts would get a 3rd round comp pick for him. Why would they take anything less than a 2 for him this year, especially since he is on his rookie contract?
That being said, I am not sure another team would be willing to give up a 2nd round pick.
a third round pick this year, is worth more than a third round pick next year. it's that simple. the whole "i want a second now, or i'll take a third later" is nothing but sales theater to me.
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31 minutes ago, richard pallo said:
Per Pro Football Rumors; Tony Pauline of draftanaylst.com is reporting per sources at the combine that the Colts "Would demand a second round draft choice "for Jacoby Brissett. Their reasoning is if he signs a contract next year with another team the contract he receives would then turn into a third round compensatory pick. Therefore if you want him a year early on a cheap contract the price is a 2nd. They are very high on Brissett as we know.
just part of the sales pitch/game i'd imagine. Ballard isn't going to say out loud, "hey we'll take a 3rd or 4th for him cause we want to get rid of him before he leaves as a FA"....
like i said earlier, it's too early to expect any real offers. top FA QBs and others top guys on the block will be the first to drop. JB's situation to me says any action at all will happen right around (before or after), the draft. i could see Ballard preferring a personnel trade too.
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1 hour ago, aaron11 said:
we wont trade him to the jags or titans. he hasnt done enough for them to make a crazy big offer, and a realistic trade could help them more than we would want
i disagree. it's not like we're trading pro bowler. i'd rather send JB, then for them to get a 1st round QB. i think we'd send him anywhere so long as Ballard got what he wanted. i also doubt Ballard would hold him back from a potential starting gig. We shall see.
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4 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:
I would tend to agree with this
Briskett IS a "tweener" with some potential. The unknown is what is his true ceiling.
I like most of what I saw from him last year.
Because there are some decent QBs in play that may slide, I dont see a deal before the draft, if there is one to be had
During the draft, you may see some calls for him if the top QBs all go early
There are some QBs in the draft, going to me slotted for the 3rd and 4th round this year.
The question that a GM has to have is, which is more of a risk Brissett who has a sample of experiene or a rookie coming out
It will all play out
There is at least a 50/50 chance that Brisett is on our sideline this year
Deano
Personally, if my teams needs a QB, but has other big holes, i'd be open to giving up a 3rd round pick for JB. you know what you're getting more so than reaching with a guy like Thorson, Finley, Stidham, etc.. There's 3, maybe 5 good QBs in the draft. And they all are likely gone after the first round. Everyone else is a stretch, or a project. Even QBs 4 and 5 (Jones and Grier) are stretches to me, and wouldn't want to use a 1st on them.
I'm good with JB staying. We'll get a comp pick if he leaves later. I'd rather have another pick now though
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IMO, it's too early to get "starter" offers. JB is a tweener at this point. Great back-up and potential starter. Teams looking for a starter are going to see what falls out in the draft, and preferably lock someone in to a rookie contract if possible. Those unhappy with what is available, or those with bigger other needs, will come calling during the draft, or post draft depending on how things shake out.
I would not be shocked to see him go to Miami, TN, or Jax. QB is not deep this year. If I'm a team with a QB need, I'd go JB before I'd reach for 2nd tier in the draft. JB would be much cheaper, and you'd have one year to kick the tires.
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1 hour ago, Hoose said:
It may also be because if there is action on Brissett, you'd better be prepared with a backup plan. I suspect that the way the draft falls will have a significant impact upon a Brissett trade. If an offer is forthcoming, I doubt the Colts will get a real one until Day 1 is over, and the dust has settled.
Simply my opinion, but a backup QB's primary existence (in a system like ours, and Luck's age) should be 1) get through short term injury situations (like a couple snaps or a few games), and 2) take useless snaps when the game is already decided. It should be someone who is a good game manager and familiar with the existing system, and someone that's either on a cheaper rookie contract, or a reasonable experienced journeyman.
A backup should not be someone expected to play a bunch, cost a ton, or have a problem being a proverbial backup. Now it's different perhaps for a team that has a run heavy QB, but not for the Colts.
We only picked up Jacoby because of the long term injury to Luck. He was a great pick up given the situation (Luck's injury, duration of injury, and Jacoby's contract situation). Things are different now. Luck is back to being Luck, Jacoby's in his final contract year, etc. I don't see Ballard paying to keep him after 2019, nor do I see Jacoby wanting to stay. If Jacoby is who I think he is, he wants to start, and will go to a place that gives him opportunity.
Our best bet is either to 1) trade him this year if we can get a third or better pick, or 2) if we can't, ride out his contract and potentially get a comp pick in 2020 (which we can use on another backup). If we trade him this year, not sure the "plan" is anything much more than a 3rd or later pick that will allow us to lock in someone for 4 years. And whoever we pick up, assuming Luck is healthy, just needs to be a game manager type, and a good fit for the system. If Luck goes down long term, I'm happy with losing and getting a better draft for the next year. If he's out for an extended time (like 2017), then things change, just like when we traded for Jacoby.
My guess, Indy and Miami work out a player swap (not draft picks). They'll likely draft a run heavy QB in the 1st, will need a 1 year transition guy, and won't want to give up draft picks to get one.
If DK Metcalf is available at #20... trade for him???
in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk
Posted
Depends what DL or Edge were still available, and it would depend on what Luck wants. I'd prefer to go DL or Edge with first pick, maybe first and second, but definitely want a WR in the first three. But Luck does need another toy, and he needs a good one. I think we'll get more bang for our bucks in terms of point differential with a good WR. I just think you have to take a DL or Edge earlier due to the rush on them early, and the drop off after the top guys.