EastStreet
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Posts posted by EastStreet
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12 minutes ago, DarkSuperman said:
We'll get guys that will come in and be able to take this offense to the next level either by Draft or Free Agency. I'm just not sold on Tyrell Williams being one of those guys.
I'm not either. I love his potential, his size, his speed, but 2018 was his 4th year, he was 3rd in receiving yards, 4th in catches (for the LACs).
I mean he's definitely and upgrade to Rogers and Grant, but that's not saying much. Saw some articles that said he'd be the highest paid FA WR this year. I'm not familiar TBH with how LAC used him though.
If we're going to go big in FA on a WR, I'd prefer it be with someone that was a proven #2 or better, not 3rd or 4th best on his team. IDK, perhaps it was just a product of LAC's O.
Anyway, I'm still on the train of drafting a WR with the #2, upgrading at WR in FA (just not paying though the nose), and continuing to develop Cain and Inman.
But, like I've said from the start, if Luck likes him, I'm on board.
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Raiders will eventually be in Vegas, which is cool. But Indy is definitely > than Cleveland, for so many reasons.
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5 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:
Luck wants whatever Frank says he needs to attack D's. And i KNOW Andrew is best at stretching the field, it is what he LOVES.
We have every reason to expect CB to hit ALL of your wants in FA and the draft.I'd say Luck's input is as important as Franks. I think they are peas and carrots. So you could easily say Frank wants whatever Luck says he needs to attack D's.
To me, it's going to come down to what Ballard is willing to do. I don't see him spending top 10 money. If we do go long term with Williams, I hope he's willing to be reasonable. I'm sure he knows that a Colts long term deal should provide ample op for winning!
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1 hour ago, Clem-Dog said:
I agree. Value fluctuations begin immediately.
there are always fluctuations, but if you look at what we got in terms of production, it was not the best deal. we got a second year guy and third round pick who started a couple games with stats that weren't remarkable. they got a third year guy and first round pick who was trending up stat wise. our need was bigger than theirs, so we got the short end IMO.
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27 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:
This made me super curious since I respect the opinions and commentary that both you and Superman bring to the forum.
And since I am a total stats/metrics nerd, I wanted to dig (Fair warning, long post and attached analysis. Stop reading or turn back now if you are bored by long posts, analysis and nerdy stat people).
Soooo here is what I dug up and compiled. This is based on stats from Next Gen Stats and it is averaged over three year (2016-2018) to give a broad sample size (spreadsheet attached for those that love stats like me- if my attachment works. Never tried that before).
I compared 5 top FAs (Williams, Tate, Humphries, Cobb, Crowder) to Hilton (since he is someone beloved by us and known to us).
Compared the Yards after catch per reception, YAC+ (basically how well a player performs after the catch versus what would be expected of a player on each reception they make), Separation (how open are they getting?), Targeted Air yards (how far downfield are they?) and catch percentage.
One interesting find:
Hilton: 5.1, 0.1, 2.5, 12.6, 58.1
Williams: 6.7, -0.6, 2.8, 12.7, 61.1
So the interesting part about this is Williams is very much used by SD as we use Hilton. He averaged a much better YAC, but that doesn't tell the whole story. His YAC+ is not good. At all. So while he gets yards after the catch based on how he was used, he left yards on the field and didn't perform as any player would be expected on his catches.
Tate: 6.5, 1.2, 2.8, 6.7, 70.0
Humphries: 6.0, 0.4, 3.5, 6.1, 70.7
Cobb: 6.3, 0.5, 3.3, 7.2, 68.5
Crowder: 6.3, 0.3, 3.2, 8.4, 63.7
What does this all mean in summary?
The intuitive stuff of Tate, Cobb, Humphries and Crowder being slots and playing closer to the line shows up. They all averaged targets 6-8 or so yards down the field compared to Hilton and Williams being over 12 yards down the field.
Williams basically outperforms Hilton in all facets other than YAC+. Where everyone beats him readily. He is a below average player in maximizing his YAC. So he gets YAC, but not as much as he should.
The guy who excels and gets the most YAC compared to what he should per catch?.....Golden Tate. And he is almost 3 times as good as the next best guy on that list.
All of these guys get better separation than Hilton and they range from 2.8 to 3.5 yards.
For me, the fun of this was seeing who did what and what are the Colts looking for? Are we looking for another WR to use in the same way that we use Hilton? If so, Williams is the guy and he puts up comparable next generation numbers to Hilton.
Do we want a guy who maximizes separation and makes the most of his YAC? Then we go with any of the 4 slot guys.
It is fascinating that Humphries, Cobb and Crowder are soooo close to being the same. And we see Humphries rumors of $10M a year but nothing close to that for Cobb or Crowder.
Williams is unique in that his usage as a result of his size and skill set makes him different from the other four. Different does not mean better. But different.
I personally want Tate. But I found it fascinating that if we miss on him, most people have a desire for Humphries. And Crowder is basically the same guy and the same age and sounds like he might be a significantly cheaper alternative.
I'm with you on Tate. I also like Tate because I think we could get him for a shorter term contract, or a more reasonable longer term. While I like Williams, he's too similar to TY stat wise, and use. Different body types though, and I like Williams' size. If they are going for Williams, perhaps they'd move TY around including some at slot. Not sure how much longer at 30 he maintains the speed.
Honestly I want Luck to get whatever toy he wants. I'm just hesitant to spend big and long. And I do think we are a stud Edge, rush DT, and legit #2 WR away from competing for a SB.
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my foolosophy has always been to draft the guys on the right, and play the FA market with the guys on the left. sure there are exceptions, the more you can adhere, the better off cap wise and personnel we'll be.
#bang4buck
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1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:
I'm a Dorsett fan too. Liked him from the start.
But something is missing. He's now been in the league 4 years and he's yet to break out. And now NE is letting him walk. If he was what we all hoped he'd be, his career would have a different arc. I'd love to know what his problems are, but something doesn't add up.
the stall in his arc, IMO is that we traded him lol. he was coming on well, he got traded and took some time to pick up NE's O. Then Edleman got suspended and they picked up Gordon. he improved year 1 to year 2 in both Os. IMO he's got a chance to be a solid #2 or #3 in the right system. At worst he's a good rotational guy. would not be shocked to see the Colts knock on his door if he doesn't figure something out with NE.
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2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:
I get you have to be careful regardless of how much money you have and spend smartly but WR is definitely a need we have. I like Williams as well, so maybe that is why I think the gamble would be worth it with him. He is young too (I believe just 27), if he was older like near 30 I would say no way.
agree. if we're going to gamble, WR is one of the positions I do it with. i think i'd just prefer to try and pick up Tate on a 2 year deal, instead of Williams on a higher dollar and longer contract.
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22 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
Fair enough.... I hear you.... but after a year or so, there's less concern over draft pick status. It doesn't happen often that you're trading 1's for 1's... or 2's for 2's.
At some point is approximate value for approximate value. They had a QB to trade and we needed one. We had a WR to trade and they needed one. At that point, draft pick value is less important.
IDK. Dorsett was coming on. I know we needed JB, but I hated to part with Dorsett after investing 2 years on him (chemistry and what not).
And he had 2 TDs this post season for NE IIRC. NE's WR stall is now kind of crowded I think, so will be interesting to see where he ends up.
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4 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:
It amazes me how some people in here do not want to spend any money when we have more than anyone under the Cap. You have to spend money to get top talent, no way around it. I guess if some of you want McDonald's all of your life instead of St Elmo you will always stay rich but never enjoy life to the fullest. Like the person that drives the beat up ol Chevy truck but has 10,000,000 in the bank to by a sports car and doesn't do it but can afford too. If we get a WR like Tyrell Williams that would be a great addition to the team and guess what, we can afford it
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i want to spend the money, but i want to build the team, especially the high dollar skill positions with the draft. there's a reason (several reasons) the Pats are so successful. they rarely spend big on FAs.
Cain and Inman (and even Pascal) will compete to be #2 and #3 guys. We'll need to draft a legit #1 guy this year or next (it takes a couple years to develop) to be ready for when TY starts to slow. I'd rather use the cap to rent some guys for a couple years. And for the most part, it's best to use dollars on positions like S and LB in FA, as they are typically the best FA value.
I just don't want a high dollar and longer term contract. I'd rather spread the cap around. And honestly if we're going after a high dollar and long term contract, I'd rather it be on an Edge or DT.
But, like I said earlier, if Luck wants him, I'm 100% behind it. I don't think Ballard is going to overpay regardless.
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Just now, MikeCurtis said:
to me....... thats why you go with Williams
i don't want a big dollar long term contract, and that's likely what Williams would want.
give me someone for two years.
cain is similar to Williams (speed/body), so i'm expecting him (and Inman) to develop.
and we need a legit #1 or #2 in this draft given TY will be 30. takes 2-3 years to develop at WR, so that's about the right timing if TY were to decline.
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Just now, Chloe6124 said:
Problem is Williams will come in and make a impact right away. A draft WR your looking at maybe two years. Tate I believe is older.
Tate is older, but is still very productive. I don't want him for more than two years
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1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:
Your memory is a little hazy on Jacoby Brissett. We did NOT pay a 2 to get him. We traded Philip Dorsett straight up for JB. No loss of ANY draft pick. A straight player for player deal.
We needed a QB, the Pats needed a WR.
That was the deal.
I was equating draft pick for Dorsett. But I was wrong there too. Dorsett was a 1st rounder. So we gave up a 1st rounder (PD) for a third rounder (JB).
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Torn on this. Love that he is a "take the top off the D" kind of guy. If Luck wants him, I'm good with it.
Otherwise, I think I'd rather draft a speed guy with one of two first picks. Keep in mind though that Cain is a 4.43 guy and 6-2.
NFL.com just released their FA rankings. TW is 36th. They have Tate above him at 26th.
If we are going to keep Inman (which I want to do), and draft a WR with the first 2 or three picks, I just don't know that I'd want to spend the money. If we get get a good but short deal I'd probably be OK. I think the changes of getting good/short is better with a guy like Tate, than Williams.
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maybe smoke a smidge less before posting lol
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On 3/5/2019 at 8:41 AM, Myles said:
I'm trying to decipher your post. Are you saying that we should trade Brissett so that if Luck gets injured we don't have a competent backup? Or are you just saying that if we knew the future, we should root for a better draft spot? I agree that if we knew we were going to lose the first playoff game and could instead, pick top 8 in the draft, I would pick the better draft spot. But we don't know that.
If we were 5-3 and Luck went down, I would like to have Brissett filling in and maybe going 9-7 with a shot at the playoffs. If Philly and Foles have shown us anything, it is that a competent backup can lead a good team far in the playoffs.
I'm saying that I'm OK with a less talented back up QB. We only signed him because we knew Luck would be out for an extended period. If Luck is out for the post season, we wouldn't go far anyway. Just saying draft positioning for me is more important to me than limping long term with a BU QB.
In short, this is likely our best chance to get something out of JB. We gave up a 2nd rounder to get him. I'd be fine with getting a 3rd for him, and either signing another FA cheap, or drafting someone in the later rounds that we'll have on a cheap long term contract. Next year, we're not going to get in a bidding war to keep him. Likely a 4th or 5th round comp, maybe 3rd if we're really lucky.
Wonder how much Sam Bradford is looking for. He can't stay healthy an entire year, and won't ever be looked at as a starter again. But I'd love to have him in the case Luck temporarily went down for a couple of plays, or a couple of games. Should be cheap. I'd guess JB will get more in a contract than Sam but who knows.
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after reading a few mocks, WR is getting more an more play. only because all the Edge are taken.
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he's not prime, he is good.
if he won't break the bank, and he fits into Ballard's XX year plan, then great.
sign me up if ballard thinks it's good.
he seems like a guy who we'd go after, after the draft though.
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Was just chatting with buds on the topic of FA. The best values in FA are typically S and LB. We have a ton cap space. Solving for those two plus one of the bigger needs (Edge, interior DL, WR, CB) should be doable. Can't wait for the start of FA next week.
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I'm torn. I'm not sure there will be stud Edge left at 26, and I don't want to reach. If there's not, I'd go WR if there's a true stud there, and get Edge with #2. I think with a doubt though we have to upgrade both pass rush and WR.
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Didn't see a poll on draft needs. Do we go QB wrecker, a new shiny toy for Andrew, or something else?
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if he doesn't want to break the bank, i'd take him in a heart beat.
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I'd go best Edge remaining, unless we address EDGE in FA.
I think Ballard will try to lock up at least one position out of Edge, DT, WR, and CB before the draft. FA fun starts next week!
After Edge, I'll take best available of WR, DT, and CB. Huge rush on Edge and DTs early, and the better CBs will be gone by the end of the second round. WR is deep IMO, but the impact WRs will be gone by mid 2nd.
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9 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:
Chiefs tagged Dee Ford
it's tag time! the deadline is tomorrow for franchise and transition players.
just read an ESPN article about who will be aggressive in FA this year. while they listed the Colts in the aggressive bucket, they made it clear that Ballard wasn't going to go crazy on a single player.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26076476/rating-how-active-every-nfl-team-2019-free-agency
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Cain comeback video
in Colts Football
Posted
we definitely got a steal (mentioned in the vid).
would love to see this kid recover and get back on track.