stitches
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Posts posted by stitches
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13 minutes ago, DougDew said:
I didn't expect my throw away sentence in a larger comment about there possibly being a bright line between the talent at 8 and 15 to generate a couple of long comments about statistics of GMs. I already know them BTW, thanks. And if this turns into a Ballard Grievance thread, don't blame me simply because I mentioned the name Ballard.
The convo was about a possible bright line in the talent bucket, so I could support Ballard making a trade up given that every body on this board thinks the Colts need more explosive players at at least a few positions. Since the convo was starting to drift towards me listing players who could possibly be in that bucket ...me drawing where the bright line might be....I turned the convo backed to where it belonged, IMO, and said I expect Ballard to know if there is a bright line and make that trade because he knows. That's what "expecting to get it right " means. That he thinks there is a bright line worth trading into for if he indeed trades up...and doesn't just throw a dart at it.
I can't advocate a trade up because I don't know if there is a bright line (and I'm not going to spend the energy and someone else's millions to know). But I expect Ballard to know if he trades up. That stats you quoted aren't related to what I was saying.
IMO there is almost never a bright line. Even the picks in top 5 don't have dramatically better success rate than pick at 15 and the value you sacrifice to get up to that spot will almost never be worth giving up. The bright line is almost always about QBs simply because with QBs the expected return is much higher(like... order of magnitute higher compared to some positions so even though you are sacrificing some pick value, you gain A TON of positional value)
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1 hour ago, NFLfan said:
I thought McCaffrey was a reach.
So how do you feel about the rumors that Minnesota will try to move up to that 5-6 range for him?
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7 hours ago, DougDew said:
So, Trade it to move up for a WR, EDGE, or TE that has at least that much more incremental talent at 8 than at 15? I would not be mad at Ballard for taking that swing. Of course, I expect him to get it right, because that's what he is paid to do.
This will not be a popular opinion here but the reality is - in the long run most GMs will have about the same success rate with picks in the same range and even in the first round you cannot really rely on the picks working out at super high rate. So if the league wide success rate is 50%, a reasonable expectation for a good GM is to get it right 55% of the time, not 80-90-....100% of the time. And BTW that's the reason trading down is usually a good move - it gives you more bites at the apple, while the success rate is not impacted dramatically. Example - let's say the success rate at 15 is 55% and you get an offer to trade down to 20(assumed success rate of 50%) and a 3d round pick(assumed success rate 30%). You get a lot more value from just trading down than by having above average drafting GM compared to average one. Of course here we are taking very simplified binary approach, but if you do the same with expected value(expected WAR, or whatever performance metric you want to use), you will get similar results. That's why I'm usually against trading up and in favor of trading down. You are usually adding value to your team with trade downs.
So yeah..this is where the GMs really make the big difference in the draft(And Ballard has been good with it in that respect). The second area where the GM makes a difference in the draft is what positions they decide to prioritize with the high value picks(and this is where we probably can have some gripes with Ballard because he's spent some really high value picks on low value positions). But even in that case - him drafting Nelson super high was working out great until his injuries hit(he was the OL with highest WAR in the entire league for the first 3 years in the league)...
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4 hours ago, NFLfan said:
Are you all enjoying this? Any reaches?
Thanks for picking for me. IMO my pick for the bears can be qualified as a bit of a reach but I just got wiped out on my board. Ideally I would have liked to trade back and gotten some more picks but couldn't get it done.
Oh well, Latu was the highest player left on my board so I'm happy with it, but in the real world it's possible Latu goes much later because of injury concerns.
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I'm going to bed, have fun with the draft guys and gals. I've sent my picks to @NFLfan...
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3 minutes ago, shasta519 said:
I could see it. Smith's contract and injury situation might make him a release candidate. And this would give the OT one year to develop before taking over.
I wasn't thinking about releasing him. I think he has value on his contract, He's one of the best RTs in the league. But still ... he has contract for this year and next. After that ... if we are preparing to pay our LT(Raimann) and our QB(if AR pans out), we might need to make some sacrifices with some top of the roster players. Or we might trade Braden Smith if we get a good offer...
3 minutes ago, shasta519 said:But I also could see Ballard taking advantage of a OT-needy team moving back a bit and getting some Day 2 capital.
Yep! That's IMO the most likely scenario. If I had to bet right now on any position or trade back, I'd bet Ballard is going to trade back.
4 minutes ago, Superman said:Yeah, don't misunderstand me. I don't think any of this is off the table for Ballard. I think a lot of people think it MUST be CB/WR at #15, and I think they're probably setting themselves up for disappointment.
I think the most likely is neither CB, nor WR at 15. IMO the most likely is still trading back...
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33 minutes ago, Superman said:
Specifically at OT, there's a chance Latham and Fuaga are there. And at DT, Murphy and Newton. I think there are people on this site who would throw up if we picked an edge, but out of Turner, Verse, Latu, and Robinson, 2-3 of them should still be in play.
How sure are we Ballard wouldn't draft an OT at 15 if he really likes one of them? I kind of cannot exclude the possibility of any of this happening. I think people are still preoccupied with the idea of drafting for need, when Ballard has shown in the past that if he sees value he will draft at positions we don't have big immediate needs at. For example, lets assume Fuaga is there and Ballard thinks he will be amazing OT... while we are paying big bucks for Braden Smith. Maybe he decides he wants to prepare a move away from Smith in the next year or two... and in the meantime he strengthens the line as a whole by adding another high level talent who can play both RT and possibly RG...
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I have to reiterate that the Bears at 9 are still willing to trade down ... But that offer will be on the table for like... 3 more hours because I will be going to bed after.
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Just now, RollerColt said:
The Cincinnati Bengals are trading picks 18 and 49 with the Jets to move up to pick 10.
Nice trade... I might have done that for 9
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48 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:
Nice. I’ve known who he was since the fall but was waiting on his testing. I wonder if he’s more of a box safety though because one thing that popped with him was his violent hits he’d dish out.
He was moved all over their formation. Here are his splits last 3 years:
Still has over 500 snaps at deep safety last 2 seasons.
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Anybody have interest in moving up from the teens to 9?
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On 3/21/2024 at 2:35 AM, Defjamz26 said:
May have to take Nubin off my list. granted these are pro day numbers but yikes. Kind of just confirms that this isn’t a great safety class.
Jaden Hicks is the guy we should be looking at rather than Nubin. He fits better what Ballard likes...
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7 hours ago, NFLfan said:
I will have to leave work on time so that I can be home by when @stitchesis on the clock. Stitches, will you surprise us?
No surprise. The Bears have already ran to the podium and are doing cartwheels and painting their nails 💅
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23 minutes ago, jskinnz said:
My bad. I did not read your note clearly enough.
My reading comprehension is not in mid season form yet.
We are still not even in OTAs... tons of time until mid-season
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Damn, that's terrible. So young... RIP
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16 hours ago, jskinnz said:
Why don’t you want Thomas?I do. I just have fallen in love with Latu at this point.
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Urgh! I hate you!
I think I'm going all in on Latu. I think he will be great. Don't take this to mean I don't want BTJ.
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56 minutes ago, NFLfan said:
I think they could have gotten more. They panicked. Other teams got more for other players who are not as talented. As @stitches wrote, a team could have even used him as a running back. The Bears gave him away. I don't have the time now but I am sure I can find QBs with less talent and less promise who were traded for more.
Sam Howell, 4th and 6th got traded for a a 3d and 5th... if you use the regular trade chart that's equivalent to late 3d or early 4th round pick.
Pickett and a 4th were traded for 3d and 2 7ths... this is the equivalent of a mid-4th.
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11 minutes ago, DattMavis said:
I'll admit, I'm living off the Kool-aid right now. If AR is healthy (and gets back to form), he wins at least one MVP in his career.
At least 1 MVP and at least 2 Super bowls...
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12 minutes ago, MFT5 said:
i love AR BUT what exactly is the graph annotating ??
It says on the graph - scramble % on the X axis, yards per scramble on the Y axis.
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Let the hype continue:
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Here's some food for thought... Just how much did Ballard want Sneed? Because Sneed is a CB who played a ton of press-man with the Chiefs... Is Ballard moving away from the off-coverage that he seems to like? Or at the very least - is he trying to diversify the coverage we are playing a bit? If so... again, Kool-Aid played the most press-man and at a high level from any player in the draft(he has over 500 snaps in press-man the last 2 seasons). The other one is... Arnold(over 300 snaps in press last season and a half), but he's a bit under the 32" arm length threshold.
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11 minutes ago, richard pallo said:
I think Ballard would be more inclined to trade for a DE than a WR especially since he tried for Hunter. Eagles just gave Reddick away and Burns went for a 2nd and a fifth. He’s the same age as Burns. So I’m not a sure 1st would be necessary. He would do an extension like he did with Buckner. I would bet Dallas would take our 15th like the 49’ers took our 13th for Buckner. They aren’t feeling the same pressure though as SF. On the other hand they want to sign Dak. They might decide they can not afford both. So I like your thinking. Timing is everything. Getting Parsons would be a difference making acquisition.
Yeah, I'm not certain about the compensation. It's really hard for me to gauge what different players are worth when you have to give them a top money contract in addition to the picks. The league is all over the place with those... Some get 2 firsts, others that I would have expected to get 2 1sts, get a 1st and some change... But yah, my point is Ballard should be on top of all those possibilities and probing for a potential opening to get one of those players while we have Richardson on his rookie contract.
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[Beau Allen Breakdowns] Colts DT Grover Stewart Is The Ultimate Disruptor
in Colts Football
Posted
Just stumbled on this on youtube, thought some of you guys might enjoy it...