Warhawk
-
Posts
1,020 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Gallery
Events
Blogs
Posts posted by Warhawk
-
-
You have to remember that teams are grabbing RB's who can play at the NFL level, do decent jobs as far as blocking, pass catching, and running in the 4th and later rounds. When you can get a decent starter in the late rounds of the draft, why would you want to spend a first rounder on one?
Because most other positions on the field you don't find decent starters after the 3rd round unless you hit on a gem.
There are some positions such as QB, and OT that you don't typically find decent starters after the first round unless you hit on a gem
You can absolutely find a decent enough guy late in the draft or undrafted, but you can do that at other positions too, and we have several of those guys, most notably Bethea and Mathis, and Freeman was undrafted. Toler was a 4th round guy and he's looked pretty good for us so far.
I think the issue is that people seem to look at a guy like Arian Foster and draw too significant a conclusion from him, that you can find a top running back late in the draft, and that it's not worth drafting a running back early.
So I just looked up all the all-pro running backs since the year 2000, as representative of the very best running backs in the nfl over that period (not all AP all-pros, I included anyone who was listed as an all-pro by any of the outlets tracked by PFR). There have been precisely 30 all-pro running backs since 2000 (a number of repeats from year to year). 2 of them were undrafted (Foster and Priest Holmes). Only 2 were drafted later than the 3rd round. That means that 26 of the 30 were what we'd now call Day 1-2 drafted players. 16 - over half - were drafted in the first round.
By contrast, if you look at QBs, one of the positions you said you need to spend a high pick on, of 11 all-pro QBs since 2000, just 4 were drafted in the first round, and just 6 were drafted in the first 3 rounds.
-
I do think one problem is that some people seem to be applying the usual criticism of trades, that you shouldn't be trading a draft pick for a guy who's, like, 30, to this situation. Anyone saying that the Colts are losing the opportunity to acquire a young player with that draft pick are completely oblivious to the fact that they just acquired a young player with that draft pick.
And, hey, people are welcome to criticize the decision to acquire Richardson specifically, I would argue against them but that's my opinion, it's just that people arguing against making any trade of this sort based on some kind of overarching philosophical code are being asinine.
-
Mathis and Wayne aren't going to play forever, and they're our biggest cap hits at the moment.
-
Personally I think it's like offering you $100, or letting you blindly pick whatever is in one of an assortment of 16 jars, where like 3 or 4 of the jars have $120 or $130 in them, but half the jars are filled with spiders.
-
OK, it's worth pointing out that what the Colts are on the hook for in terms of Richardson's salary over the next 3 years is pretty much what a mid-to-late first round pick would cost including signing bonus (though in that case it would be a 4 year deal).
So here's the relevant question to determine whether it's smart to trade a future draft pick for a guy who was recently drafted and is still young enough that the age difference is negligible.
If I offered you either Trent Richardson, or, for the same amount of money but one more year, a player picked entirely at random from the following list, which would you choose? For reference, the following list is players who were picked 16-24th overall in 2011 and 2012.
Ryan Kerrigan
Nate Solder
Corey Liuget
Prince Amukamara
Adrian Clayborn
Phil Taylor
Anthony Castonzo
Danny Watkins
Cameron Jordan
Quinton Coples
Dre Kirkpatrick
Melvin Ingram
Shea McClellan
Kendall Wright
Chandler Jones
Brandon Weeden
Riley Reiff
David DeCastro -
That's certainly a... striking... mental image.
-
Running helps you pass, passing helps you run.
Andrew Luck, statistically, is most effective when he's using play action.
When you see a guy like Luck moving to hand off to a guy like Richardson, whichever way it goes, if you guess wrong, you're screwed.
-
The average rating out of 10 for your posts.
And that's only because the French judge gave him an 8.
-
FYI, found this link on a Steeler forum:
http://www.footballperspective.com/why-trent-richardsons-3-6-ypc-average-does-not-matter/
-
The Browns will more than likely get a top 10 pick.
Their own pick, sure. The Colts' pick, I would consider that highly unlikely. The Colts are probably a .500 team at worst.
-
Literally every single Steelers fan is laughing right now, so, yeah, I think I like it.
BTW, strictly speaking, this means that the Browns traded a top-5 pick, 3 late-round picks, and 13+ million dollars for a mid-to-late first round pick and a 17 game rental of Trent Richardson.
The Colts, on the other hand, got the third overall pick for about 6 million bucks and a mid-to-late first rounder.
I mean, think about that for a minute.
That's completely insane.
-
Really? we thought we fixed this
Find Nedry! Check the vending machines!
-
Nah-uh. Not doing this again. Absolutely not.
I'm going to go read a book or something.
You all should as well.
-
Colts
Patriots
Chiefs
Bengals
Broncos
Texans
-
Short answer: NO.
Long answer: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
BTW, I've pointed this out before, but tight ends rarely produce at an elite level as rookies. I went through all the elite and borderline-elite TEs I could think of a while back, and 95% of them either barely played their rookie seasons or put up numbers no better than 50% of what they would put up in future seasons (often less than that). We're talking about TEs who routinely get 70+/1000+ consistently having rookie seasons that are like 30/450. It's incredible how rare a great rookie season from a TE is.
-
Whalen, party of one, your table is ready.
By the way, I was just looking through combine/pro day stats, and it's really striking how Whalen's measurables in almost every respect are virtually identical to Collie's. I'm talking 40 times, 10- and 20-yard splits, cone drill, shuttle (Collie had a bad 20 yard shuttle at the combine but his pro day was 1 hundreth off of Whalen's), bench (Collie had 2 better reps). Collie was slightly taller but Whalen had a slightly better vertical, so their height+vertical was almost identical. And if Whalen's player profile on the Colts site is accurate he's put on some weight and is closer to Collie in that regard too. And a lot of the same strengths on the field, in terms of route running and good hands.
-
Holy hindsight bias Batman!
-
I don't see McGlynn being cut.
Yea he stunk, but he can play center and guard. That is valuable for a back-up.
Yeah, but so can Holmes, and we don't need 4 guys (Satele, Shipley, Holmes, and McGlynn) who can play center. IMO that means that Link and Ijalana have more value than McGlynn because those 2 can at least play some tackle.
-
With Pagano calling Hughes a Ngata type player, I can see him seeing significant time all across our DL real soon, he won't beat out Francios by week 1 but should be seeing a increased amount of snaps by week 3
Pagano has a lot to play with this year, our defense should be exciting to watch
Yeah, Hughes has the physical tools to play either NT or DE in a 3-4 system. Measurables-wise he's big for a DE, but if we're looking for a "big" package at d-line we may be seeing some Hughes-Chapman-RJF sets.
-
Yeah the only QB worth Mr. Irrelevant this year was Tyler Bray. He'd be our Matt Flynn trade bait in a few years. Still good with Cunningham, I think.
Yeah, I might have made a play on Bray if only to slap the "Developed by Andrew Luck" sticker on him and traded him for a high pick.
-
I think Daxton Swanson will at least make the PS. Possibility of making the team as the 5th corner.
-
Scouts Inc. has Swanson as the #8 best available UDFA.
-
Bill Polian he is not.
And we're all very thankful for that.
-
Well, you missed some D-linemen, but as for the roster, I'm pretty happy at the moment.
You never spend a No.1 on a running back, remember?
in Colts Football
Posted
Personally I've always thought the "rule" should be that you don't spend a first round pick on a running back and build your team around him in lieu of getting a franchise quarterback. Sure, it's a passing league, but why wouldn't you want a top end running back if you already have a franchise quarterback? I mean, look at Edgerrin James. Sure, the Colts didn't win a Super Bowl with him, but given that we already had Manning, I call that a very successful pick.
The problem is that so many teams that draft a running back that early have crap at QB. Maybe they assume they can get one one or two years down the line. Worked out (mostly) for the Chargers since a year after they got Tomlinson they got Brees, and then later Rivers. Worked out (kinda) for the Seahawks who drafted Alexander and then at least had a competent QB in Hasselbeck, made it to a Super Bowl. It very well might end up working out for C.J. Spiller with Manuel looking promising. Sure, we look at guys like Peterson and Johnson and Jones-Drew and the struggles their teams have had and say "oh, it's a passing league, running backs must not be very important to winning," but that's not true - running backs are important, but you need a good passing game in order to make good use of them. The running backs in last year's Super Bowl were Ray Rice and Frank Gore. Those are good running backs. They do a lot for their teams. So does Marshawn Lynch. So did Michael Turner for a number of years in Atlanta. Brian Westbrook did a lot to make the Eagles better when they had a good QB. Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes, Edgerrin James, the aforementioned Alexander and Tomlinson, all guys who did a lot to enhance their teams when the teams also had either a competent passing game or in a few cases a dominant defense.
So, yeah, we've clearly seen that you can't build a winning team around a running back. But that doesn't mean that a good running back is a bad investment, because when you've already built your team around a franchise QB, for instance, a good running back can add a lot, and maybe even push you over the top.