Superman

https://cocktaildetour.com/dillusion/

Yeah, low production, high potential, which I'm sure the fans here would LOVE (sarcasm). But everywhere I look I don't see him making it past the 20s.

By the way, I ran a bunch of sims, and the first 14 picks generally went something like this: 1 - Caleb Williams 2 - Drake Maye 3 - Jayden Daniels 4 - Marvin Jr 5 - Malik Nabers 6 - Joe Alt 7 - Brock Bowers 8 - Olumuyiwa Fashanu 9 - Rome Odunze 10 - Jared Verse 11 - Laiatu Latu 12 - Jer'Zhan Newton 13 - JC Latham 14 - Dallas Turner So those players were generally not available at #15.

I wonder if he was getting noisy behind the scenes. He's a solid piece and his contract was way under market, so I can understand if they didn't want to have another potential contract issue going into 2024. But I would have been looking for his replacement this year or next, not locking him in for three more years.

We'll see about that. I think we just saw the start of a major market correction at safety, and while McKinney is a good option, there's suddenly a lot more competition among the free agents. I don't know if he has the standing to push the ceiling on the safety market, but we'll see. It only takes one team.

Irsay to Ballard:

I said I would try to get a mock out before free agency. I worked on this over the last few days here and there, and I took too long because now stuff is happening. We don't have details on the Pittman and Franklin deals yet, so I'm not sure how they affect the cap. I'm going to ignore them for now, and proceed with how I set up my mock. This mock is kind of a blend between what I think the Colts should do, flavored by what I think they actually would consider doing. So no huge trades, no extreme cap manipulation, not super aggressive in free agency. I'm also doing no trades in the draft, because that's unpredictable. I used NFLDraftBuzz.com for the draft, and my cap info is taken from Spotrac and OverTheCap. I used PFF for some charting and performance also. Let me know what you think. Doesn't matter if you think Player X is going to get way more in free agency, or if you think Player Y is going to go way higher in the draft... no one knows at this point. Just want to talk about how we think the roster would look and perform. My goal would be to have a division contending team in 2024, while maintaining cap flexibility for the future. Colts current cap standing: $210.6m committed, adjusted cap $259.8m, 2024 cap space $49.2m, 2025 projected cap space $149.4m Adjustments: Mo Alie-Cox released (-$5.9m), Michael Pittman extended (-$11.8m) Kwity Paye's 5th year option declined; total savings $17.7m Updated cap standing: 2024 cap space $66.9m, 63 players under contract Colts free agents: Michael Pittman (tagged): Four years, $90m, 2024 cap hit $10m, 2025 cap hit $15m ($20m signing bonus, backloaded) Kenny Moore: Three years, $27m, 2024 cap hit $5.5m, 2025 cap hit $9m (need to maintain vet presence in the secondary) Julian Blackmon: One year, $2.5m (compete for starting spot) Gardner Minshew: One year, $4.5m (familiarity and a stable floor) Ronnie Harrison: One year, $1.125m Rigoberto Sanchez: Three years, $9m, 2024 cap hit $2m, 2025 cap hit $3m Danny Pinter: One year, $1.5m (depth at interior OL) Trey Sermon: One year, $1.055m (depth at RB) Grover Stewart: Not retained (age, cost) Taven Bryan: Not retained Jacob Martin: Not retained Tyquan Lewis: Not retained Isaiah McKenzie: Not retained Zach Moss: Not retained (cost, role) Genard Avery: Not retained Henry Black: Not retained Tony Brown: Not retained Cap space used: $29.18m in 2024, $27m in 2025 Free agency: Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB, Titans: Three years, $20m ($6m, $6.5m) -- starting CB with all the traits the Colts love, production, scheme fit DJ Chark, WR, Panthers: Two years, $12m ($5m, $7m) -- starting WR with explosive ability, better version of Alec Pierce Ashtyn Davis, FS, Jets: Two years, $8m ($3.5m, $4.5m) -- potential starting FS who can also play all special teams, puts Blackmon back into competition at SS, and Rodney Thomas back to a reserve role Josh Jones, OT, Texans: Two years, $8m ($3.25m, $4.75m) -- competition/depth across the OL, can start at either tackle spot in a pinch, also help at guard Derrick Nnadi, NT, Chiefs: One year, $5m -- nose tackle replacement for Grover Stewart Mykal Walker, LB, Steelers: One year, $2m -- competition at LB, athletic, rangy, physical, was very promising with Falcons and then had a lingering injury before 2023 season Cap space used: $24.75m in 2024, $22.75m in 2025 Draft: 1/15: Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State: Seems like the Ballard guy to me from an athletic standpoint, still has room to add size and has potential to be refined as a pass rusher, can compete with Paye at LEO, has better upside than any pass rusher on the roster right now 2/46: Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State: Another size/athlete fit, plays multiple DL positions, mostly would be a 3T in the NFL, has pass rush potential, high motor, fiery competitor 3/82: Xavier Leggette, WR, South Carolina: The best AJ Brown comp in this year's draft, IMO; good size, fast, strong, great catch radius, high points the ball, wins against DBs, willing and aggressive blocker, not a technical route runner but has some advanced footwork and can create separation, long speed is dangerous, can run through tackles 4/116: Matt Goncalves, OT, Pitt: Size, versatility, athleticism, scheme fit, had a toe injury that cut his 2023 season short, basically another Braden Smith 5/150: Dylan Laube, RB, New Hampshire: Productive dual threat back, special teams ability, higher RAS score than you'd initially think 6/190: MJ Devonshire, CB, Pitt: Not a great RAS guy, but has decent size and speed, is physical and competitive, fluid movement, played multiple DB positions, has ball production 7/234: Trevin Wallace, LB, Kentucky: Back to RAS, good college production, can blitz, rangy, tough, potential as both a Mike and Will in either defense that Ballard appears to like Cap space used: $9.1m 2024 (based on Spotrac projection) New cap standing: 2024 remaining cap space, $3.87m; 2025 projected cap space $99.65m (not including 2024 draft picks); 76 players under contract, need 14 UDFAs Potential 2025 free agents, cap casualties: DeForest Buckner, Ryan Kelly, Kwity Paye, Dayo, Speed, Granson, Minshew, Fries; still need a long term option at NT, backup QB, etc. Depth chart: (rookies in bold; veteran FAs in italics) QB: Richardson, Minshew, Ehlinger RB: Taylor, Laube, Hull, Goodson, Scott, Sermon WR: Pittman, Leggette, Montgomery WR2: Chark, Pierce, Winfree WR3: Downs, Dulin TE1: Woods, Granson TE2: Ogletree, Mallory LT: Raimann, Goncalves, Witt LG: Nelson, Hambright Center: Kelly, Pinter, French RG: Fries, Sills RT: Smith, Jones, Freeland DT: Buckner, Fiske DT/NT: Nnandi, Adebawore, Johnson RE: Paye, Robinson, Leo LE: Ebukam, Dayo LB/M: Franklin, Olubi LB/W: Speed, Wallace LB/S: Walker, McGrone, Stuard CB1: Murphy-Bunting, Flowers, Devonshire CB2: Brents, Jones, Baker Nickel: Moore, Lammons FS: Davis, Thomas SS: Blackmon, Cross, Scott K: Gay P: Sanchez LS: Rhodes Still need to fill out the roster with UDFAs and depth/competition, and the depth chart doesn't include everyone under contract. Should have sufficient cap space in 2024, and still in strong position for 2025. I'm losing some vets at DL, but I think adding some youth with upside; it hurts losing Grover, but it's what I expect in real life, and I think Nnandi is a decent replacement at less than half the expected cost. Greater pass rush potential with Robinson, and puts Paye on notice going into a contract year. The offensive potential is mostly based on Anthony Richardson's potential, but I think the WR room is significantly upgraded, and would have the dynamic ability and versatility that's needed to enhance the passing game. The TE room is full of youth, and of course this is based on the assumption that Ogletree is considered fully cleared by the league and remains on the team. Added depth/competition at OL, and keeping Gardner Minshew as a safety blanket for one more year. On defense, upgraded the DBs, put Blackmon and Cross in competition at SS, added a vet corner, added LB options. I'm closer on the 2024 cap than I would want to be, but the top 51 rule protects me through camp, and I think a small restructure for Nelson, or even an extension for Buckner, should be on the table as options before the season starts. Ideally, I'd want $10m in cap buffer as of Week 1, and I think that's very doable. And without the 2024 draft class (which we can estimate at around $12m), I'm still close to $100m under the cap in 2025. Now rip this apart and tell me why I'm crazy. Also, check my math...

Yeah I don't get it either. I'm not crowning him as a potential star or anything, but he was playing reasonably well before legal stuff came up. Not setting the world on fire, but he looked like a decent option for our TE room. That doesn't guarantee him a spot on the final roster in September, but there's no reason to think that the Colts would want to move on from him before then.

This definitely qualifies as a hot take.

I get what you're saying. The Colts probably did their best to get him re-signed before the tag deadline, and he still wanted to let it play out further, so maybe he would rather play somewhere else. And even though he's put down roots in Indy and seems to enjoy it, he could have competing priorities. His usage and the overall team situation could be a bigger sticking point than any of us realize. I think it's close to a lock that he's back because I don't think another team is signing him to an offer sheet, and I don't think he'd demand a trade, so the Colts are in control. Maybe he just plays on the tag, or maybe he agrees to a long term deal. But he won't leave unless the Colts change their minds about wanting to keep him, and that seems unlikely.

What I mean by "cherry picked" is some of those criteria aren't really indicative of a top level WR, and it seems like they are brought up to make Edelman look better. Not meaning to be accusatory, they're your criteria and you aren't trying to make them universal, but I don't usually think of 'make guys miss' or even 'YAC' as areas that are specific to top level WRs. I think YAC is an area where secondary WRs and slot guys should excel. More big picture, I think everyone kind of has their own criteria, and they apply it post hoc to validate their opinions either way. If you think 2016 Edelman was better or more valuable than 2023 Pittman, that's fine; I probably don't agree, but that's a different story. But I don't think 2016 Edelman qualifies as a WR1. And it's mostly irrelevant because that was eight years ago... Personally, he's not the type of WR I'd be targeting as a FA.

I think his market is pretty well established. Maybe if Tee Higgins signs for more than $25m/year, but that seems unlikely. The other guys -- Jefferson, Chase, Lamb, etc. -- are on another tier, and I don't think they should have a significant impact on Pittman's target. Who knows how it goes, but that's how I see it. I think more of Pittman and his potential with better QBing than you do, but I don't think he's irreplaceable. If he wanted to be traded, or if we got a strong offer for him, strictly from an on-field standpoint, I'd be willing to trade him. I think there's a locker room impact to consider, and based on everything Ballard and Steichen have said, I seriously doubt this would happen. But even a trade wouldn't bother me, as long as we got back good value. I wouldn't mind revamping our WR room rather than committing big money to Pittman. Outside of Pittman holding out, I don't think there's anything to worry about. The tag works in the team's favor 99% of the time.

I hadn't heard that. Didn't he do all the field work after he ran his 40? Seems weird that now there's an unknown hamstring issue... If he shaves off a tenth of a second at the pro day, I'll be skeptical. But if he runs 4.46 or something, it's not a big deal to me. Like you said, I prefer the standardized conditions at the Combine. But more and more players are splitting up their testing between the Combine and pro days, if they test at all. I don't fault them for trying to control their situation, but it makes it harder to have reliable and comparable data.

I'm just taking MPJ at his word. He said he wanted to see what's out there, but would not be displeased with being tagged. He also said the tag can be used to work toward a long term deal. So I don't think there's any indication that he doesn't want to be a Colt, or that there's a hang-up somewhere between him and the team. There could be, but it seems like he was willing to play out his contract and get to this point, then decide what the best option is. I think his agent can speak to what other teams would be willing to pay. He has clients with the Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Cardinals, Steelers, Bears, Ravens, Browns, Rams, etc., a bunch of teams that either have cap space or would want a WR. I also think the Colts have a legitimate offer on the table, and based on their track record, it's probably not a lowball. Also, MPJ has already shown a willingness to play with one year on his contract, for $3m. He might be okay with playing on the tag for $22m, and then again for $26m, and then going to free agency at 28 years old. All speculation on my part. I guess we'll see what happens, but I'm not freaking out about it.

If he can workout at his pro day, probably not.

I looked this up the other day and meant to post about it, but forgot. Pittman's agent has some heavy hitters on his roster. One of the biggest -- Deshaun Watson. He has several other guys who were or are the highest paid at their positions -- Derwin James, Jalen Ramsey, Michael Thomas, etc. Tee Higgins is one of his clients, so are Justin Fields, Xavier McKinney, and Micah Parsons.. So he'll be busy this offseason. The Colts have worked with him before. Eric Ebron, Malik Hooker. When Ballard says he's a good agent, I see why. I don't think any of that means anything about Pittman, but this agent has dealt with high profile departures, and doesn't seem like the type of guy to leave anything on the table if he doesn't have to. https://fanspo.com/nfl/agents/david-mulugheta/45657

I wouldn't call Pittman elite in those areas either. He does well in contested situations, but he's not posterizing defenders in the end zone. I'm not arguing that he's a WR1. However, these criteria seem cherry picked in a way to make the case for 2016 Edelman to be on a higher tier than I think he should be. Overall production, big play ability, commanding a double team, etc., all seem equally or more important. And the factor that goes case by case is the player's impact on the offense overall. Edelman played with Brady and Gronk (although in 2016, Gronk was hurt). His production with a GOAT level QB is the same as Pittman's with a journeyman backup. One thing I think Edelman has that Pittman doesn't is proven ability in big situations, but Pittman hasn't been in any big situations so far.

Just kind of highlights the difficulty, IMO, in talking about Pittman and other WRs. I think the criteria kind of changes depending on the player and the opinion.

Maybe I misunderstood csmopar then. I thought he was saying Pittman for Sneed + #32.

I think you'd be lucky to get either, and in an altered state of mind to expect both.

Wow. Edelman qualifies as a WR1, but Pittman doesn't? Do you have any non-vibe criteria? You call him dynamic, but we knock Pittman's dynamic ability because of his yards/catch, which are basically the same as Edelman's. Edelman was primarily a slot -- which means he didn't face #1 corners -- who got schemed open, was great after catch, and played with one of the most efficient QBs in NFL history, and alongside one of the most dominant TEs in history. And his statistical production in his best season is basically what people say is not good enough from Pittman in 2023, with a backup QB. That's a weird one for me. It's one thing to say he's a gamer and you'd rather have him on your team than Pittman. I could get that. But I don't get how he can qualify as a WR1, if Pittman doesn't. To me, neither of them do.

You're right, we don't have that kind of control. But now that the tag has been applied, it should be made clear to Pittman's agent that we're not trading him for peanuts. The tag compensation is two firsts, and that shouldn't be disregarded. In fact, the Colts could say 'we're not open to a trade for anything less,' just to make the point clear. But if they are open to other possibilities, then set the baseline for what we'd be willing to accept. Otherwise the Chiefs come calling saying 'Pittman wants to sign with us, we'll give you a conditional third,' and now the well is poisoned for everyone. I think this is why it's so rare for players to get moved on the tag. Unless it's a situation like the Chiefs and Snead, where both sides are apparently open to moving on and just using the tag to accommodate a trade. But the Colts want to keep Pittman, and have a reasonable offer on the table (we can assume).

The bolded is how I look at it. I think Bowers has the potential to be a top five TE, and I don't think I feel that way about anyone on our roster right now. I really like Woods, but he still has work to do to be a complete player, and his hamstrings have to cooperate. In general, I'm pretty resolutely against needs-based drafting. So if we're getting back a reserve TE who had nine catches in 12 games, it's not really changing the draft strategy, IMO.