Superman

Not necessarily. A different trade package can be negotiated between the two teams.

Yeah, I don't lump Dan Campbell in with Demeco Ryans. The Lions look legit, they have one of the hottest OCs in the league, and even their DC gets HC consideration. Ranking that coaching staff in the top tier is reasonable. And I have no problem with where they rank the Colts. 'Promising outlook, too early to tell, but optimistic' sounds exactly right for us. It's probably where the Texans staff should be, but they also have a really hot OC. The writer also acknowledges that it's probably not a fair estimation of the Texans, and more of a projection. Ultimately, this is about as valuable as a regular season power rankings list. But I don't take too much issue with how they rate the Colts staff. Not for now...

The increased cap makes it easier for every team to retain players. So while people might immediately think that the Colts' offseason gets a shot in the arm, the reality is this probably takes some free agents off the market. The only impact it has on the Colts is it makes it more likely that we keep Grover or Blackmon.

Yes, Spotrac is definitely missing some players. The OTC estimates are probably more accurate right now.

I don't think he's moving up either, but I think he just trusted his judgment on Richardson. The staff had done their work, they knew Richardson would be there at #4, and it worked out. And even though I don't see them moving back into the first round for a second bite this year, I wouldn't mind it. Let's say your guy Chop Robinson is there at #15 -- I'm not fully sold on him, but he definitely seems like a Ballard prospect -- it would make sense that he'd be the pick. And then if Brian Thomas is still available at #25, and they have a shot to move up, I think they should. But that's because I think they need to take a big step forward in roster quality this year. I don't think Ballard and Co. are necessarily going to approach this offseason the way that I think they should.

I think people are just making stuff up because the Niners front office has gone dark on them. No one knows who the Niners are considering at DC, it's been over a week and there are no leaks, and the speculation is pretty outsized given some of the available names -- Belichick, Vrabel, etc. The one guy's tweet was basically 'I don't know anything, but it might be soon,' and his basis is simply because the Combine is next week, so they must be getting close, right? And his mailbag article, where he names Bradley and Ulbrich, is just a bunch of guesses on his part. These reporters have to have engagement, but they have nothing to say about this because they don't know anything. There are no actual reports connecting Bradley or Ulbrich to the Niners. I think the only connection is this reporter thinks the Niners want someone from the old Seattle system, and Bradley fits that criteria. Same thing with Ulbrich, although he was actually on the Falcons staff with Shanahan. I doubt that any team would allow a coordinator to leave for a lateral move in late February. If the Niners want to trade for Gus Bradley, please let them do so -- I'll take one Brandon Aiyuk, please -- but any trade seems unlikely. So Bradley isn't going anywhere.

Yeah, not surprising. I don't think he's great against the run.

Tackling is not his strongest trait, but in the little I've seen I wouldn't call him deficient as a tackler. Also, it's hard not to like his effort. Just watch these clips from the NC game: https://clemsonwire.usatoday.com/lists/social-media-reacts-nate-wiggins-makes-an-incredible-effort-play-to-stop-a-north-carolina-touchdown/

It's hard to name any position that isn't one of need for the Colts. My early read on these guys: Arnold, the most complete and polished of the CB prospects in this class, athletic, good size, tough, competitive, a little handsy when he's beat but doesn't get beat a lot. He could easily be a top ten pick. Mitchell, going to be a Combine star, good tape but a lot of hype based on his traits. I'll be watching him more after the Combine, but I think we'll be hearing his name with a lot of top 10-15 projections. Wiggins, mostly traits and size, not sure about his long speed, has some production, seems like a good fit for the Colts defense but I don't get the feeling that he's a top 20 prospect. DeJean, probably a hybrid, his versatility and athleticism will be attractive, but ultimately he might be more of a safety than a CB in the NFL, which changes my opinion of his draft stock. And I don't know if he's outstanding enough to be a top 20 pick if he's going to play safety. Kool Aid, good size and athleticism, good speed, not as quick and fluid, physical and aggressive, seems like a prototypical Ballard/Bradley CB prospect. Maybe a juiced up version of Brents. Definitely a first round guy, but on a lower tier than Arnold and Mitchell. Any of these guys would fit our defense, but Wiggins and Kool Aid seem like they'd be the most obvious targets for the Colts. Add Kamari Lassiter to the conversation as well, but he's probably a late first kind of guy. I don't think Bowers falls. I think Brian Thomas Jr. is a top 20 prospect, and if the Colts want him, trading back is very risky. There are other receivers that could be in play. I also think someone like Chop Robinson is a prototypical Ballard prospect -- high level traits, not great production, but a high ceiling guy. Latu is the opposite -- highly productive, high motor, doesn't have the traits (athleticism/length), probably an over achiever, and a likely medical red flag. Jared Verse is the scheme fit with a moderate ceiling and decent production; Dallas Turner is the non-scheme fit with the higher ceiling. Neither Robinson nor Verse would surprise me for the Colts. Jerzhan Newton and Byron Murphy should be on people's radars also. I'd be surprised if the Colts took an OT, but there will be a couple who are worthy of the pick; this seems like a good draft for OTs. I doubt we take an interior OL. We obviously won't take a QB or a RB, there's no one to talk about at RB. Outside of those positions, I think virtually everything else is in play at #15.

Most of these mocks lately are all an exercise to get Bowers to the team to which they think he should go. It's pointless. I can't stand mock drafts, especially when my team is in the middle of the first round.

We saw a lot of bad QBing in 2023, and I think the common problem among struggling QBs is lack of pocket awareness. It seems like half of the QBs are panicking when their first read isn't open, and they run themselves into trouble. Brock Purdy has good pocket sense, but some of his pocket movement in the Super Bowl was problematic, he stepped into the rush several times, etc. And that's not normal for him. And the other half are oblivious to pressure, getting blown up by rushers that they should have been aware of at or even before the snap. Watch Minshew against the Ravens, for example. So I agree, high level pocket poise and awareness is very valuable for a QB. And it's hard to simulate in practice, so it can be hard for a QB to improve if he's not playing in a progression based system against high level competition. If that college coach has a guy who knows what to do vs pressure, he might have a good one on his hands.

He didn't fire Demeco Ryans or Robert Saleh. And Shanahan isn't in any trouble, so I don't understand why he would need to save his own behind in the first place. Contrary to what the knee jerk response would indicate, the Niners didn't get rid of Steve Wilks because they lost the SB. Wilks and Shanahan were not on the same page, and it was obvious at various points throughout the season. They saw things differently enough that it became public knowledge. Some Niners fans wondered if Wilks might be fired halfway through the season. I don't know if Wilks deserved to get fired, but I don't think he was thrown under the bus. And I don't think other DC candidates will worry about that either.

I think it's pretty far-fetched. And as it happened, there was no violence, so it also seems kind of sensational to keep bringing it up. People who say negative things about the couple hundred Colts fans who booed Luck are irrelevant. But still, that's not on Schefter. The way people reacted to the news he reported is not his responsibility. Even if people had rioted, their ridiculous and irresponsible behavior would be on them, not on the news, or the subject of the news, or the person who reported the news. This is incredibly unfair blame shifting. I understand not liking how/when the news came out. But you're blaming Schefter for something that didn't happen, and would not have been his fault even if it had happened. I wish Luck had been able to share his news on his own terms. But it's his fault -- mostly Luck, with some blame reserved for the Colts -- that the news came out the way it did. He shouldn't have told anyone outside of his tight inner circle, certainly not a week before he intended to announce it.

Yeah, even though I think Mahomes has transcendent talent and would still be good, he could be having a similar experience to Justin Herbert if he wound up in a different situation.

Yeah I saw that. Not exactly a ringing endorsement... I don't know how much I care about JSN's opinion, but that's definitely an interesting response. I also think there's some missing subtext there. There's a possibility that JSN has inside information about the Bears' plan at QB, or what Fields thinks, or even what Waldron thinks.

The "character" stuff is going to be a problem for some people. I personally think it's overblown; people love to knock good QB prospects. But it's something that any team will want to dig in on, for sure. If he's an entitled brat who can't handle adversity, then it's a problem. It's probably best for people who can actually talk to and interact with him to make the call on this, not Internet people who dislike that he hugged his mom after a loss. No doubt there's a lot of personality here, and if real scouts and decision makers get the wrong vibe from him, they'll have to trust their instincts. @chad72 I think it's different than the S2 stuff with CJ Stroud. I believe those scores were misreported, and Internet people ran with it. I think NFL teams that actually use S2 scores have a better understanding of what his scores were, and put them in the proper context. And that's why I think Chris Ballard was so vocal about people tearing down players on the basis of incomplete/inaccurate information. I doubt that affected any team's real evaluation of Stroud. I think the Williams stuff is going to be viewed differently. There's no question about his physical ability. All the tools are there, and if we were only talking about his physical ability, it's a slam dunk. He's one of the most impressive QB prospects of all time. Not ideal size, but there's no question in my mind that he can physically handle playing QB in the NFL. (We'll see how he measures, but he's probably slightly shorter than Patrick Mahomes, probably has bigger hands, and if he runs/jumps, I think his athletic testing would be more impressive.) The pure football question is about whether he can play within the structure of an NFL offense, while still being capable of creating big plays off structure when the situation calls for it. Is he able to make big plays when the opportunity is there, while still being effective, efficient, reliable, dependable for the rest of the game? Is he addicted to breaking the pocket, even when it's not called for? Can he take the easy the completion and keep the offense moving, or will he hold onto the ball waiting for the chance at a big play downfield? Will he take the checkdown on third and 12, or will he get sacked trying to create, and knock the team out of field goal range? I have recently watched some of his Oklahoma games in 2021, when he was a true freshman filling in and eventually taking over for Spencer Rattler. He was still dynamic and productive, but also more systematic and less prone to improvise. Makes sense for a younger player. His success in 2022 was a good indication of what his game looks like when he's properly balancing his desire to make plays with his responsibility to run the offense. (Look closely at the losses against Utah (x2) and Tulane. The defense refused to get a stop.) And it's my opinion that he relied on playmaking too much in trying to overcome negative situations in 2023, especially against good defenses. It's true that the 2023 USC OL was terrible, but it's also true that Williams held the ball too long and scrambled too recklessly. It's true that their defense couldn't stop good teams, but it's also true that he took too many chances with the ball and turned it over too often. Put him in the wrong situation, and just from a football standpoint, it might not go well. I have my doubts about the Bears being the right situation for any young QB, especially since Eberflus is probably on the hot seat. I don't know enough about their OC to have an opinion on whether he can create a good environment for a rookie QB, not to mention one who is both as dynamic and combustible as Caleb Williams can be. Put him in the right situation, and I think the sky's the limit.

Your point tracks logically, and makes sense. But expecting Gus Bradley to employ man coverage to a significant degree seems like misplaced hope.

So they tendered Baker as an ERFA, which is kind of automatic for players with less than three years service. If it were up to me, Baker would not have a great shot at making the roster, but there's no point in getting rid of him now. Either way, a low level retention like this doesn't seem like a strong indication of what will happen moving forward. I guess we'll see. But they also drafted Jaylon Jones, who started ten games by accident, and had some decent moments. It seems interesting to make a big deal out of a low level retention like Baker, but give no credit for a 7th round pick who probably wasn't expected to play a major role but held his own most of the season.

You're obviously entitled to your own opinion on this, but I disagree with the idea that there's anything morally wrong with what Schefter did. To the contrary, I think it would be lacking in integrity for any reporter to go consult with the subject of the story to figure out the most favorable way to put the news out. I think your hypothetical is pretty far-fetched, but the people who should have concerned themselves with the potential optics and outcome are Andrew Luck, and the Colts. They had several days to publish the news about his retirement before the media found out, and they didn't. If anyone is to blame, it's them. And if things had gotten out of hand, it would have been on Luck and the Colts for sitting on a major story, and for telling people before they were ready for the story to get out. Luck had days, more than a week, to announce his retirement, before Schefter reported it. In that time, he told a bunch of friends, family, and teammates that he was retiring. And that's how news gets leaked. For someone who was always very private with his personal life and wanted to control his own narrative, Luck really didn't think that one through. And to be clear, I'm not at all mad at him for retiring, or for the way it happened. So I'm not trying to be accusatory. I think the outrage is silly. But if anyone messed up the messaging, it's Luck and the Colts. Schefter reported a verified, accurate news story. That's literally what reporters are meant to do.

I had a back and forth with someone else a few weeks ago, and they brought up the difference between winning on the initial pass rush move vs winning on a counter or later in the play. I don't know where to find any kind of analysis on that, but it would be interesting to see. And I think there's a strong connection between good coverage and good pass rush, yet I think you need both. Your pass rush can't get home in less than two seconds on every down, but your pass coverage can't hold up for 4-5 seconds on every down. Sometimes I don't know what you're talking about. What Jones kid got a new contract? And was it a futures contract or an ERFA? I don't think they've done anything meaningful with anyone on the roster so far. I believe Irsay. And I think that's why Reich got the hook. But Ballard won't stick around much longer if the Colts aren't making serious noise in the next two seasons. I try not to set my expectations on the basis of my own wishes, but I think Bradley is under serious evaluation in 2024 also.

And the Jets had the worst QBing in the league.

To me, it goes without saying that BPA is not meant to be 100% literal. But I don't agree with eliminating positions from consideration in the first round, outside of QB, generally speaking. As an extreme, if the Colts were picking #1 this year, I would be very open to drafting a QB, but that's a different story, and I'm probably in the minority.

I guess my post is overly combative, my apologies. But responding to a comment about BPA with 'would you draft a QB in the first round??' is a serious oversimplification.

Why do people always say this, as if it's so insightful and astute? Of course your draft strategy gets reconciled with the state of your roster, to a reasonable degree.

Depends on how Cover 3/4/6 are taught and executed. It's kind of a principle of zone matching. But just playing 10 man zone with 1 DB in man coverage, you're probably undermining your coverage in general. And this is one of my beefs with soft zone coverage. We can engage receivers at the line, and still play bail coverage. That's why we like DBs who can run, right? So play Cover 4 without 8-10 yard cushion, and then you have some disguise, and some aggressiveness at the line of scrimmage. And depending on the route concepts, you could very easily wind up with your #1 DB running stride for stride with the #1 WR.