EastStreet
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I have zero clue about moving up or back, but I think we're a few upgrades away from competing for the SB. We need a pass rush (which I think will translate to making our DBs look better), and we need a stretch WR that can keep TY out of double coverage. Luck had to work way to hard last year to do what he did. Our DB's lives would be a hell of a lot easier with a little more pressure on the QB.
Luck isn't going to get younger, so I have think Ballard sees the next three years as prime opportunity to make a run. With the cap space, I was a little surprised we didn't go bigger in FA. I guess I just don't see (hope is more the word) us moving lower than 26 as the rush guys start to get thin in that space.
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On 3/16/2019 at 3:34 AM, Narcosys said:
So two people is his entire line? The pressures came from the middle. But let's ignore that.
And if you say stuff that needs to be dismissed, then yes I will dismiss it. He's also had two years to play since coming out of college.
Nothing those scouts said have anything to do with the discussion about how his oline gave up 39 hits in a 5 week period. That his oline gave up tons of pressures, of which he was the best qb under pressure.
His play this season already proved some of those comments wrong such as leading with his foot, accuracy on intermediate and deep balls, standing in pocket, ball carrying. But let's not give credit to a qb that's had two years to develop.
that's one more person than our entire line.
you're ignoring the fact that any QB who dances around and holds the ball longer is going to take more hits, and get pressured more. that is logic 101. he did that in college, and he still does it.
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On 3/16/2019 at 2:54 AM, shastamasta said:
I am with you in regards to Funchess. I have watched him since Michigan (Michigan fan here). I want him to succeed. I will be rooting for him every Sunday. But I can't ignore the past...or even last season.
A big selling point for him is that Luck loves big WRs. But is really that true? His favorite WR is a guy under 6 feet who is fast...and gets open. He excelled with Reggie who wasn't a big WR...because he got open. Yes he excelled with Ebron...but that's mainly because he got open against mismatches.
That's not really Funchess. I am not sure when Luck became this QB that likes to chuck it up to a big WR and let him come down with it...or this guy that likes to throw contested passes. He's cerebral...he goes through his reads and finds the open man. That's what makes him so damn good.
Moncrief had similar issues. Last season, Grant was basically phased out of the offense cause he couldn't separate or get open.
Obviously the coaches know better and see something that he can bring...I just have major reservations about what that is vs. what I they need. Hopefully some combo of Cain and a draft pick/s can provide that.
I hope Reich figures a way to use him to mask his issues and take advantage of his strengths. The weird thing about his drop issues, is that they typically happen on good passes to the numbers. His "body" catching challenges are well documented. He is pretty darn good at times making circus catches well away from his body. It's not very often a guy can change habits, or the way he fundamentally catches the ball. And it's not like we can expect Luck to try and throw differently to one WR.
I do think he could end up being a big help in the RZ. I just don't see him meeting WR2 type production in between the 20s. Reich turned Ebron into a TD machine by tripling his RZ targets (compared to his days in Detroit). While having two big targets in the RZ is nice, I think it's just shifting production from Ebron to Funchess. He does seem to get a little more separation across the middle (than perimeter), so perhaps they'll pit him vs LBs and up his slot snaps.
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31 minutes ago, krunk said:
If Ajayi is healthy hed make a good combination with Mack. I think hes a slasher as well as a bruiser. The kind of runner we need in the committee. Im not sure where hes at with the ACL.
I'd be fine with him as a replacement for Williams. He'd be an upgrade IF he's healthy.
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32 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
Frank said he can handle a few drops.
Devin hasn't been that bad. Quit over reacting and go look at the tape of him.
Do you have a problem with everyone who doesn't pump sunshine about Funchess?
Good lord. You like him. That's your right. Others think differently, and that's their right.
Stats and past performance won't change your mind, and your stat-less opinions aren't going to change anyone's mind either. DogDew will cheer hard for DF to succeed once the season starts, and that's all that matters.
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I don't see Williams making it to 26, and I don't see Ballard going anything but best available Edge Or DT with the first pick.
CB is at best our 3rd or 4th biggest need. I could see them taking one with the second pick if the right guy is available though.
Was hoping that we would address at least S in FA, and maybe even CB. Bummer.
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7 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:
The Colts total offense was rated 7th in the league with what we had last season so I think you are using numbers again to trash the Funchess signing.
As far as rolling the dice that is what every GM does very season so it's business as usual.
What Luck did with a rag tag WR2 and WR3 by committee was remarkable. No other team in the top 10-15 O did so much with a WR group ranked so bad. That said, Luck had to work twice as hard to do it. If you can't see the value of true stretch the field WR2, I'm not sure what to tell you. Every scout and talking head has said the Colts need a true #2, and just about every scout and talking head has been critical/meh of the Funchess signing.
Like I said, I hope he does very well and turns his career around. But I'm not going to ignore past performance and blow sunshine out of my rear end just to be "positive". I'm a realist that values critical thinking based on facts. That doesn't mean Funchess won't turn it around and be a stud.
If you want to ignore data and past performance, and pump sunshine, feel free. It's your right.
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7 minutes ago, Narcosys said:
I didn't say he holds on to it too long, that was @Jared Cisneros
But anyways, you first claim he holds onto it to long because he scrambles, and blaming the qb for that rather than the O Line that forces him to scramble. Now you say he holds to long which makes it harder on the OLine, and again blaming the qb. Two different arguments with different logical conclusions.
And again, your keep claiming top 5 stat but your source ONLY uses sacks. That is not, in any way, feasible to use as the basis of your argument.
Fact is KC was bottom of the barrel for hits and pressures. No matter how much you try to put all the blame on Mahomes, it's just not factually accurate, his time to throw stat is skewed by the fact he is able to scramble and make throws, not that he just holds it while in the pocket.
He was the best QB under pressure, that's a fact too.
You ignore advanced stats, common sense logic, and KC's 2 OTs that are All Pro and Pro Bowl.
Mahomes has always been a dancer in the pocket who tries to buy time for the big play.
Since anything I write is dismissed, perhaps you will give more credence to what the Pro scouts said about him coming out of college (which is the exact same point I'm making). Here's his NFL Combine report.
"Can be inconsistent in his approach. Needs to play inside the offense and show more discipline. Too eager to go big game hunting. Ravenous appetite for the explosive play can also bring unwanted trouble. Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm. Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him. Decision making can go from good to bad in a moment's notice. Operates from a narrow base and allows his upper body and arm to race ahead of his feet. Has a dip and wind-up in his standard release. Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail. Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls. Carries ball a little low in the pocket. Impatient. Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm. Better as a scrambler than pure runner. Looked a little less mobile in the open field this season.
BOTTOM LINE
Mahomes is a big, confident quarterback who brings a variety of physical tools to the party, but he's developed some bad habits and doesn't have a very repeatable process as a passer. Mahomes' ability to improvise and extend plays can lead to big plays for his offense, but he will have to prove he can operate with better anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him in order to win from the pocket. Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he's a high ceiling, low floor prospect."
I'm sure you will dismiss the above too. I know, I get it. The sky is orange.
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21 minutes ago, shastamasta said:
Not a huge Renfrow fan. I want a guy that get YAC. And I think Dortch is that player...and he can return kicks. If he had elite speed...I think he is being talked about as a Day Two pick. He has tremendous vision.
I truly can see Renfrow going to the Pats and killing it.
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3 minutes ago, shastamasta said:
I think you can possibly get a slot type WR late in the draft. My preference would be Isabella...but he will likely go somewhat early. And I would rather use that early pick on a bigger WR with a more broad skill set.
In that case, I am looking at a guy like Stanley Morgan on Day 4...or possibly a guy like Greg Dortch (one of my favorite sleepers) late on Day 4.
I'd love to know how Cain is progressing. Since they are pumping sunshine with the vids of his comeback, I have to assume things are going well. His status could change a lot either way.
I think there will be some good values late as well. I think Hurd will be a steal for someone. Was a freak at UT before he left (wanted to change from RB to WR) for Baylor. 6-4 and runs 4.45ish. Dortch and Renfrow will be very interesting too.
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2 minutes ago, shastamasta said:
I want a legit Z and a legit Y. I think they can get both in this draft. Throw Cain/Fountain into the mix...and see who emerges from that group.
I'd love to have both too, but I don't see it happening. Assuming we don't address in FA, Edge, iDL, and CB will likely get addressed in the first 4 picks / 3 rounds. I'm just hoping for one of those first 3 picks / 2 rounds we get a WR.
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56 minutes ago, stitches said:
Campbell and Isabella are both players that can stretch the defense. Both are 4.31 athletes. Isabella has shown that he can win on the outside not just in the slot. Campbell is a bit more of a projection, because he played almost exclusively in the slot in college but... oh well...
I guess I still don't think Rogers is good enough for what we want to be and I still think the value at WR is too good to pass up in this draft. I guess we will see in about 40 days or so.
I just prioritize the need outside and opposite to TY, to slot. If we don't stretch the D opposite TY, it's gonna be a frustrating year.
We've got a lot of guys that can play or transition to slot that might be an upgrade to Rogers. Rogers though did improve last year, and had a good catch rating. I'd love to see Funchess work in the slot a lot, as opposed to the perimeter. Think we will see increased targets to Hines.
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1 hour ago, Narcosys said:
To the bolded....Which means he isn't pressured, like I said. and that mahomes is pressured more, like I said.
Why is Mahomes out of the pocket? Because he is pressured out! But yet KC has a great Oline? If Mahomes is so bad on time to throw and how long he holds on to the ball, and it is related to pressure, the pressure is allowed by the Oline. You are literally supporting my argument and then not even understanding what you are saying.
Again, nobody in this discussion cares about the run stats when comparing QBs. This whole discussion is about QBs. You are bringing up things that have nothing to do with the conversation. You are saying top 5, by only looking at one stat (sacks), that doesn't even come close to actually communicating how good the Oline is in protecting the QB and allowing Time to Throw.
Show me pressures and show me hits, or you prove nothing that supports your argument. Your best support for your argument is Sacks and run blocking. Slow clap for you.
forget about runs stats comparison.
when a QB gets the ball out quick, it makes things easier on the OL, and harder on the Ds to get pressures. let's forget that you were dead wrong saying Luck holds onto the ball too long. Luck's quick passing helps our OL look good.
Mahomes is slow to get the ball out, yet his OL is ranked very good (5th) in pass blocking. He's making it hard on his OL by taking longer, yet they still are top 5. that means his OL is working much harder than Indy's OL. And any QB holding the ball that long is going to get pressured and hit more. YET KC IS RANKED 5TH BEST in PASS PRO.
PFF top 100 players at end of year 2018 listed Mitchell Schwartz (who was 2018 AP ALL PRO, as the 35 best player in the league. Quentin Nelson only ranked 86th. Eric Fisher, KC's other OT, was a 2018 Pro Bowl pick. So help me understand how both your tackles get awards like AP All Pro and Pro Bowl, and they're bad..... good grief. Indy only had one OL guy on those list (Q).
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24 minutes ago, stitches said:
Yeah, I feel like a lot of our receivers go through the slot, that's part of what Reich wants when seeking to create and abuse mismatches. Thanks for pointing out Rogers was slot in most of his snaps, but take note that those are just his snap and he only was on the field for about 50% of the teams' snaps. So in reality he was slot for about 30-35% of the Colts snaps. We will have others playing from the slot too. Also... if we draft a slot receiver high and he shows good skill to begin with, IMO Rogers will take a back seat.
i'm well aware of the math lol.
i don't see the colts adding another slot.
i can see funchess spending increasing time at the slot.
but i don't see Rogers straying a bunch from slot (as a % of his snaps).
IMO, what we need most, is a legit Z that can stretch the field, and take the double coverage of TY at X. If we do go that direction, the guys currently at X will either lose snaps, or find snaps at slot (or as overall depth).
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27 minutes ago, Narcosys said:
But Mahomes isn't a scrambling QB, he only scrambles when forced. He's not like Cam Newton, RG3, or those other running QBs. He had more hits, therefore pressured even more than his hits. Yet he still threw for more yards, more TDs and ran for more yards and more yards per attempt.
Why are you comparing run stats for an O-line when we're talking about QB protection. One has nothing to do with the other. If we were comparing RBs then you'd have a point, but we aren't. That's why you had to subtract the QB from conversation, just so you could continue to argue that KC's line was just as good as the Colts. When it's just not true. Pull up stats for pressures and hits allowed for the lines, pull up scrambles and scramble yards (don't want to take into account QB run plays). Your pass blocking only takes into account sacks, which does not even come close to supporting your statement, when they allowed far more hits and pressures than the Colts. Their 39 hits ranked them 24th while Colts were tied for 2nd. You don't get hits unless you pressure the QB, but a pressure doesn't mean a hit. So it is safe to assume their pressures are even high than their hits.
I have brought up the most relevant stat to the discussion, yet you continue to say KC has a similar Oline.
Luck was not injured for season was he? He played all 16 games correct? He was practicing all offseason yes? Then you have no point there. You cannot measurably "give him a little break."
Keep spinning....
Mahomes is not a run first QB (never said he was). He is a very frequent scrambler to avoid the sack and buy time.
He is ranked 8th in TT (Time to Throw - basically how long he holds onto the ball), which is a prime indicator for "scrambling" QBs.
By the way, Luck is ranked 31st in TT (which means he is one of the best at getting the ball out fast). And this is what started this conversation (I said Luck did not hold onto the ball too long)
The higher the TT, the higher the sacks typically. So, Mahomes holds onto the ball a lot longer than most, spend a lot of time outside the pocket which increases his risk of sacks, but KC's OL is bad. LOL.
And I communicated run stats to show you that the two OLs rated similar without any of the QB nonsense you're spinning. Looking at simple pass blocking rating (with the QB), as I said, both were top 5, but you don't want to acknowledge that either. So per the stats, in both pass blocking, and run blocking, the OLs are similar.
Anyway..... By every meaningful stat, the OLs are very similar. GMs and Coaches, as well as all the talking heads use these same stats. So everyone in the business uses them. If you want to ignore clear data, that's on you dude. But you look pretty silly.
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3 minutes ago, stitches said:
I don't know who will end up being the starters at the end of the season but you don't pay someone 13M a year to sit him on the bench. I think at the very least they will try to make it work for 4-5-6 weeks before they give up in case it doesn't work. I'm not saying it won't work... it very well might - Luck loves himself those big targets. Funchess is a TE convert. So yeah... IMO it will be TY and Funchess starting. I want to see what we do with the draft... I can absolutely see us taking someone like Parris Campbell or Deebo Samuel or Andy Isabella to complete our starting core. Hell, all of those(including TY and Funchess) can be moved around and used in variety of ways and from variety of formations. That's the definition of multiple and what was the first thing that Reich said about the offense he wants to run - uptempo, multiple offense.
So ideally it would be something like:
X - TY, Cain, Pascal
Z - Funchess, Rogers
slot - Campbell/Samuel/Isabella
With Cain and Rogers/Pascal? coming off the bench or... if Cain beats off the rookie for the starting spot, I wouldn't mind that either... TY can be moved around for the formation to make more sense in that case.
Rogers will be your primary slot guy. IIRC, 70% of his snaps were from the slot last year, and it was his best year to date. Funchess, Pascal, and Inman all had around 15% slots snaps last year too. I'd bet that Funchess spends more and more time at slot as the year progresses.
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5 minutes ago, Narcosys said:
And that is something you cannot do when comparing objectively. This is why it is impossible to debate with people who cannot objectively compare things. No I do have a clue...Colts had the better line yes? I still don't get your point. KC had the worse line of the two and Mahomes had to scramble more.
Mahomes led the league in TDs when pressured, and 4th for YPA when pressured. Which your FO site does not take into account the amount of hits or pressures Mahomes had. I would like to find a site that shows how many times a QB was hit or pressured for drop backs (for the season) and compare exactly what we're talking about here.
What I have found is that from week 9 to week 14 the Colts allowed 19 hits...in that same time span, KC allowed 39 hits, and you want to sit there and tell me that KC had the superior O-line? Hits will correlate with pressures, therefore Mahomes was unquestionably pressured more than Luck. Hence why I say his mobility is better than Lucks.
Assuming an equal line, a scrambling QB that holds onto the ball longer will be hit much more than QB that does not, yes or no? More time with the ball, and more time with the ball outside the pocket will translate into more hits.
Let's subtract the QB from the conversation for a minute. The stat RBYards (yards per carry), PowerSuccess (success rate on 3rd or 4th down, when 2 yards or less is needed), and StuffRate (% of time a play was stuffed at or behind the line). KC ranked higher in 2 or 3. KC was also much better ranked (11th vs 22nd) in OpenYards (carry's of more than 10 yards), while IND was slightly better in 5-10 yard carries.
In short, both lines are very good. KC a bit better vs the run. Both are rated in the top 5 in pass blocking. Given Mahomes creates more risk of sack by his nature/style, the fact that KC is top 5 means they are pretty damn good.
And on injuries.... Injuries are facts. Objective thinking takes facts into account.
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13 minutes ago, sreeb2deeni said:
It sounds as though most here believe he could help and that he could had for a reasonable price. I agree, but isn't the problem going to be that all other 31 teams are making the same evaluations and they may be willing to outspend the Colts.
Lots of factors to weigh with Houston. Draft is deep with Rush guys. Houston is aging and coming off injury. He might be a guy that goes quick, or a guy who goes post draft. I'd think teams would want to work him out for sure.
A lot also depends on what he wants/prioritizes. Is he all about money or does he want to go to a good place with SB potential. Indy is pretty attractive to some. Others will just follow the dollars.
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1 minute ago, pacolts56 said:
Guess I started a pointless thread by forgetting about Crowell’s instagram deal... and I didn’t know he flaked his way off the team at Georgia.
I swear.... you need a score card to keep up with this off-field crap anymore.
Anyway.... I’d still like to see Ballard unearth a power/smash mouth RB to add that element to our ground game.
I'm sure if he's coming to visit, Ballard is doing his homework.
If Ballard thinks he has his head on straight, he might be worth it on a prove it type reasonable deal. I'm all for second and third chances. He just has some major flags. Some people do learn, and change. Some not so much. It's a long shot IMO. I do love a good news story where kids/guys turn things around.
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1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:
I don't ignore stats, the problem with talking to people on the internet is that they'll go to the ends of the Earth to look up something that fits their argument, no matter how obscure or convoluted it is. 99% of football fans would have no idea what you are talking about, maybe 10 people on this forum knew what you are talking about, and you would have no idea what you looked up if you were talking to another fan face-to-face because no one thinks to memorize obscure things like advanced stats.
It's just like WAR in baseball. I know what it is, but I don't say player x had 5 WAR last year to a random fan. Most of the time they'll give me a crazy look.
I've followed advanced stats for CFB and NFL for a long time. Most of my friends are stat guys who follow too. I don't have every stat memorized, but I know in general where all our guys stand in most major categories compared to the league. Advanced stats are easy to find.
Sorry if it's too much for you.
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56 minutes ago, akcolt said:
We are going to start Hilton and Funchess . If TY misses time here or there Funchess can hold down the WR1 in a pinch. Chester will be back his history with Luck and PR skills give him an inside track to a roster. Those are our top 3 WR’s right now.
We have a lot of young guys fighting for a chances. Pascal Fountain Cain Johnson Ishmael and Hogan are all young talented guys. Unlike years past I am interested to see the strides these young guys have made with coaching. I feel like these coaches can/will develop players and I’m hoping to see it.
It will be interesting to see what we do with Inman. There is no question he gave us a spark last year but he’s 30 heading into the season. Is he part of the future? Do we want him taking reps from our younger players? Guys can’t grow without playing. We are growing our own.
Will we add to the group via the draft? I don’t think that’s a given not early in the draft at least. There are a few guys I’d like to get but I think we like the young guys we have. Could we see another FA signing? I think that’s less likely but anything is possible. CB will keep churning this group with the necessary patience.
IMO, if we don't add, we're rolling the dice in a major way. Compare our combined WR production rating with any top 10 O. Our WR unit ranks worst by a wide margin. And all we've done this far is is add the 81st WR to our team. Not saying Funchess will fail, and certainly not cheering for him to suck, but it would be rolling the dice.
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10 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:
I'm sure teams are, and why he isn't signed yet. What number will he and teams agree to? Eventually he'll come down enough to get a contract. He was due 32 million over the next 2 years in KC, and wouldn't agree to a pay reduction (making him untradeable too). Thus he was cut.
His knee injury history (and hamstring) are a concern, and he hasn't recorded double digit sacks since he signed his mega deal in 2014. I think there is some gas in the tank, and would fulfill a nice rotational role for some team (is that the Colts?) at the right (lower) price.
I'd be very happy with a starter that was solid and got at least 7 or 8 sacks so long as he's strong vs the run too. He should be reasonable IMO given age and last year's injury.
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1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:
He held it too long Vs KC in the playoffs, which was what the conversation had turned into. Luck was getting his passes tipped, just not sacked, which is why we were punting early and lost the game. Also, I don't look at FO, as it is pretty irrelevant to me. 99% of people I know don't care about "advanced stats" for an O-Line. Don't make excuses for injuries either.
KC led the league in sacks. What do you expect. And KC did sack Luck 3 times (again, you're wrong).
If you ignore stats, you're ignoring simple fact and data. And that's pretty silly. And ignore injury, LOL. That makes sense.
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2 minutes ago, Narcosys said:
Number of sacks does not directly correlate with mobility. Luck had a better O-line. However, Mahomes had better scrambles than luck. Mahomes had 272 yards with a 4.5 average while Luck only had 148 for 3.2. Mahomes had to scramble more, and was able to gain more yards than Luck when he had to scramble.
You have to put your arguments in to context and weigh them proportionally.
And in one of his losses he had 478 yards and 6 TDs. Another loss was against a divisional opponent that held him to 243 yards (his season lowest) and two TDs with 0 INT. At the same time Luck had 4 games under 243 yards. So Mahomes worst game was still better than a quarter of Lucks entire season. Games against the likes of the Redskins (2 TD, 2INT), the Eagles who were 9-7, and the Raiders (where he had only 239 yards while Mahomes had 285 and 291 against them).
Nobody is crowning Mahomes anything. The question is not whether he would do better without an A-List cast, it is would he do just as well as Luck on the Colts. I believe the answer is yes. This is because they are near even in skills that are not impacted by their team (Accuracy, Mobility, Arm Strength, Pocket Awareness).1) you obviously have zero clue about KC's line. See above, and check out FO advanced stats.
2). The game Luck had under 250 yards.
Buffalo - #1 ranked passing D
Jax - #2 ranked passing D
Dallas - #7 in total D
the other was in the first few games of the year with Luck coming off an injury year. I'll give him little break.
Hypothetical Mega Trade
in Colts Football
Posted
the first ranking was preseason (they ranked KC and Indy 16th and 17th). the second (week 9) ranked them top 10 and called out their All Pro tackle for having a bad game. The end ranked them 13th, just outside of the top 1/3. Nether rankings are "bad". And their end of year rankings in OF are damn good.
All of this still doesn't address the fact that Mahomes was, and is a dancer who holds on to the ball longer than most QBs (setting himself up for pressures/hits, and making it harder for his line). Compare hold time to pressures/sacks/line rankings, and there's a very strong correlation.