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Caleb3502

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  1. Congrats on becoming a dad, that's awesome man! I think the salary projections are pretty fair. Pittman is going to get somewhere between $21M-$25M in my opinion. PFF said like $6.5M for Kenny but I think it will be closer to $10M. Grover is probably getting between $11M-$14M so I think that's a fair number as well. I'd probably bring Blackmon back on a 1 year deal at least. I thought he had a pretty solid year, but I understand the injury concerns. I feel like the D-Line needs to be addressed in FA or early in the draft. They could use another pass rusher and their depth behind Buckner and Grover is pretty much nonexistent. It's hard to cover every single need but I do think they need more help there. Would love Bowers and I like the Pearsall pick. I believe Pearsall had a 9.78 RAS, so he's definitely on Ballard's radar. If Bowers is gone by #15, I think Brian Thomas Jr might be the move, though he might be gone as well. For me, I'm looking at Thomas Jr, Bowers, Arnold, Mitchell, and Murphy II for the 15th pick.
  2. For contract projections and the list of free agents, I used Spotrac. I used Overthecap to keep track of cap space. I used the Draft Network’s prospect information tabs to research more about the draft prospects. I used PFF’s mock draft simulator and big board to get a rough idea of what rounds each prospect is expected to go as of now (a lot will change post-combine). 2024 Cap Space (per Overthecap): $72,337,573 | Cap Space in 2025: $149,231,062 Releases TE Mo Alie-Cox - Saves $5,920,000 TE Andrew Ogletree - Saves $870,452 2024 Cap Space after Releases: $79,128,025 | 2025 Cap Space after Releases: $150,375,610 Notes - MAC just isn’t worth paying nearly $6M per year. Maybe he comes back on a pay cut. - Ogletree’s release is due to the off-the-field issue Re-sign Unrestricted Free Agents DE Genard Avery S Julian Blackmon - 2 Years/$14.5M ($500K Roster Bonus in 2024 & 2025 | 2024 Cap Hit: $6.5M | 2025 Cap Hit: $8M) DT Taven Bryan LB Ronnie Harrison - 1 Year/$1.25M DE Tyquan Lewis DE Jacob Martin WR Isaiah McKenzie QB Gardner Minshew - 2 Years/$13M (2024 Salary of $6.5M Fully Guaranteed) CB Kenny Moore II - 2 Years/$21M (2024 Salary Fully Guaranteed | $1.5M Roster Bonus in 2025 | 2024 Cap Hit: $10M | 2025 Cap Hit: $11M) RB Zack Moss - 2 Years/$9M (2024 Cap Hit: $4M | 2025 Cap Hit $5M) G Danny Pinter WR Michael Pittman Jr. - 4 Years/$92M ($44M Guaranteed and $24M in Signing Bonus | 2024 Cap Hit - $20M | 2025 Cap Hit: $22.5M | 2026 Cap Hit: $24M | 2027 Cap Hit: $25.5M | $44M Guaranteed = 2024 Salary + Signing Bonus) P Rigoberto Sanchez - 2 Years/$5M DT Grover Stewart - 3 Years/$36M ($16.5M Guaranteed | $6M in Signing Bonus | $2.5M Roster Bonus in 2026 | 2024 Cap Hit - $10.5M | 2025 Cap Hit: $12M | 2026 Cap Hit: $13.5M | $16.5M Guaranteed = 2024 Salary + Signing Bonus) Restricted FAs C Jack Anderson RB Trey Sermon WR Juwann Winfree Exclusive-Rights FAs S Henry Black 2024 Cap Space Remaining: $24,735,491 | 2025 Cap Space: $82,875,610 Notes - Blackmon had a really solid year at SS. Not sure how much the injury will affect his market, but I think around $7M/year is fair for him. - Could definitely see Tyquan Lewis come back on another 1-year deal, but for now, I decided to let him walk to have more money to spend in free agency for an EDGE upgrade. - Starting to think that Minshew might get more in free agency than I would be willing to pay, but I would have him back at $6.5M/year. He obviously has his limitations but it’s good to have a backup you know you can win games with. - PFF projects Moore to get 2 years/$13.5M, but I think he gets closer to $10M/year after having a bounceback campaign. - It’s very possible Moss walks in free agency, but I decided to bring him back with the cap increase. - I don’t think MPJ makes it to free agency. He’ll either sign a deal or get tagged. I’m expecting between $21M and $24M per year for him. The passing game looked hopeless in Atlanta without - him. Richardson needs a consistent and reliable offensive weapon. - Most likely Stewart’s last big payday at 30 years old. Him and MPJ are probably are most important re-signs this off-season. What he provides in the run game as one of the better 1-techs in the NFL is hard to replace. Free Agents DE Dorance Armstrong Jr. - 3 Years/$26M ($16.5M Guaranteed | $9M Signing Bonus | $1.5M Roster Bonus in 2026 | 2024 Cap Hit - $7.5M | 2025 Cap Hit: $8.75M | 2026 Cap Hit: $9.75M | $16.5 Guaranteed = 2024 Salary + Signing Bonus) Despite a team record of 51 sacks in 2023, the pass rush can still be improved upon. Guys like Hunter and Burns are getting $20M+ and guys like Huff and Greenard will most likely command $15M+. I don't see Ballard going way over $10M/year for an outside free agent. If he goes after EDGE in free agency, I'm expecting it's someone like Armstrong Jr with an Ebukam-type deal. Armstrong Jr, had a career high in tackles last year (38) and has had at least 7.5 sacks each of the last two years. Armstrong Jr would provide more help off the edge and would rotate in at LEO with Ebukam. WR K.J. Osborn - 2 Years/$15M (2024 Cap Hit: $7M | 2025 Cap Hit: 8M) Osborn lined up 50/50 in the slot and outside (405 plays in the slot and 368 plays on the outside). The Colts need more help from the WR group in stretching the field, and Osborn has proven to be a viable option in the deep passing game. I’m not completely out on Alec Pierce yet. I do think he can rebound with Richardson back at QB, but they need insurance at that position. When Pittman was out for the Atlanta game, the WR corp was a mess. Mike Evans, Gabe Davis, and Darnell Mooney would all command too much in free agency. They could be in play if MPJ somehow walks, but otherwise, we’d be looking at WRs projected to make less than $10M/year. S Alohi Gilman - 2 Years/$8M (2024 Cap Hit: $3.5M | 2025 Cap Hit: $4.5M) After 3 underwhelming seasons to begin his career, Gilman broke through in 2023, setting career highs in tackles (73), interceptions (2), and forced fumbles (3). Contract projections for him are around $3M/year, which seems low, but that may be because of the safety market in general. Chargers are also at -$25M in cap space, so they might have some trouble retaining their in-house free agents. After a disappointing year from Rodney Thomas, FS and safety in general is a primary need. Gilman would give the Colts a more reliable option at FS at an affordable rate. If they don’t address safety in free agency, they would have to grab someone like Tyler Nubin or Kam Kinchens on Day 2 of the draft. DT Tim Settle - 1 Year/$3.25M Buckner and Stewart are excellent, but there isn’t anything behind them. Taven Bryan was underwhelming, and Adebawore and Johnson are still young and unproven. Settle has experience at both 3-tech and 1-tech. TE Charlie Woerner - 1 Year/$2M One of the better run-blocking tight ends. Woerner is the Alie-Cox replacement. Woerner doesn’t offer much in the passing game but has been a reliable and consistent blocker for successful rushing attacks in San Francisco. T Brandon Parker - 1 Year/$1.25M Depth signing for competition. With Braden Smith’s injuries and Blake Freeland’s struggles, it would probably be wise to add some tackle depth this off-season. 2024 Cap Space Remaining: $6,136,736 | 2025 Cap Space: $61,625,610 Colts Key Free Agents in 2025 DT DeForest Buckner C Ryan Kelly DE Kwity Paye DE Dayo Odeyingo LB Zaire Franklin LB E.J. Speed G Will Fries NFL Draft Round 1 Pick 15: DT Byron Murphy II - Texas I’ve been under the impression that it’s WR or CB in the 1st, but I think DT is in play at #15. With Buckner in the last year of his deal (I think he’ll be here moving forward, but he does come with a big price tag), the Colts need more help along the interior defensive line. Even if Buckner and Stewart are here for the foreseeable future, they need someone who can rotate in and make an impact. Murphy II is short for a 3-tech at 6’1” (Buckner is 6’7”), but has the strength and quickness to shed blocks in the pass and the run game. Despite his height, he has the athleticism and physical tools to be a disruptive force along the D-Line. Murphy II is the #1 DT in the class right now and should test well at the combine. There’s a real chance he’s not available at #15. But if he is, he deserves consideration. TRADE Colts Receive #52, #100 Rams Receive: #46, #150 *Round 2 Pick 52: WR Devontez Walker - North Carolina I considered Brian Thomas Jr in the 1st round but decided to wait until Day 2 for a WR. I’m not completely out on Alec Pierce, but it would be wise to invest an early pick in someone who can be a legitimate deep threat like Walker, who has great acceleration and speed. Catching is a bit of a concern, as Walker had a drop rate of 8.5% (For reference, Josh Downs’ drop rate was 2%, MPJ’s was 2.8%, and Alec Pierce’s was 6.4%). His route tree would also need refinement, as he’s limited right now to routes where he’s running in stride. He can come in and make an impact as a Z deep-threat WR, but he has the potential to be a starting-caliber #2 WR if he can expand and polish his route running. Round 3 Pick 82: CB Cam Hart - Notre Dame Brents and Jones both showed flashes as rookies, but there’s not much behind them on the depth chart, and the secondary certainly had its struggles in 2023. Corner probably needs to be addressed on either Day 1 or Day 2. I initially mocked Quinyon Mitchell in the 1st round but decided to go DT instead. Hart meets the Ballard CB requirements: long arms (32 ⅝ inches), tall (6’3”), team captain. Hart is a versatile corner with the ability to play both man and zone. He’s a willing tackler but could use improvement in the run game. *Round 3 Pick 100: TE Ben Sinnott - Kansas State The Colts have struggled to find consistent production from the TE position over the last couple of years. Jelani Woods showed flashes as a rookie, but we did not see him at all last year due to injury setbacks. Sinnott lined up all over the field for Kansas State (fullback, H-back, in-line, detached TE, slot WR, and outside WR). Not a dominant in-line blocker, but is an effective run blocker on the perimeter. Sinnott is an effective route runner from multiple alignments and would give the Colts another receiving option at TE. I would not be opposed to Brock Bowers at #15, but I think he’ll be grabbed by someone before #15. TRADE Colts Receive: #130, #190 Vikings Receive: #118 Round 4 Pick 130: LB Michael Barrett - Michigan Franklin and Speed have both been solid LBs, but the Colts could use a better coverage LB in the group. Ronnie Harrison, a converted safety, is probably their best coverage LB. Barrett is regarded as one of the better coverage LBs in the draft, displaying excellent zone coverage awareness and good speed to close in on receivers. He is not the greatest run defender and probably not a full-time starter, but his range as a coverage LB would be useful in numerous passing-down alignments. Round 5 Pick 150: WR Isaiah Williams - Illinois I can see the Colts doubling down on WR in the draft. The Colts could use some more help at slot WR, where Josh Downs is pretty much the only true slot WR on the roster. Williams has exceptional speed, acceleration, and change of direction. Williams racked up numerous YAC at Illinois, an area the Colts need to improve upon in 2024. *Round 6 Pick 190: EDGE Jasheen Davis - Wake Forest More help at EDGE. Davis adds some speed to the pass rush. He’s quick off the line and has good speed and agility to close in on the QB. Sill raw as a pass rusher, though I suppose that is to be expected of an EDGE prospect taken on Day 3. Round 6 Pick 193: IOL Tannor Bortolini - Wisconsin Played all 5 positions along the O-Line at Wisconsin, though projects as an interior OL for a zone-blocking offense in the NFL. Played over 1,900 snaps in college, so he comes with experience. He could be an upgrade over Wesley French or provide some depth behind Quenton Nelson and Will Fries. Round 7 Pick 232: OT Brandon Coleman - TCU Tackle depth to add competition for Brandon Parker and Blake Freeland. Coleman is an athletic lineman with long arms that excels in zone-blocking. Draft Pick Values (per Overthecap) #15 = $3,449,556 | #52 = $1,426,919 | #82 = $1,029,219 | #100 = $1,026,492 | #130 = $998,133 | #150 = $981,945 | #190 = $894,606 | #193 = $848,407 | #232 = $825,136 Rookie Pool = $11,390,413 Cap Space Needed to Sign Draft Picks = $11,390,413 - (795,000*9) = $4,228,258 Cap Space Remaining After the Draft = $1,908,476 Roster Bold = Free Agent/Trade Acquisition Italics = Rookie Offense QB: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger RB: Jonathan Taylor, Zack Moss, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson, Zavier Scott WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Devontez Walker, Ashton Dulin, Ethan Fernea WR: K.J. Osborn, Alec Pierce, D.J. Montgomery, Terrell Bynum Slot WR: Josh Downs, Isaiah Williams, Tyrie Cleveland TE: Jelani Woods, Ben Sinnott, Charlie Woerner, Kylen Granson, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray LT: Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt LG: Quenton Nelson, Josh Sills, Arlington Hambright C: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French RG: Will Fries, Tanner Bartolini, Lewis Kidd RT: Braden Smith, Brandon Parker, Brandon Coleman Defense DE: Samson Ebukam, Dorance Armstrong Jr., Titus Leo DT: DeForest Buckner, Byron Murphy II, Adetomiwa Adebawore DT: Grover Stewart, Tim Settle, Eric Johnson DE: Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Jasheen Davis, Isaiah Land MLB: Zaire Franklin, Michael Barrett, Segun Olubi, Liam Anderson OLB: E.J. Speed, Grant Stuard, Ronnie Harrison, Cameron McGrone, Austin Ajiake CB: Julius Brents, Cam Hart, Darrell Baker Jr. CB: Jaylon Jones, Dallis Flowers, Ameer Speed Nickel CB: Kenny Moore II, Chris Lammons FS: Alohi Gilman, Rodney Thomas, Daniel Scott, Michael Tutsie, Kendell Brooks SS: Julian Blackmon, Nick Cross, Trevor Denbow, Marcel Dabo Special teams K: Matt Gay P: Rigoberto Sanchez LS: Luke Rhodes
  3. It was inevitable, but it looks like the Matt Ryan experience is officially over. At least we have the 39 yard run to look back on with fondness.
  4. I had Gilmore getting traded to the Cowboys in the first mock I did, though I was a bit more ambitious with the Colts getting a third instead of a fifth.
  5. I doubt anyone had Matt Gay on their Colts bingo card.
  6. Info regarding compensatory picks for those interested: https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks Okereke is now the second highest paid LB in the free agent class thus far.
  7. They'll be fine at LB as long as they bring back E.J. Speed. Leonard, Franklin, Speed is not a bad group of LBs.
  8. Good for Okereke. He wasn't getting that money here with Leonard.
  9. What's funny is that Spotrac had him at $5M per year but PFF had him at $13M per year. $5.5M/year is a pretty good deal for Miami. It now seems very unlikely Okereke will get the salary that was reported. He's probably in that $5M to $7M per year range based on the market.
  10. Lamar would still have to sign the tag, which he probably wouldn't do until a few days before the regular season begins to avoid as much injury risk as possible.
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