Archer
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Posts posted by Archer
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19 hours ago, Archer said:
Tillery is my fondest hope for tonight. I like him more than Simmons, even without the injury...
Kinda disappointing that we didn’t select him last night. Moving down from 26 to 46 should have netted us more, too. (Though it should be a pretty good 2nd rounder next year.) Still, not surprising since Ballard basically said you could get a player at 70 that was as good as the guys that go in the late teens. If he believes that, then he’d be nuts not to trade.
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Winovich
Bunting
Saunders
Warring
This would be alright by me. Look for the Ballard trade-down at the end of Round 2 - still pick up his player, but add another 3rd or 4th.
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Chase Winovich, Sean Bunting, Deebo Samuel, Juan Thornhill, Khalen Samuel, Erik McCoy, Julian Lovrml, Justin Layne, David Long (Cb).
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You need a “I’ll go to bed angry” button. Only half kidding - that would upset me a little.
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Welcome to the Board. Stick around and participate as the draft unfold - always some great discussions during the draft (and especially between draft days).
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I’ll say our 47 pre-draft visits with Charles Omenihu...
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The Abram and Omenihu talk has the feel of smokescreen to me, though I’m sure we like those prospects at some level...
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Tillery is my fondest hope for tonight. I like him more than Simmons, even without the injury...
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Every year I put a lot of thought into what I would do if I was GM, and most years I get some of it right. I always want to document my final mock, in case I do the impossible and get a huge chunk right. The beauty of creating a thread today is that no one will read it because there’s too much other stuff to pay attention to on Day 1 of the draft. However, if I get a lot right I can resurrect the thread and say, “See, I knew it all ahead of time!” But, more likely, I can allow the thread to fade into obscurity, taking the fact that I did terribly with it. If anyone else wants to document their thoughts on this thread, feel free…however, as I said, no one will read this. Here goes:
1) Jeffery Simons, DT, Miss. St. Would love Tillery, but I don’t expect him to make it through the gauntlet of Tenn., Sea., and Phi. Dark horse could be Ferrell, if he makes it through.
2) Chase Winovich, DE, Michigan. Ballard will love his winning locker room personality, non-stop motor, and high-2nd round athleticism. I’d love to have a young pass-rusher opposite Turay going into the future (I consider Lewis mostly an undertackle). Consolation prizes: Sean Bunting (who I think will be gone before our next pick) or Jonathan Abram.
2) Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame. CB depth is the next need for me, because I love our top 3 CBs, but I’m not a big fan of the depth after that. Fortunately, this should be a good place to draft one, as I also like Bunting, Layne, Oruwariye, and David Long (very under-rated IMO).
3) Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego St. He’s flying up boards, so I don’t know if he’s available here. I was late to warming to TE as a need, but I’m there now. If Warring’s gone, I’m waiting a round and targeting Drew Sample, and going with a WR, S, or OL in the 3rd, probably.
4) Will Harris, S, Boston College. I’m not sold on S as a major need, as I’m high on Farley and (especially) Odum as back-ups. However, I would like another talented guy as a possible heir apparent at SS. Love the depth of this draft at S, and there’s other guys I’d target later if Harris were gone.
4) Trey Pipkens, OT, Sioux Falls. My favorite of the mid-round OTs. He’s got great feet and showcased really good mobility at the Combine. Needs to build strength badly, but there’s a big jump from a small school Strength and Conditioning program to the pros, and these guys are pretty successful building strength.
5) Ulysees Gilbert, LB, Akron. Totally our type of gap-shooting tackle machine who can move in space. Should develop into a good coverage guy. No great need at LB, but I’d like to start laddering them, since we should have four second-year guys make the team this year.
6) Tanner Farmer, OG/C, Nebraska. Granted he was the AD at Nebraska at the time, but Dave Rimington himself said that Farmer has the chops to be a long-time starter in the NFL at center. He’s extremely strong (39 bench reps with an injured pec), and his Pro Day also proved his mobility (5.00 forty at 315 lbs). He’s also the aggressive type that we favor who likes to bury/embarrass opponents.
7) Darrin Hall, RB, Pittsburgh. I feel like I’m missing something on this guy. He led all RBs in this draft in yards after contact, even though he’s only 217 lbs. (I wonder if he lost weight early in the pre-draft process.) And his Pro Day was pretty insane: 4.42 forty, 27 bench reps, 6.72 3-cone. Plus, he was a star in the East West Shrine game. We need a power runner to round out our corps, and he could be the new Robert Turbin in the short yardage situations. Would consider swapping the Farmer/Hall picks, as Hall seems to be more on people’s radars than Farmer.
Notice that I drafted no WRs. I do think WRs will be in consideration throughout the draft (starting with Deebo in the 2nd), but I just had other priorities. I think we have some good young guys from last year (Cain/Fountain), our offensive system doesn’t require top WRs, and Ballard doesn’t have a history of drafting WRs highly (including KC days). It’s an over-rated need (along with Safety), IMO.
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Very hasty dismissal of some real possibilities...
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20 hours ago, Legend of Luck said:
Can I ask though, why you feel a slot receiver is our missing link, when we have TY, Funchess, and Ebron already fighting for reps there?
I was actually referring to the traditional slot-type player - small, very quick, precise routes, good after the catch (rather than just players capable of playing in the slot). It’s a type we don’t really have much of on ther team (other than TY and Naheim, who have other roles).
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To me, the only missing element is a slot receiver. I like Deebo the most, but Marquise Brown, Andy Isabella, Terry McLaurin, Stanley Morgan, Penny Hart, and Terry Godwin would all fit well at various points in the draft. My mock has no WR right now, though...
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Round 1 - #26
A: Jerry Tillery
B: Jeffrey Simmons
C: Jonathan Abram
Round 2a - #34
A: Chase Winovich
B: Sean Bunting
C: Juan Thornhill
Round 2b - #59
A: Julian Love
B: Deebo Samuel
C: David Long (CB, Michigan)
Round 3 - #89
A: Kahale Warring
B:Terry McLaurin
C: Khalen Saunders
Round 4a - #129
A: Will Harris
B: Drew Sample
Round 4b - #135
A: Trey Pipkens
B: Foster Moreau
Round 5 - #164
A: Stanley Morgan
B: Trystan Hill
Round 6 - #199
A: Ulysees Gilbert
B: Saquan Hampton
Round 7 - #240
A: Sua Opeta
B: Drew Lewis
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Y’know , Collie’s little bro, Dylan, is draftable this year...
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I only agree with the one about Dexter Lawrence. I don’t see S or WR as big needs. We may be able to upgrade in the draft, but we’re fairly deep at both positions...
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I’m all in on the DTs in the 1st, in this order: Tillery, Simmons, and Wilkins. One of those three should be there. In the 2nd, I think we could go a lot of ways. I don’t really buy Safety or WR as a top need, but there are perfect fits there that would make me happy - Abram, Thornhill, Deebo, et al. But I keep coming around to Chase Winovich at 34. I keep hearing about the depth of this DL class, but I don’t like any pass-rushers after Winovich (until the late-round developmental guys, that is).
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Here’s my thoughts immediately following the first phases of Free Agency:
1) Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame. Tillery has the perfect skill set for our NT position, penetrating but holding up surprisingly well against the run. Had the top SPARQ score of any interior DL at the Combine. Tillery can be a real disruptor, and “off-field concerns” are really just a quirky personality IMO. Should fit well in the locker room.
2) Chase Winovich, DE, Michigan. Word on the street is that he won’t be available too long into the 2nd, with an outside shot of sneaking into the 1st. Winovich had some really good quickness figures at the Combine, and he ran a 4.59 forty. He also has a non-stop motor and top tier intangibles/character/leadership qualities. If he lasts to this pick, he’s the last DE I’m excited about in this draft.
2) David Long, CB, Michigan. This could be a sweet spot for CBs. Ya-Sin, Love, Oruwariye, Mullen would all be good fits and could go here – I would consider all of them. But, for this one, I’m going with a guy whose playing style and athleticism will appeal to Ballard. He’s uber aggressive and physical, despite his 5’11, 196 frame. His 4.45 forty at the Combine was good, but his 3.97 short shuttle and 6.45 3-cone were some of the best times this century. He was already an analytics darling, allowing the least coverage yards per coverage snap in the Big-10. He’s like a bigger, faster, and quicker Kenny Moore.
3) Will Harris, S, Boston College. Geathers is injured too often, and it’d be nice to have a successor in place. Harris’ great combine, including a 4.41 forty, lands him right about here. He has good feel in coverage and doesn’t make mental errors.
4) Stanley Morgan Jr., WR, Nebraska. The recent Stampede Blue article saying WR is an under-rated need is insane – I think it’s a hugely over-rated need. Half the mocks out there give us a 1st Round WR, even though Funchess was signed, Cain will be ready and looked like a starter last year, Fountain is an insane athlete that we spent last year developing, and Chester Rogers became quite dependable by the end of the year (watch the Giants game). I contemplated not drafting a WR, but I decided we’re not in danger of having “too much”. Morgan had really good shuttle and cone figures at the Combine, and ran a 4.53 at 6’, 202. Runs some of the best routes of anyone in this draft, which should make him a great slot option, as well as a possible outside guy.
4) Trey Pipkins, OT, Sioux Falls. 6’6”, 309. He has quick feet and was great in pass protection at the East West Shrine. In a relatively poor OT class, he’s a guy who could develop into a starter after a year or so. Only put up 16 bench at the Combine, indicating that (like most college OTs), he needs to add a lot of strength for the NFL. But he was very quick, mobile, and athletic.
5) Ulysees Gilbert, LB, Akron. Who?! Gilbert is an East West Shrine riser who proved his athleticism at his Pro Day. 6’, 224, 4.46 forty, 6.94 3-cone, 39.5 vertical. Was a noticeable gap-shooter who made plays in the backfield at the EWS. He can play in space/coverage too. A perfect Will understudy in our system. Not gonna worry that others call him a 7th round possibility – I like him better for us than the bigger names.
6) Tanner Farmer, OL, Nebraska. Another late-round swing for the fences. Was gunning for 49 bench reps at his Pro Day, but injured his pec and didn’t start lifting again until a week before his workout. “Only” put up 39 reps. Tonny Pauline called him a “dominant mauler who destroys opponents run blocking or in pass protection” two summers ago, but he fell off the radar. He’s intense, and he also ran a 5.00 forty and jumped a 32.5” vertical and 9’ 10” Broad at his Pro Day. Another physically imposing interior lineman in keeping with the current culture on the Colts.
7) Darrin Hall, RB, Pittsburgh. We’re developing a well-rounded RB corps, only lacking a power runner. Hall was just that at the EWS, plus he ripped off a 39-yard run. Had a disastrous Senior Bowl after joining the squad on Thursday of practice week. Ran a 4.42 at 6’,217, hit a 6.72 3-cone, and put up 27 bench reps at his Pro Day. Can’t believe no one’s talking about him.
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Throw George Odom into the conversation, unless you feel he broke out last year...very impressive athlete who played a rover-like LB position in college. Just scratching the surface.
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10 minutes ago, stitches said:
Do you have a favorite CB in the first several rounds? How do you feel about Murphy vs Baker vs Greedy?
I’m becoming a fan of Justin Layne of Michigan St. Pretty quick for a big corner. If you’re looking for a slot guy, you could do a lot worse than Jimmy Moreland of JMU. 29.5” arms, though, so you don’t want him on the outside...
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How many we keep? idk. But I guess we come out of preseason thusly:
1) Hilton
2) Funchess
3) Draft slot man (Samuel?)
4) Rogers
5) Fountain
6) Cain
7) Pascal
To me, Rogers showed some reliability in the second half of the season. Wouldn’t have pulled out that NYG game without him. I think Fountain is a very hard worker and expect him to be farther along than Cain at this point (not that it’s Cain’s fault). I can only imagine that Ballard is going to covet YAC slot men in the draft, since Fountain, Cain, and Pascal are all outside kind of guys...
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Yeah, our FAs have worked out well during the Ballard years - Sheard, Hunt, Autry, Ebron - so, I’m not going to worry about his approach. OL FAs didn’t pan out last year, but they were low risk, and the position eventually worked itself out really well...
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Don’t ever remember us agreeing to terms with someone so soon after the beginning of the tampering period...
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I fell in love with Fountain during the pre-draft process last year. I think he might have a leg up on a Cain returning from major surgery...for this year, at least.
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Here’s my thoughts immediately following the combine:
FA
1) Tyrell Williams, WR, Chargers. Here’s our second “Dog”.
2) Steven Nelson, CB, Chiefs. Obviously working the Ballard connection. Going veteran at CB with Nelson and Desir.
3) Rodney Gunter, DT, Cardinals. Played a lot of 5-technique at Arizona, where he picked up 4.5 sacks last year. He can take some of the NT reps we’re losing with Hunt and Woods leaving.
Inside FAs
· All restricted FAs come back (Ward, etc.).
· Mark Glowinski. Already done.
· Pierre Desir. Played well, and we get a veteran, steady CB corps.
· Adam Vinitieri. Done.
· Clayton Geathers. We need his veteran leadership in the secondary. No other leaders back there.
Draft
1) Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame. I want to get cute with this pick, as I think there are really good consolation prizes at DT, like Khalen Saunders as early as the #59 pick. However, Tillery is the perfect skill set for that NT position, and we have to replace the reps Hunt and Woods gave us last season. Tillery can be a real disruptor, and he seems to have the same kind of quirky, weird personality that former Irish teammate Matthias Farley has. Should fit well in the locker room – I don’t buy the off-field concerns.
2) Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina. Senior Bowl riser. This is the perfect slot guy for the Colts’ offense. Great route-runner, good hands, and excels at YAC. Built like a running back. It’d be a shame if we couldn’t find a way to work him into our draft – possibly the only guy I think that about at this point in time. Hopefully our 3rd “Dog”.
2) Chase Winovich, DE, Michigan. I’ve had us going DE in the first for a while, but the combine convinced me that no one will be there for us at #25. Bosa, Sweat, Ferrell, Burns, Gary – they’ll all be gone. I loved Omenihu, but he had a disastrous combine that convinced me that he lacks the athleticism I thought he had. Polite is probably off my board, with growing off-field concerns. I really don’t like many developmental DEs later in the draft. Winovich had some really good quickness figures at the Combine, and he ran a 4.59 forty. He also is supposed to have some top-tier leadership qualities. If he lasts to this pick, he’s the last DE I’m excited about in this draft.
3) Will Harris, S, Boston College. Geathers is injured too often, and it’d be nice to have a successor in place. Harris’ great combine, including a 4.41 forty, lands him right about here. He has good feel in coverage and doesn’t make mental errors.
4) Trey Pipkins, OT, Sioux Falls. 6’6”, 309. He has quick feet and was great in pass protection at the East West Shrine. In a relatively poor OT class, he’s a guy who could develop into a starter after a year or so. Only put up 16 bench at the Combine, indicating that (like most college OTs), he needs to add a lot of strength for the NFL. With Castonzo, Clark, and Haeg FAs after 2019, taking a shot at a LT could provide a cheap successor at LT…
4) Jimmy Moreland, CB, James Madison. With the top four CBs being Moore, Wilson, Desir, and Nelson (in some order), I like the idea of developing someone behind them with ST ability. Moreland was great at both the EWS and Senior Bowl, and showed some great return ability at the former. With 29.5” arms, he’s a slot guy only on D, but I’m alright with that because the four ahead of them can all play outside.
5) Joshua Miles, OL, Morgan St. 6’5”, 314. Played LT in college. Played inside at the East West Shrine, and was called by some as the best OL there. I’m thinking of him as a back-up OG, though he has really long arms (making a Haeg-like swing tackle a possibility). We’ve kept the OL together, now I’m trying to ensure the depth continues to improve. With a new OL coach who is known as a teacher, I like giving him two underdeveloped, undercoached, small-school lumps of clay with positive athletic traits as his first projects.
6) Bobby Okereke, LB, Stanford. We have a very young LB corps, but I’d like to start laddering their contracts. We used to do that with our Tampa-2 LBs. Every year we’d lose a starter to FA, and someone we drafted mid- to late-rounds two years earlier would just step up. Our LBs were always cheap that way. Oh-kuh-REEK-ee is the typical fast, small, good-in-coverage LB we will be looking for going forward.
7) Darrin Hall, RB, Pittsburgh. We’re developing a well-rounded RB corps, only lacking a power runner. Hall was just that at the EWS, plus he ripped off a 39-yard run. He actually dropped weight to 217 at the EWS, but we can muscle him back up.
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2nd Rnd Wish List
in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk
Posted
Hey After a while to reflect, I’m gonna toss out my positional expectations and do more of a modified BPA method:
34) Irv Smith, TE, Alabama. Doyle gets replaced a year early, though it may just add to Ebron’s Slot opportunities...
46) Chase Winovich, DE, Michigan.
59) Sean Bunting, CB, C. Michigan. CBs have fallen down the Board, making this happy hunting grounds for CBs. (Love, Oruwariye, Long, etc.)
89) Trystan Hill, DT, Central Florida. Okay, so I didn’t totally throw out the positional drafting...