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Warhawk

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Posts posted by Warhawk

    Jerrell Freeman

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    He really filled up the stat sheet this year.  126 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 6 PDs, 2 INTs, 6 FFs.

     

    BTW, there are only 3 players in the NFL with at least 8 INTs+FFs (each has exactly 8): Richard Sherman, Robert Mathis, and Jerrell Freeman.

    Kyle Orton

    in NFL General

    Posted

    Orton is fine, it's just that as bad as Dallas' defense is, and as good as the Philadelphia is capable of playing on offense, the Cowboys' best hope is that the Eagles just beat themselves, as they have done on occasion.

    NE-Den AFCCG looming large

    in NFL General

    Posted

    But you are citing the past to argue against logic..

     

     

    Don't over think it...you don't WANT to play on the road in the post-season..

     

    All teams post-season  road records are worse than their post-season home records...all of them..without exception.

     

    So One home game to get to the AFC final is better than all other scenarios.

     

    It doesn't matter who the teams are....

     

    One home game to reach the final is what you hope for....

     

    I'm not arguing that I wouldn't rather have my team get a bye, I'm just pointing out that, factually, you were wrong when you said that a wild card team winning in the divisional round last year was an "exception" to the rule.  Besides, you were the one who brought up last year as being an "exception" to the rule, so I'm not sure why I'm not allowed to cite the past when you're making a fairly basic (and somewhat wrong) assumption about past events to support your point.  7 of the last 8 years a team without a bye won the Super Bowl, and in 5 of those 8 years at least 2 teams without a bye made it to the conference championship.  Just because it seems logical to you that 1 and 2 seeds winning should be the "rule" because they're good teams playing at home doesn't mean that's how it actually happens.  Last year's Ravens were in no way whatsoever a statistical outlier.

     

    Fact is that, particularly in recent times, bye teams have only enjoyed a slight advantage over their opponents in the divisional round (18-14, which is pretty much dead-on what the NFL's home field winning percentage is in general, suggesting that bye teams are no better in quality than wild card teams, or else they would outperform the league-wide rate at which home teams win).  But, obviously, that doesn't mean you don't want a bye, because even if you assumed the winning percentage was 50% for each team in each game, that means that each bye team has a 50% chance of making the conference championship, whereas each wild card team would have a 25% chance of making the conference championship.  So an individual bye team has a substantial advantage over any individual non-bye team, and thus a conference championship pitting the bye teams against each other is substantially more likely than any other particular matchup, BUT that doesn't mean that it's likely against the field.  In fact, taking that 18-14 recent record of bye teams against non-bye teams in the divisional round, there is a roughly 31.6% chance the AFC Championship is Broncos vs. Patriots.

    If Miami wins in the 1 pm ET slot, we should be rooting for the Bengals simultaneously in the 1 pm slot

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    Are you sure? Both Dolphins and Ravens are 8-7, and if they both win, they are 9-7. Head-to-head is first tie-breaker, and Ravens beat Dolphins earlier 26-23. Something does not jive.

     

    Because if the Chargers win they're 9-7 too.

     

    Look at it this way:

     

    Miami wins at 1:00, the 6 seed is the Dolphins or Ravens.

    Miami loses at 1:00, the 6 seed is the Ravens, Chargers, or Steelers

    Colts 2014 opponents(Home/Away) released

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    Assuming we are as Healthy next year as this, ;) 

    we will be Better next season 

     A manning like weak AFC South 6-0

     

     Would expect 5-5 a minimum in the rest of the games. We are going to be GOOD!

     I`ll say 7-3 for 13 wins.

     

    Well, it's pretty tough to go 6-0 in your division.  Only 2 teams are 5-0 right now against division opponents (Colts and Cowboys, and the latter's prospects this weekend look rather grim).  Even if you're a good team in a weak division, you sorta have to build in a divisional loss somewhere in your projections.  So say 5-1 for 12-4 overall.

     

    Not that 6-0 isn't possible, but really only about 2 teams per year manage to do it.

    NE-Den AFCCG looming large

    in NFL General

    Posted

    If Denver and NE get the byes.....

     

    .....odds are its them....folks look at the exception (last season) rather than  the rule..

     

    If you need one home win to get to the conference title game..odds are heavy that you will

     

    Well, actually, last year, teams with byes were 3-1, it just so happens that the "1" ended up winning the Super Bowl.  Same thing in 2011.  In 2010, teams with byes were 2-2, and a team that played in the wild card round won the Super Bowl.  In 2009 they were 3-1 and a bye team won it, in 2008 they were 1-3 but the lone bye team won it, in 2007 they were 2-2 and a WC round team won it, in 2006 they were 2-2 and a WC round team won it, and in 2005 they were 2-2 and a WC round team won it.

     

    Not sure how you mean that a single WC team winning in the divisional round last year is an exception to the "rule" that teams with byes generally make it to the conference title game, when in the last 8 years, the combined record of teams with byes in the divisional round is 18-14, and 7 of the 8 Super Bowls were won by teams who didn't get a bye (2008 Steelers were the only exception, and in that year they were the ONLY bye team that didn't go one-and-done).

    Andrew Luck

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    I don't like the comparison, but I'd like to point out that Andrew Luck has fewer interceptions through 31 games than Peyton Manning had in his first 16. I'm the biggest Manning fan there is, but people did a great deal of complaining about Luck's interceptions last year. He's protected the ball very well for a young QB who's been asked to carry his offense.

     

    More to the point, Andrew Luck has the 6th lowest interception rate in NFL history.

     

    Yeah, small sample size, different era, and Griffin and Kaep would be ahead of him if they had enough attempts to qualify (though Wilson wouldn't), but still, pretty good.

    If Colts end up with #3 Seed

    in Colts Football

    Posted

    The problem with Denver, not to state the obvious, (I will anywayLOL) you have to put up enough points to out score Peyton.  We did it once.  May be tough to do it a second time.  I do think that Mathis has Peyton's number though :)

     

    Yeah, but, while the problem with playing Denver is that you have to put up enough points to outscore Peyton, the problem with being Denver is that you need Peyton to put up enough points to outscore any team with a pulse on offense.  They're a team that's 2-3 when they don't score at least 34 points.  The other AFC teams (Colts, Bengals, Pats), if they score 21 points or more, they usually win (and indeed are combined at least .900 when doing so).  The dropoff is when they only score in the teens.  The Broncos, on the other hand, have such a questionable defense that if they only score 28 or 31, winning becomes an iffy proposition.  There's so little margin for error for that offense.  Yeah, they've been great most of the season, but they've needed to be great.  The problem is, as we've seen this season, there are a number of other teams (Colts, Pats, and Chargers, and I daresay the Bengals could do it as well, along with various NFC teams) who can straight-up beat Denver by scores like 34-31.

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