shasta519

January 17

1 hour ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

Not necessarily. I'm not sure you are one that attacks people in a negative manner. I mean- I was literally told last night that I likely jerk off in a Chris Ballard sock puppet... LOL.

Wait...that's what you thought I meant?!? LOL.

To be fair, you did fire first. I was merely responding in kind.

But I actually rarely attack anybody on this site.

January 17

7 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

“Shane we need to inform you that we’ve fired Chris Ballard.” -Jim Irsay

“what? Why?” - Shane

“it’s time to move on.” -irsay

”Mr. Irsay, Chris hired me, you let him handle that entire process remember?”

“yeah it doesn’t matter now. We’ll be naming a gm soon.” - Irsay

“I don’t know what to say. Chris and I were aligned on what the goals were going forward. We were close to exceeding every expectation with minshew, which wasn’t the plan as you know.” -Shane

“listen, @shasta519, @OLD FAN MAN , turtle man @PRnum1, and the gang on the colts forum wanted him gone… and he’s gone so it’s time to move on Shane…” - Irsay

“The colts forum, are you kidding me?”

“no Shane… they know football. Let me tell you. turtleman not only didn’t want us to NOT pick cj stroud or Anthony, he didn’t want us to pick anyone at all last draft. I think he’s brilliant. I’m actually thinking about naming him assistant co-owner.”

You play out this dialogue with sock puppets? You probably even use your Ballard sock puppet for other purposes too, but I am not one to judge.

Ballard and Reich were aligned too…as are every GM and HC. Because the goal (beyond printing money for owners) is to win playoff games and get to a SB. Ballard has not proven capable of doing that as a GM. Every bit of criticism about his lack of success is fair.

But he’s held to some weird double standard…where a 4-12-1 record doesn’t get him fired…and a 9-8 record gets him celebrated.

It came down to having to just win 2/3 games to make the playoffs, and a Ballard team couldn’t get it done…again. Same as 2021. Different QB, different HC…same results.

I have no clue what Ballard has done to earn such devotion from you and others, who seem compelled to white knight for him.

January 17

1 hour ago, Superman said:

Seems like Dorsey was a jerk, which is what got him fired. I don't think that would be a factor with Ballard and the Colts. And I think it's interesting that Dorsey got fired right after Ballard left, like maybe Ballard was the counterweight to Dorsey, and once Ballard was gone they knew that Dorsey's management style would cause problems. That's just me theorizing...

But Dorsey was an exceptional roster builder, there's no question about that. Which is why it was so shocking when he got fired.

I don’t really know the circumstances of his firing…it was just an example of ousting a successful GM with an internal transition plan.

But it did seem like Ballard liked him.

January 17

3 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

I have had so many back and forths about Ballard with his supporters that im just not really into it anymore. There is no winning haha.

I will just say reading all the comments in the various topics I find it quite comical how his supporters seem to latch on to every little thing he has done right and prop those things up on a pedestal. While completely ignoring the results, the things he has done wrong, and just how long it has been since this team has had genuine success.

Like 7 years in, no division titles, minimal playoff success, below .500 record and perpetually mediocre means nothing.

I have often seen them pointing to it being a "process" that takes "time". While teams like the Rams, Lions, Texans, Jags, Bengals have all made huge turnarounds in a much shorter period of time. Rebuilds, re-tools, becoming a playoff contender whatever you want to call it doesn't take 8 years in the modern NFL folks.

I think he’s something like 40-42-1 since Luck retired. One playoff appearance. No wins.

IND is among 13 teams who haven’t won a playoff game in that time. Colts are always “trending in the right direction.” That’s what mediocre teams do…but never get to the next level.

Steichen is awesome…so why continue to let Ballard limit the ceiling of this team.

January 17

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

What prompted my response was your statement that "defense first teams simply win more regular season games."

And now you're talking about playoff results.

Doesn't the success of that team that was weighted toward the offense, with a conservative defense, somewhat undermine your position?

Pretty sure we just saw the greatest overall QB play in a playoff weekend….ever. Defense seemed optional at times haha

January 17

3 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

Why? Those are Ballard's guys... They were involved in the decision-making and scouting process.

Firing Ballard and hiring from within is saying "We like what you've done, especially the personnel you have brought in the front office and coaching staff which we are retaining, as well as a good deal of the roster you have drafted/assembled, as well as the overall philosophy you have implemented here... But it's just not working out"

That doesn't make much sense to me.

Again, I have yet to hear a reasonable take on what happens after he's fired. A new outside GM comes in and works wonders with Shane Steichen, who came here to work with Chris Ballard? I'm not sure. Do they feel they need to blow up a great deal of the roster? That's not moving in the right direction after nearly winning the division with the starting qb on the sideline.

It’s not unprecedented. KC fired John Dorsey and promoted Brett Veach to GM.

But it wouldn’t be Dodds…it would have to be Brown since they want to build around AR…and AR is his guy. Dodds was the one who was hesitant.

January 15

11 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Stroud and AR are different QB. They are going to win in different ways. No one should be comparing them. I will say yes there is a chance Texans will be ahead of colts in building because they got their rookie QB the entire year. We will see if that ends up true. I don’t think Richardson will struggle but it might take some games for him to reach his ceiling.

The fact Richardson got injured saying stroud was automatically going to be ahead of Richardson can’t be proven.

Of course they are going to be compared. They were taken two spots apart in the same draft to two teams in the same division. The only people who think Stroud hasn't proven to be better thus far are Colts fans. But it defies logic and what we have seen.

If the players were reversed, and the Colts were about to play next weekend with Stroud, you wouldn't be saying what you said.

But nothing is written in stone. AR will have time to prove he is better...if he is.

January 15

15 minutes ago, KB said:

I mention kicks from the statement of why didn't they score all the time. Even the greatest ever didn't score all the time. Unless there is a turnover or a TD, drives end with kicks usually. If your consistently scoring, you don't need a punter or kicker, except to kick off.

True, but Gay missed one FG when AR was playing. He missed 7 with Minshew. I think they both have could use that as a reason. Hopefully, Gay is much better next year.

January 15

15 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

We were up 14-0 when Richardson left with a concussion. The two drives we scored on were very easy.

They were up 14-7 when AR left with the game.

One of those two TDs was a short field (HOU's 15 yard line) after a sack fumble. Then there were two 3-and-outs.

January 15

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

There's a lot more variance with Richardson than with Minshew, and that's good and bad. But what it really boils down to is that he's a rookie with so little experience, and we only scratched the surface with him. You're right, there's a lot of premature extrapolating and assuming based on the little bit of him that we saw, but what's very obvious is that he can do things that Minshew could never dream of doing.

I'm not one who's saying the offense definitely would have been better with Richardson, but I do think the potential was there. Whereas with Minshew, we know what he can and can't do, and we probably just saw the ceiling of what the offense can do with him.

Agree. The potential and ceiling were there for this year...and will be next year as well. So we will get to find out. I just think fans have a tendency to get hung up on traits (or lack thereof) or certain highlights and make presumptions.

It's obviously not a totally similar comp, but does remind me a bit of the Rivers vs. Wentz conversations from a couple years ago. Wentz had clear superior athletic traits, but a ton of variance, where as Rivers was limited, but much more experienced and knew how to run an offense within those limitations.

Minshew isn't Rivers on any level, but it's also fair to say that AR hasn't shown the level that Wentz did at one time. So I just think Minshew deserves more credit for handling that schedule and the offense as he did. And I don't think we can assume AR would have done the same with how good DCs can be.

January 15

2 minutes ago, KB said:

He had a much easier time scoring against Houston than Minshew did. Our number of explosive plays went down after Minshew became the starter. Do you think Minshew could of brought us back in the game against the Rams? I highly doubt it.

With this logic it never made sense for the Colts and Patriots to have a kicker or a punter. The two greatest QBs of all time and both of them needed Adam V to score points when they pushed it down the field.

What does it matter if fans get ahead of themselves thinking someone is an answer at QB or any position. If someone wants to say they believe in Richardson then good for them. It hold zero weight when it actually comes to what happens with the team. Right, wrong, apathetic, or overly caring it makes no difference.

Unless we're gonna go out and try and get another QB to compete for a starting apot, then it's fine for people to believe in AR, and think he is good at passing the ball. He actually is.

No, AR did not have an "easier time" scoring in the HOU game. Minshew had a higher EPA/play in that game. After two TDs (one on a short field) and then two 3-and-outs, Minshew took over and went TD (76 yds), TD (75 yds), FG (56 yds).

Maybe they aren't down 23-0 against the LAR if Minshew was playing. Doesn't matter anyway because they lost that game.

Not sure why were are talking about kick, but I only mentioned it because it's not Minshew's fault that his K missed 7 FGs.

I have no issue with people believing in AR going forward or that he will be great. I just disagree with these presumptive statements that the Colts would have been so much better THIS year with AR vs. Minshew. We don't know that at all. We will get to find out, but we don't know right now. And really, I think Minshew has been torn down a bit to lift up AR, despite AR only playing 15% of the snaps this year.

January 15

4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Colts could have had the first pick if they wanted. Bur giving up that much to move up a few spots was too much. Plus it seems they wanted Richardson and would of taken him at one too.

We have a good QB. We should not be looking at hindsight. Colts are going to be just fine. I hate he got injured and this even had to be a topic for discussion.

If they would have taken AR at #1, then they would have moved up to #3 to make sure ARI didn't trade him to somebody else during the draft. I think they were content with AR and Levis (depending on what happened).

Because that's how Ballard rolls. He wasn't going to trade up for a QB.

January 15

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Colts have no issue getting to the red zone with AR.

Ok. Then how come they didn't score so many more points with AR than Minshew? Serious question.

If they have no issue getting to the RZ with AR and then they can convert at a ridiculously high rate, it stands to reason that they would be scoring a lot more points per drive. Hell, they probably should have been scoring every drive. But that didn't happen in the very small sample size we have. And I think we are getting ahead of ourselves assuming these things.

January 15

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

This is also why I am not ruling out a good pass rusher at No.15 if we get our hands on one that is rated Top 10 that drops slightly.

Verse looks legit. Drafting an FSU ER gives me bad flashbacks, but at least this one won't run a 4.8 40.

January 15

Just now, harrisoncolts88 said:

Yep I agree, we may be fans, but the eye test tells a lot. It's just going to be hard to get what I would think is needed. Another WR, a DE, and a FS for this team that is desperately needed. Not unless we can sign Jaguars DE Josh Allen, trade this years first and next years first for Malik Nabers (or maybe this years first and next years second or third to move up for Odunze). And the whatever can be done to package (either next years first/second and this years second) for Cooper DeJean...

I think the only way to do it would be to let some of the free agents walk, make a couple splashing signings...and just hope you can replace your outgoing FAs with draft picks on the cheap

January 15

18 minutes ago, lester said:

I don't listen to sports talk radio. I just don't. So, how did mister JMV expect us to have been able to acquire the rights to CJ Stroud?

There's some hindsight with Stroud now. But there also was a path.

The Colts held the #4 pick in the draft. CHI had the #1 pick and was open for business. Moving from #4 to #1 is not that crazy of a leap.

And IF the Colts wanted Stroud, they could have become a pretty attractive trade partner for CHI, as they wouldn't have had to move all the way to #9 (however, it has worked out in their favor).

But it would still would have been a huge deal...unlike anything we have seen Ballard do.

The move he should have made was trading up and drafting Jordan Love back in 2020...right, @stitches? It's been a long time, but vindication is finally ours!

January 15

39 minutes ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

I'm playing devils advocate as you can see and amazed at the numbers you are getting (I'm too lazy to go gather all that). But even those numbers don't tell me time of possession or other things I could probably nitpick at. Did those runs come at the end of the game, etc? End of the day, my eye test is telling me what you are saying though, I would love to have a dominate edge rusher and why I said in another thread (shoot it might even be in this one haha), that if Josh Allen (Jaguards DE) became available, then I would swing to sign him.

I know. I just think it's really hard to poke holes in this narrative, especially as we saw it play it out.

I mean...we could delve into time to throw, aDOT, blitz rate (though we know Gus doesn't do that), but I just think this is a case where the stats, eye test, circumstances...all align.

January 15

7 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

They barely threw it 20 yards down field. Thst wouldn’t have happened with AR. Just to watch highlights of AR and it’s so obvious how much better the offense was. Colds couldn’t score in the red zone with Minshew. With the short time with AR they were 75%.

They would have had more chances for explosive plays, but I don't buy the hypothetical that they are definitely a much better offense with AR this year. Have to get to the RZ for RZ % to matter first of all.

And even with that RZ %, they hardly scored more points with AR on the field per drive. The difference was like .1 points/drive...and that's with Gay sucking and missing 7 FGs.

AR's EPA/play of .057 is certainly better, but not that much higher than Minshew (.022). Success rate is identical too.

Those differences are not enough to make it obvious that the offense would have been far better with AR than Minshew, especially as they began to actually play good defenses and there was more tape of AR.

For reference, AR played the #13, #14 (for 1.5 quarters), #20 and #28 (for 1.5 quarters) defenses.

Minshew also played the #13 and #14 teams...and played 7 games against defenses better than any AR faced (including the #1, #2, #5, #7, #8, #9).

I think it's presumptive to assume that AR would wouldn't have struggled against better defenses. Yes, he can throw downfield, but so could Wentz. And most of the big pass plays we saw were in one half of that LAR game when they were trying to make a comeback. The sample size is just really small.

Teams adjust to tape and find weaknesses, especially with rookie QBs. Minshew has his own weaknesses too, but he also has experience and familiarity. Ultimately, I don't think we see an appreciably better offense with AR than Minshew this season.

But it doesn't matter because AR didn't even last 4 games. That's another reason why I think Minshew should get more credit...availability. Some teams were on their 3rd and 4th QBs, but the was out there every Sunday. And yet, he's criticized from weirdos like Zack Hicks.

January 15

Just now, harrisoncolts88 said:

I'm not disagreeing with the group here and think the Colts need an Elite DE still as I think all their current DE's are high end complimentary pieces (which I'm glad they are on the Colts). But with the sack totals numbers being discussed above, don't we also need to include how many times the opponent ran in those games, reducing sack chances? How well our offense had the ball, meaning our defense got rest and whatnot. I can't argue with the numbers above as they are the facts, but sometimes the lack of pressures could be the result of other indirect things

Counting numbers like sacks and pressures can certainly be skewed by game script. But I don't think that is the case here.

7 games: 34.6 passes/game; 28.1 rushes/game

10 games: 33.4 passes/game; 28.3 passes/game

January 15

18 minutes ago, chad72 said:

We better have AR and some bullets/weapons loaded up for answers, that is all I am going to say. Our best defense will be a very good offense.

For those 10 games charted where you felt it was reflective of a typical SOS, if you look at the offense, we can paint a better middle of the road picture if not a Top 10 picture, with Minshew though we ended up close to Top 10 in ppg offensively if I am not mistaken. Steichen and the offense will be our best bets moving forward till Bradley's schemes are done, IMO.

Yep. Steichen was a great hire. Both he and Minshew navigated a ridiculously tough SOS on offense. I don't think Minshew gets enough credit, as I see lots of people on Colts Twitter disparaging him.

And I don't fully buy the offense would have been better with AR this year. First of all, they were pretty damn good as it is. Second, it was Minshew, not AR, who faced down those tough defenses. We just don't know what that might have looked like with AR.

Next year is a different story of course. And I would certainly take AR over Minshew. I just don't get why Minshew doesn't get more credit. It wasn't always pretty, but it could have been far worse (like we saw last year).

January 15

37 minutes ago, Superman said:

Thanks for doing this. That breakdown is eye opening. I didn't expect that big of a disparity.

In the seven games you separated out, we averaged 5 sacks/game. In the other ten games, 1.6 sacks/game. That's massive. I'm tempted to go through and break out the pressures/game also, but I think we can assume that there's a similar disparity at work.

Naturally, we see a similar disparity with the sack totals from the trio of ERs:

Kwity Paye (7 games): 6.5 sacks

Kwity Paye (10 games): 2 sacks

Ebukam (7 games): 7 sacks

Ebukam (10 games): 2 sacks

Dayo (7 games): 6 sacks (3 in one game)

Dayo (10 games): 2 sacks

That trio combined for 19.5 sacks came in 7 games, while accounting for only 6 sacks in the other 10 games. THREE players.

DeFo is the only one to "buck" that trend, as 5/8 sacks came outside of those games.

Again, just a hard time believing in this narratives about the pass rush and ERs.

January 15

42 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

We know the Colts faced a very easy schedule on defense. I believe I saw it was the #28 SOS, based on season-long EPA of those offenses.

But in reality, it's likely closer to #32 than #28 because of some favorable circumstances of certain games:

Played HOU in Week 2 with most of their starting OL out. HOU's OL got healthier, Stroud got better and their offense took off, which improved their season-long EPA.

Played BAL Week 3 in bad weather with key OL starters out. Clearly, that team got healthy and was far better as the season went on, with a much higher EPA.

Played CLE with Phillip Walker instead of the Joe Flacco, who vastly improved their offense and EPA over the back half.

Played PIT with Mitch Trubisky instead of Kenny Pickett/Mason Rudolph. PIT avg'd 13 ppg with Trubisky and were flat out terrible.

IND put up 14 sacks in 3 of those games (HOU, BAL and PIT). They added another 21 sacks against CAR (bad OL and bad rookie QB), NE (bad OL and bad QB), TB (bad OL) and TEN (bad OL and bad QB).

That accounts for 35 of their 51 sacks in only 7 games, all with either very favorable circumstances/bad opponents/bad OLs/bad QBs.

They allowed 13 ppg in those 7 games too.

In the other 10 games combined, they had 16 sacks.

They also allowed 32.4 ppg in those 10 games (which would have been #32 in the NFL by ~2 ppg).

Looking at that huge disparity (#1 defense in 7 games vs. #32 defense in 10 games), it's reasonable to suggest that they weren't really that effective as a pass rush unit overall (as the sack totals indicate) and they overachieved on sacks, mainly due to circumstances. And because they were given enough opportunity to do so, it skewed the entire season total.

It's also fair to suggest that the other 10 games are likely more indicative of what to expect with their low pressure rate.

Those 10 games are a larger sample size and probably a fairer indication of the play of the defense this year too. Maybe not the #32 defense, but certainly not a good one. And those games are more in line with what a normal SOS would look like for a team.

So I have a hard time trusting these overly positive narratives around certain players and the defense overall.

Edit: I fudged the PPG because I forgot to count TEN:

7 Games with 35 sacks: 17 ppg

10 Game with 16 sacks: 29.6 ppg

Still a massive disparity as one is a top 3 defense and one is a bottom 3 defense.

January 15

26 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I think this is precisely why our numbers are what they are and why we can't really use said numbers as a meassure of how good our pass rush is. You have to dive into it and look at each game.

ESPN has the Colts #5 for pass rush win rate, although they only have DeFo (#5 for DT pass rush win rate) and Ebukam (#16 for EDGE pass rush win rate) even ranked in the top 20 for IDL or ERs.

I suppose if we buy that stat, then we have to buy that the OL was bad bad in pass pro (#26 in pass block win rate). But I am sure PFF would you tell that the Colts OL is elite at pass blocking with how they grade them, so who knows with these advanced stats.

Still, even if the Colts were #5 in PRWR, it could still be largely due to those 7 games, where they had an extremely high win rate that turned into sacks.

I agree that the numbers are largely circumstantial. Not that the Colts are the only team that does this, but I think this year is a bit of an outlier in terms of the schedule and the overall QB play. Next year will likely be a very different story. If the Colts are giving up 30+ PPG to CLE (with a backup), NO, CIN (with a backup), ATL (with a backup)...then what happens when those teams become BUF, MIA, DET, GB, MIN.

January 15

40 minutes ago, Jackie Daytona said:

Yeah, Pit saying this just makes sure he's at least franchised...

Doubt he wants to be franchised at all. Think he's saying this so that Ballard backs up the truck for him or it could be a problem.

January 15

1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

Sacks are a product of pressure, pressure isn't a product of sacks. That's why the pressure rate matters so much because more pressure is more opportunities to impact the play (with sacks among other ways).

It's not two separate things. Sacks is a subcategory of pressure.

We know the Colts faced a very easy schedule on defense. I believe I saw it was the #28 SOS, based on season-long EPA of those offenses.

But in reality, it's likely closer to #32 than #28 because of some favorable circumstances of certain games:

Played HOU in Week 2 with most of their starting OL out. HOU's OL got healthier, Stroud got better and their offense took off, which improved their season-long EPA.
Played BAL Week 3 in bad weather with key OL starters out. Clearly, that team got healthy and was far better as the season went on, with a much higher EPA.
Played CLE with Phillip Walker instead of the Joe Flacco, who vastly improved their offense and EPA over the back half.
Played PIT with Mitch Trubisky instead of Kenny Pickett/Mason Rudolph. PIT avg'd 13 ppg with Trubisky and were flat out terrible.

IND put up 14 sacks in 3 of those games (HOU, BAL and PIT). They added another 21 sacks against CAR (bad OL and bad rookie QB), NE (bad OL and bad QB), TB (bad OL) and TEN (bad OL and bad QB).

That accounts for 35 of their 51 sacks in only 7 games, all with either very favorable circumstances/bad opponents/bad OLs/bad QBs.

They allowed 13 ppg in those 7 games too.

In the other 10 games combined, they had 16 sacks.

They also allowed 32.4 ppg in those 10 games (which would have been #32 in the NFL by ~2 ppg).

Looking at that huge disparity (#1 defense in 7 games vs. #32 defense in 10 games), it's reasonable to suggest that they weren't really that effective as a pass rush unit overall (as the sack totals indicate) and they overachieved on sacks, mainly due to circumstances. And because they were given enough opportunity to do so, it skewed the entire season total.

It's also fair to suggest that the other 10 games are likely more indicative of what to expect with their low pressure rate.

Those 10 games are a larger sample size and probably a fairer indication of the play of the defense this year too. Maybe not the #32 defense, but certainly not a good one. And those games are more in line with what a normal SOS would look like for a team.

So I have a hard time trusting these overly positive narratives around certain players and the defense overall.

Sign In

Profiles

Forums

Gallery

Events

Blogs

Posts posted by shasta519