shasta519

February 14

21 hours ago, Tsarquise said:

Dvoa says otherwise:

It was an easy path of QBs and team offenses…that’s why I listed QBs.

I am sure teams like BAL and CHI had their overall team DVOA heavily skewed due to their defense that year, so the strength of the overall team DVOA in that run doesn’t surprise me.

The Colts defense actually carried the Colts through most of that run. Manning did not have a good playoffs.

But that stat just reinforces what I said about Mahomes. We are beyond comparing him to Peyton.

February 13

1 hour ago, bluebombers87 said:

Prior to this Super Bowl I’d say it was easily Manning over Mahomes. After this past Sunday, I’d say we now can have a more nuanced discussion.

Mahomes has never had to battle any real adversity. This was the first year he didn’t have all pro WRs and it showed in the regular season. Post season, he was a slight return to form in the first two games but played pedestrian (as compared to his previous excursions). The defense really shone this year in the post season and had an outsized effect on their success.

Mahomes has a great coach in Andy Reid and up until this past season has had plenty of offensive help.

I think we need to let more play out to determine how great he is. He has a lot going for him with his situation in KC. Let’s revisit this when he has a new HC and the burdens of paying for legit players continues. The question should be is he a Terry Bradshaw or a Joe Montana?

When the Colts won the SB, Manning had to beat Trent Green, a 33 year-old Steve McNair and a Rex Grossman. Other than the AFFCG against Brady, it was a very easy path.

This year, with what was suppose to be the weakest KC team yet, Mahomes had to beat Tua, Allen, Lamar and Purdy. All top 7 QBs this year in EPA.

Yes, the defense helped him, but I just don't know what else he can do. By metrics and possibly record, he's on pace to be the best regular season and playoff QB that ever played.

I love Peyton, but the only real argument left for Mahomes is will he surpass Brady as the greatest QB.

February 13

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

You don't get sane users on Reddit, far too hit and miss. Go to the proper ArrowHeadPride forums or the SB Nation forums of a team, you generally find more moderation and more civil arguments like here.

Reddit functions as some type of hybrid social media app/discussion forum. A large issue with sports social media in general these days is how disrespectful people are from the comforts of their own anonymity.

It's a bit jarring at first when you encounter this. And it really makes for a difficult debate. Plus, there tends to be a lot of groupthink that spawns out of sports discussion on these apps.

I think it might be a generational thing. Some sports social media sites are overrun with active Gen Z members. The Colts sub reddit and Twitter are probably good examples. I think I saw a chart recently of fanbases with growth of younger fans...and Colts were top 5. So if that is true, those younger fans have to go somewhere to actively talk about the Colts.

Not to sound like the "get off my lawn" type...I am not even that far from the age group. But I get the sense that Gen Z has played a big role in this.

February 13

10 hours ago, JediXMan said:

Colts fans has been going crazy with this take on social media. How about progressing and playing healthy most of the season respectfully.

Colts Twitter is like this. It's delusional and embarrassing. It really just serves as an extension of Colts PR.

But the irony is that a lot of it is just trolling other fanbases...since we haven't had much to celebrate for the past several years.

February 12

8 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

There’s zero chance they didn’t know it was a serious possibility. I would argue that they knew when his ankle issue turned up after the 2018 season. The comments by Irsay of it being between the ears tells me he likely expressed his frustrations and contemplations of retirement. Who knows- it may have been a recurring discussion throughout his last several years. The article that states Ballard tried to appeal to his “competitive fire” or something along those lines, tells me this was ongoing discussions, as well as they certainly knew before the preseason game where it was leaked.

I forgot about those Irsay comments. Looks like they were all the way back in 2017. Seems pretty clear that there had been some discussion of it at some point, or at least of his mental state. Luck even chronicled his journey in that one interview, so it all sort of tracks.

For me, I actually thought there was a decent chance might be done once he missed all of 2017. I had sort of accepted that reality (and maybe other fans had as well). But then he comes back and starts playing an AP QB in 2018. It a roller coaster of two years for a fan. Can only imagine what it was like inside the org.

February 12

1 minute ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

this was what I thought too. But when I watched the video, he clearly is implying that he had those discussions with Luck, and that he was open to a comeback. But the boos squashed that.

I don’t buy it.

I don't buy it either. And I sort of feel like TY is taking an unnecessary shot at the fanbase. There weren't even many fans there and they certainly didn't represent the Colts fanbase at large.

The situation was unprecedented and I think the booing has been way overblown. People were clearly booing the idea that Luck would no longer be their QB, not the man himself. If you look at it from that perspective, that shows how much the fans loved him.

I mean...I still remember exactly where I was when that news broke. I was stunned and devastated. It was one of those types of moments. It was like a long-term relationship ending. So I can see why there was a visceral reaction.

February 12

1 hour ago, Two_pound said:

The whole luck situation has never sat right with me. He strung the team along in 2017 before he was put on i.r. in October. Then played in 2018 for new coach Reich. Then the stories always seemed to be changing leading up to training camp in 2019. I've always had the feeling that he just didn't want to play. Just my opinion. And then we all remember it wasn't long after the retirement Ballard was pretty adamant that Luck will never be back and Ballard has always been pretty honest and straight forward.

I don't think Luck strung along the org. in 2017. That was Irsay. They took a similar approach with Peyton as well when he was hurt.

February 12

31 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Agreed. Anyone blaming Schefter for the situation is simply deflecting.

honestly, if I were investigating the timing only portion, it really does stick to the theory that Luck didn’t tell the team for sure until sometime before the game. Odds are, he told them before or after warmups and a player in the locker room texted someone, possibly an agent who couldn’t contain themselves. It got to Schefter, who likely reached out to Lucks team and it was confirmed. Especially given that supposedly right before the game, the colts media team had sent out a request for a press conference schedule with local media, for the following day. It just all is circumstantial and we’ll never really know the truth on the timeline and honestly, it doesn’t change anything. The end result is still the same.

It does make sense that evening was when Luck told some or most of his teammates in the locker room. And it would make sense one of them or someone else in that locker room leaked it to Schefter, who confirmed and then tweeted it out.

But as far as the org. leaders, I will always have a hard time believing they didn't know well before that. Or at least know he was strongly considering it. Not saying they knew in April or whatever, but weeks before seems possible. And we know that they can keep things close to the vest.

February 12

22 hours ago, csmopar said:

Source?

It was just a rumor I saw. No idea if it was remotely true and can't find it. I only remembered it because it seemed like a weird thing to make up out of thin air and it sort of tracks with the mental dilemma that Luck was facing at that time. Don't know about him going back to Europe, but him asking the org. for more time doesn't seem too far-fetched given the gravity of the decision he was making.

February 11

4 hours ago, Indianapolis-Colts-Fan said:

If Andrew loved football enough he would have come back. He doesn’t and there’s nothing wrong with that. Water under the bridge. A lot of players have short careers due to injury. My only issue is everyone liking to pile on for “ruining” Andrew. No one ruined Andrew. The NFL is a hard hitting league, just ask Anthony.

Agree. Will people keep that same energy if AR gets hurt more?

All I see is people saying that AR needs to protect himself better, which is exactly what was said about Luck for years.

But Luck was a physical QB. And for 3 years, he was basically Superman. And then he took a bad shot to the right shoulder early in year 4 and that was that. Happens all the time in the NFL. And his other injuries were either a result of his physicality or snowboarding.

At least Luck got to year 4…AR made it to game 4 so far.

I don’t think Luck would have come back if not for those boos. That sounds like a silly thing for TY to say. Maybe he meant make

more appearances around the org.

February 11

15 hours ago, smittywerb said:

Idk man I’m 50/50 on which side of the fence I’m on.

one side, luck did kind of screw the org. It only came out because it got leaked. If he was that close to not wanting to play football before the season, that should’ve been brought to attention and the org would’ve most likely let him take time off. People have the right to voice their opinions on something so even though I personally wouldn’t have boo’ed him, I can’t get mad at people who did.

on the other side, the colts failed him. He took a beating playing for us. Management put his well being at risk. Playing football for luck probably was not a fun thing. He gave us everything he had. It was a good gesture to allow luck to keep the money, but honestly he deserved it.

With all that said, if what TY saying has any validity then honestly luck would’ve call it quits eventually. You gotta have tough skin to play football. Not only at an NFL level, but at the most important position of the entire sport. And if people booing him hurt his feelings that much, then football probably wouldn’t have ended for him in a good way anyway.

anyway, this is water under the bridge. I don’t have anything against luck and I appreciated the years he did give us. I hate grigson for not protecting him. I wouldn’t have boo’ed him personally.

There were rumors that he did ask to take time off and convalesce in Europe. But they said no.

February 8

3 hours ago, Superman said:

I really like Aiyuk and have had my eye on him. I'm just not 100% sure he's a dynamic #1 WR. Really good production on a team with Deebo, CMC, Kittle... is he putting up 1,400 yards anywhere else though? He's not a burner, not super explosive as a player, really good route runner, great hands, tough, quick, but not a downfield guy. Again, I really like him, he'd easily be our best WR, a serious upgrade to our WR corps. I just wonder if we need a more dynamic player.

It's interesting. One could argue that being surrounded by premium weapons has allowed him to thrive. But one might also argue that the weapons around him has limited his opportunity to show that he is an alpha WR1.

But he doesn't elite speed. I think he's been pretty dynamic with the ball, but everybody in SF seems to be able to do that. His 17.9 ypc, might be an outlier, but if he settles somewhere in-between that and the previous two seasons, I think he could be a guy that puts up 1,400 yds with more target volume.

And what he does do is run great routes and catch the ball. Plus, he's got those long arms that make him more like a 6'2'' or 6'3'' WR than a 6'0'' guy.

But am biased cause I have wanted him since he was at ASU. Was hoping he would be there when the Colts picked MPJ. So pairing them up, while costly, would be fun.

February 8

45 minutes ago, chad72 said:

I would rather trade for DaVante Adams since our rookie QB should be an upgrade over what they have. Straight up, 3rd rounder if we take on the contract but if they pay half or a third of it, I would part with our 2nd and 4th/5th rounders for him.

Having said that, with Pittman to potentially sign for 4 years $90 mil., I don't see this as a move Ballard would make in a WR deep draft where the pass catchers can grow with the young QB. That is the kind of move you make if you need a player or two to get to the SB and have been a division winner lately. We have to first win the division and make some noise in the playoffs before we can plan such moves.

Yep. Getting premium talent heading into their 2nd deals is one way you can flex your might with cap space. But getting aging premium talent on big contracts is another for cheap is another way. But that Adams contract is wild. I think the base salary jumps up to $35M in 2025 and 2026. Would have to restructure big-time.

February 8

5 hours ago, stitches said:

If Ballard wants to get a premier WR he needs to do what the Bills and Eagles did. Get a young one coming off his rookie deal. One that's just going into his prime so when you pay him the big money you know you are paying for his best years, rather than catching him on the downturn of his career. And Diggs fits that latter category - he's very likely going to be deteriorating over the next 4 years(already in his 30s and already some signs of decline).

So yeah... Target a great WR that a team is reluctant to pay past his rookie deal. I know there aren't many of those but that's why those GMs are being paid the big money. They need to feel the situation in other teams and strike when they get the chance.

Just some examples of players who soon will want big time extensions and it's unknown whether their team would be able/willing to pay them - Jaylen Waddle, entering 4th year of his rookie deal. Ceedee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk from the class that are entering 5th year of their rookie deals... Are the Eagles going to be able to pay Devonta Smith? So on and so forth..

Yep. Aiyuk is exactly who you target for this kind of move. Deebo is still on the books for two more years. Kittle as well. CMC isn't going anywhere.

Ballard dealt with Lynch before in the DeFo trade, so they have some rapport. Similar circumstances in a way. Close to the same pick as well (#13 vs. #15).

February 7

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

You basically missed my point. Do you think Ballard would be 54-60-1 if he had Andrew Luck at QB during his whole tenure like Grigson had the luxury of having. Some always want to bring up Ballard's record, that was my point. Had Luck not retired, Ballard's record would be way above .500 and everyone knows it that has common sense. Also, to Ballard's defense, counting his 4-12 record in his 1st season is really narrow minded considering he took over Grigson's crappy roster and Luck missed the whole season.

I do get your point. But we can only evaluate based on what HAS happened. You can take out 2017 if you like, but let's not act like Ballard's 2018 draft class (the foundation of his reputation) wasn't a direct result of it.

We don't need to get into specific aspects of the GM role. Everybody will agree that Ballard clears Grigson on many in that regard. That's not my point.

My point is that we can't ding Grigson's success for having Luck and excuse Ballard's lack of success for not having Luck. It has been said that Luck carried an entire org. for multiple years. If he can do that, what would make Ballard's success more legitimate (assuming it was a similar run).

If anything, the same grading curve you are applying to Ballard not having Luck would have to be applied to him in the opposite way if he did have Luck. But with how quick people are to credit 2018 to Ballard, that would never happen. Again, it's just a double standard.

February 7

26 minutes ago, chad72 said:

I am not sure how much more of a scapegoat he can be when all we have is our sack count to go on while a lot of other defensive metrics don't jive with that of a very good D. Odds are, defensive metrics improve because for most of them, starting with points per game, the likely direction is upwards.

If they did not fire him after this year, I won't get my hopes up for next year.

Well he can just being a scapegoat in this scenario I guess. Now that I think of it, he strikes me as more of a mid-season fire if they aren't playing well.

I really don't know why they kept him. Maybe he is good friends with Steichen. But I think he's ultimately going to take the fall for an aging defense that is going to need to be rebuilt very soon.

If you think about it, this defense has largely been the same since 2020. And it's only that recent because that was when DeFo was acquired. But the majority of impact players like DeFo (2020), Grove (2017), Franklin (2017), Speed (2019), Lewis (2018) and Moore (2018) are all from several years ago.

The only newcomers are a couple of ERs who have yet to become foundational players and some DBs who are unknowns.

I don't think we can consider this continuity to be a good thing, especially since this team has had a low ceiling for years. And it would seem to be a byproduct of philosophy (we like our guys) and some not so great drafting.

February 7

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

You post Ballard's record more than I post Homer Simpson's GIFs which I thought wasn't possible. So, you obviously think Grigson was a better GM because his record was 49-31 (52-34 Playoffs included) with 2 Division Titles, even though he had Andrew Luck healthy for 4 of those 5 years. You do realize when Ballard had Luck, we were 10-6 and won a Playoff game.

Why is Luck responsible for the success under Grigson, but not the (unfortunately short) success with Ballard?

Both GMs had to rebuild rosters. And in the small sample we have to compare, they had the same success with Luck. In his 2nd year as GM, Grigson went 11-5 and 1-1 in the playoffs with Luck at QB. In his 2nd year as GM, Ballard went 10-6 and 1-1 in the playoffs with Luck as his QB.

If Luck had stayed for Ballard's 3rd year, nothing short of a trip to the SB would have been more successful than Grigson's 3rd year with Luck as QB because that team went to the AFCCG.

We don't know what would have happened after that. The landscape of the AFC changed dramatically since Luck retired. So what could have happened is mostly just conjecture.

I don't mean to get into some debate over these two guys again. If it were up to me, neither would be the Colts GM. But this has always been such a double standard that exists throughout most of this fanbase.

February 7

43 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

Shane Steichen looks solid for the most part. My biggest issue was not firing Gus Bradley. Though I love the new D-Line coach.

I'd like to keep Minshew as a backup again if he's affordable (Richardson should play most of next season). I think we'll win 10 games and make the playoffs. I'm just very impatient and upset about last season still. I would be upset if we let Pittman hit FA. We need to be aggressive and fix weaknesses. Balard is good enough in the draft where he can sign a couple elite players and depth and fill in the rest through the draft. We don't have to get mediocre guys to fill the roster. We are past that now.

I want Brock Bowers at 15. The TE FA class is weak and Bowers would be that elite player that would help our offense that would be hard to fill anywhere else.

Part of me thinks they are giving Bradley a chance to fix the defense, but the other part of me thinks Bradley will make for a nice scapegoat if next year doesn't go great.

February 7

7 hours ago, ArmchairQB said:

Yea I understood that as I posted. It’s still not a very objective way to look at it. When you tell the average person this team is a 7 year sub .500 team most people would think they have had losing seasons every year for 7 years. So it’s a bit of a dishonest take was my point. I also don’t believe in zero sum arguments. Giving credit to Ballard for his accomplishments is not the same as blind fandom.

But assigning importance in the form of a "winning season" to two 9-8 seasons is also not very objective. The Colts are picking in the top half of the draft this year, which is not typically what a team with a winning season ends up doing. But an average person would assume a winning season was a success.

Ballard has gone from the pedestal to polarizing. At this point, I imagine you are going to have people who will defend him well beyond his tenure and people who won't change their tune even if the Colts win a SB.

February 5

5 hours ago, Trace Pyott said:

I’ve said it many times but AR reminds me of a faster version of Steve McNair. This video shows how strong he is. The defenders just bounce off of him like a grown man playing football with little kids. I think next year will be a learning year but year 3 he will set the nfl on fire.

That's some of the worst tackling you will ever see though. They almost sort of push him toward the EZ too.

In college, AR was able to run over or run away from most players. That's not the case in the NFL. And he even said he didn't realize he wasn't ready for that leap. Got him hurt twice too. This season is going to be very telling. I expect to hear about how he's in the best shape of his life and that's he added back muscle, etc.

February 2

12 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Thank you writing this up

THIS is the main problem with our defense

IMHO

Bryce Huff would be an amazing pickup

Yep. It lines up with the theory that their sack production was a bit of an outlier. Or at the very least, not indicative of a top level pass rush. And if you look at the individual parts, you can see why.

Ebukam was solid, but not exactly a game-wrecker. He will also be 29 next year, so I am not sure you can just pencil him in for 9.5 sacks again.

Paye and Dayo are decent players, but not high level ERs.

DeFo is great, but he's going to be 30.

They need a big-time addition at ER. And this offseason is actually the time to do it because Dayo will be a FA after next season, Paye could be (if they don't pick up his option) and Ebukam/DeFo will both be 30+.

February 1

11 hours ago, Nevbot said:

You actually wonder why Lewis hasn't been more impactful? It is simply because he hasn't managed to compile back to back full seasons. He has had some back luck with season enders.
Overall though he has always produced in a limited role and that is why he has always been brought back. Perhaps we should give him a bit more of a role since he has pretty much earned it.

He’s a role player who has gotten hurt a lot.

January 31

16 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I don't know if I agree with that. Peyton had to be better than Favre, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Big Ben, and Rivers who was no slouch either most of his career to win 5. I could easily argue, Peyton should have won 7 or 8. Back then, the NFL was even giving the League MVP to RBs. 2005 Shaun Alexander won League MVP, 2006 LT won League MVP, 2012 Peterson won League MVP. Peyton could have won any of those years. Peyton was winning so many that the league was just trying to find ways to give it to someone else, that is how comical it was getting.

Manning winning 7-8 MVPs would sort of prove my point.

Mahomes has won 2/6 MVPs in the league so far (2018, 2022). The seasons that he didn't we saw insane seasons from Lamar (2019) and Rodgers (2020-21)...and then this year.

In 2019 and 2020, Mahomes put up a better season than any but Manning's 2004 MVP season. The closest he got to an MVP in those years was 3rd.

And Mahomes' 2021 season was about on par with Manning's 2009 MVP season.

I just don't think we can use MVPs to decide the order of QB greats. But let's see where Mahomes finishes first.

January 31

22 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

He very well could pass Peyton, IMO not yet though. To me I give League MVPs a lot of weight is why. Some don't, but not sure why they don't because it is an individual award and who the media thinks is the best player in the league. Aaron Rodgers will always be better than Drew Brees in my mind because he has won 4 League MVPs, Brees never won 1. Both have won 1 SB.

I don't know. MVP just seems much harder to win now than before. Maybe not this past year, but Mahomes had two seasons where he didn't win MVP that would have possibly been unanimous back in the 2000s.

January 31

6 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

I could see them getting 5, 7 is a lot. Idk if reid will stick around long enough for that and you cant really find a better coach than him.

Patrick is 28, and will probably lose some mobility in his 30s like pretty much everyone does.

But I bet he retires far earlier than Brady. The ring argument will make Brady the greatest, but not the best QB.

The AFC seems more competitive now than it was during the first NE run and certainly the most recent NE run (2014-2018). When NE went to 4 SBS and won 3 from 2014-2018, here are some of the AFC teams they beat:

BAL and Flacco
IND and Luck (coached by Pagano)
HOU and Osweiler
PIT and Big Ben
TEN and Mariota
JAC and Bortles

The AFCS was basically a layup back then for NE.

Not to diminish what NE has accomplished, I just think that going forward, the competition in the AFC will make it very difficult for Mahomes to approach the number of SB appearances or rings that Brady has. Every year, he's likely going to be battling 2-3 of Lamar, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Stroud, Tua, Lawrence, etc. every playoff to get back. You also have guys like AR, Levis, as well as some talented rookies who will emerge.

Just this year, he beat Tua, Allen and Lamar, which IMO is as impressive than any run that NE made in the AFC.

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