stitches
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Posts posted by stitches
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2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
Well....
A very close friend of yours had this list of notables.... and I'll add to that...
Notables:
-Kyler Murray ahead of the pass-rushers. They seem to really believe in him
-Jonah Williams at no. 4
-Jerry Tillery at no. 7... the 2nd best interior lineman.
-Dalton Risner in the top 20
-JJ Arcega-Whiteside at 23. They really like him
-Darnell Savage in top 30!!!
-David Long from Michigan no. 33!! This is the highest I've seen him.
-Montez Sweat ranked in the 40s... this is wild. I have no idea why.
-Rashan Gary ranked 48th...
A great starting list. Here are a few more, and I was conservative.
6. Byron Murphy
24. Will Grier
29 Chase Winovich
30 Andy Isabella
35 Clelin Ferrell
37 Drew Lock
Your list is 9 deep.... I added 6 more conservatively. Is that enough?
Mine are just notables... Not all of them are things I hate about their ranking(For example it's very possible I will have Tillery about as high as they did when I post my final rankings). I leave a lot of room for difference of opinion in the range of "disagree-but-reasonable". To me Sweat in the 40s is the biggest wth moment and one that I cannot get behind... most of the rest are just things I listed that go against the grain and against what most other analysts have... some of them are also players I haven't watched so... I cannot really say(example David Long).
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9 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:
Perhaps I’m guilty of too much group think? Perhaps I get caught up in the echo chamber of popular opinion?
But this Top-50 is hard to take seriously.
I’ve said this often.... I thought they do a nice job on their NFL evaluations, but their college work, for me, leaves something to be desired....
Just sayin....
What are the things you don't like?
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Also... since we talked yesterday about Kaleb McGary and people were saying he's not a 2nd round player and nobody has him in his top 50... He's ranked 44 on Jeremiah's board.
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The thing that catches my eye is Brian Burns down to 27!!! Is it possible he's still there where we pick? Last year I thought it was insane the big ESPN guys were ranking and mocking Harold Landry that low(about the same range or even lower).... and he ended up being picked in the second round. Maybe the league is not as high on Burns as the outside world?
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4 hours ago, NFLfan said:
Ok. Glad I did not draft him at 64 or 73.
He was available in the 3rd, IIRC.
I mean you never know. I'm far from any authority on pass-rushers. I thought Solomon Thomas, Charles Harris and Noah Spence would be awesome... I thought TJ Watt is overrated... Oops!
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I just watched 4 games(Florida 2018, Wyoming 2018, Tennessee 2017, Georgia 2017) of Emanuel Hall. Hall doesn't have natural hands... you know how people say "it's not his hands, it's concentration drops" ... IMO Hall just doesn't have natural catching ability. He lets the ball get into his body way too often. He bobbles the ball way too often. I don't have his drops stats, but wouldn't be surprised if it's high.
With that said... I love the rest of his game. He has suddenness in his route running and while not polished you can see the rudiments of a very solid route runner. Explosive in and out of his breaks. Watch him beat press-man repeatedly in the Florida 2017 game. His physical profile and athleticism are impressive and you can see them on tape too... he separates through speed downfield and tracks the ball very well in the air and he does get to some highly thrown balls(Drew Lock has similar inaccuracy issues to Josh Allen from last year) with his impressive vertical leap.
He can also make people miss after the catch. He is sudden and explosive with ball in his hands. WOW.
I am way too late on Hall. He looks exquisite ... with the exception of his hands. I am not sure how high he will end up for me and how much to ding him for his questionable catching ability but the rest of his tape is very promising. Future outside receiver in the league... if he can catch enough balls to win his coach's trust.
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^Target yards added
QuoteNFL Draft: Target Yards Added for 2019 wide receiver class
A dive into advanced stats for the draft-eligible receivers
Evaluating draft-eligible wide receivers can be a tricky task, especially when looking at the numbers. College offenses are all over the place in terms of how often they throw, which can lead to a wild variance in production.
Knowing it can be tricky to isolate a receiver’s role in a college offense, I started putting together a metric called Target Yards Added to attempt just that. It’s a fairly simple metric mathematically, taking a wide receiver’s yards per target and subtracting his team’s passing yards per attempt to get an idea of what that receiver added to the offense.
Over the past few years, I’ve found Target Yards Added to be a good guideline to dig further into wide receivers. It’s not intended to be a ranking proxy — the top wide receiver in Target Yards Added doesn’t translate to being my WR1 in the draft. But it does help add some color to wide receiver production throughout the evaluation process. Let’s take a look at this year’s draft class and break down what it means.
Shout out to Sports Info Solutions, whose data made this significantly easier to put together than in years past. Should also note some players like Keelan Doss of UC Davis are not included because FCS schools are still in the statistical stone age when it comes to things like targets.
...[read more on the link above]
Emanuel Hall is a player I need to do more work on, but the little I've seen is very impressive.
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@chad72 I am not Denver. I think twfish is.
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39 minutes ago, NFLfan said:
Hi @stitches ,
Now that I am done selecting, I wondered what you thought of someone that I wanted to draft but passed on. His name is Oshane Ximines from Old Dominion. What do you think of him?
Anyway, I drafted the following prospects for the Vikes:
#32 Dalton Risner
#50 Taylor Rapp
#64 Elgton Jenkins
#73 D'Andre Walker, EDGE, Georgia
#81 J. J. Arcega-Whiteside
18th pick of 4th round: Dawson Knox, TE, Mississippi
Is he still available? I think in the 4th the value is probably OK. I'm generally not as impressed with him as a lot of draft people seem to be. I've seen him ranked in the top 50, which IMO is insane.
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4 minutes ago, chad72 said:
Well said. For this reason, Riley Ridley intrigues me with his potential that has everything you want with his route breaks and the strength to beat press coverage. He can be coached to be a complete WR, even better than his brother Calvin Ridley, IMO.
Ridley's route running is so damn impressive. I don't know what to do with him and his combine testing. It was so disappointing. I was ready to put him in R1 and then ... this:
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/riley-ridley
Yuck! This is ugly. I think at the end I will swallow my revulsion and get him in the 2nd round range.
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7 minutes ago, chad72 said:
He got way too many free releases where they played off him consistently, and Georgia was leading the game cushily that they were mainly playing prevent D, IMO. I am not going to get carried away with it.
Let us hold off on the Tyreek and TY comparisons.
Just for the record, when I make draft to NFL comparisons I'm doing a style/type comparison, NOT end product expectation comparison. When I say Isabella is TY/Tyreek type... I am not saying I expect him to be 1300 yards+ receiver on a yearly basis. If I did, I'd be picking him in the top 5, not in the 30s or 40s, where he's most likely to end up for me on my board.
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9 minutes ago, #12. said:
I like Isabella. I would consider him at 59, too. From our perspective, if you traded down and got another pick, he's someone I would be even more interested in.
That said, through two years of Ballard and one of Reich, I couldn't tell you what they are looking for in wideouts.
IMO for as good as Ballard has been with his evaluations both in FA and in the draft, his WR evaluations so far have been sketchy. He's missed on most of the ones he's signed/drafted(Aiken, Grant, Fountain... we don't know about Cain yet). He's on the record saying how hard scouting WR coming from the draft is because there aren't many snaps where they face physical press-coverage so we don't really know how they will fare against that type of defense which is more prevalent in the league. I guess samples are way too small so far to make any conclusions...
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1 minute ago, chad72 said:
I am not sure how good he is against physical CBs, given the competition he has faced. Hey, Jordy Nelson came out of Kansas State, could catch everything thrown his way and Andy could very well follow along those lines of underrated WRs that produce at the next level.
I would take him with 59, just not earlier, but that is just me.
He went for 220 yards and 2 TDs vs Georgia
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@#12. I haven't finished my board, but when it's said and done he will probably be somewhere between 34 and 59 for me.
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12 minutes ago, chad72 said:
Oh snap, Jerry Tillery is too high!!!
Also, Andy Isabella and Darnell Savage cracked the Top 50. I am fine with Savage but Isabella???
Why? Isabella is good and dynamic. He's drawing Tyreek Hill and TY Hilton comparisons. He can win both on the inside and on the outside and he's got legit burner speed to stretch the field.
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3 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:
Couldn’t agree more. I’d like to see them actually factor in scouting when they do their prospect rankings instead of just listing them in order according to their computer generated player grade. They do the same thing with their mock drafts too.
They don't list them according to their computer generated player grade.
First the grades are done by people who watch the film snap by snap and they watch all the snaps. In a way this is the ultimate scouting. They also don't order the players strictly based on the grades, there are things they take into account like level of competition, what kind of snaps that grade was generated by, etc. They do try to project... but Superman is right, they do put too much emphasis on what the player is now vs what he can become. My criticism of their grading is that they under-emphasize splash plays and overemphasize not-losing snaps.
One example of them trying to project rather than rely on their grading is Metcalf for example. Here are their grades of the WRs and their ranking of the WRs. As you can see it's not based purely on their grades:
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6 minutes ago, Superman said:
Chris Jones stands out. But they also had Andrew Billings really high, which is questionable.
They had both Grady Jarrett and Trey Flowers as 1st rounders in their draft class.
BTW they are comparing Jerry Tillery to Chris Jones.
There will always be hits and misses, the question is over a big enough sample, how they do compared to average NFL team... or even to the best of them.
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12 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:
That’s still too early. He sounds like a 4th round or later prospect. Miller seems to be the only one that even thinks he’s a day 2 guy. I’d rather them pass and get Max Sharping in the 4th. He’s got the same floor and is probably a better athlete.
McGary tested extremely well in the combine even for a tackle. Better than Sharping in every single test except for the bench press...
Look at his web:
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/kaleb-mcgary
The problem is his arms are kind of short... that didn't stop them from putting Braden Smith at tackle, though... so... I don't know.
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11 minutes ago, Superman said:
They overrate their college grading and struggle with projections, but that's typical. They have some clear wins over the years.
The thing they've been reiterating is that they truly believe in their DL projections. They say those project best from college grading to the NFL. That's where their best hits have been too...
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https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pffs-top-50-big-board-for-the-2019-nfl-draft
QuotePFF's Top-50 Big Board for the 2019 NFL Draft
Pro Football Focus’ Top-50 Big Board for the 2019 NFL Draft is live! PFF’s team of draft analysts, led by Steve Palazzolo and Mike Renner, have put together their top-50 prospects now that we’re officially one day into the month of April.
1. QB KYLER MURRAY, OKLAHOMA
Murray was the highest-graded QB in college football this past season. We haven’t seen a quarterback that is as dangerous with both his arm and legs since Russell Wilson.
2. EDGE NICK BOSA, OHIO STATE
Bosa had a higher pass-rush win rate as a true freshman than Brian Burns, Clelin Ferrell and Jachai Polite had this past season.
3. DI QUINNEN WILLIAMS, ALABAMA
Williams earned the highest grade we’ve ever given to a college interior defender (96.0) in his lone season as a starter at Alabama.
4. OT JONAH WILLIAMS, ALABAMA
The Alabama left tackle was the second highest-graded tackle in the nation despite facing stout SEC competition and allowed only 12 pressures.
5. EDGE JOSH ALLEN, KENTUCKY
Allen had far and away the highest pass-rushing grade of any college edge defender this past season at 94.3.
6. CB BYRON MURPHY, WASHINGTON
A 47.7% completion percentage against and 17 forced incompletions made Murphy the highest-graded corner in the country this past year.
7. DI JERRY TILLERY, NOTRE DAME
Tillery tied Quinnen Williams for the highest pass-rushing grade among interior defenders in college football. Tillery’s sack totals don’t tell the whole story as he was a dominant week in and week out.
8. DI JEFFERY SIMMONS, MISSISSIPPI STATE
He tore his ACL but did it so early in the process that he could still play as a rookie. Simmons had a run-defense and pass-rushing grade over 90.0 this past season.
9. CB GREEDY WILLIAMS, LSU
His sophomore campaign wasn’t quite as dominant as his freshman season, but he still only allowed 27 of his 74 targets to be completed.
10. QB DWAYNE HASKINS, OHIO STATE
Haskins certainly improved as the season went on, but his 84.9 passing grade leaves us with some reservations.
11. DI ED OLIVER, HOUSTON
His pass-rushing finally came around with a 90.8 grade this past season, but considering his size and the competition he was facing, he still has a ways to go.
12. LB DEVIN WHITE, LSU
No linebacker in college football had a higher grade in coverage than White’s 91.6 last season. His freakish athleticism suggests it was no fluke.
13. OT ANDRE DILLARD, WASHINGTON STATE
Dillard had the highest pass protection grade of any starting tackle in the country at 94.0 this past season.
14. EDGE BRIAN BURNS, FLORIDA STATE
Burns racked up the most pressures of any Power-5 defender in the country last year with 69.
15. OT JAWAAN TAYLOR, FLORIDA
Taylor came into his own on the right side for Florida this past season and finished with the third-highest run-blocking grade among starting Power-5 tackles.
16. CB DEANDRE BAKER, GEORGIA
Baker has posted back-to-back 90.0-plus graded seasons in coverage. This past year, he allowed all of 10 first downs all season and no touchdowns.
17. WR D.K. METCALF, OLE MISS
Metcalf’s numbers aren’t anything special, but his physical traits and high-end plays are promising.
18. LB DEVIN BUSH, MICHIGAN
Bush can be a weapon as a blitzer in the right scheme. He had top-five pass-rushing grades among off-ball linebackers each of the past two seasons.
19. OT DALTON RISNER, KANSAS STATE
Risner started all four seasons at Kansas State and his career low grade was 87.9 overall.
20. WR A.J. BROWN, OLE MISS
Brown was the definition of a complete receiver for Ole Miss. He forced 17 broken tackles, had 34 explosive plays and only dropped five passes on 90 catchable.
21. TE T.J. HOCKENSON, IOWA
Hockenson had the second-highest receiving grade among tight ends in college football this past year, dropping one pass on 51 catchable targets.
22. OT CODY FORD, OKLAHOMA
In Ford’s lone season as a starter, he allowed all of seven pressures all season long and didn’t allow a sack until the playoffs.
23. WR J.J. ARCEGA-WHITESIDE, STANFORD
Arcega-Whiteside led the entire draft class with 19 contested catches this past season on only 32 contested opportunities.
24. QB WILL GRIER, WEST VIRGINIA
Grier tied Drew Lock for the NCAA lead with 33 big-time throws and has the second-best best passing grade behind Kyler Murray.
25.DI CHRISTIAN WILKINS, CLEMSON
Wilkins was top three in both run-defense and pass-rushing grade among interior players this past season.
26. C ELGTON JENKINS, MISSISSIPPI STATE
The Mississippi State center allowed all of five pressures this past season on 369 pass-blocking snaps.
27. S NASIR ADDERLEY, DELAWARE
Adderly earned a 90.3 overall grade with Delaware a year ago, and his 89.9 2018 coverage grades leads all draft-eligible safeties.
28. S DARNELL SAVAGE, MARYLAND
Savage has back-to-back seasons with grades over 86.0 overall. He’s a missile around the line of scrimmage, laying some impressive hits in the flat.
29. EDGE CHASE WINOVICH, MICHIGAN
Winovich is coming off back to back seasons with grades over 90 overall – the only such qualifying power-5 player in the draft class that can boast that.
30. WR ANDY ISABELLA, MASSACHUSETTS
Isabella was the highest-graded wide receiver in the country, racking up 1,696 yards, including 219 against Georgia.
31. WR MARQUISE BROWN, OKLAHOMA
Brown was a threat to take it to the house every time he touched the ball. He broke 17 tackles on 77 catches and scored 10 touchdowns.
32. DI DEXTER LAWRENCE, CLEMSON
Nose tackles of 340-plus pounds are going the way of the Dodo in the NFL, but Lawrence is a pretty ridiculous athlete for his size. He had the 12th best pass-rushing grade among interior players in college football.
33. CB DAVID LONG, MICHIGAN
Long allowed all of 18 catches on 595 coverage snaps in his entire college career at Michigan
34. OT GREG LITTLE, OLE MISS
Over the past two seasons, Little allowed all of 26 total pressures on 993 pass-blocking snaps.
35. EDGE CLELIN FERRELL, CLEMSON
Ferrell racked up 14 sacks and 14 hits on the season and has ideal build to fit in any scheme.
36. CB AMANI ORUWARIYE, PENN STATE
Oruwariye had the best week of any corner at the Senior Bowl, notching the highest win rate among all defenders in the one-on-ones.
37. QB DREW LOCK, MISSOURI
Lock paired an NCAA leading 33 big-time throws with only six turnover-worthy plays as a senior.
38. S TAYLOR RAPP, WASHINGTON
Rapp was one of the most assignment-sure safeties in the country this past season and missed all of two tackles on 56 attempts.
39. CB JUSTIN LAYNE, MICHIGAN STATE
Layne’s 89.5 coverage grade last year was ninth best among Power-5 corners in the nation. He also dabbled at receiver where he took 36 snaps this past season.
40. EDGE ZACH ALLEN, BOSTON COLLEGE
Allen was one of the best run defenders in college football in 2017 before a 90.3 pass-rushing grade this past season. He was an ironman for BC, playing 107 snaps against Wake Forest this past season.
41. C GARRETT BRADBURY, NC STATE
Bradbury was a top-five graded center each of the past two seasons and the highest-graded Power-5 center in this draft class both years as well.
42. WR HAKEEM BUTLER, IOWA STATE
Butler’s size (6-foot-5, 227 pounds) might suggest a possession receiver, but he had more receptions 20-plus yards downfield (19) than anyone in the draft class.
43. TE NOAH FANT, IOWA
Fant is the most freakishly athletic tight end in this draft class, but his inconsistent hands are still a concern. He’s dropped 11 passes on 80 catchable the past two seasons.
44. S AMANI HOOKER, IOWA
Hooker’s 91.1 coverage grade last season was the second-highest of any defensive back in the country.
45. CB JULIAN LOVE, NOTRE DAME
Love’s 21 forced incompletions were the sixth-most in college football last season and his 14 coverage stops ranked 10th.
46. EDGE MONTEZ SWEAT, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Sweat’s 19.1% pressure percentage was top 10 among edge defenders in the draft class and the third highest in the SEC last season.
47. DI KHALEN SAUNDERS, WESTERN ILLINOIS
Saunders moves like an edge and even played there at times for Western Illinois. He went to the Senior Bowl and had the second-highest win rate among interior players in the one-on-ones.
48. DI RASHAN GARY, MICHIGAN
Gary’s production has yet to catch up to his freakish athleticism. He earned a 68.3 pass-rushing grade this past season.
49. S CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON, FLORIDA
Gardner-Johnson is perfect for the slot/safety hybrid role in today’s NFL. He led all secondary players with 22 coverage stops this past season.
50. OT MAX SCHARPING, NORTHERN ILLINOIS
The four-year starter had pass protection grades above 87.0 every season of his career.
Notables:
-Kyler Murray ahead of the pass-rushers. They seem to really believe in him
-Jonah Williams at no. 4
-Jerry Tillery at no. 7... the 2nd best interior lineman.
-Dalton Risner in the top 20
-JJ Arcega-Whiteside at 23. They really like him
-Darnell Savage in top 30!!!
-David Long from Michigan no. 33!! This is the highest I've seen him.
-Montez Sweat ranked in the 40s... this is wild. I have no idea why.
-Rashan Gary ranked 48th...
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Colts have shown a lot of interest in Memphis LB Curtis Akins, according to the player himself:
Quote“The Indianapolis Colts have shown me a lot of interest,” Akins said after working with their coaches during much of Wednesday’s drills. “Their linebackers’ coach said I’d be a great fit in their room and that they brought four of their people down to come and watch me.”
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I like Lodge too... I thought he had some spectacular catches in college and he ran the most expansive route tree from all of Ole Miss' receivers(not that this means much because AJ Brown was in the slot a ton and Metcalf ran 3 routes his whole career. I'm shocked how much his stock has dropped... IMO he's better than 5th or 6th round receiver.
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1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:
Potential first rounder? Yeah hard pass. I know Castonzo is a FA in 2020 but we shouldn’t take a developmental LT that early. I also don’t think Kaleb is going that high. He’s the 5th or 6th best OT on most boards.
1 hour ago, Boiler_Colt said:I don't think this guy is a LT. From all that I've heard he's a RT that may have to play guard in the NFL. I like him as a prospect but I just don't see how he fits with the Colts, especially if you have to take him early.
Don't get stuck on the 1st rounder thing, guys. It might not be the 1st rounder... but lets say he falls to 59 or 90. If this happens I would almost expect us to take him.
Boiler_Colt, you are right about him not having experience at LT, but Ballard has stated multiple times that he wants the two lines to be 2-deep at every position. Maybe they think he has the versatility to play both guard and RT... this is a huge plus and I wouldn't rule him out just because he doesn't fit the perceived LT need going forward. Maybe Ballard extends Castonzo and McGary(or Little or Dillard or whoever OLineman we might select) becomes part of the desired depth of the line. Injuries happen all the time. If Ballard truly believes in what he preaches(and I have no reason not to believe that he does). I see no reason why he wouldn't make such a pick sometime on day 2.
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He was available in the 3rd,
PFF's Top-50 Big Board for the 2019 NFL Draft
in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk
Posted
Yes... Tillery is one of the best pass-rushers in this draft... not just interior... pass-rushers period. We just don't have anything close to it as a pass-rushing talent right now(well, except for Houston, but he's not a long-term investment for this team). I value pass-rush more than run-defense... by a decent margin so I will always choose the exceptional pass-rush ahead of more well-rounded players that don't do as well in pass-rush situations. I like Quinnen and Oliver better than him and I like Simmons better than him, but Simmons is injured and has red-flag that I don't know how to evaluate because I don't have the info. I don't think anybody else from this draft class is a better prospect than Tillery on the interior. And this is NOT a knock on the other players in the class.. I just like Tillery this much.