masterlock

How could they make an assessment one way or another if we assume the QB they draft will have just one year of experience come 2024? Josh Allen, for example, didn't get really good until his 3rd year. Same for Jalen Hurts. If you're drafting a QB in the first round, and you're already in the market for a QB the following year, then you probably wasted a high pick.

So you think the Colts won't select a quarterback? Or you think they'll select one and then give up on him after 1 year?

You would need to define "success" based on data. (see below) There have been various statistical analyses done. For example, the Draft Network published an analysis that looked at bust rate of QBs from 2000 through 2020. According to this analysis, the hit rate for drafting a successful quarterback in rounds 2 - 7 is around 10 percent. The bust rate for 1st rounders, regardless of position, is very much correlated to draft position, with the bust rate being 40% for the first-overall pick, and well over 50% for picks 2 - 32. Someone named Warren Ludford published a few excellent analyses (here and here), drawing on historical data from Pro Football Reference that showed only around 8% of players really make much of a difference beyond replacement value. So yes, the "experts" are wrong most of the time.

The people who do this for a living are wrong most of the time.

Gotcha. But then, couldn't the same be said for Young or Stroud, in terms of the talent around them?

Stetson Bennet looks pretty dynamic, and he has good numbers. I'm not sure why he isn't ranked higher. Maybe size?

The most frequent margin of victory in the NFL is 3 points. "Premier" or not, kicker is one of the most impactful positions, as it directly contributes to scoring and wins/losses. What they gave him is in line with the market for elite kickers. Good signing.

If they want Bryce Young, then I think they're pretty much going to have to move to #1 to guarantee no-one leapfrogs them. Otherwise, I think they can move up to No. 3 to get either Stroud or Levis, as I think AR will be there at #4. I was originally in favor of drafting Levis, but upon further reflection, I think Bryce Young just has the "it" factor, and is worth taking a chance on. He's basically a smaller version of Mahomes. I suspect the Colts see it that way too, since he ticks off everything on their wish list. So I'm guessing they'll trade to #1. If the Bears are really in love with Anderson, then I wonder if they could trade down to #4, then trade up to #3.

We can call him mobile if you prefer. I'm not sure there's a clear line between mobile and "dual threat". In my mind, a dual threat is just someone who can make things happen as a runner when the passing game breaks down. But if the standard is that you have to be "dangerous" at both, then I think there are very few dual threats in the league, period. You're basically looking at Hurts, Allen, Jackson, and MAYBE a couple others. Someone like Fields, for example, is a very capable runner, but has just OK passing stats, and is definitely nowhere near the passer that Mahomes is. Does that mean that Fields is not a dual threat because he's not an elite passer? The standard goes both ways.

Not all "dual threats" are created equal. Mahomes, Hurts, Fields (and Young) are all dual threats but very different quarterbacks. Irsay's comments don't preclude him liking some other "dual threat", like Levis. He can admire one QB or another and at the same time not think that QB is the right fit for the Colts.

When it comes to the franchise quarterback, Irsay is the one who has to really want Fields. My feeling is that Fields' style doesn't map onto the Colts' vision for the future. Maybe I'm wrong, We'll see.

He's basically had one good year. Will he continue on that next season? Will he regress? No, I wouldn't take him. He hasn't really established himself on a consistent year-to-year basis.

I think Ballard prioritizes traits over production, which would mean taking Levis over Stroud or Young.

Nelson's not going anywhere. I also doubt Bucker is going anywhere.

Given the quarterback carousel over the last 5 years, the rarity of having a top-4 pick, the pressing need for a franchise QB, the fact that Ballard's days are numbered, and Irsay's strong desire to not suck, I highly doubt the Colts won't take one of the top-3 quarterbacks available. And if they do, I really don't see them letting him sit on the sidelines. If the Colts get Levis, does anyone see him sitting on the sidelines? That's just not going to happen.

I'm not so sure about that. Levis' detractors want to dismiss the "inconvenient truth" that he simply didn't have the surrounding cast at UK. But when you watch the tape, so many times he just doesn't have open receivers to throw to. This was a constant theme in 2022. And he was one of the most pressured quarterbacks in college football. IMO, Levis has the best overall COMBINATION of skills and traits--size, athleticism, passing skills (throwing motion, touch, arm strength, throwing his receivers open, etc.). He really only needs to improve in one area: turnovers. There's no reason to think he can't do that with proper coaching. He's THE prototypical QB and the safest pick IMO, and I'd be excited if the Colts got him.

I see.

Well, it says a "bevy" of draft picks, and I didn't see anything that ruled out future picks.

I REALLY hope they don't do that.

I don't think so either. But can he go somewhere between 4-10? I think so. If you want him, and have the 4th pick, then I'd be a little concerned about trading down.

I don't know how long he'll last past the 4th pick, if he even makes it that far. If Stroud doesn't declare, then that bumps Richardson's draft stock. Even if Stroud declares, I can easily see a QB-needy team (other than the Colts) trading with CHI for the 1st pick and taking him. And since Ballard is probably not going to want Young (due to size), that leaves Levis and Richardson, and I don't see either falling out of the top-10, so trading down once, let alone twice, probably isn't going to happen.

Richardson might be the best pure athlete in the draft. He's basically a bigger, stronger version of Lamar, but without the accuracy. Some scouting types attribute his poor accuracy to mechanics. If that's true then it's the type of thing that can be corrected through coaching, so he could wind up being quite the steal. Or not.

Out of all the QB comparisons, you pick Brissett? Not Lamar? Not Fields? Interesting. From what I've seen of him, he's every bit the athlete and runner/scrambler/improviser that Lamar is. He's flat-out dangerous. IF--and I know this is a big 'if'--he can improve his accuracy and mental processing at the NFL level, he'll be a terror for opposing defenses.

I don't see Ballard moving up either, and I don't think any of the quarterbacks in this year's draft would compel Irsay to override him. This isn't an Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence kind of year, where you have an opportunity to grab a generational prospect. If you could somehow meld the top-3 prospects into a single player, then yes. My feeling is that Young's size is going to be an issue for Ballard, given that he favors players who are both big and athletic. Young is athletic to be sure, but not big. So if Stroud and Levis are off the board before the Colts pick, then I wouldn't be surprised if they traded down, and grabbed someone like Richardson, Duggan, or even Hooker in the 3rd. I'd be cool if they waited until the 3rd to get Jaren Hall of BYU. I think he's a electric player. But that's probably not going to happen.

So who do you like? Who should the Colts go after?