MacDee1975
-
Posts
1,220 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Gallery
Events
Blogs
Posts posted by MacDee1975
-
-
1 hour ago, Pacergeek said:
On paper, our CB position is horrible. The starters are two UDFA's with minimal experience. Quincy Wilson, whom was drafted to be starting CB, had a bad Rookie season and is not ready to start in year 2. Melvin's contract was only 1 year for $6.5 million. With all the money Ballard had available, how could he not afford to match or beat this deal? Knowing Wilson was not ready to be a starter, it doesn't make any sense to let the team's top CB walk away. If we had a legitimate pass rush, we could probably get away with mediocre CB's. The Colts have no pass rush, and our CB's will get torched. I would argue the CB position was in better shape before Ballard was hired. I know it's blasphemy to criticize Ballard, but it looks like he has really botched the CB position.
Actually, on paper the cb position is solid. A second rounder, a fourth rounder, a fifth rounder, and a sixth rounder. On paper, you could do much worse.
-
3 hours ago, Hoose said:
You're kidding me.
Apparently about 3 dozen people in this thread alone aren't aware.
-
On 8/4/2018 at 4:05 PM, stitches said:
I don't know why you would assume it's garbage in garbage out formula. Those are smart people who do statistical regression modeling for their livelihood and people that largely know what they are doing. All 32 teams pay for their services.
I am not certain if this specific formula has been successful in the past(or if it has been used in the past?). In their latest podcast they said last year was the first time they used data modeling(in addition to their film grades) to try to project different game outcomes, over/unders, picking against the spread, picking against the total, etc.
In their lock picks against the spread they went 14-6 last year and they went 57% in all of their bets against the spread and on totals. They also entered a fivethirtyeight competition against over 20 000 other people/organizations/formulas and they finished 26th for the season. And this was on their first try with the formula. Again, I reiterate - those are not amateurs that simply throw around numbers for the heck of it or pull numbers out of their butt.
I cannot confirm that, but from the discussion in their latest podcast it seems like they are using the formula(or some derivative/development of it) that had those success rates above in order to build their projections for this coming season(the ones that give all 4 teams projections between 7.3 and 8.1).
I don't get your disbelief. What is hard to stomach in those projections? I actually think they are extremely reasonable. Even the by the eye test, without any calculations or advanced analytics, I think this is one of the closest divisions in the NFL and I think the teams are close. Texans being last "by good margin" is actually not that good of a margin. It's 0.8 wins between them. It's like... 13% difference between the first and last. This is NOT a big margin. For example the margin between first(Atlanta) and last(Tampa Bay) in the NFC South is 40% vs 5%. Not every division is projected as close as ours. It just happens that their numbers come out close for all 4 teams.
Colts second best? Well... yah... by like.... 0.05 wins over TEN and by 0.4 over the Texans... this is nothing. And again... I don't see what you think is so unbelievable about it? When Luck is healthy(seems like that's what they assume), the Colts have never had a season under 8 wins. What's so shocking for their projection to come out at 7.5-7.7 or whatever in that range the formula is spitting out?
Texans last? Yah... at 7.3... that's 3+ more wins than last year. Watson was due for regression, they have the worst offensive line in football and their CBs are not great eitehr. There are things in Watson's statistical performance that were unsustainable last year. Just an example - his receivers had only 2 drops for the 7 games he played. This is something he has no control over and this is something that's largely random. If you just give him the league average drop rate his QB rating drops by 10 points. It's also worth pointing out that even while they had Watt and Watson on their roster and while Watson was on fire and playing like a man possessed, they still were not winning games... they were still 3-4 while Watson was playing way over his head.
Excellent points that nobody ever seems to bring up. Watson is in no way, shape or form an established entity. He has a sample size of less than half an NFL season, against garbage defenses, where nobody was gameplanning for him. Not to mention he has now had 2 serious knee injuries before the age of 23. He is as much a wild card as anyone else going into next season.
-
Wells is not in position to trade Swoope, so his opinion does not make Swoope a trade candidate.
Only if Chris Ballard wants to trade him, would Swoope become a trade candidate.
-
1 hour ago, NewEra said:
Practice how you play. If you're going to get injured in practice. You're going to get injured in a game
Exactly. If these guys are getting hurt during these practices, then certainly they wouldn't make it thru the season anyways.
-
1
-
-
15 minutes ago, Pacergeek said:
Quincy couldn't see the field on the NFL's 31st ranked defense. Let that sink in
Agreed. And for that reason, I think he should be cut. So should Basham, Walker & Stewart.....who also very rarely saw the field last year.
-
2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:
The write-ups I've read here on Wilson on this site and other Colts sites are that Wilson is mostly playing very well and should/could be viewed as our CB1.
Quincy Wilson is NOT getting cut, even if he doesn't start. IMO, that is NOT happening.
He'll be interesting to watch through pre-season.
Exactly. And if you listen to the numerous Colts beat reporters that JMV has on almost on a daily basis, they all say the same thing. So to the guy in this thread who said Wilson is not having a good camp.....where in the world are you hearing that, because i've heard nothing but the exact opposite.
-
1
-
-
18 hours ago, csmopar said:
Bye. My theory is no where near as bad as the ones claiming Luck is toast. So don't let the door hit you in the butt on the way out. Won't see any tears from me.
Anyone who proclaimed Luck's career was over looks like a complete fool now. So how do you think you look proclaiming a guy's career as being over, who has an injury approximately 1/1000 as bad as Luck had?
-
15 hours ago, richard pallo said:
I hope you're right. Ballard's quote was pretty direct. " We've asked him to play RT." Not to fill in or help us at RT. Costanzo, Nelson, Kelly, even Mewhort were high OL draft picks and moved right into there best position. No trying different positions. Maybe they think he could be a starting RT. We shall see I guess.
Right. What he did not say is "We've moved him to RT permanently".
-
I think his career is over.
-
32 minutes ago, csmopar said:
Hate to say this but AC is done. I'll be surprised if he's on the team this time next year
Hate to say this, but posts like this will make me surprised if i'm on this message board this time next year. Or even this time tomorrow.
-
3
-
2
-
-
5 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:
I love that he's taking ownership of that, but at the same time, how on earth could he have known that we were going to be down to our 4th string center by week 5?
Agreed.
But i'd rather have a guy who's addresses a need too late, but does so capably (hopefully Ballard) than a guy who sees a need, and is completely and utterly incompetent in his attempt to fill it (Grigson).
-
Look for Nelson to be bumped to the bench, now that Vujno is ready for action. I almost feel sorry for all the opposing DLs, knowing they'll be staring across that stud every Sunday.
-
11 hours ago, Scott Pennock said:
Skai is 6'2" and 230 lbs.....not sure why everyone is saying he's too small?
Amen.
Anytime someone is 1/2 inch and 5 pounds below what is considered "ideal", people have this tendency to label them as "small". Drives me insane.
-
5 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:
I hate profootballtalk (especially Florio) so I'm going to play devils' advocate.
How many draft picks from the '13 and '14 drafts are still on the other 31 teams in the NFL?
How many other teams have zero of their picks from those drafts still on the team?
Do ANY teams have ALL of their draft picks from the '13 or '14 draft still on the team?
Some perspective would be nice, but profootballtalk usually tells a one-sided story...
Except not only are Grigson's picks from those 2 years not on the team.....almost all of them aren't even in the league at all.
-
Those 2 drafts, plus these brilliant early round picks from 2015/2016:
1) Phillip Dorsett
2) TJ Green
3) D'Joun Smith
3) LeRaven Clark
-
3
-
-
32 minutes ago, sreeb2deeni said:
Appreciate the thorough analysis CR.
Hope you a dictation app. Or you're headed for carpal tunnel syndrome.
I joke because I still type at a rate of about 13 words per minute.
You do know that he's copying / pasting this analysis from the linked article, right?
-
I won't be labeling this OL as anything until I see how they perform in actual NFL regualar season games.
-
6 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:
I would say this is a major concern...... for our defense....
This is a much simpler defense, and you would expect that the defense would be AHEAD of the offense (at this point) due to the simplicity.
This offense has new RBs, New WRs, a rusty QB, 3 new OL, new TE
It SHOULD be behind...... but ufortunately, I think our defense is that bad
Man.... I have to get off the caffiene.....
Yeah, there is nothing "new" going on with the defense either, is there? Only the offense.
-
5 minutes ago, TKnight24 said:
Except they don't need to plug anyone in for Mewhort, because he wasn't going to be a starter.
-
Speaking of Warren Sapp......I wonder if this Warren Sharp is any relation?
-
4 minutes ago, PhillyCOLTSfan said:
Losing t.y would be big
Disagree. Vukovich is the guy we absolutely can't lose.
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, CR91 said:
Not a good start reece
I think they should cut him today.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, King Colt said:
On NFL Network today. July 26 Michael Irvin & Dan Hellie said "Luck still has some pain in his shoulder." Later, Luck himself said, "I have soreness." He also said "...the pain is way down." So fans what does this mean? The end of Luck and ten years of losing season for the Colts or does it mean................... absolutely nothing, all athletes have pain and soreness? Keep in mind, the first thing all media people ask #12 is how is his shoulder and all credit to him for not blowing them off having answered that stupid question way too many times. Luck also said he has cut it lose when asked and he is rusty (really, after a year and half of nothing?!) He added he is working on his body movement ( I assume meaning to avoid rushers).
Get excited. Get very excited! Let the good times roll.
Yes. That is exactly what this means.
How did you like the play calling?
in Colts Football
Posted
Pagano is and always will be way better at fervently clapping his hands than Reich could ever dream of being, so he has that going for him, which is nice.